Forum
»
**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
08-18-2023, 12:41 PM
-
#4051
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
-
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 14,775
- Rep Power: 55757
-
-
Originally Posted By baroni01⏩
Yep, fully Vanguard for my self-managed accounts (Roth and self-managed brokerage).Hey you said you're mostly Vanguard, would you recommend their Cash Plus Account it's at 4.7% ? I have the Marcus Acct. at 4.3% .. I've heard some people saying to keep it in VMFXX, I mean as far as just emergency savings go..
Honestly, I just keep any 'cash' in VMFXX. It's pulling over 5% right now and has been right around 5% for several months. I just use my PayPal account for spending money and the cash in VMFXX just sits there and makes me about $100.00 every month.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
08-18-2023, 01:47 PM
-
#4052
08-19-2023, 03:37 PM
-
#4053
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
I can't help it boyos gonna keep beating the drum.
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48556/display
https://www.freddiemac.com/investors...23_release.pdf
Net earnings Q2 combined: $7.9B ($5B Fannie and $2.9B Fred)
Net worth: $111B ($69B fannie and $42B freddie)
Most estimates figure the combo needs at least $150B in recapitalization to be considered for release from conservatorship.
I've been hyped about preferred shares, but honestly I might start buying common shares which would likely have a higher ceiling as far as % gain goes. Preferred will max out at Par value and just pay dividends (10-16x current trading prices to their par value on most right now). The shares themselves assuming they don't get wiped- and in all honesty how could anyone say it would be necessary to do such when the company is making billions in profit each quarter- could easily go 20-40x pretty quick if the terms for release are solid. Fannie mae trading at $0.62 cents (likely it drops closer to 50 cents if not back into the 40-50 cent range in the coming weeks/months) and at 62 cents market cap is $712M. I think it can be assumed that the public company would generate $10-12B/year with higher mortgage interest rates and subtracting the $1B in dividends preferred shares will be getting paid roughly. Even if you assume the government gets their $5B in "senior preferred dividends" they still make $5B a year and with a conservative PE of 8 that would still make them worth $40B... That would imply a 57x gain. Again, devils advocate, let's say they exercise their 80% of company in warrants and they dilute down shares that would still make it a x10 on current market cap.
Something interesting I just looked up today- Ackman still has 10% stake of Fannie mae with like 110 million shares. I think his average price is $2ish and he's been holding for almost 10 years now. Faurrrrk that is absolutely brutal. That is the only person or group with a remotely large holding of the either company.
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48556/display
https://www.freddiemac.com/investors...23_release.pdf
Net earnings Q2 combined: $7.9B ($5B Fannie and $2.9B Fred)
Net worth: $111B ($69B fannie and $42B freddie)
Most estimates figure the combo needs at least $150B in recapitalization to be considered for release from conservatorship.
I've been hyped about preferred shares, but honestly I might start buying common shares which would likely have a higher ceiling as far as % gain goes. Preferred will max out at Par value and just pay dividends (10-16x current trading prices to their par value on most right now). The shares themselves assuming they don't get wiped- and in all honesty how could anyone say it would be necessary to do such when the company is making billions in profit each quarter- could easily go 20-40x pretty quick if the terms for release are solid. Fannie mae trading at $0.62 cents (likely it drops closer to 50 cents if not back into the 40-50 cent range in the coming weeks/months) and at 62 cents market cap is $712M. I think it can be assumed that the public company would generate $10-12B/year with higher mortgage interest rates and subtracting the $1B in dividends preferred shares will be getting paid roughly. Even if you assume the government gets their $5B in "senior preferred dividends" they still make $5B a year and with a conservative PE of 8 that would still make them worth $40B... That would imply a 57x gain. Again, devils advocate, let's say they exercise their 80% of company in warrants and they dilute down shares that would still make it a x10 on current market cap.
Something interesting I just looked up today- Ackman still has 10% stake of Fannie mae with like 110 million shares. I think his average price is $2ish and he's been holding for almost 10 years now. Faurrrrk that is absolutely brutal. That is the only person or group with a remotely large holding of the either company.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-20-2023, 09:36 PM
-
#4054
08-21-2023, 10:38 AM
-
#4055
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By xeron⏩
Why is Lyft valuation so low compared to Uber? Uber really got that much more market share?Bought Lyft at 12.48
How long I gotta hold this bag?
