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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1681036823 04-18-2023, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Supposedly 40% of breakthrough designations succeed; but I havenMt found anything for both breakthrough + fast track. Regardless, going to double down now, worth it
I added 20,000 more the last couple days at 0.05. Got 240,000 now
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post 1681037763 04-18-2023, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted By bsmit107⏩
I'm starting to think all this talk of "recession" over the last 6-8 months was just to discourage the average person from investing.......market is going up & up from here.

We wouldn't want the plebs to make any money.
That's literally how the market cycle works. Create insane FUD to scare out investors, keep that going for a while so they never reinvest, start pumping it slowly so you don't set off any alarms and make them FOMO in early.... then once you've bought up all the shares possible near the bottom, you start releasing positive news, big gains come in, people FOMO in at higher prices, and the whales dump their bags on them.

Rinse and repeat until the end of time because people are very dumb.

If you're buying during periods of extreme FUD, you're doing it right.
post 1681039753 04-18-2023, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted By Tradercel⏩
That's literally how the market cycle works. Create insane FUD to scare out investors, keep that going for a while so they never reinvest, start pumping it slowly so you don't set off any alarms and make them FOMO in early.... then once you've bought up all the shares possible near the bottom, you start releasing positive news, big gains come in, people FOMO in at higher prices, and the whales dump their bags on them.

Rinse and repeat until the end of time because people are very dumb.

If you're buying during periods of extreme FUD, you're doing it right.
This is me. Went hard in Spring 2020, then normalized for 2021 and til May 2022, then have been going hardest ever from May 2022 to present day.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1681039983 04-18-2023, 09:46 AM
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easy to say that now.

there was lot of back drops in October lows that didn't point to market rallying 700 points higher.

-fed hikes
-inflation
-ukraine war
-energy prices
-debt ceiling
-regional bank failure


market ate through all this like it was nothing.


also if you did not own the right stocks you actually didn't go anywhere since October low.


only lesson here is buy index funds and play long long
post 1681041323 04-18-2023, 10:05 AM
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My portfolio compared to the indices

post 1681042203 04-18-2023, 10:18 AM
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^^^^^^

you can print that out and post it on wall

legit bought the true bottom for oil stocks.

that is once in life time dip buy.



now as we go forward sp/nq will catch up to you.

all the investment and advancements are coming from tech.
post 1681043043 04-18-2023, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
^^^^^^

you can print that out and post it on wall

legit bought the true bottom for oil stocks.

that is once in life time dip buy.

now as we go forward sp/nq will catch up to you.

all the investment and advancements are coming from tech.
I'd call this the Graham & Dodd, Buffett & Munger philosophy: I was watching oil stonks for a while before COVID hit and know the industry very well, was on an O&G site when everything cratered. Preparation met opportunity there, I was ready to go balls deep investing in something that I understood and thought was suddenly disconnected from reality where things lost 2/3rds of their value but nothing changed on the ground. Actually sat in a meeting one day where some of the guys were talking about penny stocks as everything dropped, and I said I had just thrown some money into CNRL.

COVID was probably a once in a lifetime opportunity in terms of everything cratering, I didn't know the discounted value of the companies but knew that it would be tough to go wrong buying at 20-year lows. More opportunities will come, just gotta prepare for them + know something inside and out + not get distracted by all the noise and exciting things because all you need is a handful of correct moves. If you don't have specialized knowledge in something, then averaging into the indices is the way to go.
post 1681045023 04-18-2023, 10:54 AM
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^^^^

Amazing buy with inside info.


There will never be moment again where oil futures go negative in this life time.
post 1681050263 04-18-2023, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
My portfolio compared to the indices

That was a baller move when you did it. I was too much of a pansy to go hard on it, but I did get a little out of it.

@Tug I don’t call it a lotto for nothing lol
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post 1681055483 04-18-2023, 01:28 PM
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Where my dividend bros @ ?

Bought EPD/MMP Feb 23rd 2023 and up 4% / 6.3%

Looks like I'm due for both dividend payments very soon

Still up 80% on XOM as of today after locking in profits a while ago

Down 0.75% on my MO but that's not counting the divy re-investments so have a decent amount of free shares

BKCC continues to cuck me, down 16% luckily its only 7% of my account

So in total I got almost a 40% gain in about 18 months, but as you can see I held through some crazy chit:



Doing things this way has treated me much better than YOLOing tech stonks, although that worked too...But things today aren't like before
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1681057133 04-18-2023, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Where my dividend bros @ ?

Bought EPD/MMP Feb 23rd 2023 and up 4% / 6.3%

Looks like I'm due for both dividend payments very soon

Still up 80% on XOM as of today after locking in profits a while ago

Down 0.75% on my MO but that's not counting the divy re-investments so have a decent amount of free shares

BKCC continues to cuck me, down 16% luckily its only 7% of my account

So in total I got almost a 40% gain in about 18 months, but as you can see I held through some crazy chit:



Doing things this way has treated me much better than YOLOing tech stonks, although that worked too...But things today aren't like before
Is this in your long-term account or are these more short-term plays?

