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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1668477743 09-26-2022, 07:28 AM
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Good time to go to Europe if you can stomach the risks, I have some colleagues who are headed to Italy etc right now

Times like these should make you seriously appreciate what we have in North America with this huge swath of land packed with natural resources under the purview of two strongly democratic nations who share the longest land border and are great allies and friends, which is all in stark contrast to other parts of the globe.
post 1668478843 09-26-2022, 07:53 AM
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Friday calls safe so far. Looks like technical bounce coming.
post 1668480503 09-26-2022, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
most people these days are saying to stay cash but these dips are nice. likely to see even lower after earnings?
The people saying to stay in cash are probably buying in behind the scenes.
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post 1668481773 09-26-2022, 08:49 AM
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There's likely no rush to get in, we're nowhere near through this yet

Don't want to put all your eggs in one basket though so it could be time to start nibbling while preparing to average down harder in potential further drops
post 1668482463 09-26-2022, 08:57 AM
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Its more than likely that sellers want to renter higher at 3850-3900 for next leg down.

Oversold bounce is logical but that phukery that went down overnight with british pound is not good.


The fact this got almost to June lows and not test it...not good sign that bottom is in yet.


From mid October to start of Nov you will have tons of earnings before the next FOMC Nov 3rd.

On top of this there is CPI report in 2 weeks.








lot of earnings next month.

post 1668485553 09-26-2022, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
The people saying to stay in cash are probably buying in behind the scenes.
Why would anyone buy right now? The housing market crash hasn't even got underway, rumor is Xi jingping is under house arrest, currencies around the world are crashing, putin is ramping up for another go at Ukraine, the auto industry is about to have zero buyers, the fed is openly saying they are raising rates more, openly saying until unemployment gets higher which hasn't even started yet, we haven't seen bad quarterly earnings reports which are eventually coming, this is pretty much the first cold week in Europe and wait till heating bills start coming in.

Why would anyone buy right now ?
post 1668486743 09-26-2022, 10:09 AM
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well you have to look at it in terms of timelines.

some here are investing 5-10 years out.



atm yeah it doesn't make sense to buy if you plan on holding under 1 year or 2.....until Fed does pivot or pause on hikes.

there is zero and I mean zero indication they are even close to pause let alone pivot.

bear markets tend to last more than 1 year...



process is same


fed hikes = dxy up , 10 year yield up



compared to previous bear markets........

2000-2003




2007-2009




right now

post 1668487653 09-26-2022, 10:23 AM
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Just bought puts on TSM and EQNR
post 1668487683 09-26-2022, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
Why would anyone buy right now? The housing market crash hasn't even got underway, rumor is Xi jingping is under house arrest, currencies around the world are crashing, putin is ramping up for another go at Ukraine, the auto industry is about to have zero buyers, the fed is openly saying they are raising rates more, openly saying until unemployment gets higher which hasn't even started yet, we haven't seen bad quarterly earnings reports which are eventually coming, this is pretty much the first cold week in Europe and wait till heating bills start coming in.

Why would anyone buy right now ?
As Carbon mentioned . . . timeline. Nothing says this time will be like the others but, historically, bear markets are short lived in the grand scheme of things and are followed by significant bull markets. So if you are investing for long term and you think that this relatively ugly period will likely be followed (at some point) by a pretty significant rip--then you might start scaling in to take advantage of that. Trade some short term risk/pain for a payoff later.

The tech bubble was the end and we were going into a literal depression. Then 9/11 was the end. Then 2008 housing crash was the end. The COVID was the end. Now, we have this to deal with. Will it be a depression and take decades for the market to recover? Maybe--history says probably not. Check back in about 5 years and see.

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post 1668488623 09-26-2022, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
Why would anyone buy right now? The housing market crash hasn't even got underway, rumor is Xi jingping is under house arrest, currencies around the world are crashing, putin is ramping up for another go at Ukraine, the auto industry is about to have zero buyers, the fed is openly saying they are raising rates more, openly saying until unemployment gets higher which hasn't even started yet, we haven't seen bad quarterly earnings reports which are eventually coming, this is pretty much the first cold week in Europe and wait till heating bills start coming in.

Why would anyone buy right now ?
There are MANY people who never stop buying. I'm one of them.

I'm in the business of accumulating stocks and bonds. They're on sale and only decreasing in price.

The question is, why wouldn't I be buying?
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post 1668489453 09-26-2022, 10:58 AM
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There are other risks to consider depending on your outlook, we could be headed for a prolonged period where rules of thumb established over the last 20-30 years may not apply to the next 20-30.

Likely all of us have spent our adult lives existing in a period of unprecedented growth and low inflation fueled by globalization and helped by China working hard to bring hundreds of millions of its citizens out of rural poverty. We're currently staring down the barrel of deglobalization, unwinding this experiment that has been underway for the last few decades, and increased emphasis on domestic manufacturing and energy security under the specter of foreign entities like Russia and China presenting huge risks for the democratic world.

