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» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1704794341 08-09-2024, 12:44 PM
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#6571
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
Absolutely sick I missed the PLTR dip Monday it was at 21$ now above 29$
If only there was shouting from the rooftops telling everyone to back up the truck at $7

but but sToP shiLLinG a MeMe stOcK eLiaS
post 1704794431 08-09-2024, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust
palantir reaching 500 soon!
fixed typo for you bro
post 1704794871 08-09-2024, 12:52 PM
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#6573
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Alright CD matured. Paid my mom back, paid off the margin. Ended up with $1700 cash in brokerage and $4800 left over from CD, so I took $800 and paid down my free cash advance and put $ in my crypto cash account. Both credit cards have purchases on statements paid off and I still got a CD that's more than 10% of my total investments.

I hadn't been factoring in this first CD and was just planning to pay everything down with every other paycheck for 6-8 months.
post 1704800071 08-09-2024, 02:30 PM
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#6574
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Originally Posted By Elias373
If only there was shouting from the rooftops telling everyone to back up the truck at $7

but but sToP shiLLinG a MeMe stOcK eLiaS
Nah bro I’m 80 percent PLTR I was just hungover Monday and didn’t wake up till market close 😞
post 1704801591 08-09-2024, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
Bro just ignore kusok, he gives good long term advice but he Intentionally ignores that some people are in different situations, like visel I’ll be buying a house sometime this year so I’m looking to pull out 50 percent of my portfolio,”stocks only go up” does nothing to help me
Then take profits, sell 10% or 25% of whatever has hit an all-time high where you tripled your money or whatever, but if you think you’re going to get out at the best time by timing the market top, you’re not going to do anything like that. You got zero chance to time the top, or predict what happens in the world.

Personally I just had to pull out some money for renovation, I used a combination of borrowing against my portfolio, selling some parts of some of my positions which are up a lot, and selling options to raise cash.
post 1704801931 08-09-2024, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted By Abzu
The way people go bankrupt is they believe something with 100% certainty.

It seems like you are saying you can't even think of a way where the fed could not stimulate the economy through money printing.

If we enter another period of huge deflation then you are on track to the breadlines, it's possible and I'll explain it to you in a way that I know you will understand since you love tech stocks, technology will be a part of the reason that the fed can't stimulate the economy if they fail and I think you understand why.
There will not be any breadlines, but if that was to happen, that would be phenomenal, that would be the time to buy, always gotta keep some cash on the side, that’s why it’s important to do a little bit of selling on top to have at least 10% cash position imo.

I’m trying to understand what you have posted, I think you have entered a new phase of doomsday lol, obviously they’re going to print money, there would have to be a lot of steps in between deflation and standing in a breadline, how would that happen? Would my real estate just disappear? My clients? Cash? Every investment the entire stock market would go to zero? What exactly is it that you’re saying? Something that hasn’t happened in 100 years is going to happen next week?
post 1704807371 08-09-2024, 05:41 PM
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#6577
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Anyone have a position in Robin Hood?they had a nice earnings thinking about starting a big position
post 1704817561 08-09-2024, 10:31 PM
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#6578
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Originally Posted By stockbruh
Anyone have a position in Robin Hood?they had a nice earnings thinking about starting a big position
Personally Wouldn’t touch it. Maybe a 1% allocation if technicals and fundamentals suddenly look good. Should be a $10 stock.

Currently amd sitting at a massive swing low. Next swing high is fookin $100 higher meng. Tesla gonna melt faces. Bitcoin will rip. Soon. Sol. Amazon taking over the world. Literally. Google severely undervalued. Clsk probably the best deal right now. Can easily gain 60% in a few days.

Inb4 crash aka sale.
post 1704826971 08-10-2024, 08:13 AM
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#6579
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Originally Posted By kusok
Personally Wouldn’t touch it. Maybe a 1% allocation if technicals and fundamentals suddenly look good. Should be a $10 stock.

Currently amd sitting at a massive swing low. Next swing high is fookin $100 higher meng. Tesla gonna melt faces. Bitcoin will rip. Soon. Sol. Amazon taking over the world. Literally. Google severely undervalued. Clsk probably the best deal right now. Can easily gain 60% in a few days.

Inb4 crash aka sale.
PLTR > all those
post 1704832521 08-10-2024, 11:21 AM
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#6580
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Originally Posted By Elias373
PLTR > all those
Lel but yeah We have a PLTR position, if I understood that industry better it’s possible my position will be much bigger, I’m studying it as much as I can, but I’m still having trouble understanding exactly what PLTR does, and how much money they stand to make in the future and whether someone can come in and do something similar aka how strong is their moat.

