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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1680521123 04-10-2023, 09:11 AM
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#3031
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America needs to do something about OPEC... can't keep relaying on them

whatever that means

nuclear plants, wind, solar, etc... whatever but better start soon or we will be f'ed
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1680523443 04-10-2023, 09:52 AM
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#3032
  1. Deathstroke
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Im just thinking about it. My sister and her husband take every dime they have and they invest it. But don’t talk to them much.

Im pretty lost . It’s like all foreign to me.

I just asked my sister she won’t text me back. Im being serious.

Ps. Are WWE shares profitable now that they’ve been merged with ufc?

Pps. Like a 13 year old boy touching his very first boob *in a high pitched voice* “it’s my first time I’ve never done this before!

If wrong thead lemme know delete this post and whoopie.
post 1680524243 04-10-2023, 10:08 AM
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#3033
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
America needs to do something about OPEC... can't keep relaying on them

whatever that means

nuclear plants, wind, solar, etc... whatever but better start soon or we will be f'ed
North America isn’t really reliant on Middle East at all except for managing world demand. Worst comes to worst the US/Canada could easily stop exporting and be self sufficient.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1680524813 04-10-2023, 10:16 AM
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#3034
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
North America isn’t really reliant on Middle East at all except for managing world demand. Worst comes to worst the US/Canada could easily stop exporting and be self sufficient.
This.

Between America, Canada, and Mexico, North America is completely self-sufficient. It would take some trade policy chances, but I'm not worried about OPEC.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1680525073 04-10-2023, 10:21 AM
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#3035
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
America needs to do something about OPEC... can't keep relaying on them

whatever that means

nuclear plants, wind, solar, etc... whatever but better start soon or we will be f'ed
I use to work for a company that built natural gas and nuclear power plants. We were building them all over the US. NG power plants take anywhere from 1-3 years depending on the scale. Nuclear is 5-10 years. We just shut down a small nuclear plant locally, which cost us billions to do. They built next to a river that had a 100year type flood. IDK what's with these experts building next to natural disaster prone areas.

We definitely don't need OPEC to be self-reliant. The reserves in Alaska are quite notable in size and that's only the oil that we know about since it's mostly unexplored. A good strategy that the US may be doing is not exploring or producing from these to be the last man standing? Not sure.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
post 1680526923 04-10-2023, 10:49 AM
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#3036
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Yeah things are happening but global oil markets will remain powerful for decades to come, there isn't even enough skilled labour to make it happen more quickly at this point regardless of how much money is thrown at it

Just finishing up a project right now that is a natural gas power plant designed to provide electricity for a few hundred thousand homes
post 1680542743 04-10-2023, 02:39 PM
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#3037
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Yeah things are happening but global oil markets will remain powerful for decades to come, there isn't even enough skilled labour to make it happen more quickly at this point regardless of how much money is thrown at it

Just finishing up a project right now that is a natural gas power plant designed to provide electricity for a few hundred thousand homes
Were you at the Cascade project by Edson? Hard to get information on that one. Supposed to be online end of this year but I'm assuming early 2024.
Power Engineer Crew
Tradie Life
post 1680546853 04-10-2023, 03:46 PM
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#3038
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Originally Posted By Bavaria⏩
Were you at the Cascade project by Edson? Hard to get information on that one. Supposed to be online end of this year but I'm assuming early 2024.
Left you some reps, but not that project no

That's a fukn huge power plant
post 1680551843 04-10-2023, 05:17 PM
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#3039
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I use to work for a company that built natural gas and nuclear power plants. We were building them all over the US. NG power plants take anywhere from 1-3 years depending on the scale. Nuclear is 5-10 years. We just shut down a small nuclear plant locally, which cost us billions to do. They built next to a river that had a 100year type flood. IDK what's with these experts building next to natural disaster prone areas.

We definitely don't need OPEC to be self-reliant. The reserves in Alaska are quite notable in size and that's only the oil that we know about since it's mostly unexplored. A good strategy that the US may be doing is not exploring or producing from these to be the last man standing? Not sure.
didn't the man the myth the legend Joe Biden approved drilling in alaska just a few weeks ago? LOL
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1680555983 04-10-2023, 06:43 PM
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#3040
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Originally Posted By Deathstroke⏩
Im just thinking about it. My sister and her husband take every dime they have and they invest it. But don’t talk to them much.

Im pretty lost . It’s like all foreign to me.