I suspect this will be inflationary in nature and disruptive to existing supply chains, which could necessitate higher interest rates for much longer than most expect. If you watch legislation tabled in the US, like the Inflation Reduction Act, these things are extremely hostile to China and existing supply chains.


It's entirely possible we get a real Black Swan event, like China making a move on the country that produces most of the world's semiconductors.
post 1668490583 09-26-2022, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
There are MANY people who never stop buying. I'm one of them.

I'm in the business of accumulating stocks and bonds. They're on sale and only decreasing in price.

The question is, why wouldn't I be buying?
Why tf you buying bonds bruh??
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post 1668490623 09-26-2022, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Why tf you buying bonds bruh??
Just a standard percentage of my weekly DCA. 15% into BND.
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post 1668490973 09-26-2022, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
There are MANY people who never stop buying. I'm one of them.

I'm in the business of accumulating stocks and bonds. They're on sale and only decreasing in price.

The question is, why wouldn't I be buying?
Why wouldn't you ? Because you know it's going down or at the very least staying the same for a little while. No harm sitting on the sidelines.

Now as far as dca , I'm a construction worker and not a investor like some of you guys. I will only invest once and it will be a large amount for me. Not what you guys consider a large amount. I will only buy once and need to maximum the little I do put in. I don't have a bunch of discretionary cash to invest all the time. I put the money in my company's 401k March
post 1668492873 09-26-2022, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
Why wouldn't you ? Because you know it's going down or at the very least staying the same for a little while. No harm sitting on the sidelines.

Now as far as dca , I'm a construction worker and not a investor like some of you guys. I will only invest once and it will be a large amount for me. Not what you guys consider a large amount. I will only buy once and need to maximum the little I do put in. I don't have a bunch of discretionary cash to invest all the time. I put the money in my company's 401k March
We're using totally different strategies. Also, it's actually very ineffective to buy the dip versus investing money regularly. Investing regularly wins out much more often then buying the dip does over time.

I'm investing 20% of my weekly income every week, that's my strategy. On top of that I'm maxing my ROTH every year, so that's another $500.00 a month. On top of that, I'm choosing to go in with saved cash when I see fit.

As an example, I went in with about 80% of my saved cash stash when the market crashed in 2020. Those buys are still in the green and I've been making dividends and reinvesting those dividends constantly.

Remember, time in the market is a powerful concept. You should definitely not just invest one time, that's a losing approach.
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post 1668493293 09-26-2022, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
We're using totally different strategies. Also, it's actually very ineffective to buy the dip versus investing money regularly. Investing regularly wins out much more often then buying the dip does over time.

I'm investing 20% of my weekly income every week, that's my strategy. On top of that I'm maxing my ROTH every year, so that's another $500.00 a month. On top of that, I'm choosing to go in with saved cash when I see fit.

As an example, I went in with about 80% of my saved cash stash when the market crashed in 2020. Those buys are still in the green and I've been making dividends and reinvesting those dividends constantly.

Remember, time in the market is a powerful concept. You should definitely not just invest one time, that's a losing approach.
I'm buying index funds right now as well. If I have leftover cash, why not. The market is on sale. Might take awhile but i'm 25 years from retirement. It is scary some days though lol.
post 1668493653 09-26-2022, 12:16 PM
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Yeah it's beyond difficult to time a single transaction like that, usually better to do things in chunks at certain intervals

I'll throw this in here though, it's the S&P overlaid with effective federal funds rate

https://en.macromicro.me/collections...est-rate-sp500

Note where the index actually bottoms relative to the interest rate moves -- we've never seen a market bottom while the Fed is in the process of hiking. They're hiking because the economy is overheated, we might see another big bear market rally if next earnings come in really good.


They're going to hike until something breaks, they'll pause and reassess, and I think that will be the bottom. Even that might be optimistic if history is any indicator.
post 1668493873 09-26-2022, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted By DrFeeIGood⏩
I'm buying index funds right now as well. If I have leftover cash, why not. The market is on sale. Might take awhile but i'm 25 years from retirement. It is scary some days though lol.
Das it mane!

It is scary at times, but if you're always buying, it isn't near as scary as going in only once.

What funds are you buying? My primaries are VOO, VUG, VYM, and BND.
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post 1668496563 09-26-2022, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Das it mane!

It is scary at times, but if you're always buying, it isn't near as scary as going in only once.

What funds are you buying? My primaries are VOO, VUG, VYM, and BND.
But why buy BND when you know with 100% certainty it’s going to keep going down with more and more hikes. It doesn’t make any sense. It’s down 16% YTD…as a bond fund.
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post 1668497163 09-26-2022, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
But why buy BND when you know with 100% certainty it’s going to keep going down with more and more hikes. It doesn’t make any sense. It’s down 16% YTD…as a bond fund.
He wants to cost average down I suppose. Shouldn't be issue if you're slowly adding.

That being said writing is on the wall Fed isn't walking back shiit.


