Thread: Poker Hand Analysis Thread
04-24-2017, 07:13 AM
-
#1
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Poker Hand Analysis Thread
Be cool to get a thread going of some hand analysis'. Can anyone give me their thoughts on a hand I played last weekend at the local casino? I'm about 6 months in playing live cash games and I'm still getting used to the lingo, anyway here we go:
2/5 NL 9 players
UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise with AK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop
flop: As 6h 2h
UTG checks, I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the button check raises me to $200 and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.
He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks
2/5 NL 9 players
UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise with AK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop
flop: As 6h 2h
UTG checks, I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the button check raises me to $200 and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.
He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:19 AM
-
#2
04-24-2017, 07:19 AM
-
#3
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Originally Posted By CopeyDan⏩
you going to tell me why?should have gone all in bro
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:20 AM
-
#4
- umop3pisdn
- Registered Muser
-
- umop3pisdn
- Registered Muser
- Join Date: Jan 2009
- Posts: 15,406
- Rep Power: 77939
-
-
Never folding here brah.
04-24-2017, 07:22 AM
-
#5
04-24-2017, 07:22 AM
-
#6
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Originally Posted By umop3pisdn⏩
ok fair enough, but can you tell me the reasoning?Never folding here brah.
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:23 AM
-
#7
04-24-2017, 07:26 AM
-
#8
04-24-2017, 07:27 AM
-
#9
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Originally Posted By CopeyDan⏩
he's a thinking player, he's aggressive but he's not going to raise me as some sort of semi bluffTop pair and highest kicker vs someone who you know plays aggressive
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:29 AM
-
#10
- IvanNorge
- ScandyBrah
-
- IvanNorge
- ScandyBrah
- Join Date: Sep 2014
- Location: Norway
- Age: 38
- Posts: 2,285
- Rep Power: 6108
-
-
Originally Posted By MUSCLE-man-TOM⏩
He did raise you on a semi-bluff since he sensed weakness with the bet of 55 into a 180 $ pothe's a thinking player, he's aggressive but he's not going to raise me as some sort of semi bluff
Powerlifting 2020
04-24-2017, 07:29 AM
-
#11
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Originally Posted By IvanNorge⏩
stacks were around $650-$850Why bet so little on the flop? You should have bet bigger, say 130-150. What are stack sizes?
Also, snap shove on that check raise from that player.
Also, snap shove on that check raise from that player.
figured my AK was way ahead but yeah looking back I defs should have bet more, kinda didn't want to bet too big being out of position, but I guess now that I think about it, kinda makes my hand look weak
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:31 AM
-
#12
- IvanNorge
- ScandyBrah
-
- IvanNorge
- ScandyBrah
- Join Date: Sep 2014
- Location: Norway
- Age: 38
- Posts: 2,285
- Rep Power: 6108
-
-
Originally Posted By MUSCLE-man-TOM⏩
It makes your hand looks like something like QQ,JJ that is facing one overcard on the flop.stacks were around $650-$850
figured my AK was way ahead but yeah looking back I defs should have bet more, kinda didn't want to bet too big being out of position, but I guess now that I think about it, kinda makes my hand look weak
figured my AK was way ahead but yeah looking back I defs should have bet more, kinda didn't want to bet too big being out of position, but I guess now that I think about it, kinda makes my hand look weak
Next time bet 70-80 % pot in situations like this one against that villain.
Powerlifting 2020
04-24-2017, 07:34 AM
-
#13
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Originally Posted By IvanNorge⏩
thanks that makes a lot of sense, hypothetically if I did bet around that % of the pot and he check raised me all in for $650, do you think I should make the call?It makes your hand looks like something like QQ,JJ that is facing one overcard on the flop.
Next time bet 70-80 % pot in situations like this one against that villain.
Next time bet 70-80 % pot in situations like this one against that villain.