I just asked my sister she won’t text me back. Im being serious.

Ps. Are WWE shares profitable now that they’ve been merged with ufc?

Pps. Like a 13 year old boy touching his very first boob *in a high pitched voice* “it’s my first time I’ve never done this before!

If wrong thead lemme know delete this post and whoopie.
Start watching The Money Guy Show on YT. Their video on index funds is a great starting point.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1680602873 04-11-2023, 12:39 PM
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#3041
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Anyone see that big box grocery stores are closing in shythole areas? Whole Foods said fuk off San Francisco. Walmart closing 4 stores in Chicago. Think they are closing stores in nice areas?

I hope dems in both locations see this for what it is. Their failed policies that destroyed their police force and essentially legalizing theft. Pandering to the people who hate law and order doesn’t work- you can only push so far before everyone else pushes back.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1680605983 04-11-2023, 01:27 PM
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#3042
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[QUOTE=RobParks2M;1680602873]Anyone see that big box grocery stores are closing in shythole areas? Whole Foods said fuk off San Francisco. Walmart closing 4 stores in Chicago. Think they are closing stores in nice areas?

I hope dems in both locations see this for what it is. Their failed policies that destroyed their police force and essentially legalizing theft. Pandering to the people who hate law and order doesn’t work- you can only push so far before everyone else pushes back.[/QUOTE


Carbonfibre supports all of that! He loves Joe Biden!!
post 1680633193 04-11-2023, 09:04 PM
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#3043
  1. SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Anyone see that big box grocery stores are closing in shythole areas? Whole Foods said fuk off San Francisco. Walmart closing 4 stores in Chicago. Think they are closing stores in nice areas?

I hope dems in both locations see this for what it is. Their failed policies that destroyed their police force and essentially legalizing theft. Pandering to the people who hate law and order doesn’t work- you can only push so far before everyone else pushes back.
Can confirm Walmart left Portland last month, now the remaining Walmarts everything is locked up even **** that is like 50 cents, super annoying and inconvenient to shop there now so I don’t anymore.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1680649113 04-12-2023, 06:48 AM
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#3044
  1. camaleom
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Can confirm Walmart left Portland last month, now the remaining Walmarts everything is locked up even **** that is like 50 cents, super annoying and inconvenient to shop there now so I don’t anymore.
Walmart has no security and it's getting rid of associates... what they think is going to happen?

with that being said, they put a statement yesterday about the stores not being profitable for 10 years+
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1680651293 04-12-2023, 07:47 AM
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#3045
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This guy at 92 years old, just insane

post 1680651953 04-12-2023, 08:04 AM
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#3046
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
Walmart has no security and it's getting rid of associates... what they think is going to happen?

with that being said, they put a statement yesterday about the stores not being profitable for 10 years+
It’s crazy because those stores probably do $200m+ in yearly sales and still lost money for 10 straight years. Dam. Goodbye jobs and goodbye place to buy food and get grandma her drugs. Once again the shyty minority ruins things for everyone else in the area. Since thefts aren’t punished it’ll just shift the theft problems to the next closest store till that closes too.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1680655423 04-12-2023, 09:14 AM
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#3047
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
You live in a chithole city brah? Sounds like you personally affected lol
I just empathize with people stuck in some of those areas who are going to struggle to access a decent store to buy fresh food at a reasonable price.

Also CPI looked good. Oil is holding $80 easy. Bonds still pretty ugly. Does anyone know the last day to buy Ibonds and keep the 6% interest rate for the next 6 months? Also, has anyone calculated the interest rate for the next 6 months? I haven’t bought any more since last year. I don’t know if the rates are even going to be worth buying if the next 6 month rate sucks.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1680656483 04-12-2023, 09:28 AM
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#3048
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Just think how much worse inflation would have been over the last decade if major outlets like Walmart weren't eating losses and were actually pricing things sufficiently to turn a profit

Inflation reduction in this sense is effectively margin compression, people should be thankful
post 1680659643 04-12-2023, 10:14 AM
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#3049
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After this morning CPI report.

Fed peak rate is one more hike away.

FOMC in May has 25BPS hike and that is all.

Than pause and cuts start July.




Only way to bring this market down now is if they increase pace of QT and debt ceiling goes to shiit July.

Pretty sure debt ceiling will be non issue.

ATM SP 500 is locked into 3950-4200 range.
post 1680659973 04-12-2023, 10:17 AM
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#3050
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One-month pause, that'll do it!

