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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1678851883 03-12-2023, 09:06 PM
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Dangerous game that Fed just opened.

Now big banks predicting no rate hikes not even 25 BPS next week FOMC.
post 1678852223 03-12-2023, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Dangerous game that Fed just opened.

Now big banks predicting no rate hikes not even 25 BPS next week FOMC.
They really need to stick to their fukin guns and do 25. I said it before about 50, but this one is far bigger to do to prove their seriousness.

Also this doesn’t absolve all the banks who haven’t marked their potential losses on long term MBS/bonds that they are all underwater on.
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post 1678852693 03-12-2023, 09:23 PM
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#2703
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
They really need to stick to their fukin guns and do 25. I said it before about 50, but this one is far bigger to do to prove their seriousness.

Also this doesn’t absolve all the banks who haven’t marked their potential losses on long term MBS/bonds that they are all underwater on.
Market has lost its mind completely in span of 4 days.

It went from higher for longer to now lets price all the rate hikes out again like bunch of morons.


SPY closed $385 Friday. Atm it will open around $392ish.... plus god knows how much put dumping will go on and call chasing to cause squeeze if they start squeezing everything pre market.



Two banks fail that have $300B on balance sheet combined.

Treasury brings out check book cause some moron in risk management refused to play duration risk trade cause zirp is gonna last forever mentality.

This backstop not only did they guarantee roku money is safe but bunch of crypto shiit as well in one swoop of pen.
post 1678853133 03-12-2023, 09:35 PM
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#2704
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Market has lost its mind completely in span of 4 days.

It went from higher for longer to now lets price all the rate hikes out again like bunch of morons.


SPY closed $385 Friday. Atm it will open around $392ish.... plus god knows how much put dumping will go on and call chasing to cause squeeze if they start squeezing everything pre market.



Two banks fail that have $300B on balance sheet combined.

Treasury brings out check book cause some moron in risk management refused to play duration risk trade cause zirp is gonna last forever mentality.

This backstop not only did they guarantee roku money is safe but bunch of crypto shiit as well in one swoop of pen.
How much equity got erased too? Also, what is happening to bond holders? Was that addressed?
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1678853463 03-12-2023, 09:42 PM
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#2705
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
How much equity got erased too? Also, what is happening to bond holders? Was that addressed?
Bond holders in those banks are fooked . . . they get nothing, same as shareholders.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regu...emic-risk.html

"To stem the damage and stave off a bigger crisis, the Fed and Treasury created an emergency program to backstop deposits at both Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank using the Fed’s emergency lending authority.

The FDIC’s deposit insurance fund will be used to cover depositors, many of whom were uninsured due to the $250,000 guarantee on deposits.

While depositors will have access to their money, equity and bondholders at both banks are being wiped out, a senior Treasury official said."
*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*

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post 1678854793 03-12-2023, 10:11 PM
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#2706
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Originally Posted By taf1968⏩
Bond holders in those banks are fooked . . . they get nothing, same as shareholders.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regu...emic-risk.html

"To stem the damage and stave off a bigger crisis, the Fed and Treasury created an emergency program to backstop deposits at both Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank using the Fed’s emergency lending authority.

The FDIC’s deposit insurance fund will be used to cover depositors, many of whom were uninsured due to the $250,000 guarantee on deposits.

While depositors will have access to their money, equity and bondholders at both banks are being wiped out, a senior Treasury official said."
And markets are fukking rallying hooo leee fukkkk.

1. We discovered banks aren’t marking their short term losses on their bonds and MBS properly in the event of liquidity crisis.
2. Billions in bonds and equity just got wiped out.

Markets fukking rally LMAO.

That said, I am puzzled when to buy more bonds. What pushes rates the most? A glut of bonds on the market so people sell cheap to enhance interest rate? No way that people start buying more bonds due to this whole fiasco right? I’m in the market for more I guess I should start averaging in weekly maybe.
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1678855313 03-12-2023, 10:23 PM
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#2707
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Crazy how fast this unraveled with the banks. Everyone thought (or at least were led to believe) that things were in much better shape after 2008/2009. "Lessons were learned" and regulations put in place and all that.