I'm still pulling good dividends from my retirement accounts, but don't have any individual stock holdings in those. Just index funds and I'd say about 15% of my total retirement account sum is in VYM. BND pays a nice dividend as well, but I also have an American Funds fund that pays 6% too.
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post 1681066203 04-18-2023, 04:16 PM
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#3132
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Is this in your long-term account or are these more short-term plays?

I'm still pulling good dividends from my retirement accounts, but don't have any individual stock holdings in those. Just index funds and I'd say about 15% of my total retirement account sum is in VYM. BND pays a nice dividend as well, but I also have an American Funds fund that pays 6% too.
That is my personal schwab long term dividend only account which I started almost two years ago, I babysit it and make sure if I'm taking profits/buying new divy stocks that it matches up with the next ex dividend dates so I'm not missing out on the compounding interest since I re-invest 100%

But yes most of my positions so far have been for a year or longer

I had to lock in profits when my XOM almost doubled (trimmed half) and immediately put it into other 7% + divvy stocks
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1681101813 04-19-2023, 07:27 AM
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Regional bank earnings for companies not heavily Cali based seem to be fine. All is good once again?!? Keep the hikes coming??

Edit: looks like Ally wasn’t so great. I think FRC gets wrecked too. Otherwise they’ve looked good. WAL appears solid.
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post 1681106513 04-19-2023, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Regional bank earnings for companies not heavily Cali based seem to be fine. All is good once again?!? Keep the hikes coming??

Edit: looks like Ally wasn’t so great. I think FRC gets wrecked too. Otherwise they’ve looked good. WAL appears solid.
I have a 16 year old local client who I've been talking money with for about a year now. His parents finally let him open a Robinhood account to mess around with and his biggest buy is WAL. He bought in after it dumped a couple of weeks back, so he was happy last night. He messaged me and called himself the Wolf of WAL Street.

I've been relentless in telling him he needs to max out a custodial Roth instead of worrying about individual stocks at this point. He finally got his parents to set up an appt with their financial advisor and he's going to max out his 2023 Roth this week, with his own money, at 16. He's going to be an incredible guy with money and it's awesome to know he'll look back and see how much money I made him by never letting up on him and insisting he gets it done.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1681106823 04-19-2023, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
That is my personal schwab long term dividend only account which I started almost two years ago, I babysit it and make sure if I'm taking profits/buying new divy stocks that it matches up with the next ex dividend dates so I'm not missing out on the compounding interest since I re-invest 100%

But yes most of my positions so far have been for a year or longer

I had to lock in profits when my XOM almost doubled (trimmed half) and immediately put it into other 7% + divvy stocks
Great reply! I was asking because I don't think it's a good idea to be focused more on dividend yields than anything else at this stage for you, especially in retirement accounts. Dividends are fun to see coming in, but you'll likely make more money in the long run if you focus on stocks with more annual growth potential.

It sounds like you're not chasing the almighty dividend over annual returns, though, which is great. You're too young for that!
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1681112633 04-19-2023, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
I have a 16 year old local client who I've been talking money with for about a year now. His parents finally let him open a Robinhood account to mess around with and his biggest buy is WAL. He bought in after it dumped a couple of weeks back, so he was happy last night. He messaged me and called himself the Wolf of WAL Street.

I've been relentless in telling him he needs to max out a custodial Roth instead of worrying about individual stocks at this point. He finally got his parents to set up an appt with their financial advisor and he's going to max out his 2023 Roth this week, with his own money, at 16. He's going to be an incredible guy with money and it's awesome to know he'll look back and see how much money I made him by never letting up on him and insisting he gets it done.
Unfortunately on spread.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
post 1681114683 04-19-2023, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Unfortunately on spread.
No biggie. One of the best parts about training local male youth only is stuff like this.
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post 1681115863 04-19-2023, 11:14 AM
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lowest volatility in market since....2019

holy shiiit

talk about crushing anyone that was shorting this market



no matter what data / earnings is being shoved at it

every dip is being bought both hands
post 1681116843 04-19-2023, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
lowest volatility in market since....2019

holy shiiit

talk about crushing anyone that was shorting this market



no matter what data / earnings is being shoved at it

every dip is being bought both hands
News is balanced with equally insanely bullish and bearish reports.

Bank earnings are awesome
Brookfield defaults on $161 commercial office debt
CPI in line
Bad China news

On that note anyone buying VIX calls?
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post 1681117613 04-19-2023, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
News is balanced with equally insanely bullish and bearish reports.

Bank earnings are awesome
Brookfield defaults on $161 commercial office debt
CPI in line
Bad China news

On that note anyone buying VIX calls?
This is the ripest time to buy some cheap vix calls. They are dirt cheap atm.