How long I gotta hold this bag?
Markets look like they are coiling hard as fuk. Anyone holding long term bonds YTD is down 10% based on TLT which is only 20+ year bond holdings. Banks gotta be getting a little nervous looking at forced sale valuations of their loan book because it’s ugly AF. 1 year drop on TLT is -20%.
I did buy FNMA commons- just a starter 1,000 at 0.58- I’ll buy more sub 50 hopefully closer to .45
Closed my sofi CCs all except the $9 Oct that I thought were getting called for sure. Thank god I didn’t take the loss and roll deeper. I should still close and get ready for next pump which is coming eventually although might have to wait for earnings. Again, sofi doesn’t have the insane book of mortgages/loans at super low interest rates. Lots of people still have 2-4 years on their vehicle loans from major banks that are 2-3% interest. This isn’t great for banks and thankfully sofi wasn’t a bank at that point in time.
Payo chilling and has investor day Sept 21st. I’m guessing they will have something neat to say or it wouldn’t be happening. My $5CSP I wrote in May expired worthless last week and still holding a bunch of $4 CSP for November I’ll probably dump for $5 each to realize the gain.
Nothing super exciting right now but I think something is going to have to give between banks, bond valuations/rates, and investor willingness to continue holding equity vs guaranteed rates on bonds.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-22-2023, 08:05 AM
-
#4056
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Macys in their earning call said credit card delinquency rose faster than they anticipated as a fukking headwind and hurt their quarterly earnings. LOL Jesus Christ I think we are all doomed. Something tells me the UPST gang ain’t gonna be safe. Regular banks likely aren’t either. Is it too late to short PACW and whatever other bank they are merging with?
Student loans haven’t even kicked back in yet. China is full blown looking at a 2007 crash moment in the face too.
Student loans haven’t even kicked back in yet. China is full blown looking at a 2007 crash moment in the face too.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-22-2023, 09:59 AM
-
#4057
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
-
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 14,775
- Rep Power: 55757
-
-
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Auto loan delinquency is pumping by the quarter too. Regardless of how everyone looks on the outside, the 'keeping up with the Jones' crew is rattled behind closed doors.Macys in their earning call said credit card delinquency rose faster than they anticipated as a fukking headwind and hurt their quarterly earnings. LOL Jesus Christ I think we are all doomed. Something tells me the UPST gang ain’t gonna be safe. Regular banks likely aren’t either. Is it too late to short PACW and whatever other bank they are merging with?
Student loans haven’t even kicked back in yet. China is full blown looking at a 2007 crash moment in the face too.
Student loans haven’t even kicked back in yet. China is full blown looking at a 2007 crash moment in the face too.
Tough times ahead for many people, I'm afraid. Reality check times on their standard of living.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
08-22-2023, 01:12 PM
-
#4058
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
I think a lot of people raised their standard of living and have lots of obligations at their current income assuming they’d keep getting inflation related raises and would always have their job. If jobs start disappearing there would be big problems. As it is as long as people are just tightening belts Starbucks and such will probably be seeing the most significant impact. We will see in November how people are liking paying student loans once again. I’m still quite certain we are nearly at the peak of bond yields. I’m feeling 85% certain there won’t be another rate hike from the fed.Auto loan delinquency is pumping by the quarter too. Regardless of how everyone looks on the outside, the 'keeping up with the Jones' crew is rattled behind closed doors.
Tough times ahead for many people, I'm afraid. Reality check times on their standard of living.
