today had tons of massive option expiry (big hedges in single stock names (leaps) that were put on last January that expired - these are done by institutions)

lot of short covering / profit taking / monetizing of those options went down



so far;

banks did not shiit the bed on earnings

netflix somehow does okay (still bs imo this should trade at $250-300)

next week msft / tsla / etc have earnings.




atm I guess you can draw out one conclusion so far... normal distribution always wins

since October they were beating recession coming this quarter to death

in few weeks they will start shoveling soft landing and fed pivot is here



where this goes from here . I dunno

If the mainstream narrative becomes soft landing and fed pivot, surely S&P 500 will rally to 4400 +

I don’t know if we’ll see too much earnings compression yet, it’s still the early innings

For example in Tesla, lower deliveries but I wouldn’t be surprised to see revenue per unit going up depending on how they delivered vehicles (when were they ordered and at what prices)

Q1-Q2 is where we’ll see profit margins come in I think, which is basically what we’re taking about when referring to reducing inflation

If equity goes full steam ahead it just gives Powell more leeway to keep pushing rates up. I don’t listen to his remarks or read them, but I don’t think he has said specifically what he’s looking at for hikes in the first meeting or the 2nd. I think the most he’s released is he figures the ceiling for rates will have to be higher than 5% and he’s not interested in lowering them in 2023. I personally won’t be floored if we get a 50bp hike right out the gate.

Also anyone check on how the balance sheet wind down has been going?

Battle is going to come down to data at end of day.


Fed board voting member interview that was done today. (fyi fed board has 12 voting members they all have to agree on fed policy decision before JPow signs off)

If you have 20 minutes of time just listen to this interview.

Fast forward to 8 minute mark of this video and listen.




As for balance sheet its rolling 76.5B per month.

Last March 2022 balance sheet was 8.95 Trillion now 8.55 Trillion

It will take a long time to get 4.5T actually impossible they will abandon ship at 6-6.5T.

MBS is not even being touched at moment, cause they afraid.

My point wasn't to write a manifesto on the technical specifications on changing an app lol. Obviously, there's more to it than that.

My broader point is that it's not THAT hard either and it adds little societal value. Because of low interest rates, there was rampant speculation in tech that will mostly lead to wasted capital and a bunch of zombie companies that will continue to unload workers. Since software had high margins, they could pay workers a lot, but I suspect that worthwhile tech companies will be less prevalent this decade and they certainly won't be as bloated as they were. This will have downstream effects on the economy since you won't have as many broccoli haired zoomers making $150K right out of school in an SDE job at Amazon with a ton of disposable income anymore.

That's my prediction - not what it takes to change a button on ******** lol.

[QUOTE=Carbonfibre post_id=1675447213]today had tons of massive option expiry (big hedges in single stock names (leaps) that were put on last January that expired - these are done by institutions)

lot of short covering / profit taking / monetizing of those options went down



so far;

banks did not shiit the bed on earnings

netflix somehow does okay (still bs imo this should trade at $250-300)

next week msft / tsla / etc have earnings.




atm I guess you can draw out one conclusion so far... normal distribution always wins

since October they were beating recession coming this quarter to death

in few weeks they will start shoveling soft landing and fed pivot is here



where this goes from here . I dunno


[img]https://i.imgur.com/DAKLEVp.gif[img][/QUOTE]Cuckflix pop on earnings was a joke. Didn't their earnings miss by like 50% or something despite a gigantic subscriber beat? Don't know how The Street liked that number. That means they're generating less ARPU and their margins will continue to get eaten away as more competitors enter the streaming space.

I didn't read the whole thing yet, but the reaction doesn't pass the smell test IMO. Banks also weren't great. They beat on earnings, but pretty much all of them raised reserves, which indicates they see a recession. That in and of itself doesn't mean much, since the market is already pricing in mild recession, but here's the kicker: retail sales were also soft everywhere. I think we're in the early innings of earnings misses and we are going to see a bigger downturn in consoooooming as more people get laid off.

I'm not good at predictions, but I think this will be a relatively flat year overall with tons of volatility and we're in for some short-term volatility downward. I'm sticking to my guns that this recession won't be as "mild" as people think and the Fed will keep rates high to avoid inflation re-appearing. Market seems to be ignoring this despite the Fed and even Jamie Dimon saying he thinks inflation will be sticky.

^imagine the losses they would incur to try to actually SELL the MBS they hold with current market rates. Then think about what they would do to the markets dumping their holdings.

Tbh I still think imma come out with an easy 10-20x on my fnma investment but we shall see! Just gotta get the ball rolling on politicians fighting to be the ones capitalizing on cashing in their warrants in the public markets once both companies are released!

lol if u missed the bottom #pltr

Nice 30% pump on TSLA before abysmal earnings this week.

don't trust that dude... they will figure out a way to fake-pump the numbers. He has done it before.

I've been eyeing some weekly puts but I have a feeling they'll gun it to $152 before the report releases on Thursday.

earnings are 50/50 coin flip

I rather play something safer like SPY / QQQ etc

played SPY calls this morning / worked out real well.

no point of trying to fight against wind.

nasdaq stocks suddenly in favor again.



they are trying to really and I mean really make sure that worst is over.

0.07 percent chance of no rate hike next week lmaooooooo


if for whatever reason Fed did do this no hike.

SP 500 would be 4200+

should have held on to those spy calls could been another 300 percent gains phuckkk


its back

Feels like 2021 again just watching stonks go up each day

I’ve sold CC against everything I own right now. Just sold some Sofi cc at $6.5 for Feb at $24 each cuz who doesn’t like free money. Earnings are next Monday. I’ll probably sell more calls closer we get to earnings and for further out.

Payo I sold $7 calls for $55 for May. Not much open interest so I had to take what I could get.