I don’t like the stock-based compensation, and range bound nature, but it does make for good wheel strategy stock because it’s not going anywhere. Would love to see the change in fundamentals and a breakout above $40.

But if you think PLTR will outperform Tesla, Solana and bitcoin then you is smoking something, obviously it’s possible, but very unlikely.
post 1704836051 08-10-2024, 01:06 PM
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#6581
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Originally Posted By kusok
Lel but yeah We have a PLTR position, if I understood that industry better it’s possible my position will be much bigger, I’m studying it as much as I can, but I’m still having trouble understanding exactly what PLTR does, and how much money they stand to make in the future and whether someone can come in and do something similar aka how strong is their moat.

I don’t like the stock-based compensation, and range bound nature, but it does make for good wheel strategy stock because it’s not going anywhere. Would love to see the change in fundamentals and a breakout above $40.
What do you understand about them so far? They are a pretty illustrative example of an AI growth stock in development.
post 1704847491 08-10-2024, 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted By kusok
There will not be any breadlines, but if that was to happen, that would be phenomenal, that would be the time to buy, always gotta keep some cash on the side, that’s why it’s important to do a little bit of selling on top to have at least 10% cash position imo.

I’m trying to understand what you have posted, I think you have entered a new phase of doomsday lol, obviously they’re going to print money, there would have to be a lot of steps in between deflation and standing in a breadline, how would that happen? Would my real estate just disappear? My clients? Cash? Every investment the entire stock market would go to zero? What exactly is it that you’re saying? Something that hasn’t happened in 100 years is going to happen next week?
Well, first you need to understand how inflation works, simply putting more money into circulation will not cause inflation, that money needs to have velocity and it depends on which class is spending it.

If poor people are spending it then the costs of things like chicken, cigarettes and alcohol tend to rise, if the middle-class are spending it then the costs of things like gas, cars and single-family homes tend to rise, if the rich are spending then it can actually bring costs down on things like chicken but increase costs on things the middle-class and the poor can't afford in the first place.

So if you print money under a period of low velocity then it won't necessarily increase inflation but that is not the whole story. America currently appears to have a strong economy with unusually high growth but that is due to an unusual lack of competition coming from China, investments have been flowing out of China and into America due to China using covid to create an artificially slow economic environment, I think China is doing this to exacerbate America's inflation by forcing investment here but cutting off the supply of goods. My point in mentioning this is when the fed cuts and China comes back fully online after crushing dissent while under artificial crisis, they will start sending out a huge supply of goods forcing down our inflation while taking our investments forcing down our growth, if the fed cuts while China is doing this then it won't have as great of an impact as you and many other hope.

Beyond all that, you have the deflationary nature of technology and the dominance of online retail over brick and mortar, this online dominance over reality will expand into other areas such as gaming forcing the closure of many commercial buildings.

All that empty land will not sit vacant, there will be homes built in rapid succession all over those vacancies in an effort for individual wealth and economic growth but this will cause an oversupply, home prices will start to deflate as will wealth.

This seems great for the poorer class who thought they could never afford a home but if we enter a period of deflation that the fed can't get us out of then the home will put them in an even worse spot.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1704847671 08-10-2024, 06:07 PM
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There is no guarantee the dollar will even be a major player in the future if a player at all.

Originally Posted By Abzu
I predict the $ will be extinct in ~1 decade.

America has no intention of ever paying its debts and it's basically impossible if we keep the dollar.

There is a long history of countries who reach a certain amount of debt/GDP, when they reach this number(which I won't mention) the country goes bankrupt withoneexception...



CHINA!



I don't know what will replace the dollar, it will likely be a digital currency but I doubt it will be BTC.

The Wiemar Republic changed currency because they had no choice.

The samewillhappen in America.







You have been warned.

You're welcome.

Good luck <3.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1704847991 08-10-2024, 06:13 PM
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#6584
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There is also the problems of declining global birth rates which could be made worse by the start of another major war.

Things aren't looking good right now as you already have smaller wars going on all over the world.

China hasn't made a move yet but they likely will and then you just need the wars to coalesce.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1704848411 08-10-2024, 06:22 PM
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#6585
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Originally Posted By Abzu
There is no guarantee the dollar will even be a major player in the future if a player at all.
I've always wondered how exactly the central bank digital currency (cbdc) will be implemented but nobody in this thread ever comments on it. It's as if it's a stupid conspiracy theory or something.