Tough times ahead for many people, I'm afraid. Reality check times on their standard of living.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-22-2023, 02:28 PM
-
#4059
- imbeingcereal
- Registered User
-
- imbeingcereal
- Registered User
- Join Date: May 2009
- Age: 36
- Posts: 3,914
- Rep Power: 26058
-
-
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Spot on. I'm almost 100% sure this is what has happened. Lots of people were making money hand over fist in industries like tech/finance for minimally value-adding work. Because the Fed lowered rates so much for so long, this non-value added bullchit was not only rewarded but these people assumed the good times would roll forever and got accustomed to spending a ton of money. The fact that debt was virtually free money only exacerbated things.I think a lot of people raised their standard of living and have lots of obligations at their current income assuming they’d keep getting inflation related raises and would always have their job. If jobs start disappearing there would be big problems. As it is as long as people are just tightening belts Starbucks and such will probably be seeing the most significant impact. We will see in November how people are liking paying student loans once again. I’m still quite certain we are nearly at the peak of bond yields. I’m feeling 85% certain there won’t be another rate hike from the fed.
Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Rates are going up, which means there are alternatives to stocks to make money. The wealth effect is diminishing as peoples' equities lose value, which causes lessening confidence in the economy. Lessening confidence in the economy coupled with people in zombie companies propped up by previously free money = job losses. Between techcels' severance being up (how many of these arrogant tools will still be happy about being laid off when the job market isn't so hot once their free vacation is over?), people needing debt/drawing on investments to stay liquid, and now studnet loan payments resuming, I think we're in for rough sledding here folks.
As for the Fed, I have a feeling they'll hike 1-2 more times to act tough and to give them leeway for when they inevitably cut. I think if they raise next meeting, it's time to start buying 10 years. If we don't cut rates now even moderately, our economy is literally going to be chit this decade and neither stocks nor bonds will provide any return as we mire in stagflation
08-22-2023, 03:14 PM
-
#4060
Some alarms are going off. Saw WSJ articles on job market tightening, salary offers are going down, car delinquencies are up. Recession 2024?
"Today’s average new car loan has a monthly payment north of $750, with an interest rate of 9.5%. For used cars, the average rate is above 13.7%, according to Cox. The average term for loans issued over the past three years is nearly six years"
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance...uyers-18d7b395
"Today’s average new car loan has a monthly payment north of $750, with an interest rate of 9.5%. For used cars, the average rate is above 13.7%, according to Cox. The average term for loans issued over the past three years is nearly six years"
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance...uyers-18d7b395
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
08-22-2023, 04:12 PM
-
#4061
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Tbh I think I’d go 30 year over 10. Better yield and once yields start dropping you’ll see big face value gain. I think they’ve gotten rates up high enough they have room to go down or hold steady to keep inflation from spiking.Spot on. I'm almost 100% sure this is what has happened. Lots of people were making money hand over fist in industries like tech/finance for minimally value-adding work. Because the Fed lowered rates so much for so long, this non-value added bullchit was not only rewarded but these people assumed the good times would roll forever and got accustomed to spending a ton of money. The fact that debt was virtually free money only exacerbated things.
Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Rates are going up, which means there are alternatives to stocks to make money. The wealth effect is diminishing as peoples' equities lose value, which causes lessening confidence in the economy. Lessening confidence in the economy coupled with people in zombie companies propped up by previously free money = job losses. Between techcels' severance being up (how many of these arrogant tools will still be happy about being laid off when the job market isn't so hot once their free vacation is over?), people needing debt/drawing on investments to stay liquid, and now studnet loan payments resuming, I think we're in for rough sledding here folks.
As for the Fed, I have a feeling they'll hike 1-2 more times to act tough and to give them leeway for when they inevitably cut. I think if they raise next meeting, it's time to start buying 10 years. If we don't cut rates now even moderately, our economy is literally going to be chit this decade and neither stocks nor bonds will provide any return as we mire in stagflation
Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Rates are going up, which means there are alternatives to stocks to make money. The wealth effect is diminishing as peoples' equities lose value, which causes lessening confidence in the economy. Lessening confidence in the economy coupled with people in zombie companies propped up by previously free money = job losses. Between techcels' severance being up (how many of these arrogant tools will still be happy about being laid off when the job market isn't so hot once their free vacation is over?), people needing debt/drawing on investments to stay liquid, and now studnet loan payments resuming, I think we're in for rough sledding here folks.