Nope. Took two days for the bottom to start falling out of regional banks because phukk phukk games were being played again during rising rates. Things could get pretty sporty. The Fed can't stop raising rates . . . inflation is still way too high. Will people hold off making a run on regional banks? CPI better come in anything-but-hot or this could get a lot uglier and faster. But if the regional banks get overwhelmed anyway, it might not matter.
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post 1678857163 03-12-2023, 11:05 PM
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I'd sooner believe this provides the backstop the Fed needs to continue plowing ahead with the hikes

lol @ Reuters article reporting on the upcoming meeting like this

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ay-2023-03-12/

It's the same fukking description used for every single Fed meeting listed on their Board Meetings page. People desperately, desperately want to believe this is the pivot.
post 1678860883 03-13-2023, 03:06 AM
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#2709
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Europe and Japan nosediving at open. Dragging down US premarket to almost breakeven/red on some index after being up 2%. Dollar dying and other regional banks taking the D in premarket still
post 1678867643 03-13-2023, 06:50 AM
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#2710
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yeah that went to shiit real fast overnight trade

euro trading opened this morning all their banks nose dived

contagion event is real

market did complete u turn


crashy it is



dxy cliff diving

10 year yield cliff diving
post 1678868783 03-13-2023, 07:12 AM
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#2711
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all you need to see

**** escalated real quick


lmao Biden press conference just did 1 minute speech

via phuck you SIBV management

you're fired morons and just walked off.

post 1678869183 03-13-2023, 07:20 AM
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#2712
  1. Destor
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre post_id=1678868783]all you need to see

**** escalated real quick


lmao Biden press conference just did 1 minute speech

via phuck you SIBV management

you're fired morons and just walked off.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/zcU7vKS.png[/QUOTE]Fuark the curve has inverted, recession incoming
post 1678869303 03-13-2023, 07:22 AM
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#2713
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Gotta do some coke and trade the 1 min candles on FRC today or some other regionals. Expecting 1-5% movement on them
post 1678869623 03-13-2023, 07:29 AM
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#2714
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
Gotta do some coke and trade the 1 min candles on FRC today or some other regionals. Expecting 1-5% movement on them
Lulz not all of this… but yeah all of this today

Edit; they have $60B liquidity from JPM. Buy deep OTM calls when circuit breaker is over lol

Edit2: spreads are insane. Can’t even come close to getting fills. Fuk.

Edit3: sell pressure is overwhelming lmao daaaaaym


Edit4: people must know this thing is going under. Why is there nothing but sell volume??? People are panic selling for 30 cents on the dollar they gotta know more…
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1678871413 03-13-2023, 08:23 AM
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#2715
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I think there's far more risk than benefit to being an investor in these. Even when they're backstopping the actual deposits, equity investors will be boned so where's the upside?
post 1678871853 03-13-2023, 08:33 AM
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#2716
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I think there's far more risk than benefit to being an investor in these. Even when they're backstopping the actual deposits, equity investors will be boned so where's the upside?
Pick one that doesn’t go under and you can easily get 10x return I’m guessing. I set a bunch of low ball offers to see if algos will fuk up and panic sell me some $30 April calls for $20/each ($20 total not per share).
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678872133 03-13-2023, 08:39 AM
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#2717
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there is chaos in market atm

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=tradehalts

I wouldn't trust anything currently

trap door is opening on everything or dip is being bought

impossible to tell when volume is hitting insane levels
post 1678872363 03-13-2023, 08:45 AM
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#2718
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Pick one that doesn’t go under and you can easily get 10x return I’m guessing. I set a bunch of low ball offers to see if algos will fuk up and panic sell me some $30 April calls for $20/each ($20 total not per share).
I mean buying at multi-decade lows is usually the way to go, that's exactly what I did with oil back when the pandemic hit but don't have a clue about this banking side of things
post 1678872613 03-13-2023, 08:51 AM
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I am in the banking industry but this is beyond me... I will watch from the sideline

the stock is taking in the arse we are one of the big one...