As for the dollar collapsing.. what I understand is that while BRICS is starting to ramp up, it will take some time before things get problematic. It took supposedly 20 years for the dollar to decline from being 73% of the world's reserve currency down to it's current 59%. With more and more countries moving away from the dollar due to what we did to Russia (limiting their access to their reserve currency held in the USD), eventually the dollar should theoretically lose dominance, and when that happens there is more and more of the dollar coming back into circulation which will increase inflation. Combine that with the return of QE and new wars where we give away even more money to Israel and Ukraine etc, I too think the dollar will eventually collapse.

However, I don't think America will be destroyed due to hyperinflation, because that doesn't serve the globalists interests. There will be some kind of solution, something like CBDC which will be tied to the dollar value or something, and life will go on.

Especially when you take stocks for example, we all have ownership in these companies which is based on the USD. If one day the dollar collapses, the intrinsic value of these companies will remain and our ownership in said companies should still stay proportional based on our shares, right?
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
post 1704848811 08-10-2024, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
Especially when you take stocks for example, we all have ownership in these companies which is based on the USD. If one day the dollar collapses, the intrinsic value of these companies will remain and our ownership in said companies should still stay proportional based on our shares, right?
Tell that to Eduardo Saverin.
post 1704848841 08-10-2024, 06:31 PM
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Whoever has the strongest military controls the world and that’s still the U.S.A,I don’t think this country is collapsing anytime soon
post 1704850321 08-10-2024, 07:06 PM
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#6588
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Originally Posted By GeneralSerpant
Tell that to Eduardo Saverin.
so Cuckerberg creating a new company to buy his existing one and then diluting Saverin is the equivalent to millions of investors being diluted on a massive scale, to the point where the public will lose their trust in the stock market and never invest again? seems legit.
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
post 1704854341 08-10-2024, 09:10 PM
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Just saying it's mechanically possible.
post 1704861651 08-11-2024, 04:13 AM
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Originally Posted By Abzu
Well, first you need to understand how inflation works, simply putting more money into circulation will not cause inflation, that money needs to have velocity and it depends on which class is spending it.

If poor people are spending it then the costs of things like chicken, cigarettes and alcohol tend to rise, if the middle-class are spending it then the costs of things like gas, cars and single-family homes tend to rise, if the rich are spending then it can actually bring costs down on things like chicken but increase costs on things the middle-class and the poor can't afford in the first place.

So if you print money under a period of low velocity then it won't necessarily increase inflation but that is not the whole story. America currently appears to have a strong economy with unusually high growth but that is due to an unusual lack of competition coming from China, investments have been flowing out of China and into America due to China using covid to create an artificially slow economic environment, I think China is doing this to exacerbate America's inflation by forcing investment here but cutting off the supply of goods. My point in mentioning this is when the fed cuts and China comes back fully online after crushing dissent while under artificial crisis, they will start sending out a huge supply of goods forcing down our inflation while taking our investments forcing down our growth, if the fed cuts while China is doing this then it won't have as great of an impact as you and many other hope.

Beyond all that, you have the deflationary nature of technology and the dominance of online retail over brick and mortar, this online dominance over reality will expand into other areas such as gaming forcing the closure of many commercial buildings.

All that empty land will not sit vacant, there will be homes built in rapid succession all over those vacancies in an effort for individual wealth and economic growth but this will cause an oversupply, home prices will start to deflate as will wealth.

This seems great for the poorer class who thought they could never afford a home but if we enter a period of deflation that the fed can't get us out of then the home will put them in an even worse spot.
Deflation periods are not only very rare, but they’re also temporary such as during the great depression, you’re looking at a year or two, a great time to buy, ultimately it’s always about inflation and expansion of the money supply, this will not change, and this cannot change. Thus bears always lose.

Sometimes when I watch an instructional trading investing lecture of some kind from a few years ago, I see people freaking out about some stock being down 50%, they are writing the essays similar to yours about economic problems, what I repeatedly find is that you simply have to check on that stock or ETF Price today, it’s always up double or triple or 10x, so basically if somebody just blindly pushes the buy button and then completely ignores absolutely everything that you wrote and looks at their portfolio in five years they’re going to be much much richer.
post 1704861741 08-11-2024, 04:22 AM
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#6591
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Originally Posted By GeneralSerpant
What do you understand about them so far? They are a pretty illustrative example of an AI growth stock in development.
Well, I only want to invest in things that I personally use in daily life, and understand every aspect of and strongly believe in the company, when I think of companies that will be here absolutely dominating everything in 10 years right away Amazon comes to mind, Tesla bitcoin possibly Solana, Probably Google and Apple, Nvidia, but I cannot make that claim about PLTR, I’m not a tech guy so on a technical level I don’t understand what they do, and I will never understand that, I would need to go and get a degree in data science and artificial intelligence , but I’m too old and not technologically inclined, and I also don’t use pltr for our company or personal anything , I want to be the customer of the stock I own.