As for the Fed, I have a feeling they'll hike 1-2 more times to act tough and to give them leeway for when they inevitably cut. I think if they raise next meeting, it's time to start buying 10 years. If we don't cut rates now even moderately, our economy is literally going to be chit this decade and neither stocks nor bonds will provide any return as we mire in stagflation
All the negative stories at once might just mean bottom is set and everything just keeps going up. Still a plethora of jobs and lots of manufacturing is ramping up here in the USA again.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-22-2023, 06:13 PM
-
#4062
- SaviorSelfJT
- clownslayer
-
- SaviorSelfJT
- clownslayer
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Posts: 12,855
- Rep Power: 166618
-
-
Just my anecdotal observations about the economy
The tech job market seems to be brutal right now. I open up LinkedIn and see so many former colleagues out of work and asking for referrals. personally I’ve seen anything like this in my time though I wasn’t working during the dot com crash. The overall employment numbers might be good. But these tech workers are at the top of the scale and things like home prices are set at the margin by these guys
I’m starting to see a lot of homes not selling around me. Zillow/redfin estimates are slowly going down. Home sellers getting desperate and keep relisting to reset days on market, uploading new pics, doing open houses, and occasionally lowering price. Still not selling. seems to have started about 6 weeks ago and mortgage rates are up to like 7.5 without any points
So many people who bought homes in the past year were really stretching their budget and emptying their pockets completely to buy. As soon as a major repair comes. Or a job layoff, it’s not going to be pretty for them
The tech job market seems to be brutal right now. I open up LinkedIn and see so many former colleagues out of work and asking for referrals. personally I’ve seen anything like this in my time though I wasn’t working during the dot com crash. The overall employment numbers might be good. But these tech workers are at the top of the scale and things like home prices are set at the margin by these guys
I’m starting to see a lot of homes not selling around me. Zillow/redfin estimates are slowly going down. Home sellers getting desperate and keep relisting to reset days on market, uploading new pics, doing open houses, and occasionally lowering price. Still not selling. seems to have started about 6 weeks ago and mortgage rates are up to like 7.5 without any points
So many people who bought homes in the past year were really stretching their budget and emptying their pockets completely to buy. As soon as a major repair comes. Or a job layoff, it’s not going to be pretty for them
Best lifts:
Bench press: 315x5
Squat: 465x1
Strict press: 205x5
Deadlift: 405x13 (conv tap'n'go with straps)
08-23-2023, 09:40 AM
-
#4063
08-23-2023, 09:59 AM
-
#4064
Originally Posted By SaviorSelfJT⏩
Yeah, there's been a ton of tech layoffs as we've all seen posted here.Just my anecdotal observations about the economy
The tech job market seems to be brutal right now. I open up LinkedIn and see so many former colleagues out of work and asking for referrals. personally I’ve seen anything like this in my time though I wasn’t working during the dot com crash. The overall employment numbers might be good. But these tech workers are at the top of the scale and things like home prices are set at the margin by these guys
I’m starting to see a lot of homes not selling around me. Zillow/redfin estimates are slowly going down. Home sellers getting desperate and keep relisting to reset days on market, uploading new pics, doing open houses, and occasionally lowering price. Still not selling. seems to have started about 6 weeks ago and mortgage rates are up to like 7.5 without any points
So many people who bought homes in the past year were really stretching their budget and emptying their pockets completely to buy. As soon as a major repair comes. Or a job layoff, it’s not going to be pretty for them
The tech job market seems to be brutal right now. I open up LinkedIn and see so many former colleagues out of work and asking for referrals. personally I’ve seen anything like this in my time though I wasn’t working during the dot com crash. The overall employment numbers might be good. But these tech workers are at the top of the scale and things like home prices are set at the margin by these guys
I’m starting to see a lot of homes not selling around me. Zillow/redfin estimates are slowly going down. Home sellers getting desperate and keep relisting to reset days on market, uploading new pics, doing open houses, and occasionally lowering price. Still not selling. seems to have started about 6 weeks ago and mortgage rates are up to like 7.5 without any points
So many people who bought homes in the past year were really stretching their budget and emptying their pockets completely to buy. As soon as a major repair comes. Or a job layoff, it’s not going to be pretty for them
I'm seeing homes staying on the market too. My cousin is trying to sell his. They and their realtor didn't realize their price was like 10% out of line. I'm shopping for a new home to gauge the market. A lot of homes show reduction notices. I'm looking mostly in the SW. There's houses just a couple months ago that would sell in a day. One right next to me has been on the market a few weeks now even after a 5% drop.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
08-23-2023, 11:11 AM
-
#4065
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By _zman⏩
The few houses in my market are having trouble selling now too. One near me is actually for sale (haven’t had a home in my neighborhood for almost a year) and it’s had a price cut already and it’s only been listed 2 weeks. Houses usually don’t last more than a day or 2. When I got mine I put a full offer in within 3 hours of being listed.Yeah, there's been a ton of tech layoffs as we've all seen posted here.