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:35 AM
-
#14
- munchdatwhey
- Registered User
-
- munchdatwhey
- Registered User
- Join Date: Oct 2011
- Age: 34
- Posts: 445
- Rep Power: 4140
-
-
First off, you prob should be posting on twoplustwo, you'll get better advice there. Also we need to know starting stack sizes to make a decent analysis. $50 preflop squeeze is slightly too small, I would make it $60, as there is already 2 players in the pot, you want to get this pot heads up. Now when the button flats in position, I would expect him to have maybe tt, jj, qq, aqs/o, aks/o and maybe kk/AA slowplaying (more unlikely). This flop is great for your range, TPTK, I would be betting 2/3 pot, as you have no backdoor hearts, so any heart on the turn is going to minimise the amount of money you're able to put into the pot, so you want to build the pot up (under 1/3 pot is way way too small). if you had ak of hearts it would be different). Now when villian raises your cbet, hands that beat you are either aa, a6, 66, 22, a2. If he is a reg the only hand he should be flatting in position vs your 3bet that beats you on this board is aa. Since you block this it is much more unlikely he has it. I would say that he is much more weighted to flushdraws, maybe aq or even ako and when the initial raiser folds I think you need to get it in. More often than not you're going to be a head and sometimes chopping.
04-24-2017, 07:35 AM
-
#15
04-24-2017, 07:39 AM
-
#16
- IvanNorge
- ScandyBrah
-
- IvanNorge
- ScandyBrah
- Join Date: Sep 2014
- Location: Norway
- Age: 38
- Posts: 2,285
- Rep Power: 6108
-
-
Originally Posted By MUSCLE-man-TOM⏩
Tough call for sure...it depends on the table dynamics, villain, position etc. There are many factors that contribute to every single hand in poker.thanks that makes a lot of sense, hypothetically if I did bet around that % of the pot and he check raised me all in for $650, do you think I should make the call?
Also, do you have history with that particular villain? That plays a huge role as well. Many players are playing with their egos, not with hand reading, player reading and such.
Powerlifting 2020
04-24-2017, 07:41 AM
-
#17
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
-
- MUSCLE-man-TOM
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2010
- Age: 33
- Posts: 342
- Rep Power: 0
-
-
Originally Posted By munchdatwhey⏩
it's $500 max buy in, most stacks are anywhere between 300-1k mine was roughly $650 and button was about the sameFirst off, you prob should be posting on twoplustwo, you'll get better advice there. Also we need to know starting stack sizes to make a decent analysis. $50 preflop squeeze is slightly too small, I would make it $60, as there is already 2 players in the pot, you want to get this pot heads up. Now when the button flats in position, I would expect him to have maybe tt, jj, qq, aqs/o, aks/o and maybe kk/AA slowplaying (more unlikely). This flop is great for your range, TPTK, I would be betting 2/3 pot, as you have no backdoor hearts, so any heart on the turn is going to minimise the amount of money you're able to put into the pot, so you want to build the pot up (under 1/3 pot is way way too small). if you had ak of hearts it would be different). Now when villian raises your cbet, hands that beat you are either aa, a6, 66, 22, a2. If he is a reg the only hand he should be flatting in position vs your 3bet that beats you on this board is aa. Since you block this it is much more unlikely he has it. I would say that he is much more weighted to flushdraws, maybe aq or even ako and when the initial raiser folds I think you need to get it in. More often than not you're going to be a head and sometimes chopping.
should I typically disregard sets if I get into this type of position again? I've been busted a few times in similar situations with AK and lost my entire stack from jamming the flop
**Misc Entrepreneurship Crew**
**Got 99 Problems But A Niche Aint One Crew**
04-24-2017, 07:43 AM
-
#18
- munchdatwhey
- Registered User
-
- munchdatwhey
- Registered User
- Join Date: Oct 2011
- Age: 34
- Posts: 445
- Rep Power: 4140
-
-
Originally Posted By MUSCLE-man-TOM⏩
I would never expect button to have a set of 66 or 22 here (possibly AA, but unlikely) and UTG could potentially have sets here as your preflop sizing was too small giving him decent odds to call with 66/22 (that is even opens 22 UTG)should I typically disregard sets if I get into this type of position again? I've been busted a few times in similar situations with AK and lost my entire stack from jamming the flop
04-24-2017, 07:44 AM
-
#19
04-24-2017, 07:46 AM
-
#20
04-24-2017, 07:46 AM
-
#21
- umop3pisdn
- Registered Muser
-
- umop3pisdn
- Registered Muser
- Join Date: Jan 2009
- Posts: 15,406
- Rep Power: 77939
-
-
Originally Posted By munchdatwhey⏩
Does the button 4bet pre here with 66 and 22 everytime?I would never expect button to have a set of 66 or 22 here (possibly AA, but unlikely) and UTG could potentially have sets here as your preflop sizing was too small giving him decent odds to call with 66/22 (that is even opens 22 UTG)
04-24-2017, 07:52 AM
-
#22
- disphugginflip
- Registered User
-
- disphugginflip
- Registered User
- Join Date: Aug 2008
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Posts: 6,214
- Rep Power: 9033
-
-
First of all, how tf can the button check raise you? Second, you left yourself open to a bluff with your weak C-bet. Your C-bet should have been in the 100-140 range. Now I know this guy is a super aggressive but you cant really give him credit for 66, 22, A6, or A2 to a 3-bet pre. His likely hand is AJ-AQ to AXhh. You have all 3 winning and 2 of them crushed. His bet sizing from $55 to $200 is weird to me. Think if he had a set, hed try to make it more appealing for you to call.
