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Forum Β» More General Categories Β» Education/Career/Finance Β» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XIV -- Reopening Edition
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06-10-2021, 08:48 AM
#3661
amc getting slaughtered prolly gunna be even worse tmrw
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06-10-2021, 08:49 AM
#3662
Originally Posted By Heaney
Their life cycles are a fraction of a lithium ion life cycle. Realistically they'd have to be part of a battery swap program like NIO has.
I would be okay with that as long as it's a few years like you get out of your normal car battery. The Aluminum ones per the article are very recyclable too.
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06-10-2021, 08:49 AM
#3663
Originally Posted By ListenHereBruh
amc getting slaughtered prolly gunna be even worse tmrw
Time to buy high and sell low on more meme stocks?
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06-10-2021, 08:49 AM
#3664
Originally Posted By NoScrubz
Goodnight sweet memestonks
hedge meme stonks… with meme stonks…

ultimate level of retardness lol

but is working…
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06-10-2021, 08:51 AM
#3665
Originally Posted By camaleom
hedge meme stonks… with meme stonks…

ultimate level of retardness lol

but is working…
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06-10-2021, 09:06 AM
#3666
Originally Posted By twovalvekid
Time to buy high and sell low on more meme stocks?
lmao **** you brah
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06-10-2021, 09:08 AM
#3667
Originally Posted By ListenHereBruh
lmao **** you brah
-Complains about wanting to stay out of the market
-Gets advice to stay out of meme stocks
-Buys meme stocks
-Meme stocks get wrekt
-Profit?
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06-10-2021, 09:12 AM
#3668
Originally Posted By Destor
Oilprice.com is one of my staples yup, I hit that website and I also have a bookmarked google search for "oil -site : oilprice.com" to exclude everything from there. I also frequent the Tesla forums, Elektrek, and InsideEV among some other alternative energy media sites

It's worth mentioning that Oilprice.com isn't strictly pro-oil and they post plenty of bearish stuff as well, from EV adoption to other forms of energy to doomsday articles about the end of oil.


Do you not think these Russian/Nigerian officials are acutely aware of OPEC's idled production? Bringing back idled production won't compensate for lacking investment across the entire sector over the next 2-5 years if the demand reality doesn't match what has been pushed on the environmental side. Oil reserves are finite and drilled oil especially faces quick production declines that require new investment to offset. The Nigerian oil lead is saying their production is already in decline mode. Give it a few more years of minimal investment + drilled wells naturally declining in production over time and we will be in a difficult af position.

This is the nature of commodities and especially oil. Prices are high -> investment ramps up to capitalize on the high prices -> production increases outpace demand and prices drop -> investment drops because prices drop -> demand increases outpace production -> prices rise again

Except oil companies right now aren't investing in new production because of all the crap out there


From political move you really think rest of world would like Russia/Iran profit off high oil prices?

Oil has a very political angle.

If world consumption stabilizes at 110 million per day and you have all these EV/hybrid cars/trucks etc coming into market where is demand coming from? Trying to profit before green moves take place.

What do those guys know that Nigeria and Russian minister don't?

I can't find single source that is predicting oil above $100 after 2022.

Go through these slides.

We are now at inflation run commodities are running but this can't be sustainable.

https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/...ions/crude.pdf

https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Do...rgycharts.pdf/


We just had the highest CPI increase since 2008.
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06-10-2021, 09:18 AM
#3669
Originally Posted By twovalvekid
-Complains about wanting to stay out of the market
-Gets advice to stay out of meme stocks
-Buys meme stocks
-Meme stocks get wrekt
-Profit?
fck it
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06-10-2021, 09:23 AM
#3670
Originally Posted By topperstyle
Ty Biden
My angus will never be the same after today.

It will take a miracle
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06-10-2021, 09:25 AM
#3671
My Meme puts are printing, I actually bought some blackberry just now though as a gamble. We will see what happens. Lol. Ok with losing it all.



Originally Posted By Heaney
Their life cycles are a fraction of a lithium ion life cycle. Realistically they'd have to be part of a battery swap program like NIO has.
Gotcha. I’ll have to look more into it.


Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust
My angus will never be the same after today.

It will take a miracle
Damn, yeah if you’re in what you said yesterday you’re getting rekt.

A lot of chit is down. May be about to bounce a bit.
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06-10-2021, 09:26 AM
#3672
Dropped another $1K in GME pre-market… Oops, lmao. I had such a nice average too, averaged up $40 over the past two days…

@Carbonfibre, correct me if I'm wrong here; but didn't we see similar movement the last time GME dropped more shares out until they were all sold, and then it bounced back a day or two later?
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06-10-2021, 09:33 AM
#3673
Originally Posted By Heaney
Their life cycles are a fraction of a lithium ion life cycle. Realistically they'd have to be part of a battery swap program like NIO has.
Yeah wouldn't buy into this without being really knowledgeable in batteries, who knows what other surprises are hidden in the technical details that only subject matter experts will appreciate

Commercialization would be the other side of the equation

Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
From political move you really think rest of world would like Russia/Iran profit off high oil prices?