I'm seeing homes staying on the market too. My cousin is trying to sell his. They and their realtor didn't realize their price was like 10% out of line. I'm shopping for a new home to gauge the market. A lot of homes show reduction notices. I'm looking mostly in the SW. There's houses just a couple months ago that would sell in a day. One right next to me has been on the market a few weeks now even after a 5% drop.
I'm seeing homes staying on the market too. My cousin is trying to sell his. They and their realtor didn't realize their price was like 10% out of line. I'm shopping for a new home to gauge the market. A lot of homes show reduction notices. I'm looking mostly in the SW. There's houses just a couple months ago that would sell in a day. One right next to me has been on the market a few weeks now even after a 5% drop.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-23-2023, 11:56 AM
-
#4066
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
- Buy high, sell higher.
-
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
- Buy high, sell higher.
- Join Date: Feb 2009
- Location: Arizona, United States
- Posts: 73,524
- Rep Power: 348838
-
-
I'm going to guess that NVDA gonna get RAPED on earnings this afternoon.
Way too much pumping leading up to it.
RIP.
Way too much pumping leading up to it.
RIP.
08-23-2023, 12:04 PM
-
#4067
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
-
- 2020Wellness
- Author/Trainer
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 14,775
- Rep Power: 55757
-
-
Originally Posted By HMFIC_BROWSIN⏩
Compared to Foot Locker, it can't be that bad, lol. Foot Locker is at the same price right now that it was at in the mid-1980s.I'm going to guess that NVDA gonna get RAPED on earnings this afternoon.
Way too much pumping leading up to it.
RIP.
Way too much pumping leading up to it.
RIP.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
08-23-2023, 12:08 PM
-
#4068
- SaviorSelfJT
- clownslayer
-
- SaviorSelfJT
- clownslayer
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Posts: 12,855
- Rep Power: 166618
-
-
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I can tell you that some were skilled and pulled their weight. Some absolutely were not pulling their weight. Not sure if I could estimate what portion are whichIsn't it just fluff that's getting removed though from the market? Do you know if it's actually valuable tech workers that are being let go? I'm learning tech related things right now and am planning to make a move in mid 2025. Always thought tech workers had an abundance of job opportunities because it's so hard to break into the industry.
Even if someone is skilled they may have been working on products that are ultimately worthless and serve no economic purpose, tech is filled with tons of these jobs
Best lifts:
Bench press: 315x5
Squat: 465x1
Strict press: 205x5
Deadlift: 405x13 (conv tap'n'go with straps)
08-23-2023, 12:21 PM
-
#4069
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
- Buy high, sell higher.
-
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
- Buy high, sell higher.
- Join Date: Feb 2009
- Location: Arizona, United States
- Posts: 73,524
- Rep Power: 348838
-
-
Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
by "raped" I mean drop 10% or so.Compared to Foot Locker, it can't be that bad, lol. Foot Locker is at the same price right now that it was at in the mid-1980s.
