Yields and oil up bigly. Odd day.

I think it’s time to buy the VIX boyos. 13.84 gonna pop one way or another imo.

What's do you think the optimal play is? I def think vol will spike soon and want to find a way to hedge my long index positions.

ROKU has tons of upside potential. Been in calls for two weeks now

You still on those Dis 2025 calls?

The chart is looking quite ugly.

Looks like it can go to $45.

I might research their market share compared to Nvidia then to find trends. Nvidia seems to have one of the best streaming machines, which would concern me if its market share is going up.

Will not buy another Roku TV and I ain't buying the company for that reason

Would not buy any company that tries using tricks and other strategies to shoehorn you into signing up for stuff. With the Roku TV I had, you'd get shunted into a subscription screen if you didn't hit exactly the right button when the screensaver was running.

My screen are all LG, none of them try that and I'll switch brands if they ever do try it -- that would be a sign the company is in trouble

This was before AH jump itm off earnings miss

Let’s see if chit holds til the AM

Edit: nm wtf it wasn’t a miss?

hope it holds for you bruh. volatility crush will be brutal tomorrow. GL.

Bros diluting $300 million in shares… ooof. Probably not a bad idea to trade equity to pay down expensive debt but does unfortunate things for share value. Definitely oversold if it hangs around $25-26 tomorrow imo.

If there is one thing I cannot stand it’s share dilution. I’ve been out of BROS for about a year but still bummed as they are a local company here in Oregon.

I don’t think anyone likes dilution, but far better to dilute than use debt. Look at Tesla and how much they’ve raised with equity vs using debt which would have crippled them. Bros will be better off in the long run.

Can someone explain to me why everyone think oil price is going to go up big over the next few months?

Im no expert but from what ive seen on the news over the last few days..... saudi and russian said to keep supply low. Biden just cancled some oil leases.

Its going to be horrible for inflation. More rate hikes coming. I never realized how important affordable engery was until biden came into office.

Another great trading day. After DXY bottomed out at 9:10 central this morning. Bought SPY outs with 0 DTE and cashed out a solid 30%.

This **** is becoming too ****ing easy.

Crude inventories are back to the lows, OPEC is curtailing production and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at the lowest level it has been going back to the early 1980s

The world is also consuming more oil than ever before

Pot stocks rallying pretty hard again

Made a quick 20+% gain on CGC this morning, would have made double my profit if I held to now...pretty crazyyy

Anyone else fukin around with this chit? Do NOT hold over night lol

Is there anyway that oil tanks? Everyone I see everyone is bullish on oil. As a contrarian investor and trader I always want to take the other side.

Trying to research ways in which the price of oil drops.

Global economy slowing badly could tank oil, but its seemingly doing well even as China struggles. If consumption drops, will OPEC just prop it up more?

Another oil price war would do it, if OPEC+ floods the market again.

US and Canada are already putting more on the market than ever before I think

Wat lol? Oil is only like 5% of the S&P despite making up over 10% of it's earnings. A lot of solid O&G stonks are trading below 10x while the market is >25. Nobody is bullish on oil and the current sentiment is all in money-losing tech or AI/Tesla speculation. Oil's been artificially suppressed by Sleepy Joe releasing the SPR and China not resuming to growth as quickly as thought/general economic malaise.

There will always be drops in oil due to the cyclicality of it. The long-term thesis, however, is that O&G will:

1. Continue to be a long-term part of the energy mix going forward, even if renewables continue to gain share
2. Emerging markets/countries around the world will still require a lot more oil & gas than they have previously
3. We may be approaching peak oil supply since a lot of tier 1 sites have been drilled/have slowing production due to the way rig curves work

The only non-speculative reason (i.e. some major technological breakthrough in battery or other renewables that makes them more cost-efficient than fossil fuels) that would cause me to rethink my thesis is if countries go nuclear. Good luck with that though lol. Even then, I'd just change from pure plays (i.e. $EOG, $DVN, $PDX) to integrated till I can DD more nuclear plays

My PSX at an all time high (small position tho)

Oil still thinks it’s headed to the moon.

Bonds seem to be chilling perhaps anticipating no more moves from the fed. I’m just slightly concerned there is a chance the 30 year heads closer to 5% at which point I’d be down 13% from a purchase today. I’ll wait and see if they really think they can squeeze 1 last hike before they break everything. But IMO if rates hold here things will hold for at least a year. I keep pulling up the fed rate to 10 year yield chart to keep the faith lol.

Everything I’ve got is holding fairly steady. Egy creeping back after the Gabon coup is a giant nothingburger.

Payo investor day 21st I think will disappoint. They’ve already reaffirmed guidance for next Q even though comps for last year Q4 were fairly weak.

Sofi doing sofi things.

None of my positions are covered right now so who nose. I’ll look at covering sofi again closer to $9.50 Payo I’d cover if they get close to $7. Egy if they get back to a little over $5 I’d cover too. EGY should have a monster surprise if they ever figure the fuk out that TGA was owed like $60m from Egypt for their backdated contract they ratified.

Still acquiring more fnma commons and just holding preferred. I figure the potential for commons is in the 20-40x range right out the gate if they are ever released which seems more and more likely. There just isn’t a good alternative to what they’ve built in fnma/Fmcc and the way the government has held them in conservatorship for 15 years and sweeping their profits for almost 10 years not allowing them to pay off their senior preferred shares is ridiculous. Collins case was just argued again Friday after they fixed the errors of their initial case. With new precedent from jury trial that net worth sweep was illegal the push to get the release in motion is building. I’m starting to think there isn’t a way forward that doesn’t lead to common shares getting paid out quite well as that will be key for the fed getting their payday too. They also need to complete it BEFORE 2028 when their warrants expire.

Edit:https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/
Pretty good explanation of possible moves to be made that would work best for everyone. This guy was the CFO in the 90s-early 00s of fnma.

Does anyone watch gareth soloway for technical analysis? I kind of like his videos, has a lot of charts he goes thru and explains things pretty clearly

Never heard of him but will give him a shot. I listen to so many different financial youtubers/people on twitter. Yet to find the person who is a lot more accurate and has no bias.

Not trading today or tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what happpens with CPI and PPI!

I’m thinking the data comes out vanillla and we break 450 on SPY.

Just a prediction!

You guys gonna watch Dumb Money? any other recommendations for financial films?





The Big Short




Margin call

AMZN is on its way to ATHs

I will probably watch Dumb Money when it available to stream online illegally!

Here are a few other financial films that are worth a watch:
Wall Street (1987 fim)
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Boiler Room
The Wolf of Wall Street
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Rogue Trader

Love this youtuber. Breaks down the CPI report and what to expect next.


https :// www . youtube .com/ watch?v=ZZoRWd0wam8

(remove spacing for a low poster like me pls & thank you!