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Thread: US: interest rate cut in September is “essentially a done deal”

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08-02-2024, 06:48 PM
#1

US: interest rate cut in September is “essentially a done deal”

Senator Elizabeth Warren, a leading progressive, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “made a serious mistake not cutting interest rates” in the central bank’s most recent meeting.

“The jobs data is flashing red,” she added in a social media post.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...648adac4d7c51b
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08-02-2024, 06:52 PM
#2
With a recession looming will OliverHomeless finally be able to get a home?

Analysts are saying "No. Never."
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08-02-2024, 06:53 PM
#3
Yes, this has been known for about a month now. SAHM rule officially triggered today. Will likely only be a .25 cut in September as well, so in all reality, rates will still be high for a while into the future.

But mortgage rates dropped big this week, so housing costs will start dropping big with unemployment rising.
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08-02-2024, 06:55 PM
#4
Originally Posted By Zelensky⏩
With a recession looming will OliverHomeless finally be able to get a home?

Analysts are saying "No. Never."
If rates go down into the 5% area I'll consider it. But still it's not worth it in my city, would rather just stack paper and completely stop working and travel full time in like another 5-7 years.
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08-02-2024, 06:56 PM
#5
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Yes, this has been known for about a month now. SAHM rule officially triggered today. Will likely only be a .25 cut in September as well, so in all reality, rates will still be high for a while into the future.

But mortgage rates dropped big this week, so housing costs will start dropping big with unemployment rising.
It's weird that most of the misc thinks house prices will rise with lowering of rates but I'm hearing more and more that they will drop. Interested to see what happens either way
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08-02-2024, 06:57 PM
#6
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08-02-2024, 06:57 PM
#7
Originally Posted By BasedBagel⏩
Oliver will stay a rentcel for life. It’s pretty sad
He has nothing to fear from the increase in the unemployment rate

The truckstop blowjob market is always fairly resilient

But it was never going to be enough to buy a house anyway so no real change
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08-02-2024, 06:59 PM
#8
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
It's weird that most of the misc thinks house prices will rise with lowering of rates but I'm hearing more and more that they will drop. Interested to see what happens either way
House prices are already dropping like crazy, and it's because people are losing jobs and need to sell. And there isn't as much demand so they can't hold out for higher prices.

If rates drop quickly, there probably won't be too much of a bloodbath in housing. But if rates stay in the 6% area for a while things will likely get pretty bad.
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08-02-2024, 07:01 PM
#9
Originally Posted By OliverHomeless⏩
House prices are already dropping like crazy, and it's because people are losing jobs and need to sell. And there isn't as much demand so they can't hold out for higher prices.

If rates drop quickly, there probably won't be too much of a bloodbath in housing. But if rates stay in the 6% area for a while things will likely get pretty bad.
Is you actually retarded

“ Home prices in the United States have hit another all-time high, according to data shared by real estate company Redfin.

The median U.S. home sale price soared to $397,954 in June, which was a nearly 5% increase from the year prior, Redfin data shows.”

https://www.livenowfox.com/news/us-h...high-june-2024
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08-02-2024, 07:03 PM
#10
Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Is you actually retarded

“ Home prices in the United States have hit another all-time high, according to data shared by real estate company Redfin.

The median U.S. home sale price soared to $397,954 in June, which was a nearly 5% increase from the year prior, Redfin data shows.”

https://www.livenowfox.com/news/us-h...high-june-2024
I'm very active in the Residential Real Estate market right now, and homes are selling for like 75-80% of their 2022 prices right now. Pretty much every listing has a price cut. The peak is long past.
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08-02-2024, 07:05 PM
#11
Originally Posted By OliverHomeless⏩
I'm very active in the Residential Real Estate market right now, and homes are selling for like 75-80% of their 2022 prices right now. Pretty much every listing has a price cut. The peak is long past.
Lmao

Going through people’s garbage bins to find bottles to recycle for nickels and dimes does not make you active in the residential real estate market

You’ve made it clear you have no exposure to residential real estate and have been actively discouraging people from buying

If you did this for work (you don’t) you would be sued for negligence
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08-02-2024, 07:18 PM
#12
Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Lmao

Going through people’s garbage bins to find bottles to recycle for nickels and dimes does not make you active in the residential real estate market

You’ve made it clear you have no exposure to residential real estate and have been actively discouraging people from buying

If you did this for work (you don’t) you would be sued for negligence
I am a Real Estate Broker. This market is great because nobody has money anymore and my clients do.
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08-02-2024, 07:25 PM
#13
Originally Posted By OliverHomeless⏩
I am a Real Estate Broker. This market is great because nobody has money anymore and my clients do.
Lmao

No you’re not

If you were, you would have some clue about how markets and the economy works

What you are, is not a “broker” but just plain broke

broke incel

Which is actually a good thing in the broad sense, because if you ever had kids they’d be condemned to be broke rentcucks as well
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08-02-2024, 07:43 PM
#14
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
It's weird that most of the misc thinks house prices will rise with lowering of rates but I'm hearing more and more that they will drop. Interested to see what happens either way
It’ll depend on the where you’re looking I think. The high prices are due to tight inventory IMO. Especially in deseriable areas. If rates drop, inventory will likely rise, at least for desirable areas where people are locked in low rates and demand has remained high. Also, if people lost jobs, that’ll bring more houses on the market. Both of these scenarios will likely decrease the prices.