I think the play here was to call the flop then jam the turn if a non heart came.
Edit: NEVER show your cards unless it has some strategic value. You just told the table youre able to be pushed around if they bet hard enough.
I think the play here was to call the flop then jam the turn if a non heart came.
Edit: NEVER show your cards unless it has some strategic value. You just told the table youre able to be pushed around if they bet hard enough.
04-24-2017, 07:59 AM
-
#23
04-24-2017, 08:05 AM
-
#24
- Archigainz
- Registered User
-
- Archigainz
- Registered User
- Join Date: Mar 2017
- Age: 32
- Posts: 204
- Rep Power: 2668
-
-
Originally Posted By MUSCLE-man-TOM⏩
This hand has so much value, raise to ~$70Be cool to get a thread going of some hand analysis'. Can anyone give me their thoughts on a hand I played last weekend at the local casino? I'm about 6 months in playing live cash games and I'm still getting used to the lingo, anyway here we go:
2/5 NL 9 players
UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise withAK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop
flop: As 6h 2h
UTG checks,I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the buttoncheck raises me to $200and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.
He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks
2/5 NL 9 players
UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise withAK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop
flop: As 6h 2h
UTG checks,I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the buttoncheck raises me to $200and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.
He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks
With that flop, $55 gives people with FD (a set is so unlikely here you can almost disregard it imo) such a good price to see the next card & (to me) it shows exactly what you have (AQs/AKs with no draw) My bet would be $105 - and at this point i've accepted my whole stack is going in on the turn if he calls
You have to fold here as he knows exactly what you have unless you wana flip for ~$1k
Never ever ever show your cards to the table, why would you give free information away to people who are trying to win your money? Idc how 'friendly' the table was
From my experience cash games are full of big talkers with little knowledge of logical poker thinking they're just looking to flip 52/48 pots for big money.
EDIT: I'm a tournament player, btw, so my reasoning may be slightly skewed.
04-24-2017, 08:12 AM
-
#25
- IntelExchange
- ERA - Ameno
-
- IntelExchange
- ERA - Ameno
- Join Date: Nov 2016
- Location: Romania
- Posts: 3,705
- Rep Power: 20503
-
-
fold at first call or all in crew
HTC Crew
Armwrestling Crew
"He who laughs at himself never runs out of things to laugh at"
Adolf Hitler - 30 April 1945, before pulling the trigger.
04-24-2017, 08:19 AM
-
#26
- GolfPants
- Registered Miscer
-
- GolfPants
- Registered Miscer
- Join Date: Jul 2008
- Posts: 16,671
- Rep Power: 70847
-
-
I do not like your bet on the flop. You are begging a flush draw to play with you. Bet bigger there.
I agree that your decisions were to fold or shove once he raises. But knowing what you know about this player, I'm cramming all in and hoping for the best.
I am a medicore player at best though fwiw
I agree that your decisions were to fold or shove once he raises. But knowing what you know about this player, I'm cramming all in and hoping for the best.
I am a medicore player at best though fwiw
I call it "Celebration". It's sexual, and violent...