Also there is probably outside chance that they will intervene in currency markets, strong USD dollar is gonna be problem. (they already manipulate it anyways)

If anyone read that wiki of Plaza Accord that I posted way above.
post 1668498173 09-26-2022, 01:42 PM
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Nobody playing FUBO still?

Its been my biggest money maker as of late

Lefty WYA? Hope you got out when it was above $30 !!!!!
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1668498583 09-26-2022, 01:49 PM
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what exactly are you playing on FUBO other than hoping some shorts cover ?

this company is going toward penny stock status.

Fubo tv threw everything at Premier league rights.

Ask DAZN how that worked out for them.

post 1668499223 09-26-2022, 02:02 PM
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre post_id=1668498583]what exactly are you playing on FUBO other than hoping some shorts cover ?
this company is going toward penny stock status.
Fubo tv threw everything at Premier league rights.
Ask DAZN how that worked out for them.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/fWG4sFe.png[img][/QUOTE]Been day trading / swing trading doing well

You think its gon go to zero then? lol
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post 1668499863 09-26-2022, 02:11 PM
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Have you seen FUBO financial statements?

They are burning cash in dumpsters.

negative cash flow.

negative profit margin.


you are basically playing around with shorts that sometime decide to cover.


that company in tight fed market won't even survive to finance their debt till next June/July unless Fed pivots.
post 1668499973 09-26-2022, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
He wants to cost average down I suppose. Shouldn't be issue if you're slowly adding.

That being said writing is on the wall Fed isn't walking back shiit.
Also there is probably outside chance that they will intervene in currency markets, strong USD dollar is gonna be problem. (they already manipulate it anyways)
If anyone read that wiki of Plaza Accord that I posted way above.
Seems likely they move to devalue the dollar. Obviously too much strength becomes a bad thing.

Still, not sure why bonds would be the play when each hike lowers the value of the bond itself. Wait until Fed has made it clear hikes are done or that cuts are on the table. Until then only bond I buy is IBOND
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post 1668501403 09-26-2022, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Have you seen FUBO financial statements?
They are burning cash in dumpsters.
negative cash flow.
negative profit margin.
you are basically playing around with shorts that sometime decide to cover.
that company in tight fed market won't even survive to finance their debt till next June/July unless Fed pivots.
Yes I saw, thanks for the info bruh
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post 1668503713 09-26-2022, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
But why buy BND when you know with 100% certainty it’s going to keep going down with more and more hikes. It doesn’t make any sense. It’s down 16% YTD…as a bond fund.
I was buying bnd monthly throughout 2021.. total fukin bullchit man, never again with bond funds..

If you want bonds, just buy legit corporate or treasury bonds
post 1668509973 09-26-2022, 05:31 PM
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Thinking SPY will break through these YTD lows.

Could it be profitable to roll down CCs to the bottom which is forecasted around 3,300. Make a profit rolling down and out by reducing cost basis until the bottom is reached. Then close out the CC and stay long for the ride back up.

Was thinking start out by selling puts until the price gets low enough to be assigned. By then should get a start on a lower cost basis from the strike the shares are assigned.
post 1668511243 09-26-2022, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
We're using totally different strategies. Also, it's actually very ineffective to buy the dip versus investing money regularly. Investing regularly wins out much more often then buying the dip does over time.

I'm investing 20% of my weekly income every week, that's my strategy. On top of that I'm maxing my ROTH every year, so that's another $500.00 a month. On top of that, I'm choosing to go in with saved cash when I see fit.

As an example, I went in with about 80% of my saved cash stash when the market crashed in 2020. Those buys are still in the green and I've been making dividends and reinvesting those dividends constantly.

Remember, time in the market is a powerful concept. You should definitely not just invest one time, that's a losing approach.
I don't want to come off as argumentative. It's just awesome you are investing. I spend 6 percent of my check ok my company's 401k. They Match 50 cents on the dollar and pay a decent divided. I can get company match up to 10 or 15 percent of my check . My goal is to eventuly get to that point. I have a chunk of money I'm going to Invest that I got from something else , not work money. I'm going to Invest that in crypto when bitcoin hits 13k. It's not a lot of money so I will throw it on some alt coin.
post 1668514423 09-26-2022, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
I don't want to come off as argumentative. It's just awesome you are investing. I spend 6 percent of my check ok my company's 401k. They Match 50 cents on the dollar and pay a decent divided. I can get company match up to 10 or 15 percent of my check . My goal is to eventuly get to that point. I have a chunk of money I'm going to Invest that I got from something else , not work money. I'm going to Invest that in crypto when bitcoin hits 13k. It's not a lot of money so I will throw it on some alt coin.
You don't sound like you're arguing at all. It's awesome you're putting in and you should do everything you can to maximize your employee match program. If you're not doing that, you're essentially throwing away free money. If it means cutting costs in the home, do it. Whatever it takes because the more that time passes, the less time your money has to work for you.

Also, I have open BTC orders for 12.5k. Right there with ya.
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