Thr reason supply is so low is nobody is selling. I have a 2% rate on my current house. Why would I sell and get a 7% rate?


Nobody is gonna move out of their current house now. A 2K mortgage becomes a 3K mortgage

Not true. All these houses owned by boomers will pass down to their kids

Supply and demand dude

Everyone in middle class Iooking for houses around 500-600K. There's very very few people who can afford 2 mil homes so market is a lot less crazy. U have to price the house reasonably.

It's same thing in car sales. We sell our 20K cars over msrp. 60-70K cars often go for msrp. There's very few buyers who can afford that so they move much slower. There's a million ppl looking for 20k cars...

Only if your parents were degenmaxxers and never bought a house / multiple homes. Rest of us will be just fine.

Yep. I have a nice house and so do my parents and my in laws. Both will pass down to me and my wife

This is true.

There's this family I know of that bought a mansion for $975k back in 2005. Today it's only selling for $1.2 million.

Not many people can afford million dollar homes so it makes a lot of sense. The demand just isn't there.

One way to beat this whole housing pricing issue is to just buy expensive in reasonable areas, IMO.

zillow shows the home next door to me sold for 32K two months ago but has it's value at almost 80k now.
that home has been abandoned for a few yrs because the city condemned it and the owners just walked away.

the bank had to hire people to clean it out and that took multiple landscape trailers full of garbage bags not to mention shoveling all the animal chit and dead cats out of the basement.
if they left the windows open it smelled like the elephant house at the zoo in my backyard.

this house is a total gut job and only 1,000 sq ft. with a garage that will barely fit one car and a shared driveway.
just lol if anyone would buy it for 80k.

Wait

All the rentcels told me homeowners would be giving away houses for pennies by now?

The housing market will never go down


With rates being so stupid, nobody will move out so you will have artificially lowered supply for a very long time. Demand is not gonna catch up to supply.

I’d have to know specifically where in the Valley you are looking

In a lot of Phoenix as well as parts of Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, QC/San Tan you can find decent looking houses under $500k. You don’t really see a ton of $700k+ until you get to some parts of Tempe and then Scottsdale/Central Phoenix

But one thing I could say is that there is a ton of demand for houses under $900k because that’s what people can afford with these interest rates. So because demand is still high and supply is incredibly low, it’s keeping prices high

A lot of sellers either own their house outright or they bought when it was cheap and/or when interest rates were cheap. Unless they absolutely need to sell they are still fine listing their house high and then just canceling and waiting if they don’t get what they want. There are a ton more canceled/expired listings than there were last year

If I would give any house buying advice it would be wait til we see a substantial dip in interest rates, possibly end of this year or early next year. There will be a lag between the interest rates lowering and prices starting to go back up. IMO if you want to buy that would be the best time because you can take advantage of a lower rate before prices go back up

You could also ask for the seller to pay concessions and use that to have the lender buy down your rate for 1-2 years. This is assuming you think rates will lower and you can refinance

I’ve been able to find some good deals still in this market. I’m helping an investor close one in Scottsdale this week that was listed for $950k and we got the seller to accept $710k. You have to put the work in for sure but low ball offers are working out way more often for me this year than they did last year

The days of multiple offers over list price are basically gone unless the house just gets listed super low to begin with. List price is just an arbitrary number, I would write an offer where you feel it makes sense

Hope that helps

What goes up will eventually come back down. I'm gonna laugh my ass off when the bubble pops and the housing market crashes. For people like me who own their home outright without a mortgage, it really doesn't matter. If you sell your house in a down market, you'll be buying another house in a down market. If you sell in an up market, you'll be buying in an up market. It all evens out in the end.

Can you think of a time in history where either the stock market or the housing market crashed and stayed low? Or did they always bounce back?

Lmfao .why should we lower prices? You don't deserve a 'good deal'.

Yeah. I bought for 130k in 2010 (3% fixed rate). Now Zillow says 550k lmao. Retarded how the market is right now.

I don't believe this for a second, this all makes no sense over the long term.

I think the real correction will come when all of the people who overpaid by 50 to 100% during covid go underwater on their loans and start walking away from the trash they bought, that includes investors. All it takes is some of them realizing the market's going south and they want to get out before it totally tanks. So far the market is doubling down on insanity and things are still going up despite the rate hikes. The people who buy now will be fuked the hardest.

There's also no shortage of homes, people just aren't budging because they're locked in at insanely low rates and nothing's forcing them to move. The people who bought pre-covid and refinanced at 2% win regardless of what ends up happening.

already repped you.

I'm not in the market, I just hopped on zillow today after seeing a very nice home for sale in central phoenix I'd have guessed it to be $2.5m but it was 1.7.... Seemed low, but then I saw the god damn zillow map and WAS ROFLing at the prices of some cookie-cutter chit-tier homes in the valley right now. Ho lee fuk.

Can't even imagine paying $500k++ for some of the lifeless garbage people have listed right now.

They always bounce back

Anybody who thinks house market will crash is an idiot. You have artificially lowered supply that will stay low for a very long time. Why would someone sell a house they have at 2% interest to move somewhere at 7% interest? The difference is insane

I see so much of this in the south, especially in Florida.

Prices are not dropping because supply is very low. That's not going to change anytime soon. Why the **** would I move when I have a 1700 payment at 2% interest?

It's the same in a lot of areas. The pool of people who can afford under a million is much much larger than those who can afford over.

Why would investors walk away from cash flowing assets though? I’m cash flowing around $500/month on average including all expenses and property management. Rents have been steady and even slightly increasing. Even if the property values dip, wouldn’t I just hold on until they eventually go back up?

And there’s an incredible shortage of homes lol

Prices at this point are completely disconnected from reality, and the people who will pay them will regret it in the future. I addressed what you wrote in the last sentence of the post you quoted.

I know lol

Same here. I'm in New Smyrna and prices are up about 80-100% in the past 4 years. I'm glad I own, I just wish I bought bigger a few years ago

Out of curiosity, what income is needed to afford million+?

Most people don't do that. When things go up, especially dramatically like during covid, people think it's the new normal and things will only go up forever. When they go down dramatically, the opposite happens, people think the party's over and they dump.

Same thing happened during covid itself, I was arguing with people on here to not take the shots and wait it out, and a ton of people here were insisting they had to for work or travel and that the shots were the new normal. Look at where we are now with that.

Gotcha, Central Phoenix is also a mixed bag. If you are anywhere between like 7th Ave to 64th St, Indian School to Northern, chit box houses will sell for $500k+ just due to land value alone. Builders will buy a 1000 square foot house with an 8k square foot lot, scrape it and build a brand new 2 story 3000+ square foot home and sell for $2-3M+

Prices get a lot more tame outside of Phoenix and Scottsdale lol

More than you can afford, pal.

You’ll want to be making at least $120-$150k to not feel house poor

House listings are way way down from the past. You're smoking crack. Do your research


Also you have very stubborn buyers who have paid off houses/very cheap mortgages with a 2% interest rate. There's no motivation to move off the price. Why would that change? If you own 200K on a 600K house with a 1500 payment, why would you move unless you're getting top dollar? If people don't want to offer you top dollar, you just keep the house


2017-2020 put people in a great position with very cheap interest rates. Nobody feels any urgency to sell