Misc is assuming that supply will remain tight even with low rates, but demand will increase, hence high prices.
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08-02-2024, 07:58 PM
#15
Ok but how does this help ukraine and isreal?
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08-02-2024, 08:01 PM
#16
How far do home prices have to drop if we go back to the beginning when Oliver refused to partake and wanted to wait?

Surely a drop now won't come close to his initially point of refusal. The average home price is up 25% from Q4 2020.
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08-02-2024, 08:08 PM
#17
Originally Posted By sam212⏩
It’ll depend on the where you’re looking I think. The high prices are due to tight inventory IMO. Especially in deseriable areas. If rates drop, inventory will likely rise, at least for desirable areas where people are locked in low rates and demand has remained high. Also, if people lost jobs, that’ll bring more houses on the market. Both of these scenarios will likely decrease the prices.

Misc is assuming that supply will remain tight even with low rates, but demand will increase, hence high prices.
posted this elsewhere..

people who have 3% mortgages probably won't sell unless they're desperate for a nicer home
people with 6-8% mortgages would probably just refinance especially if home values drop
people waiting to buy would be looking at the similar inventory there is now which just drives up demand even more and increases prices..

only way any of this changes is if there is significant job losses
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08-02-2024, 09:04 PM
#18
Originally Posted By TryingMen⏩
How far do home prices have to drop if we go back to the beginning when Oliver refused to partake and wanted to wait?

Surely a drop now won't come close to his initially point of refusal. The average home price is up 25% from Q4 2020.
The funniest is him trying to larp as a real estate broker

I wouldn’t trust him to negotiate the price of a chipotle order
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08-02-2024, 09:21 PM
#19
There are still a bunch of data points between now and September, but for sure if it continues like this

Canada has already cut rates twice x 0.25, I think the ECB has done the same
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08-02-2024, 10:35 PM
#20
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
There are still a bunch of data points between now and September, but for sure if it continues like this

Canada has already cut rates twice x 0.25, I think the ECB has done the same
What do you think will happen to house prices from here
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08-02-2024, 10:43 PM
#21
Inflation is still out of control. Lots of indicators are showing it inflation will rise from current 3% to around 5% by the end of the year, and that's if interest rates stay the same.
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08-02-2024, 11:04 PM
#22
Originally Posted By Onlinedatingcel⏩
Inflation is still out of control. Lots of indicators are showing it inflation will rise from current 3% to around 5% by the end of the year, and that's if interest rates stay the same.
Canada's inflation re-accelerated after they cut rates. It's going to make for a fun ride.
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08-02-2024, 11:12 PM
#23
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
Canada's inflation re-accelerated after they cut rates. It's going to make for a fun ride.
Ok but surely rents can’t go any higher right?
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08-02-2024, 11:29 PM
#24
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
posted this elsewhere..

people who have 3% mortgages probably won't sell unless they're desperate for a nicer home
people with 6-8% mortgages would probably just refinance especially if home values drop
people waiting to buy would be looking at the similar inventory there is now which just drives up demand even more and increases prices..

only way any of this changes is if there is significant job losses
can confirm
2.25% interest rate
won’t sell
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08-03-2024, 03:10 AM
#25
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
posted this elsewhere..

people who have 3% mortgages probably won't sell unless they're desperate for a nicer home
people with 6-8% mortgages would probably just refinance especially if home values drop
people waiting to buy would be looking at the similar inventory there is now which just drives up demand even more and increases prices..

only way any of this changes is if there is significant job losses
They wouldn’t sell regardless

At sub-3% it’s a cash flowing asset

They’d rent it out and put the profit towards the next place
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08-03-2024, 04:04 AM
#26
Originally Posted By Onlinedatingcel⏩
Inflation is still out of control. Lots of indicators are showing it inflation will rise from current 3% to around 5% by the end of the year, and that's if interest rates stay the same.
This.

They dont need to increase rates - they need to reduce the money supply.

Election year tho.
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08-03-2024, 04:40 AM
#27
0.5
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08-03-2024, 05:13 AM
#28
Originally Posted By Silence2⏩
0.5
Nah, I don’t think they’ll do .5 in September. The bond markets already did most of the work for them this week.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we get another uptick in inflation because the 10 year dropped so much this week. The 10 year treasury is literally down .5 during the last week…..
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08-03-2024, 05:19 AM
#29
I can't speak for the market as a whole, but I know in my neighborhood and probably in Hattiesburg, MS, the market is saturated. There are 11 homes for sale just in my neighborhood. Two of my literal neighbors have purchased other homes, even though they still have theirs for sale. I have had mine for sale since January. I was just gonna take my equity, and what I've paid down and on it, to buy another smaller house and have no house note.

Fortunately for me, I ain't got to sell. I have an interest rate of 2.75 and a super low house note. The problems will start when house prices lure in miscreants into the neighborhood. Then my property value will plummet.
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08-03-2024, 05:20 AM
#30
You idiots can't have it both ways. You complain if the inflation is too high. Then you complain if the fed keeps the rate high. Make up your fuking minds. BTW, the labor market looks like it is going to sht soon, but at least for now, it's ok. They don't actually need to cut the rate yet.

This is why we have Princeton econ PhDs controlling the fed, and not a bunch of retarded nazi miscers.
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