I love real news from respectable people like this

Absolute horseshit. The only time Article 5 of NATO was ever invoked was after 9/11, when they stepped up to help the USA. NATO's a defensive alliance, not America's European army, to be deployed whenever America decides to go an yet another of their overseas adventures.

Not to mention some of the other raving dumbfuckery in here. Like this gem.

Oil prices, and insurance premiums for ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz will, going forward, have increased risk priced in. Previously it was a notional risk that Iran could close the Strait, now it's proven fact. That's not going away. Plus, the reason they're so high is because Dimwit Donnie started a war he has no idea how to get out of. Because he's a moron.

If you set a house on fire, you don't get credit for subsequently trying to put it out.



If you wrote this it's ignorant, if you asked AI, just don't.

Lol without even disputing your responses for now- no I didn't write it - its clearly a quote


Also- don't forget who you are talking to - ai ask me stuff.... :D

Oil infrastructure - production -locations- total amount extracted-and transportation corridors is rapidly shifting as result (and was already to begin with)

That combined with whatever works out there- yes it will drop.

We are needed that corridor less and less daily

Heck - in this hemisphere- you combine the heavies in Venezuela (now rapidly expanding) canada and Alaska- with us and US shale

We can make very rapid production ramp ups now.

This event helped the problematic front end cost associated when oil is too cheap to justify production expansion- but once the infrastructure is established the pricing is as consequential


We will be in great shape

Lmao. Domestic gas prices arent determined by oil ouput in the Americas when you're selling a global commodity numb nuts. How much oil is venezuela, producing, and how much is going to US heavy oil refineries? How is this benefiting main street in the short term and medium term?m

Yes it's a global commodity- total world supply increases total world prices mitigate- 1 region can't skew it as much

Then you add in the reduced extraction in regional areas with a more broad extraction, multiple types of oil in multiple region, and you left in the impact of a single pain point


Along with all the stuff going on in Venezuela in North America.z


Heck- even noth sea is increased

I always enjoy your fan-fiction.

The USA produces roughly 13 mb/d. Venezuala produces approximately 1mb/d. Canada is about 5. The traffic through the Straits transports 20 mb/d. Do the maths. Oil production facilities are multi-year multi-billion dollar setups. There are no "rapid production ramp ups", except in the case of existing shale oil fields, which can be spun up in typically within a few months. Conventional oil fields are 1-3 years, any new conventional fields are 5-15 years. Venezuala can't be counted on. The O&G companies have already had their assets seized once, and they are leery of it happening again.

To make up for the current "shortfalls" due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, there would have to be an expansion in global production by ~33%.

If the situation were as rosy as you think it is the SPR reserves wouldn't be so low. If the draw continues at current pace it will bottom out in August. For anyone interested, tank bottom is 150m barrels, after that is a red line where you end up with salt falls and cavern distortion.

Wishfully saying things will not make them happen.

You are making an incorrect assumption in your argument the this argument started assuming the strait is closed- and that I'm trying to argue a 100% make up of strait closed lost oil

The conversation started with the assumption that if a deal is made resulting in the Strait not closed anymore.

Then in post 33 you basically said many price/supply impacts are now “baked in permanently.” Thus impactg global supply
My argument is that even if some increases stick, the net impact is heavily mitigated — and in many cases reduced — by real supply growth elsewhere.

Oil is a global commodity, so extra barrels anywhere (including non-OPEC) increase total supply and moderate prices worldwide, including for barrels still moving through the Strait.
-Global supply effect — Extra Western Hemisphere production adds directly to total global supply. I.e rising non-OPEC output generally puts downward pressure on prices across the board, reducing net price pressure even on Strait barrels. https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/crudeoil/supply-nonopec.php

-US shale flexibility — Shale projects have lead times of just 1–18 months (vs. 5–8+ years for conventional fields). With stacked rigs and price incentives, we’ve repeatedly added hundreds of thousands of b/d in months, not years.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061115/how-long-does-it-take-oil-and-gas-producer-go-drilling-production.asp

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/u-s-oil-production/
• Venezuela heavy oil resurgence — Gulf Coast refineries were literally designed for Venezuelan crude. With recent shifts- US refiners (Valero, Chevron, etc.) are already ramping up imports again — those barrels are a natural fit - ans help displace other imports. Enen exon might be about to enter there after being hesitant

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-may-acquire-rights-produce-oil-venezuela-new-york-times-reports-2026-05-21/

-Canada + Alaska + US shale — A growing pool of North American barrels that don’t touch the Strait at all. EIA forecasts Alaska output jumping 13% in 2026 — one of the largest annual increases in decades. We were already trending this way pre-event. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66664
-Middle East producers reducing their own risk — UAE/ADNOC’s new West-East pipeline to Fujairah is already ~50% complete and fast-tracked for 2027 startup, roughly doubling their bypass capacity.

Saudi has the East-West line running at full 7 mb/d capacity. The old “everything flows through Hormuz or the world ends” model is eroding on both sides. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-uae-pipeline-bypassing-hormuz-now-50-complete-adnoc-ceo-says-2026-05-20/
SPR exists exactly for short-term shocks like this. Once the front-end disruption passes, higher prices also trigger demand response (efficiency gains, substitution, slower economic activity) on top of the supply response — exactly as markets have always worked.
This event doesn’t trap us as permanent hostages to one chokepoint.

As i said it actually accelerates the diversification and supply resilience trend that was already well underway.


We will be better coming out of it - especially when you consider oil will probably peak in a few years



*edit - 1 cavat of increased production- the companies have to know the prices will be high enough long enough to offset the starting cost- for some this only needs to be a few months- others longer- if they don't because the price isn't then it just naturally means the prices didn't spike anyway

Did not read. ;)

You bang aids patients. You have no room to talk, son...

At this point, you can't really believe anything you hear from Trump or the IRGC.

Read between the lines is the best you can do. Iran has a lot of opportunity. Iran could sell the uranium to the US at Disney prices and the US would pay for it. They could also demand all the sanctions lifted so they can sell their oil on the market like everyone else and I bet it would get signed.

OP fell for the same propaganda he has been lapping out up nonstop since Day 1 about this retarded war.

Since day 1 Ive said, at best, Im on the fence.

IMO It's still too early.