New Jersey Crew (732)
04-24-2017, 08:20 AM
-
#27
- leoslayer1
- Registered User
-
- leoslayer1
- Registered User
- Join Date: Feb 2013
- Location: United States
- Age: 56
- Posts: 27,840
- Rep Power: 194666
-
-
Originally Posted By MUSCLE-man-TOM⏩
You were behind on the flop so what can you reasonably expect to beat. If he's laggy the worst hand he represents is the one he showed.Be cool to get a thread going of some hand analysis'. Can anyone give me their thoughts on a hand I played last weekend at the local casino? I'm about 6 months in playing live cash games and I'm still getting used to the lingo, anyway here we go:
2/5 NL 9 players
UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise with AK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop
flop: As 6h 2h
UTG checks, I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the button check raises me to $200 and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.
He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks
2/5 NL 9 players
UTG opens for $15, UTG+1 calls and folds to me in MP which I come in for a raise with AK of diamonds for $50, it Folds to the button who makes the call and the initial raiser calls. we go 3 ways to the flop
flop: As 6h 2h
UTG checks, I bet $55 into a pot of $180, the button check raises me to $200 and the UTG folds.
The player on the button is a local reg at the casino, he's a very good aggressive player and is capable of having a wide range of hands with a $55 pre flop bet in position. I have a very tight image on the table and he knows I'm not leading out with anything less than AK in this position. If I flat the flop I know there's a very good chance he's going to jam all in on the turn regardless of what comes out, so I figure I have 2 options, either to fold or jam on the flop. I give it some thought and ultimately come to the conclusion to fold, I'm getting just a little over 2-1 to call and I just can't see how I am ever ahead in this situation.
He shows me Ah 9h, and said he would have snapped called me if I jambed my $650 stack on the flop. I was basically called an idiot at the table after revealing to them I had AK.
But with a little over 2-1 pot odds and essentially being at the very bottom of the range for calling the flop I dont' see how I could have made the call, even the flush draw. what are you thoughts? thanks
Sets, two pairs on flop all hit his range.
U
04-24-2017, 08:25 AM
-
#28
- disphugginflip
- Registered User
-
- disphugginflip
- Registered User
- Join Date: Aug 2008
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Posts: 6,214
- Rep Power: 9033
-
-
Originally Posted By leoslayer1⏩
Uh no. Cold calling 3-bets pre with 66, 22, A6, or A2 is still bad even for an agro. Even if he did why raise 4x after the flop? If OP had an effective stack of $650 why not try to milk him for his entire stack if thats the case?You were behind on the flop so what can you reasonably expect to beat. If he's laggy the worst hand he represents is the one he showed.
Sets, two pairs on flop all hit his range.
Sets, two pairs on flop all hit his range.
04-24-2017, 08:33 AM
-
#29
- leoslayer1
- Registered User
-
- leoslayer1
- Registered User
- Join Date: Feb 2013
- Location: United States
- Age: 56
- Posts: 27,840
- Rep Power: 194666
-
-
Originally Posted By disphugginflip⏩
I agree set mining in three bet pots is bad but the only info we have is villain is laggy.Uh no. Cold calling 3-bets pre with 66, 22, A6, or A2 is still bad even for an agro. Even if he did why raise 4x after the flop? If OP had an effective stack of $650 why not try to milk him for his entire stack if thats the case?
So even if he makes a bad flat you know for a fact it's with something speculative vs OP'S polarized range.
AA by villain 4 bets and looks to get in because he doesn't want two idiots in ep getting odds plus villain knows that initial UTG easier is still to act so a 4 bet is necessary to identify if OP is running a 3bet bluff.
Therefore we deduce that btn has a spec hand that hit hard on flop and if someone puts it in Pokerstove for me OP AKo is no better than a flip at best post flop and behind at worst.
It's a bad spot with only 1 pair to get his stack in.
U
04-24-2017, 08:34 AM
-
#30
- foreverSNAFU
- A.W.E.S.O.M. - O
-
- foreverSNAFU
- A.W.E.S.O.M. - O
- Join Date: Jun 2011
- Age: 40
- Posts: 9,034
- Rep Power: 9425
-
-
Two hearts on the table and two in his hand? You made the right call.
► South Florida Crew
Bookmarks
-
- Digg
-
- del.icio.us
-
- StumbleUpon
-
-
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts