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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1668515713 09-26-2022, 07:39 PM
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#391
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
You don't sound like you're arguing at all. It's awesome you're putting in and you should do everything you can to maximize your employee match program. If you're not doing that, you're essentially throwing away free money. If it means cutting costs in the home, do it. Whatever it takes because the more that time passes, the less time your money has to work for you.

Also, I have open BTC orders for 12.5k. Right there with ya.
I'm probably going to buy omi coin. It's a company that sells collectibles as nft's. They sell disney stuff and marvel comics in digital forum. Rumor is Pokémon is coming also. Check them out. It's the best 1 in a million crypto project I have found. I've been been following them for 2 years.the company makes a boatload of money and has disney and marvel among others as some of its i.p.'s. They were burning coins with every transaction but that had to get put on hold because it would make them a exchange. The teams goal is a for a deflationary token.
post 1668519623 09-26-2022, 09:20 PM
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this is investing thread

not crypto thread
post 1668520343 09-26-2022, 09:47 PM
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#393
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
this is investing thread

not crypto thread
I apologize, I though people invested in crypto.
post 1668530483 09-27-2022, 06:11 AM
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#394
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Originally Posted By ujelly⏩
I apologize, I though people invested in crypto.
Fair point, however there is an investing thread specifically for crypto where you find a greater wealth of knowledge for that subject.
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post 1668533443 09-27-2022, 07:35 AM
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I think we get Q3 earnings that blow away expectations, the market rallies hard possibly to or slightly above the previous ATH, Fed goes full Hawk mode and hikes harder, lagging impacts from the QT roll in and unemployment spikes + earnings crater, the Fed starts cutting rates, more lagging impacts come in, and we grind down to a new bottom


Either that or it goes completely differently, one or the other
post 1668533873 09-27-2022, 07:48 AM
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#396
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I think we get Q3 earnings that blow away expectations, the market rallies hard possibly to or slightly above the previous ATH, Fed goes full Hawk mode and hikes harder, lagging impacts from the QT roll in and unemployment spikes + earnings crater, the Fed starts cutting rates, more lagging impacts come in, and we grind down to a new bottom


Either that or it goes completely differently, one or the other
lmao. strong.
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post 1668533933 09-27-2022, 07:50 AM
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#397
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I think we get Q3 earnings that blow away expectations, the market rallies hard possibly to or slightly above the previous ATH, Fed goes full Hawk mode and hikes harder, lagging impacts from the QT roll in and unemployment spikes + earnings crater, the Fed starts cutting rates, more lagging impacts come in, and we grind down to a new bottom


Either that or it goes completely differently, one or the other
so what you're saying is, it could go up... but on the contrary, it might also go down?
post 1668534133 09-27-2022, 07:54 AM
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#398
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
so what you're saying is, it could go up... but on the contrary, it might also go down?
Might even do both. Back and forth. Forever.
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post 1668534313 09-27-2022, 07:57 AM
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#399
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Originally Posted By heiltrump2024⏩
so what you're saying is, it could go up... but on the contrary, it might also go down?
Yes exactly, it's highly unlikely the prices will remain unchanged
post 1668534483 09-27-2022, 08:01 AM
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#400
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I think we get Q3 earnings that blow away expectations, the market rallies hard possibly to or slightly above the previous ATH, Fed goes full Hawk mode and hikes harder, lagging impacts from the QT roll in and unemployment spikes + earnings crater, the Fed starts cutting rates, more lagging impacts come in, and we grind down to a new bottom


Either that or it goes completely differently, one or the other
I highly doubt earnings blow anyone away. They might be in line with previous guidance, but I think new guidance releases will look ugly.
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post 1668534773 09-27-2022, 08:05 AM
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#401
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I highly doubt earnings blow anyone away. They might be in line with previous guidance, but I think new guidance releases will look ugly.
Agree.

I would lean that guidance is not going to be great for most.

That 10 year yield is gonna go over 4% today.






Atm there is lot of accumulation here.


Same play that we had June 16th.






Just keep something in mind.

These quarter ends are the biggest volume trade area.

Like I said many times before Dec 30th / March 30th / June 30th / Sept 30th. Biggest moves will be setup for year end. We saw June was the moment oil stocks peaked.

This is where lockup period for quarter ends this Friday for Q3.

Hedge funds etc this is where they roll / adjust for Dec 30th.
post 1668535263 09-27-2022, 08:13 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I highly doubt earnings blow anyone away. They might be in line with previous guidance, but I think new guidance releases will look ugly.
I think there are a lot of games being played and still far too much money floating around or sitting on the sidelines, would have agreed up until like two days ago but this is my contrarian hail Mary guess that I would never invest based on but wouldn't be shocked to see.

This would also align with previous trends we've seen between periods of interest rate hikes + stock market moves


We haven't seen guides down from Apple, Microsoft, etc. Strong earnings numbers will just be further ammunition for the Fed in their rate hike quest, it'll show the economy is still far too hot and letting off the pedal will allow fresh money to flow in and provide further upward pricing pressure



It could go totally differently but man, I have a feeling
post 1668535623 09-27-2022, 08:20 AM
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#403
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Apple hasn't provided guidance all year.


Microsoft last quarter blamed the strong dollar for missing revenue and eps.

June DXY was at 100-102.

3 months later DXY is now at 114 about to push toward 120.


This is June earnings for MSFT.






all that being said.

it would require ugly ugly guidance from MSFT to get it to tank toward $200-220 after earnings end of October.

post 1668537953 09-27-2022, 09:03 AM
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#404
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I think we get Q3 earnings that blow away expectations, the market rallies hard possibly to or slightly above the previous ATH, Fed goes full Hawk mode and hikes harder, lagging impacts from the QT roll in and unemployment spikes + earnings crater, the Fed starts cutting rates, more lagging impacts come in, and we grind down to a new bottom


Either that or it goes completely differently, one or the other
Jokes aside, my guess is that the bolded is right in the sense that earnings will come in flat, and we get potato rally because ppl expected much worse.
mo e
post 1668538073 09-27-2022, 09:08 AM
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#405
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Yeah "blow away" might be a bit extreme, but I don't think they'll show real weakness in the economy compared to the doomsayers claiming the Fed is hiking too fast and cratering the economy etc

I think we head back up, the rate hikes continue, and the bottom is still a ways out


There is a metric chitton of cash sitting on the sidelines
post 1668538713 09-27-2022, 09:22 AM
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#406
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I don't believe there is that much cash on the sidelines waiting for better prices.

This is extremely well hedged market. Options is not some fugayzi anymore its being used for up/down/sideways at levels never seen before.

Considering that traditional 60/40 portfolio is down 20% this year.

Rather there is still too much retail cash in the market that has not had the 'capitulation' moment that most think will happen at some point.

Fed National Wealth Data just happened to be released today...




post 1668539823 09-27-2022, 09:46 AM
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#407
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Yeah "blow away" might be a bit extreme, but I don't think they'll show real weakness in the economy compared to the doomsayers claiming the Fed is hiking too fast and cratering the economy etc

I think we head back up, the rate hikes continue, and the bottom is still a ways out


There is a metric chitton of cash sitting on the sidelines
Everyone is going to throw money into bonds. Who is turning down a risk free 4-5% in these uncertain markets? Just gotta wait till hikes are over. Seems like Jan should be when fed says they are feeling better about it. If they were smart they’d stop hiking and start balance sheet runoff to stop dollar from crushing every other currency. But we all know why they can’t do that
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post 1668539963 09-27-2022, 09:49 AM
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#408
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I'm referring moreso to cash on the sidelines waiting to be plowed into the real economy, people are waiting for prices to come down and then will provide upward inflationary pressure. There's still a lot of wealth destruction that needs to happen, those balance increases from 2019 levels are just insane

There's not really any data that will sway my thinking though, this is merely wild speculation that I would never make moves on the back of
post 1668540623 09-27-2022, 10:03 AM
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#409
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Shouldn't be surprise tbh.

Covid created the biggest transfer of wealth to top 1% in history almost by design.

Income inequality is now at extremes.


This is door for populism.

Same reason why far right fascist party is now leader in Italy. We are going to go to extremes in both sides. More than ever.

The next 5-10 years could be like going no where in real terms.
post 1668541203 09-27-2022, 10:16 AM
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#410
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new year low just hit.

yeahhhh

not good.

its legit approaching crash level if 3600 is lost.

post 1668541273 09-27-2022, 10:18 AM
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Wow market was just up and now reversed all of it.

So now I’m really waiting..
I probably banged your mom.

Eat the whole animal like a real man.
post 1668541523 09-27-2022, 10:27 AM
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Rally cancelled brb deleting those posts
post 1668542373 09-27-2022, 10:42 AM
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#413
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Based on what I'm seeing, sh*ts about to get real.
post 1668542543 09-27-2022, 10:44 AM
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Gonna miss SeptemBEAR. Most money I’ve ever made in a month. 2 years salary already cleared. Bounce is probably early October but it’s probably looks like the May 24th rally where it dumped harder right after
post 1668543653 09-27-2022, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
Gonna miss SeptemBEAR. Most money I’ve ever made in a month. 2 years salary already cleared. Bounce is probably early October but it’s probably looks like the May 24th rally where it dumped harder right after
Damn bro I wish I could make this sort of money. I struck gold with my $ calls and Euro puts but it's not any sort of impressive gains lol
post 1668544993 09-27-2022, 11:30 AM
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#416
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Damn bro I wish I could make this sort of money. I struck gold with my $ calls and Euro puts but it's not any sort of impressive gains lol
inb4 he's unemployed and his salary x2 is less than you made on your calls.
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post 1668546353 09-27-2022, 11:52 AM
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#417
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Originally Posted By 401Delta⏩
Based on what I'm seeing, sh*ts about to get real.
Yup. Y’all should buy JPM puts. I was seconds away from selling a $100csp. You know it’s about to get crushed when I try to go full degen. Look at FDX $150csp I was considering last week LMAO
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post 1668546493 09-27-2022, 11:55 AM
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#418
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someone call up martin scorsese



remember this story?


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/thre...li-scheme.html


Originally Posted By 401Delta⏩
Based on what I'm seeing, sh*ts about to get real.
No.

Its needs to go below 3600 and more likely 3500...

Market blows up when premium sellers start taking on water and fast.

Than you will see what crash will look like.

VIX will hit 40+ once put sellers start getting margin called.


Remember name of game for last 2 years was buy every dip and sell premium.

Why would anyone buy premium? They have expiry.

Instead its been sell premium and profit.

Well when reaper comes and your short and now need to cover it goes nuclear real fast.
post 1668547473 09-27-2022, 12:15 PM
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#419
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Nord Stream 1 sabotage news drops and the market drops 1% to a new low? This is definitely a possible catalyst for another leg down and the sale to continue.
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post 1668547963 09-27-2022, 12:22 PM
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Still higher bond yields on the way with Fed balance sheet dump.
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