Russian people face 'catastrophe' as ruble crashes and sanctions bite

Everyone expected the Russian attack would be devastating for Ukrainian lives and businesses, but Canadians who study Russia and its economy say they have been startled by the invasion's catastrophic impact on Russians thanks to sanctions imposed by Western nations.

A plunging currency, a doubling of interest rates, empty shelves, a closed stock market, lineups at banks that are in danger of going broke Canadian Russia-watchers say the repercussions of the invasion on Ukraine are affecting Russians at every level and are only now being understood.

One question everyone is asking is whether this will weaken President Vladimir Putin's grip on power.

"I think it's a catastrophe all around, but I think it is a catastrophe in particular for the common people, for, you know, the regular folks," said Norman Pereira, whose family escaped through China from the St Petersburg area in 1919 during the Russian Revolution.
Collapse plagues every aspect of life

The 80-year-old professor emeritus of Russian studies and history at Halifax's Dalhousie University still has family in Russia whom he keeps in touch with and is married to a Russian. Pereira, whose name is of Sephardic Portuguese origin, says the crash in the ruble and other economic impacts are already beginning to plague every aspect of life and that's apart from battlefield casualties.

Like others I spoke to, Pereira was surprised by the brutality of the invasion, the weight of Western sanctions against Russia and the widespread consequences for the Russian economy.

"I misread the situation, I didn't think Putin would act so rashly. It's a disaster, a tragic mistake," he said in a phone conversation on Monday. "That may be putting it too kindly."

Pereira says that in a country where more than half of the population live on $6,000 US or less a year, it is the poorest who always suffer the most. But he says the growing middle class, especially in St. Petersburg and Moscow, has also been hit hard by the sanctions.

"The sanctions may not affect the people at the top very much, but it's going to affect the middle class, and it'll affect the people in the countryside. They're always the ones who take the brunt of it anyway."

In a country whose leader has become increasingly dictatorial, it is hard to see how a revolt by the middle class could make Putin relinquish his hold on power. Despite that, many including Russian chess grandmaster and human rights activist Garry Kasparov have proposed that the only real solution to the current crisis is the fall of the Putin regime.

One theory, sometimes called the J-curve hypothesis, is that rebellions don't arise when people are subjected to continuous grinding poverty but when living standards fall sharply after a period of economic improvement, "when expectations are not fulfilled," said Joan DeBardeleben, who studies relations between Russia and Europe at Carleton University in Ottawa. "I think that makes a lot of sense in this case."

She added, "Of course this is a question of where the anger gets directed." Steered by government propaganda, Russian nationalists may blame damage to their economy caused by things like the sale of shares by Western oil companies and bank runs on the forces Putin claims he is fighting in Ukraine.

"So it's not a foregone conclusion that the anger that might result from these kinds of impacts would necessarily be directed at the state authorities or towards Mr. Putin himself," DeBardeleben said.

Economist Dane Rowlands, a professor at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, was also surprised by the power and effect of Western sanctions on Russia.

"They've gone a lot further and a lot quicker than I thought they would in terms of the breadth of the sanctions," he said on Monday. "They've really only left one remaining door open, and that's the financing of oil and gas purchases for the European countries."

Rowlands was also surprised that the Russian central bank was not expecting to see its overseas reserves cut off one more bit of evidence that Putin underestimated the global reaction to his moves on Ukraine.

For the Russian economy, huge oil and gas resources have turned out to be a liability as well as an asset now that many foreign imports have been halted by sanctions. Sometimes seen as part of the phenomenon called the "resource curse," an economy can become so dependent on its wealth from a single source that it does not do enough to diversify. Instead, like Venezuela during the boom years, it buys what it needs.

Now, Rowlands says, with many imports cut off and the ruble falling sharply in value, store shelves are emptying.

"Russia obviously produces a lot of its own stuff, but they don't produce that much in the sense that it's a very resource-dependent country," he said. "They sell that stuff, and they buy what they want from outside."

It's not just consumers who have been affected but also industries, including oil and gas, that depend on imports of foreign parts and electronics cut off by sanctions and by restrictions on flights. Eventually, Rowlands says, those needs could be replaced by Chinese goods, but as North Americans have discovered, switching to a new source when supply chains break down is neither quick nor easy. Developing new supply lines is a task of years, not weeks or months.

Lisa Sundstrom is personally affected by the Russian incursion into Ukraine and the resulting sanctions. The University of British Columbia professor studies Russian protest movements.

Her fully funded research project in Russia was interrupted first by the pandemic. "Now I don't know if I'll ever get back," she said. "But my problems are very small compared to a lot of people."

Russians she has worked with have been demonstrating for peace and have now been arrested as police repression has become more intense.

Like Pereira, besides demonstrators, Sundstrom worries most about people at the lower income levels. People with debt, for instance, will now be burdened by central bank interest rates that have doubled to more than 20 per cent. Rising prices due to "massive" inflation will be devastating, she says, especially for people on government incomes or pensions.

"They're already not really enough to live on, but now they're going to be more and more useless over time," she said.

But Sundstrom says it's not just poorer Russians who are feeling the effect of sanctions. The many middle-class Russians who have grown used to being able to travel around the world will be stuck at home.

She says many ordinary people she knows have foreign bank accounts, and now they have lost access to them, while businesses can't get access to the capital they need. This time, Sundstrom says, Putin may have angered too many.

"I think that even within the inner circle other than the most militant hard core people who are advising him many people in the cabinet, many parliamentarians are going to start distancing themselves from him," she said. "He seems unhinged."

As someone who has been watching the Russian leader and talking to Russians for years, Sundstrom says that apart from the progressive pro-democracy elements, Putin has always been so calculating and so careful to balance different constituencies in the country.