Basically, if I’m going to be a part owner of a company, I better know what the **** it does, and I want to know intimately how strongly competition is, for example, it’s obvious that nobody’s touching Amazon or Tesla in Online retail or electric cars, I know that because I use these services And I will invest in the one that I personally prefer, but again, I don’t know this type of information for PLTR.

So pltr helped some hospital to dramatically reduce wait times and increase profits, and adjust the staff by analyzing all of their data, wonderful, I want to know how much the service costs and whether someone else can come up with a similar product and how easy it would be for someone to switch from PLTR to someone else.
post 1704866601 08-11-2024, 08:43 AM
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#6592
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Originally Posted By kusok
Deflation periods are not only very rare, but they’re also temporary such as during the great depression, you’re looking at a year or two, a great time to buy, ultimately it’s always about inflation and expansion of the money supply, this will not change, and this cannot change. Thus bears always lose.

Sometimes when I watch an instructional trading investing lecture of some kind from a few years ago, I see people freaking out about some stock being down 50%, they are writing the essays similar to yours about economic problems, what I repeatedly find is that you simply have to check on that stock or ETF Price today, it’s always up double or triple or 10x, so basically if somebody just blindly pushes the buy button and then completely ignores absolutely everything that you wrote and looks at their portfolio in five years they’re going to be much much richer.
You trust the bullish trend in the markets right?

The overall trend may be bullish in the stock market but the overall trend in the economy is deflation.

Recoveries from economic crises generally take more than 2 years and the feds stimulus is not a strong as it was due to America's debt and rising competition.

Market top in 2000 wasn't broken until 2007, market top in 2007 wasn't broken until 2013 and then you had a market top in 1972 that wasn't meaningfully broken until 1982.

Buying the market is only a guaranteed win if you have a 10+ year time horizon and you won't be forced to sell before the full 10 years.

I would say that you are feeling too confident.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1704866901 08-11-2024, 08:54 AM
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#6593
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
I've always wondered how exactly the central bank digital currency (cbdc) will be implemented but nobody in this thread ever comments on it. It's as if it's a stupid conspiracy theory or something.

As for the dollar collapsing.. what I understand is that while BRICS is starting to ramp up, it will take some time before things get problematic. It took supposedly 20 years for the dollar to decline from being 73% of the world's reserve currency down to it's current 59%. With more and more countries moving away from the dollar due to what we did to Russia (limiting their access to their reserve currency held in the USD), eventually the dollar should theoretically lose dominance, and when that happens there is more and more of the dollar coming back into circulation which will increase inflation. Combine that with the return of QE and new wars where we give away even more money to Israel and Ukraine etc, I too think the dollar will eventually collapse.

However, I don't think America will be destroyed due to hyperinflation, because that doesn't serve the globalists interests. There will be some kind of solution, something like CBDC which will be tied to the dollar value or something, and life will go on.

Especially when you take stocks for example, we all have ownership in these companies which is based on the USD. If one day the dollar collapses, the intrinsic value of these companies will remain and our ownership in said companies should still stay proportional based on our shares, right?
I think a lot people don't comment on it because its complicated and they have little financial understanding in the first place.

Simply having more dollars in circulation won't increase inflation, money is printed through loans and needs to have velocity to increase inflation, people won't get loans if they don't have a place to grow that money or if the cost of the loan is too high for them to grow money.

There is about 14,000,000,000,000 in outstanding foreign debt that is priced in U.S. dollars so even if these people try to get off the dollar it will cause the dollar to rise really quickly first. This means super-cheap imports, you can buy things from or while in other countries for deep discounts but it also means that the world won't be buying our exports. Donald Trump wants to lower the value of the dollar because he wants America to have strong exports but this could lead to higher inflation due to a lack of cheap goods from overseas and higher production costs.

It's going to very hard to predict exactly how all this plays out as there is too long a time frame with too many variables but it's good to constantly lay out probabilities in preparation for anything so you are never surprised.

I would say assets will be safer than currencies but I can see scenarios where folks get 100% in conversion of their asset values and scenarios where some people get 0%.

Generally in a time of transition from one global currency to another, gold wins until the dust settles and you return to fiat stability.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1704868341 08-11-2024, 09:33 AM
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#6594
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Who can hold for 30 years?








Japan has had low growth since 1990.

Japan took ~30 years from market top to market top.

Many people, including myself, speculate that China will go the way of America and America will go the way of Japan.






Opinion: How the U.S. economy could slide into a Japan-like ‘lost decade’
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...ecade-30e9227b

The US Economy Has Already Been ‘turning Japanese’
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-us-ec...ning-japanese/

Will The U.S. End Up Like Japan?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenc...up-like-japan/
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1704868881 08-11-2024, 09:48 AM
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#6595
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Originally Posted By kusok
So pltr helped some hospital to dramatically reduce wait times and increase profits, and adjust the staff by analyzing all of their data, wonderful, I want to know how much the service costs and whether someone else can come up with a similar product and how easy it would be for someone to switch from PLTR to someone else.
It's a service known to be higher priced and better than any comparable competition. At their earnings report they called it unparalleled.
post 1704875601 08-11-2024, 01:09 PM
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#6596
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Originally Posted By Abzu
You trust the bullish trend in the markets right?

The overall trend may be bullish in the stock market but the overall trend in the economy is deflation.

Recoveries from economic crises generally take more than 2 years and the feds stimulus is not a strong as it was due to America's debt and rising competition.

Market top in 2000 wasn't broken until 2007, market top in 2007 wasn't broken until 2013 and then you had a market top in 1972 that wasn't meaningfully broken until 1982.

Buying the market is only a guaranteed win if you have a 10+ year time horizon and you won't be forced to sell before the full 10 years.

I would say that you are feeling too confident.
I think those are completely valid points above, and for that reason it’s very important to buy the dips, DCA is fine for passive investors, but it’s even better if you hold off buying the tops and buy a little bit more on the dips, there is no need to wait Years for a market crash to recover, you should be actively buying the dips, this way you come out green much sooner,

unless you are the one percent of traders who actually make money, since 98 and even 99% of traders lose money, It’s better that you indeed have a 10 year time Horizon, and invest only the money that you will not need for the next several years.
post 1704875731 08-11-2024, 01:12 PM
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  1. kusok
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Originally Posted By Abzu
Who can hold for 30 years?








Japan has had low growth since 1990.

Japan took ~30 years from market top to market top.

Many people, including myself, speculate that China will go the way of America and America will go the way of Japan.






Opinion: How the U.S. economy could slide into a Japan-like ‘lost decade’
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...ecade-30e9227b

The US Economy Has Already Been ‘turning Japanese’
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-us-ec...ning-japanese/

Will The U.S. End Up Like Japan?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenc...up-like-japan/
I understand all that, but there is a nice graph that someone made on the Internet, I’m sure you’ve seen it, it has several decades of S&P 500 graph just going up and to the right across the entire page, and there are a couple of dozen arrows pointing at every point on the graph with an actual dated news headline attached to it: biggest crash coming, deflation coming, Massive stagnation, doomsday, apocalypse in stocks coming, 50% drop coming from here, we’re all going to die, sell everything.

So…
post 1704877791 08-11-2024, 02:01 PM
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#6598
  1. GeneralSerpant
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Originally Posted By kusok
I understand all that, but there is a nice graph that someone made on the Internet, I’m sure you’ve seen it, it has several decades of S&P 500 graph just going up and to the right across the entire page, and there are a couple of dozen arrows pointing at every point on the graph with an actual dated news headline attached to it: biggest crash coming, deflation coming, Massive stagnation, doomsday, apocalypse in stocks coming, 50% drop coming from here, we’re all going to die, sell everything.

So…
Recession study is predominantly hindsight analysis.
post 1704893431 08-11-2024, 08:13 PM
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  1. RobParks2M
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Anyone else notice how quickly everyone and everything went from pricing a nearly 100% trump 2024 victory to suddenly Dems winning? Even sports books/betting websites are strongly slanted on Trump losing which you would think is bizarre given the energy that was out there around the time Trump got shot and Biden hadn't dropped out... Also notice most media covered Trump assassination attempt for about 48 hours then buried the story?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1704893701 08-11-2024, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Anyone else notice how quickly everyone and everything went from pricing a nearly 100% trump 2024 victory to suddenly Dems winning? Even sports books/betting websites are strongly slanted on Trump losing which you would think is bizarre given the energy that was out there around the time Trump got shot and Biden hadn't dropped out... Also notice most media covered Trump assassination attempt for about 48 hours then buried the story?
big tech collusion, srs. they are trying to change public perception.

I don't think it matters who the president is if we're talking democrats, they just need a face to put out there at this point. whatever agenda they have, it will go through if they win regardless if it's kamala or someone actually intelligent.

but man.. KAMALA of all people lmfao, biden atleast has political experience but this woman is a literal retard who can't put a single coherent thought together

if our clown society wants to elect a clown, then clownworld is what they'll get.

Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
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