who knows what would happen next
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1678873283 03-13-2023, 09:08 AM
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#2720
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
there is chaos in market atm

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=tradehalts

I wouldn't trust anything currently

trap door is opening on everything or dip is being bought

impossible to tell when volume is hitting insane levels
wait wut isn't the S&P 500 up
post 1678873643 03-13-2023, 09:18 AM
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#2721
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Originally Posted By forthenoodz⏩
wait wut isn't the S&P 500 up
the regional banks are doing stupid shiit just single equity names

this doesn't affect sp 500






anyways

here comes the big dip buying

fed printer turned on again it seems

liquidity coming in big into futures
post 1678874243 03-13-2023, 09:30 AM
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#2722
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spx 4000 by end of day at this rate


fed printer back baby


this is like months worth of move in one day geez
post 1678874813 03-13-2023, 09:42 AM
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#2723
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
the regional banks are doing stupid shiit just single equity names

this doesn't affect sp 500






anyways

here comes the big dip buying

fed printer turned on again it seems

liquidity coming in big into futures
Premiums are nutty for regional banks.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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post 1678874953 03-13-2023, 09:45 AM
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#2724
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Premiums are nutty for regional banks.
Everyone wants to get in.

Like I said only interest to me was KRE ETF (safer if you can even claim that haha)

KRE spread and implied vol insaneeeeee.

so phucking expensive.
post 1678877053 03-13-2023, 10:35 AM
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#2725
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
Europe and Japan nosediving at open. Dragging down US premarket to almost breakeven/red on some index after being up 2%. Dollar dying and other regional banks taking the D in premarket still
Did you close your puts yet?
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1678877843 03-13-2023, 10:46 AM
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#2726
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Everyone wants to get in.

Like I said only interest to me was KRE ETF (safer if you can even claim that haha)

KRE spread and implied vol insaneeeeee.

so phucking expensive.
I bought NYCB few 100 shares at $6.41
If it keeps recovering I’ll sell ATM calls around $7 or maybe $8. InB4 they go under after hours today
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1678879623 03-13-2023, 11:22 AM
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#2727
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In b4 LMK google that for you. But does anyone know whether this new emergency facility will have a restriction on the use of proceeds (i.e., only use them to shore up cash on the balance sheet, can't use cash for more loans, etc.)? If not, then this really is QE (per my thoughts on the thread in main misc and Katya's links - at least I understand fed and IMF reserve banking as much as the russian bots!)

The swings today are wild. Obviously market trying to process info in real time, with initial reaction that the substantial equivalent of QE is back on, but now maybe they think it is not.
mo e
post 1678884353 03-13-2023, 12:59 PM
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#2728
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If anyone has a long timeline and a potential huge gain on junior preferred shares- FNMAK are the junior shares with par value $50 and a dividend of 5.5% assuming they are legit back out of government control. They are trading at $2.55 today so I scooped some more after buying initially at 2.65. If put back on public markets $2.50 is the yearly dividend you’d see once dividend is reinstated.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678885873 03-13-2023, 01:27 PM
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#2729
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Had a meeting with the guys in charge of lending at my FI, they are considering giving a discount on existing variable rate helocs because they are projecting we will forclose of too many homes this year
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post 1678887103 03-13-2023, 01:50 PM
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#2730
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Originally Posted By hardestgainer⏩
Had a meeting with the guys in charge of lending at my FI, they are considering giving a discount on existing variable rate helocs because they are projecting we will forclose of too many homes this year
Oh lawwwwd lol. Canada is truly fukt tho

Edit: on the variable rate thing I mean.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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