Egy I sold a bunch of ITM April $4 CC at $1.10 to move the fuk on. Also sold some April $5 and July $5 CCs on the other half of my holdings at $50 each and $70 each respectively. I still have 20 July $4 CSP I sold for $65 I’m going to start unloading before they can release more dry hole bad news.

I’ve been accumulating more FNMA preferred shares with a par value of $50 that used to have 5%+ dividends back in the day. They trade sub $2 right now. Seems like a great deal even compared to the $25 par value preferred shares. No clue if they will ever get away from federal oversight, but in the event of liquidation I think it’s reasonable to figure they could repay 4 cents on the dollar towards these preferred shares which is what I am buying them for. Best case scenario is they get recapitalized and start paying dividends again.

SABS I am just sitting on my hands with like 220k warrants

Cano still sitting on lots of Sept calls.

Sbux still cucking me.

This time is different.

No fed printer with unlimited money printing instead we are in QT.

Market is now going alone and throwing around soft landing like crazy all over news.

2-3 months ago it was recession Q1/Q2 was guarantee.

It is bit strange how there is still bunch of short covering in shiit names like Rivn / Lcid etc.

The short covering usually is into monthly expiry / like last Friday big Opex.

Why there is covering today on crap names not sure.

It sounds really cool but reality is I had buy offers around .03-.04 that I got most of those at. I got rid of most of the high cost basis ones selling 30,000. I held 250k till I loss harvested in December.

No idea on odds of the moonshot, but C. Diff treatment would be great. Flu stuff is kinda useless. Antithrombocyte could be big too for prevention of transplant rejection and to prevent progression of T1 diabetes potentially. Lots of other capabilities but monoclonal is equal in almost all capacities except quickly mutating viruses. Their primary problem is they’ve managed to squander all their cash and they’ll need to raise more by the end of the year. It would be awesome if they could get fast track review for the C. Diff

Feels like the indices don't sufficiently communicate what has happened since last November. The S&P is down 13% from the peak but so many big names are still down 40-60%+, even Netflix after the rally is down 50% from that high. Apple looks like the only FAANG stock that hasn't been bludgeoned yet.


Underneath all that must be a rotation moreso into energy (not sure what % it now constitutes in the S&P) and smaller-cap? Financials? I don't track this stuff too closely but just surprised at how much further down these mega caps still are compared to the index (except Apple).

Energy is 3% of S&P. 9% of earnings in 2022

I agree. This chart shows a good timeline.https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/...022-by-sector/

Probably moving into fixed income assets. 5 year yield plummeted from 4% to 3.5% in like 2 weeks.

markets be crazy


rug pulling is rug pulling

Whatchu mean? Markets seem fine?

SP 500 4040 is long ass resistance going back few months back to November.

Buyers went to test the that level before even MSFT earnings.

This is called front running which is likely due to shorts players getting run over and paying on this ride up.


This is big inflection point atm.

I see.

It’s funny though everything was back on track and “keep buying dip” “fed gonna start easing”

Doom n gloom is all you see in the news today out of nowhere. I still think market isn’t pricing chances of Powell going 50bp properly but that’s ok.

Perhaps job loss news will be enough to keep him at 25


I think I’ve managed to do it right as far as real life jobs go. I just had my first week of overnights and got 1 phone call I could walk a nurse through. I am so fking overpaid if it genuinely is like this lmao.

also, fun question- those of you at the ceiling in terms of your base pay- how much has the ceiling moved for you since 2020? My base has only gone up like 8-9% and I’m kinda thinking I better get a solid base raise this year… bonuses have been legit, but can’t expect it to last forever….

Huge if true

Only if inflation does u turn.

Every morning you read headline x company laid off x amount of people = stock goes up.


This reporter here is the only guy that has direct line with Fed.

Fed uses him to get market reaction.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set...ry-11674362567

Doubt Powell goes to 50 bps. That would absolutely break the market and cause even more uncertainty with hiring/economic activity, which has slowed tremendously. I'm in the M&A world and we're not selling work/have a huge bench right now because deals aren't happening and companies aren't seeking professional services like they used to. There's already tons of calls that the Fed is tightening too fast and can't manage to create a "soft landing". Rate hikes to the upside, absent data that shows they're necessary, would be political suicide IMO. The softness in high paying jobs will also filter downward to the services economy in due time because suddenly, demand won't be there anymore as less people will be spending on dining out without 6 figure salaries.

I still think the market is overextending itself though. For whatever reason, the market still thinks Fed is full of chit and will pivot in H2 this year. My guess is the Fed is avoiding cutting rates for a while because inflation can be sticky and wants to avoid a scenario where they cut only to see inflation come back (as it did in the 70s). Cutting rates in this scenario would be a disaster and lead to even more criticism. My guess is we stay flat to slightly higher for longer and economic activity will come back slowly as companies get used to a new era of less free money. That said, there'll be a ton of economic uncertainty and earnings growth will slow tremendously as interest rates stay high, but part of it may be offset by China's reopening and global supply chains consolidating/correcting, which could be the catalysts for companies to resume more normal operations.

Good post.

Yeah on that second part.

Atm its about 1-2% rate cut on back end toward fall/winter this year market is running with.

China re opening on flip side could cause inflation to be sticky.

This run right now on sp 500 is still bear market rally due to speed of snap back. However over 4200+ shiit gets real whack and there could be next cycle of bull market.






Starting Jan 27 door opens for stock buybacks again.

Thoughts on NVDA boyos?

Not been doing much trading lately but still been babysitting my ports

With everything the way it is ATM I'm feeling like I could cash out and live comfortably for a decent chunk of time

I just went positive today so its tempting the hell out of me and I cannot stop thinking about it