Market will remain optimistic until it has no choice but to acquiesce at the absolute last moment
post 1680660113 04-12-2023, 10:19 AM
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#3051
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^^^^

Fed speakers have turned dovish too.


Think there is bit of we can't service the debt at high fund rates as well at play.

They probably don't want 5% fund rates too.

So praying and hoping this inflation falling is going down.
post 1680660693 04-12-2023, 10:28 AM
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#3052
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BoC has already been paused since February, thinking rates will come down like that is pure hopium IMO. There has been almost no pain so far, and the unemployment rate in the US most recently moved downward lol


Was just watching Buffett talk about Volcker back in the '80s needing Secret Service protection
post 1680662253 04-12-2023, 10:47 AM
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#3053
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I thought there would be no rate cuts this year per Jpow?
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1680662843 04-12-2023, 10:55 AM
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#3054
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I thought there would be no rate cuts this year per Jpow?
Bond market reading through that like butter.

If inflation keeps coming down why would they keep rates up?

This crude bump is going to be problem for April CPI print atm.



In 1 hour we get FOMC minutes.

Last FOMC there was leak that group was 50/50 on March 25BPS hike or no hike.

They want to pause.

About rate cutting yeah I dunno July for rate cuts is too fast.


If Jerome doesn't want repeat of previous fed presidents.

It would make sense to say it again next month no rate cuts this year.

Kill inflation for good instead of cutting and than having to raise again. (that would cause nasty market puke)
post 1680663973 04-12-2023, 11:13 AM
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#3055
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Yeah rates will stay up as inflation comes down because the lessons of The Great Inflation: cutting rates too early will result in inflation spiking back up. A pause of course does not mean cuts, their plan was to reach a restrictive rate, pause for some amount of time, and watch as inflation continues dropping -- the pause will be when the pain actually occurs.

6 month pause minimum IMO
post 1680664863 04-12-2023, 11:25 AM
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#3056
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I think it will be very difficult in Q3 for Fed.

Election cycle begins Aug/Sept.

You know that both sides will be promising fiscal spending left and right.
post 1680665063 04-12-2023, 11:28 AM
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#3057
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Yeah rates will stay up as inflation comes down because the lessons of The Great Inflation: cutting rates too early will result in inflation spiking back up. A pause of course does not mean cuts, their plan was to reach a restrictive rate, pause for some amount of time, and watch as inflation continues dropping -- the pause will be when the pain actually occurs.

6 month pause minimum IMO
They should wait 6 months from last hike. Which means they won’t they’ll cut far sooner LOL


The big kicker no one seems to be talking about is student loan repayment turning back on. 2nd biggest source of debt behind housing will cut household purchasing power dramatically. Pain is gonna be felt unless they decide to keep extending which seems possible. Biden admin doesn’t want to turn payments back on. Even with $10/20k forgiveness I think people previously adding into savings/investments will be shifting to repayment.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1680666023 04-12-2023, 11:44 AM
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#3058
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They really need to wait until they're sure it won't spike up. But you look at speculative stocks and stuff like Bitcoin back at $30k, I know what that tells me


You want to see some crazy spending by the US Govt, check out the guidance interpretation coming out from the Treasury re: Inflation Reduction Act EV incentives. Congressional Budget Office had an $85million impact from the new EV incentive in 2023, about 11,000 vehicles qualifying for the full $7500 taxpayer-funded incentive, now vehicles like the F150 Lightning and Model Y regular trims are apparently qualifying for the full amount plus a swath of other vehicles qualifying for half plus the 3.5 month grace period we're coming out of where everything qualified.

That budget is being absolutely obliterated
post 1680669173 04-12-2023, 12:47 PM
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#3059
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
After this morning CPI report.

Fed peak rate is one more hike away.

FOMC in May has 25BPS hike and that is all.

Than pause and cuts start July.




Only way to bring this market down now is if they increase pace of QT and debt ceiling goes to shiit July.

Pretty sure debt ceiling will be non issue.

ATM SP 500 is locked into 3950-4200 range.
RIP USD? Below 100 by summer? And S&P 500 over 4400?
post 1680671373 04-12-2023, 01:29 PM
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#3060
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Fed minutes out . . . they admit they expect banking crisis to lead to recession.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-...utes-show.html

WASHINGTON – Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday.

Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.

Though Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the banking sector “is sound and resilient,” staff economists said the economy will take a hit.

“Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years,” the meeting summary said.
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