June or July or further out in case this regime of low vol continues and market slowly keep moving up and to the right.
post 1681118143 04-19-2023, 11:45 AM
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Sad.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1681119003 04-19-2023, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
This is the ripest time to buy some cheap vix calls. They are dirt cheap atm.


June or July or further out in case this regime of low vol continues and market slowly keep moving up and to the right.
Vix might also be permanently changed due to the increase of 0 DTE trading/hedging. Not sure it will move like it used to except in cases of drastic moves like Russia declaring war type stuff. Looked at July $20c but unsure I wanna pay $400 per contract
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post 1681119903 04-19-2023, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Vix might also be permanently changed due to the increase of 0 DTE trading/hedging. Not sure it will move like it used to except in cases of drastic moves like Russia declaring war type stuff.
0dte stuff does not go into vix calculation.

There is research paper on this read few weeks ago.

Basically 0dte provides just bit of interday vol that resets everyday.

Vix is calculated 30 days forward.


Market atm can't sell if the earnings are good and so far they seem to be just fine.

There is no way around this.

Black swan events are just meh /once every blue moon.



I have been buying dips on futures month plus now. Sellers not found.

There is no need to do anything different atm.

Counter trend trading does not work here.

Rather trade with market than try and time tops or bottom.


After that regional banking crisis whatever Fed did under the hood.

Market has gone 300+ points.

Every dip was buy.

I will keep doing it till something different happens.




now as for VIX calls.

3-4 month out calls are now cheapest they been in long time.

does it mean it will work ?

at this rate probably not.

however as cheap hedge to protect long portfolio doesn't seem like bad risk to reward play.
post 1681121433 04-19-2023, 12:35 PM
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#3144
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
0dte stuff does not go into vix calculation.

There is research paper on this read few weeks ago.

Basically 0dte provides just bit of interday vol that resets everyday.

Vix is calculated 30 days forward.
Market atm can't sell if the earnings are good and so far they seem to be just fine.
There is no way around this.

Black swan events are just meh /once every blue moon.



I have been buying dips on futures month plus now. Sellers not found.

There is no need to do anything different atm.

Counter trend trading does not work here.

Rather trade with market than try and time tops or bottom.


After that regional banking crisis whatever Fed did under the hood.

Market has gone 300+ points.

Every dip was buy.

I will keep doing it till something different happens.

now as for VIX calls.

3-4 month out calls are now cheapest they been in long time.

does it mean it will work ?

at this rate probably not.

however as cheap hedge to protect long portfolio doesn't seem like bad risk to reward play.
Vix as I understand it measured weighted price of calls and puts over the next 30 days. More 0DTE hedging theoretically will lower over all pricing I would presume.
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post 1681123293 04-19-2023, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Vix as I understand it measured weighted price of calls and puts over the next 30 days. More 0DTE hedging theoretically will lower over all pricing I would presume.
https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/

You can read the paper there.

0dte stuff is not held enough in time to affect 30 day forward price.

Remember market maker / dealer who ever that makes up option curve is predicting price 20-30 days from here on out.


If you buy/sell 0dte spy call or put you are not delta hedging that out further. Its dies at market close. Shelf life is so small there is nothing there.
post 1681124913 04-19-2023, 01:21 PM
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Anybody picking up FRC?

Thoughts?
post 1681125063 04-19-2023, 01:24 PM
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did FRC report earnings yet?

maybe wait for that.
post 1681126643 04-19-2023, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Great reply! I was asking because I don't think it's a good idea to be focused more on dividend yields than anything else at this stage for you, especially in retirement accounts. Dividends are fun to see coming in, but you'll likely make more money in the long run if you focus on stocks with more annual growth potential.

It sounds like you're not chasing the almighty dividend over annual returns, though, which is great. You're too young for that!
Thanks

Yes I do both, got my dividend port (Building till retirement) + other YOLO port with mostly tech

Agreed the YOLO port has done me very well over the years, up until chit hit the fan not too long ago

Still above water but my divy port has been outperforming the YOLO for a lil over a year now and that was the point of my post that dividend portfolios aren't supposed to go up that fast lol

Owned T for years and it was the most boring chit, but after about 5 years of having it the divvy was becoming pretty joocy with the compounding interest

Would re-buy if T drops to 14-15ish again

Never thought I would be trading my divy stocks like this but its working..
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1681127603 04-19-2023, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/

You can read the paper there.

0dte stuff is not held enough in time to affect 30 day forward price.

Remember market maker / dealer who ever that makes up option curve is predicting price 20-30 days from here on out.


If you buy/sell 0dte spy call or put you are not delta hedging that out further. Its dies at market close. Shelf life is so small there is nothing there.
Ahh makes sense.
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post 1681134253 04-19-2023, 03:48 PM
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tesla earnings no longer priced for max tech growth to moon brah

that auto margins sliding to reality.

free cash flow gone / chance of buy back zero now.

guess time for stock offering later on is possability


they need truck to enter production at some point otherwise not gonna print


also another model maybe model 2 otherwise..

this is weak

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