08-23-2023, 12:50 PM
-
#4070
- Destor
- Registered User
-
- Destor
- Registered User
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 41
- Posts: 43,481
- Rep Power: 254906
-
-
I'm still not sure what impact AI is supposed to have on companies or why companies would be spending so much on chips to power something they don't know how to monetize
08-23-2023, 01:14 PM
-
#4071
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By HMFIC_BROWSIN⏩
Yeah I bet they trade down, but I bet put buyers get burned by IV crush and in the end all short term options folk lose. What is the implied move? I imagine it’ll drop towards whatever the implied is.by "raped" I mean drop 10% or so.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-23-2023, 01:46 PM
-
#4072
- Destor
- Registered User
-
- Destor
- Registered User
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 41
- Posts: 43,481
- Rep Power: 254906
-
-
Could you imagine if they actually chit the bed after giving that monumental guidance? What a debacle that would be, but I'm sure it won't happen and they wouldn't have given such crazy values without having a high degree of confidence that they could reach them
08-23-2023, 02:45 PM
-
#4073
- Robmnrd
- Who the **** was phone?!
-
- Robmnrd
- Who the **** was phone?!
- Join Date: Jan 2011
- Location: Michigan, United States
- Age: 34
- Posts: 6,472
- Rep Power: 69123
-
-
Thank you based NVDA gods
Glad I literally only sold 3 shares back when it was ~400 lol.
Glad I literally only sold 3 shares back when it was ~400 lol.
MISC Haxball Crew
(Haxball Username: "Jus' Saiyan...")
Misc Positivity and Never Neg Crew
I always pick second to last in the pick a number threads Crew
08-23-2023, 02:46 PM
-
#4074
08-23-2023, 03:11 PM
-
#4075
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
- Buy high, sell higher.
-
- HMFIC_BROWSIN
- Buy high, sell higher.
- Join Date: Feb 2009
- Location: Arizona, United States
- Posts: 73,524
- Rep Power: 348838
-
-
Fuark!
I'm rich. Expected that thing to chit the bed.
I'm rich. Expected that thing to chit the bed.
08-23-2023, 03:13 PM
-
#4076
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
You could always go the other way now and start buying long dated puts since it already popped to the upside, these earnings are not sustainable.Cot damn anyone think NVDA will actually touch $600!! Thought about $600C but chickened out
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-23-2023, 03:27 PM
-
#4077
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
-
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Posts: 17,300
- Rep Power: 92038
-
-
Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I have a hard time believing their sales estimates get axed between now and the next quarter. Their projects and contract aren’t short term so they’ve probably locked in whatever they estimated for sales on the next quarter and anything they get done deal wise in the mean time is what pushes them over the top. I agree though that they have dramatically increased expectations and once they have to tell everyone they can no longer reach 100% yoy growth they’ll get repriced.You could always go the other way now and start buying long dated puts since it already popped to the upside, these earnings are not sustainable.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
08-23-2023, 03:44 PM
-
#4078
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I'm not saying they crash tomorrow but I think it's very likely long dated puts will become very profitable, if they keep going up in the short term then good, buy more puts and make even more money when it does crash because it will.I have a hard time believing their sales estimates get axed between now and the next quarter. Their projects and contract aren’t short term so they’ve probably locked in whatever they estimated for sales on the next quarter and anything they get done deal wise in the mean time is what pushes them over the top. I agree though that they have dramatically increased expectations and once they have to tell everyone they can no longer reach 100% yoy growth they’ll get repriced.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-23-2023, 04:43 PM
-
#4079
Damn I'm glad I put so much into NVDA. Unfortunately put quite a bit in AMD, but it's doing somewhat ok.
NVDA is holding up my entire portfolio basically. COST and MSFT aren't doing too bad, but obv not an NVDA.
NVDA is holding up my entire portfolio basically. COST and MSFT aren't doing too bad, but obv not an NVDA.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
08-23-2023, 04:53 PM
-
#4080
Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Seems to me Nvidia is holding everything up for now but when Nvidia starts to crash you will know the crash is on and it will be broad.Damn I'm glad I put so much into NVDA. Unfortunately put quite a bit in AMD, but it's doing somewhat ok.
NVDA is holding up my entire portfolio basically. COST and MSFT aren't doing too bad, but obv not an NVDA.
NVDA is holding up my entire portfolio basically. COST and MSFT aren't doing too bad, but obv not an NVDA.
If the markets do crash then Nvidia is the cash cow if you are looking to short something and Meta is not a bad pick either.
You prob won't make more money on anything else unless it's something obscure.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
Bookmarks
-
- Digg
-
- del.icio.us
-
- StumbleUpon
-
-
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts