I agree set mining in three bet pots is bad but the only info we have is villain is laggy.

So even if he makes a bad flat you know for a fact it's with something speculative vs OP'S polarized range.

AA by villain 4 bets and looks to get in because he doesn't want two idiots in ep getting odds plus villain knows that initial UTG easier is still to act so a 4 bet is necessary to identify if OP is running a 3bet bluff.

Therefore we deduce that btn has a spec hand that hit hard on flop and if someone puts it in Pokerstove for me OP AKo is no better than a flip at best post flop and behind at worst.

It's a bad spot with only 1 pair to get his stack in.

Be cool to get a thread going of some hand analysis'. Can anyone give me their thoughts on a hand I played last weekend at the local casino? I'm about 6 months in playing live cash games and I'm still getting used to the lingo, anyway here we go:

2/5 NL 9 players

UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise with AK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop

flop: As 6h 2h

UTG checks, I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the button check raises me to $200 and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.

He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks

I don't think it's a bad fold. At 2/5 a guy who calls pre from the button could easily turn over 22, 66, or A2, and when he has the nut flush draw it's basically a coin flip. A reraise isnt going to happen if he has a worse ace here, and a bare flush draw like j10 hearts etc is simply priced in for an easy flop call.

As others have said I hate the flop bet size, make it around 1/2 pot. I could also make an argument to check AK out of position here to protect your range. That being said, low stakes live players sometimes don't even know what pot odds are and $55 bet size as a bluff could give you an amazing price on bluffs, kinda depends on the table you're at.

flush draw after the flop is not a flip, he's 32%at bestassuming no other players/burn cards took out his suit.

It's 45% at best, where have you got 32 from?

Itisessentially a flip so obviously a fold here isn't that bad if the player does not want to flip his stack?

9 outs to hit a flush after the flop (on turn or river) = 35%. I typically make it 8 outs as it's more realistic that someone has taken one of your suit.

You made 2 mistakes with this hand. The bet on the flop and the fold. By betting so light on the flop you're enticing any Ax to raise to around pot size (which villain here did).

With the raise to 15 and call of 35 and no re raise you can basically put your opponent on middle pair thru a10-aq suited possibly also AK unsuited possibly low suited connector. By raising to 200 he essentially told you weak ace, or flush draw(he ended up having both)... both of which you had beat.

Had you made a proper sized bet (120-150) and he shoved, you'd be looking at 430 or 450 to win 1100 ish at a little better than 2 to 1.

Of all the hands he would shove here with only 3 (of a possible 20+) would have you beat badly. It would be an easy call and you'd be getting your money in good.

Tl;Dr bet more on flop, shove his raise. Learn more about ranges (2+2 or poker books) to make situations like this easier. Alot of times what seems like a tough spot mathematically isn't.

Raise preflop to 75-100 depending on how loose table is.

You had a raise preflop to 15$ and a caller before you, a good rule of thumb for 3 bets is 3x + whats already raised and called.

As played with live poker, buttons range includes middle lowish pairs, and suited high cards.

As played with the weak cbet, hes never bluffing with air imo (because he still has other player to act other than you) but he is raising you with his draws.

The only reasonable hand that beats you is 66. Thats 3 combinations of hands.

Meanwhile he can raise any AXhh which lets say includes up to A10. Thats 4 combos there that we are a sight favourite against.

He will also raise all AK and maybe AQ/AJ with ace of hearts sometimes due to lowish bet from you, its bad but i see it often. Wont count all the combos but theyre a part of his range.

Now also due to weakish bet he may raise his QJhh and KQhh and T9hh.

So when you bet so small pre and flop you cant fold to a flop raise otherwise you will be folding way too much and will be bluffed out of too many pots.

Its ok to run into sets sometimes, think about the whole range not just one hand.

It's 45% at best, where have you got 32 from? A brick on the turn is still ~27% for the FD.

Itisessentially a flip so obviously a fold here isn't that bad if the player does not want to flip his stack?

a good rule of thumb yeah...if you wana blow your stack away within an hour of sitting down

45% you should flip your stack or just quit poker. In addition, there is money in the pot already, which makes your odds way higher.

If at a cash game someone shows you a hand where you are 55% favourite and you dont call, then you are playing at stakes youre not bankrolled for and should just go home.

Archi, please study more. Youve already said many wrong theoretical things in the thread.

Yes, but he doesn't have 9 outs? He has more. You can't analyse a hand ononepossible outcome?

The fact is, at the flop this hand is close to a flip, lol.

You're right, his only outs are hearts or another 9. OP has him exactly where he wants him, there's equity in the pot from pre-flop action and with AK he's at least 60%+ to win over double his money knowing he's not playing against 66 22 or A2.

If you aren't taking that action 100% of the time, you're playing at a table you don't have the bankroll for.

Archi, please study more. Youve already said many wrong theoretical things in the thread.

I showed you the number vs Ah9h on that board OP is 53%.

Where are you getting 65%?

I showed you the number vs Ah9h on that board OP is 53%.

Where are you getting 65%?

It's a flip at best. I ran it on cardplayer.

If you guys are willing to flip for your whole stack please come sit with me.

This. Where are you plucking these numbers from? It'sfactthis hand is 53 / 45 in favour of OP. (assuming no burns etc.)

AntiTroller please let me play you $2/5 HU I think we would have a great time.

That's not how it played out. There's already $300+ equity, it's not pre-flop action.

I will 100% take his odds to more than double my stack. It's straight up how you play poker. If you're scared to do that then you're playing at a table where the stakes are beyond your means.

The other dude is 45% to winAT BEST, and on a 9 seat table you can count on his outs being taken by other players. AK against that flop with the pre-flop action happening prior = free money.

You put in a simulator as if it was a heads up tournament. You think with 14 other cards out there he still has full outs? Each out taken is 4% off his chances. 14 cards taken with a 25% split is 3 more cards.

GTFO dude, you don't know what you're talking about.

I wad 4 mths away from turning full time pro and selling my business when black Friday hit.

I was making 1500 per month playing $.1/.25

You're right, seeing as I could push you off every hand on the basis that you wouldn't flip with well over 50% odds LMFAO.

I wad 4 mths away from turning full time pro and selling my business when black Friday hit.

I was making 1500 per month playing $.1/.25

You're boring and clearly don't play a lot of poker, bye.