yep, may explain why the models were so off

Yeah that might be a little low by the time this has run its course

We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2...razer/12146616

For those pinning their hopes on a COVID-19 vaccine to return life to normal, an Australian expert in vaccine development has a reality check — it probably won't happen soon.

The reality is that this particular coronavirus is posing challenges that scientists haven't dealt with before, according to Ian Frazer from the University of Queensland.

Professor Frazer was involved in the successful development of the vaccine for the human papilloma virus which causes cervical cancer — a vaccine which took years of work to develop.

He said the challenge is that coronaviruses have historically been hard to make safe vaccines for, partly because the virus infects the upper respiratory tract, which our immune system isn't great at protecting.

And while we have vaccines for seasonal influenza, HPV and other diseases, creating a new vaccine isn't as simple as taking an existing one and swapping the viruses, said Larisa Labzin, an immunologist from the University of Queensland.

"For each virus or different bacterium that causes a disease, we need a different vaccine because the immune response that's mounted is different," Dr Labzin told ABC Science.

The challenge of respiratory infections
There are several reasons why our upper respiratory tract is a hard area to target a vaccine.

"It's a separate immune system, if you like, which isn't easily accessible by vaccine technology," Professor Frazer told the Health Report.

Despite your upper respiratory tract feeling very much like it's inside your body, it's effectively considered an external surface for the purposes of immunisation.

"It's a bit like trying to get a vaccine to kill a virus on the surface of your skin."

...continues

COVID-19 Is A Man-Made Virus: HIV-Discoverer Says "Could Only Have Been Created In A Lab:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/cov...en-created-lab

This isn't the tinfoil nutter thread brah

Another move towards check mate for the paniccelshttps://spectator.us/stanford-study-...read-realized/

Thanks to them we will now have no small businesses left and 15% unemployment yay

"Adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity the results suggest that 2.8 percent of people in the county had already had the virus. "

Sweet, that would put that CA county at 1/25th of the way to herd immunity. Nice

Researchers have already looked at the genome of the virus. All this crap about it being man-made is merely media fanning the flames for clicks

If anything, maybe a natural virus was being studied in the Wuhan lab and some type of accident allowed it to escape. But even that seems unlikely

It also adjusts the exponential 3.4% CFR to 0.068% if the number of cases is 50x higher.

The seasonal flu is about the same. Should we expect seasonal quarantines now? Or should we go back to fukken normal and tell high risk portions of the population to exercise caution until a vaccine?

You gotta stop pretending this is in any way comparable to the seasonal flu.

It's not.


From that article:

"If only a small percentage of the population have had the virus, then it might be worth continuing with lockdown policies"

"A team from Stanford University and other colleges recruited volunteers in Santa Clara County via ******** adverts and produced a sample of 3,000 representatives of the county as a whole. They were then invited for blood tests to detect the presence of antibodies to the virus. The result was positive in 1.5 percent of cases."

The fact that NY hospitals got overwhelmed should be a clear enough fact that this isn't like the seasonal flu.

Fortunately, at my place, we're actually discharging more patients than admitting, so that's a clear sign that we've passed the peak here.

We'd really probably be doing something similar on a seasonal basis if there were different circumstances around the flu. If there wasn't some level of existing herd immunity to new seasonal influenza strains, or if we didn't have effective vaccines that are pushed hard onto the general population. It's not like we just let Influenza go in dry on the world every year, the vaccination drives alone are massive concerted efforts.


I seriously hope for some good news about the overall spread of this thing, like it actually being 50x more widespread than we currently believe. I'm about ready for life to return to normal here.

You'd be shocked how many people don't believe that NY hospitals were overwhelmed.

...while simultaneously discounting the cancellation of so many "non essential" (which includes some rather important stuff) surgeries and procedures as well as, well, the lockdowns putting giant damper on the spread.

I mean what's 34,000 dead in the US in 3 weeks? That's certainly not a big deal. /s

And 16k of that in NY alone. That’s what.. 45-50k hospitalizations?

I think people just assume hospitals are usually empty so we always have 100% of capacity available.

NPR news clip this AM had the same reporter bashing Trump in a sequence timeline with audio clips and directly rolled into a happy, questionable tone about how COVID-19 could get into our tap water and sewage.

Even at the .000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance, wut in the actual fuk?If we've had a month, why (or am I missing where they have) are we not building MASH hospitals?

Trump had a makeshift hospital as well as the Mercy in NY that had a total of 1 patient with covid19 in it.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...ing-hospitals/

This was two weeks ago complaining about ventilators. Cuomo is now sending ventilators out of NY.

NY is a powder keg though, and extreme example, to be honest. Very few places are like it, where everyone is on top of another. We've had it longer here in LA county(largest in the nation), and a fraction of NY's issues.

Even still...NY never came close to projections given.

posting articles I have already posted. How dare you little man

man made as in adding a spike protein to an existing virus
Not like they built it from scratch

saying it´s not man made is just as ludacris as saying it is

Certainly a powder keg given its logistics. But still, we've never seen anything this bad since 1918. Even the 2009 H1N1 and the severe flu season 2 years ago weren't quite this overwhelming. This a whole 'nother level.

The 2009-10 H1N1 had about 3,500 lab confirmed deaths and an estimated 12.5k total. The whole time. We're approaching lab-confirmed apples to apples deaths in1 dayequal to the entirety of the h1n1 season and already have three times as many individual confirmed (or presumed by medical professionals in a position to write a death cert) from covid as were estimated from the whole h1n1 season.

You likely already know that, but, some don't really get it yet. Somehow, a minimum of 35,000 deaths in under 3 weeks in the US alone...with no end in sight...despite super hardcore stay at home shutdowns that whole time...qualifies as not a big deal. SMH

The Mercy was never meant to treat COVID victims.

I agree the handoffs between regular hospitals and the emergency ones (including COVID) sucks. When the decision was made to start diverting COVID patients to emergency hospitals. The emergency hospitals followed a stringent non-emergency protocol and basically wouldn’t accept any COVID patients. When asked why the emergency hospitals said they’re following state guidelines, and the regular hospitals said they’re overloaded but the emergency ones wouldn’t take patients without 5 days of meds +15 other criteria. More finger pointing.

The point is the fact that the emergency hospitals didn’t have full capacity patients (200-300 in each) does not mean that the main hospitals weren’t overloaded.

It's honestly mind-blowing that people still can't understand this. Brb literally killing 10x more people per day than the flu, despite nationwide quarantines.

1.5% that's it? I expected higher, way higher. I mean there were models assuming 60% infection rate (Germany). This doesn't mesh with R0 5-7 that's been touted lately.

I'm not sure what to make of this. I've read that the amount of antibodies is quite low in response as well...

I'm pretty sure the German model, and 60% infection rate, was apredicted% of the population that needed to get immunityin order to stop the pandemic.That little single German town thing where they sampled just 1,000 people, the number 60% was suggesting that based on the data they gathered, they guessed 60% would need to get it to hit "herd immunity"/stop pandemic level spread. It never indicated that 60% had already been exposed or infected

Yeah, this is a troubling indicator. It either implies that our tests don't work or that we're going to deal with periodic flareups of this causing mass die-offs among vulnerable populations for a long time.

Sounds low, but if 1.5% of Americans had the antibodies then that’d be 5 million people. Which would drop the death rate to 0.65%

I meant to pointing out the *projected* 60% infection rate as opposed to what's being experienced now with that town. Sorry didn't mean to imply that's what the infection rate was for the German town.

I guess social distancing actually works in this case, I wonder if the infection rate were 30% or so if they would have said fuk it and gone for herd immunity.