"It looks like he's just abandoned them now, which is pretty dangerous," she said. "But I don't want to count him out yet."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rus...ttis-1.6367198

President of Belarussia. Dude is like a living parody, a laughingstock with an iq of 60. Interview is from a month ago lmfao. Gives a nice sense of what kind of clowns putler likes to deal with




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JNtiO7nhmo

Based

That should be another red flag/sign of what's really going on there. Early on we had tons of video that turned out to be recycled images from 2015 or from movies (L'mao). They've either run out of stock footage that fits their narrative or know their goose is cooked.

Looking like a bunch of miscers got bamboozled by the propaganda machines again lol

Per RT.com:

“Some 498 servicemen have been killed and nearly 1,600 have been wounded during the ongoing attack on Ukraine, Russia’s military claimed on Wednesday.

The Defense Ministry refuted claims that there have been “countless” casualties during the conflict to date, branding them deliberate disinformation originating from the adversary.”

You ever watch that cartoon back in the day, pinky and the brain?

This dude is pinky and Putin is brain.

Russia's Economy is past the point of no return. Daily protest with thousands of people being arrested in Russia as well. They haven't made any further advancements on Kiev. what is Russia going to do at this point? They are going to run out of resources to fund the war at some point and there arent ANY companies ready to fill those orders. pootin has literally cucked himself.

Makes you wonder if Putin was always a potato.

I would say we could probably 3x or 4x those numbers and we would be around the real ones. I don't think 5300 have died, but I know damn sure more than 498 have. Somewhere around 2500 is probably realistic.

Make no mistake about it, if Ukraine rolled over like a dead dog this retard is the type of guy Pootin would install as head of Ukraine. No wonder they refuse to surrender.

Quite rich coming from the guy who keeps crying about Ukrainian elections not being "fair and organic" as if the USSR used to be an organic jolly good club of fellow communists.

And of course I will call idiots pol autists if they have nothing to say besides the already mentioned vague bullchit about fighting muh globohomo and something about white people. Morons oust themselves as morons whenever they start mentioning white people in the context of Europe. Europe is white, Europe has always been white, didn't really stop us from mass murdering each other for literal millennia. The key word is supposed to be ethnicity.

"White people" is an American thing. We had "Hitler fought the globohomo" threads before this crap started, and we always had "Putin fights against globohomo and for white people and he is based" threads as well.

Also the LGBT and whatever agenda in the West is wholly irrelevant in the context of this conflict and EE in general. You think that people in rural areas - so most of the region - who still have to deal with the aftermath of the socialist era and are trying to get by on maybe 400 bucks a month at best should care about some randos' rants about tranny swimmers and Netflix p3do movies?

Is there an agenda in the West? I believe so. Does it matter with regards to whatever Russia's doing? Absolutely not.

Great article.

Pereira says that in a country where more than half of the population live on $6,000 US or less a year, it is the poorest who always suffer the most. But he says the growing middle class, especially in St. Petersburg and Moscow, has also been hit hard by the sanctions.

Just imagine when Russias go from living on 6000 a year to barely making 1000. The Country is going to be in turmoil for over a decade strictly from their economy being thrown down the garbage disposal.

This. Nobody gives a chit about your completely useless opinions clogging up this thread. Post pics, videos, and updates. Instead miscers arguing over complete hypothetical bullchit.

Wheres the video of the explosion that looked like a mushroom cloud?

ForEx brahs, buy euros.

Trust.

Ukraine has been insanely corrupt since the 90s thanks to Russian influence. All the bad sheit going on over there is 99% on Russians and Russian backed rebels. The casualties they have faced in East Ukraine is because of RUSSIAN backed rebels, not Ukraine itself. They were just starting to get a leg under them as far as corruption and the direction of the Country with Zelensky. Pootin was having none of that and this is where we are at now.

The Ukraine supporters have gone full retard. No better and clear example of what complete brainwashing from propaganda looks like. They have ignored: documents, videos, videos showing the staging and fake propaganda, stories being pumped in Western media that are repeatedly shown false, etc. They are mental gymnasts of world class ability and talent.

I thought the fauxdemic panic-cels and vax-cels were bad and numerous, however, not only have they all become Ukrainecuks, but even many people who were bright enough to see through the Covid nonsense have been overwhelmed by this propaganda onslaught and are now regurgitating propaganda daily. The sheer absurdity of the media narrative is so clear and yet we have some very ignorant and foolish miscers spouting the Party Line, and General Will of the Party.

There seems to be new video dumps every morning around 8-10am eastern. Once I get settled in ill go through all sources and post new videos.

Imagine trying to compare covid believers with people supporting Ukraine. Some of you miscers like yourself are sick in the head and I hope you get help at some point.

Hell yea. The ar15 forum thread is really good with updates too. Not as much bs back and forth there, but there definitely still is some.

everything I have read says it was a FOAB dropped on some type of gas line. It's about as close as you can get to a nuke without being a nuke.

All of you Covid dupes are Ukraine dupes and then some. The same type of insane narrative being pumped 24/7, the same absurd nonsense, and you are believing it all, like you did with the fauxdemic.

Imagine in 2022 being so stupid that you fall for CIA staged scenes and media narratives and can't see the absolute fraudulent nature of the narrative that is being blasted 24/7 on all media.

Sick in the head? You are talking about your self.

Imagine being so obsessed and narcissistic that you have a meltdown as soon as people stop caring about your poorblood rants when the missiles start falling.

Is the CIA here in the room with us right now?

Second batch of #Javelin anti-tank missile systems donated by #Estonia has reached #Ukraine.

No one wants a ban bet? Chalup?

Whats the bet?

Funny how they want to stand up for Ukraine but couldn't stand up for themselves as their rights began to erode away over the last 2 years.

I'll bet that Russia will control Kiev and all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper by the end of March. Month ban.