Oil has a very political angle.

If world consumption stabilizes at 110 million per day and you have all these EV/hybrid cars/trucks etc coming into market where is demand coming from? Trying to profit before green moves take place.

What do those guys know that Nigeria and Russian minister don't?

I can't find single source that is predicting oil above $100 after 2022.

Go through these slides.

We are now at inflation run commodities are running but this can't be sustainable.

https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/...ions/crude.pdf

https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Do...rgycharts.pdf/


We just had the highest CPI increase since 2008.
Demand doesn't need to increase further brah, supply will decline as no new production is brought online and current wells etc aren't replaced.

This is why I think Canadian oil has a distinct advantage, because our oil industry revolves around massive mines that are built on 20-30 years of reserves. No new investment is required aside from switching out pipe etc, which we call Sustaining Capital out here. Other than that, CNRL / Suncor / Cenovus have already spent billions and many years developing these mines that can just produce barrels now.
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06-10-2021, 09:46 AM
#3674
Rip gme
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06-10-2021, 09:56 AM
#3675
Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust
Rip gme
Just wait. Could be them selling some of the 5m shares. It will still move a bit with amc on this bounce.
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06-10-2021, 09:56 AM
#3676
Originally Posted By buckeyenutz
Dropped another $1K in GME pre-market… Oops, lmao. I had such a nice average too, averaged up $40 over the past two days…

@Carbonfibre, correct me if I'm wrong here; but didn't we see similar movement the last time GME dropped more shares out until they were all sold, and then it bounced back a day or two later?
Reasons GME could be selling off here.

1. They said they will offer 5 million shares on open market (that is diluting stock)

2. Ryan Cohan still has no strategy investors have been waiting for 6 months something anything. His best effort "Buckle up"

3. They want to be Amazon Lite I guess? (hired two amazon guys)

4. No guidance going forward rest of year

5. NFT platform is it coming?

6. SEC investigation related to insider selling before January rip (this is probably none event)


One more thing there was article while back that said to justify $250 per share GME would need to have the highest operating margin in all of retail (something like 5 percent operating profit)

That would require GME selling NFTs / Cannabis / Games / PC Hardware etc and be the market leader.

Remember one thing retail investors get tired if you bought GME at $300-400 and you invested almost all of your portfolio or more than 50% at some point you will get uncomfortable eventually.

If you're buying GME just for the pure squeeze and hedge funds are going to get margin called well atm nobody has defaulted.

The charts from few pages I bought showed you how algos are playing retail like flute. Coordinated option/stock rise and fall at will. Nobody can do nothing about it.



Where is that share count that was gonna happen yesterday? That superstonk was claiming it would give us true short interest.


GME is like cult.

Everyone on superstonk thinks this is fake. ( I have not sold my shares still but my investment is so low and stop loss at $150 that it doesn't bother me one bit)


SI has dried up.




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06-10-2021, 10:02 AM
#3677
Originally Posted By lntense
My Meme puts are printing, I actually bought some blackberry just now though as a gamble. We will see what happens. Lol. Ok with losing it all.

A lot of chit is down. May be about to bounce a bit.
clov bb and pltr lol cause we all know pltr rubber band between 21-25 lol
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06-10-2021, 10:15 AM
#3678
Originally Posted By Destor

Except oil companies right now aren't investing in new production because of all the crap out there
IDK about all the energy companies I invest in, but Shell is investing in alternative and renewable energy. I attempted to locate the article on WSJ, but it might of been posted somewhere else.
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06-10-2021, 10:17 AM
#3679
Originally Posted By lntense
Just wait. Could be them selling some of the 5m shares. It will still move a bit with amc on this bounce.
I am.not selling AMC and GME
Other meme stocks, waiting for an easy exit strategy. No more meme stocks for me
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06-10-2021, 10:22 AM
#3680
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
Reasons GME could be selling off here.

1. They said they will offer 5 million shares on open market (that is diluting stock)

2. Ryan Cohan still has no strategy investors have been waiting for 6 months something anything. His best effort "Buckle up"

3. They want to be Amazon Lite I guess? (hired two amazon guys)

4. No guidance going forward rest of year

5. NFT platform is it coming?

6. SEC investigation related to insider selling before January rip (this is probably none event)


One more thing there was article while back that said to justify $250 per share GME would need to have the highest operating margin in all of retail (something like 5 percent operating profit)

That would require GME selling NFTs / Cannabis / Games / PC Hardware etc and be the market leader.

Remember one thing retail investors get tired if you bought GME at $300-400 and you invested almost all of your portfolio or more than 50% at some point you will get uncomfortable eventually.

If you're buying GME just for the pure squeeze and hedge funds are going to get margin called well atm nobody has defaulted.

The charts from few pages I bought showed you how algos are playing retail like flute. Coordinated option/stock rise and fall at will. Nobody can do nothing about it.



Where is that share count that was gonna happen yesterday? That superstonk was claiming it would give us true short interest.


GME is like cult.

Everyone on superstonk thinks this is fake. ( I have not sold my shares still but my investment is so low and stop loss at $150 that it doesn't bother me one bit)




Thank you for the non echo-chamber response. My position isn't huge either; but it's tough to get through all of the noise, especially when a stock rips for almost two straight weeks. I'm still up, although only a third of what I was up two days ago–tempted to set a stop loss as well. I've scraped profits, but either reinvested them in other meme stock nonsense and lost it or right back into GME (which I did yesterday at $308 and this morning at $280–raised my average by $40 in less than 24 hours). Every time I get skeptical, it rips again. I thought for certain it would be testing $360 today. And to your other points, GME appears to be exactly what we thought–a meme. No plan for the future, diluting the stock to raise another $1B–for what? And while Ryan appears to be pandering to retail investors, he, just like all of the other capitalist cult leaders, seem to be out for their own interests–even if some of it aligns with retail investors.
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06-10-2021, 10:36 AM
#3681
Originally Posted By _zman
IDK about all the energy companies I invest in, but Shell is investing in alternative and renewable energy. I attempted to locate the article on WSJ, but it might of been posted somewhere else.
Yeah I think a lot of fossil fuel companies are doing that to varying degrees, but we still need oil production and we still need new investment to replace declining wells and such. But it's not happening and bringing new production online doesn't happen overnight

The disconnect between the "green" euphoria / pressure on producers and the demand reality is what could drive prices sky high. It's not something to base investments on, but a company that is already generating free cash flow at $60 WTI will survive regardless and there could be huge upside if this ^^ scenario does play out the way some are predicting
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06-10-2021, 10:46 AM
#3682
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
From political move you really think rest of world would like Russia/Iran profit off high oil prices?

Oil has a very political angle.

If world consumption stabilizes at 110 million per day and you have all these EV/hybrid cars/trucks etc coming into market where is demand coming from? Trying to profit before green moves take place.

What do those guys know that Nigeria and Russian minister don't?

I can't find single source that is predicting oil above $100 after 2022.

Go through these slides.

We are now at inflation run commodities are running but this can't be sustainable.

https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/...ions/crude.pdf

https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Do...rgycharts.pdf/


We just had the highest CPI increase since 2008.
Politics is definitely an interesting angle and wildcard with oil.

1995-2005 topics like oil, wars, the middle east and US dependence on it were a nonstop topic.

Then fracking ramps up, US does a 180 from importer to exporter in a short period of time and then at least in my experience the political significance of the oil topic takes a back seat.

But like you said if oil prices skyrocket at some point and a more hawkish govt is in place at the time it’ll be interesting to see what the rehtoric is and if actions change.
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06-10-2021, 10:51 AM
#3683
GME has a strong support trend line at $225 which is hit
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06-10-2021, 10:58 AM
#3684
Originally Posted By camaleom
clov bb and pltr lol cause we all know pltr rubber band between 21-25 lol
I’m long on palantir really low dca on it. Plan to hold it for over a year unless something crazy happens with it and it shoots up or something.


Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust
I am.not selling AMC and GME
Other meme stocks, waiting for an easy exit strategy. No more meme stocks for me
Same as for holding amc/gme. I do have more conviction in amc though.

Made a little bet on BB but that’s it. Puts on other memes.
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06-10-2021, 11:02 AM
#3685
What do you guys think about taking a GME position now with the drop?
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06-10-2021, 11:07 AM
#3686
Originally Posted By JoshSP1985
What do you guys think about taking a GME position now with the drop?
Not sure how many lives that cat has left.
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06-10-2021, 11:08 AM
#3687
Originally Posted By Destor
Yeah I think a lot of fossil fuel companies are doing that to varying degrees, but we still need oil production and we still need new investment to replace declining wells and such. But it's not happening and bringing new production online doesn't happen overnight

The disconnect between the "green" euphoria / pressure on producers and the demand reality is what could drive prices sky high. It's not something to base investments on, but a company that is already generating free cash flow at $60 WTI will survive regardless and there could be huge upside if this ^^ scenario does play out the way some are predicting
There's a few angles I can see playing out here 2-5 years out in regards to oil price.

The company I work for is the Canadian subsidiary of ExxonMobil. We have not invested in any greenfield projects since the first 2014 crash. Along with Exxon, the top 5 biggest Canadian producers have said no more to mega-projects. Brownfield expansions and de-bottlenecking for now. Even at $60 WTI the Canadian producers are cash flow machines, once balance sheets are repaired this money has to go somewhere, however it isn't going to be North America in this current political environment. The Canadian federal gubment and now Biden administration has made it exceptionally clear they are closed for energy business. Exxon is now betting on the Guyana mega field and Russia, granted sanctions are holding that back. There is absolutely a want to build more projects in Canada, but I believe the flight of investment capital is politically motivated. These businesses aren't going to invest 5bil+ in leftist jursidiction. We can't even get pipelines built for christ sakes. It's really a shame that these golden gooses are purposefully getting cooked, rather than laying the golden eggs.

Case 1: If the pre-COVID economy comes roaring back in the next few months I can see OPEC+ bringing back the rest of their idled production, along with the Iran factor. This would probably level us out somewhere around the $70 mark before the virus hit. However as Destor stated, there has been next to no capital investment for new fields in the past 6 or so years. These projects take almost 10 years to come online, so there would be no supply side levers to pull. US shale oil could come back but those companies got slaughtered, and Biden ain't a helping hand. Companies worldwide wont be able to bring new production online fast enough to keep demand at bay.

Likely what I see happening is green tech becoming an apparent failure in 5-10 years and the energy sector meeting in the middle somewhere. Oil/Gas will bring on emissions technology to make the hippies happy and "green" tech will fill in the gaps. Meet in the middle so to speak.

Case 2: It's completely political now with environmental + first nations groups controlling energy projects, at least in Canada. We cannot get anything built. There is now technology out there that can significantly reduce emissions (Carbon Storage, Sequestering, SA-SAGD) and companies are getting on board with investing in it. However, the rhetoric out there completely ignores this. Even if we could reduce emissions by 90% it will never be enough. Governments and political groups want the fossil fuel industry completely gone. Natural Gas was the clean alternative a short while ago and now that's in their sights as well. Energy companies have been exceptionally terrible with bringing the truth to light and fighting for themselves and Governments along with environmental groups have been exceptionally good at spreading misinformation and pandering to the public. If oil reaches $100bbl+ gubments will further use this to push the climate agenda. Use high energy prices to pander to the public on how green tech will save them.

Example: Venezuela is a good example on how no capital investment correlates to rising prices. Granted this happened because of their political issues. Decades ago they were the Oil & Gas darling. Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips built their energy infrastructure only to have it all expropriated. They swiftly ran these complex's into the ground and squeezed every penny out of them without investing for the future. They now have only 25% of their original output and have to import everything. Last I heard they're trying to convert their last running cokers into "Flexicokers" to make fuel. This will be a stunning failure, they have to run at such high temperatures those things will be coked solid as Venezuela no longer has the expertise to operate these plants. With-out capital investment into replacement fields + plants you only have so long until it all comes crashing down.
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06-10-2021, 11:11 AM
#3688
u guys seeing ORPH AND GLTO
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06-10-2021, 11:13 AM
#3689
Originally Posted By Destor
Yeah wouldn't buy into this without being really knowledgeable in batteries, who knows what other surprises are hidden in the technical details that only subject matter experts will appreciate

Commercialization would be the other side of the equation



Demand doesn't need to increase further brah, supply will decline as no new production is brought online and current wells etc aren't replaced.

This is why I think Canadian oil has a distinct advantage, because our oil industry revolves around massive mines that are built on 20-30 years of reserves. No new investment is required aside from switching out pipe etc, which we call Sustaining Capital out here. Other than that, CNRL / Suncor / Cenovus have already spent billions and many years developing these mines that can just produce barrels now.
You think supply will decline that much? What if Iran oil is good again?

I just look at these slides and see that oil is super complicated to predict.

From investing point of you, to me this feels like chasing oil stocks atm. Time to buy oil stocks was last year.







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06-10-2021, 11:14 AM
#3690
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
We are now at inflation run commodities are running but this can't be sustainable.

https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/...ions/crude.pdf

https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Do...rgycharts.pdf/


We just had the highest CPI increase since 2008.
Interesting thing about the CPI is it's a very specific snippet of the whole picture. Asset-based inflation is not calculated into that metric. Peel back the curtains and we already have significant inflation going on. Another way for the gubment to say there's no problem, all is well.
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