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Forum » Investing with RealLifeAlpha
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Thread: Investing with RealLifeAlpha

post 1631361193 02-14-2021, 08:30 AM
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#31
  1. donblaximus
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Originally Posted By RealLifeAlpha⏩
absolutely -- it's very easy for people to look like geniuses in a bull market.



in my opinion however, what makes most of these companies appealing is that "digital transformation" (cringe buzzword) is not going anywhere. adoption of cloud software and ancillary product niches are proliferating, ESPECIALLY due to COVID19 which is going to change the way the world works forever.


For example -- I sell HR Software. Right now I am currently in the middle of selling my software to Deloitte (the largest consulting firm in the world). Key players in their HR org have shared with me that they need more consultants right now than ever before, because the demand for large enterprise software installs and consults for products likeWorkday, Servicenow, Salesforce, Amazon Web Services, SAP, Crowdstrike, etc.is at an all time high.

With increasingly distributed workforces, companies are becoming more reliant on technology, and this is a trend I don't see reversing itself any time soon
Agreed, I used to work for Salesforce and sold their PaaS offering so used the similar strategy you did. Talk to a bunch of CIOs, VPs of App Dev, LOB executives and you can start to see where things are headed. Before that I was in enterprise infrastructure so made a pretty decent amount of money pushing all in on the Vmware IPO back in the day. I invest in analytics platforms, got in on appn and twlo a few years ago and i think robotics is also another large area thats going to sky rocket. I deal with tech in the industrial space. I do feel a lot of tech companies are a bit over valued right now but long haul, the good ones will be fine.
post 1631361243 02-14-2021, 08:31 AM
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#32
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Originally Posted By RealLifeAlpha⏩
absolutely -- it's very easy for people to look like geniuses in a bull market.



in my opinion however, what makes most of these companies appealing is that "digital transformation" (cringe buzzword) is not going anywhere. adoption of cloud software and ancillary product niches are proliferating, ESPECIALLY due to COVID19 which is going to change the way the world works forever.


For example -- I sell HR Software. Right now I am currently in the middle of selling my software to Deloitte (the largest consulting firm in the world). Key players in their HR org have shared with me that they need more consultants right now than ever before, because the demand for large enterprise software installs and consults for products likeWorkday, Servicenow, Salesforce, Amazon Web Services, SAP, Crowdstrike, etc.is at an all time high.

With increasingly distributed workforces, companies are becoming more reliant on technology, and this is a trend I don't see reversing itself any time soon
Yeah, I'm definitely not saying you're wrong and I'm sure you're aware of the fact everyone has been a stock picking genius over the last 5+ years. I'm mostly adding it to temper expectations of people who may see stuff like that and dump all their savings into copying your posted portfolio.

Seems like you also have a healthy, boring old account with a good amount of your net worth in it so a big tech sector reset wouldn't be a world ender for you.

Personally I'm starting to back away from investing and instead trying to stack cash in "high" yield savings now as i think we're overdue for some excellent buying opportunities. No way this ridiculous stock and real estate ride is going to keep going.
post 1631361283 02-14-2021, 08:31 AM
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#33
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Originally Posted By amelielens⏩
in 2019 Ken griffin ceo of Citadel bought a $250 million dollar penthouse condo in Manhattan

the condo was paid for retail traders trying to hit it big on options.

Options feel so damn good because thats the only way market makers get young naive people to throw their money away.

If I feel like gambling id rather bet on a football game
No doubt that’s the case for many people but there are ways to lower your risk profile and not be a total retard w/ options. I pretty reliably make money w/ all my options plays cause I pick decently far out exp. dates. I just suck ass at selling at a good time, always sell too early.
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post 1631361413 02-14-2021, 08:33 AM
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#34
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
Yeah, I'm definitely not saying you're wrong and I'm sure you're aware of the fact everyone has been a stock picking genius over the last 5+ years. I'm mostly adding it to temper expectations of people who may see stuff like that and dump all their savings into copying your posted portfolio.

Seems like you also have a healthy, boring old account with a good amount of your net worth in it so a big tech sector reset wouldn't be a world ender for you.

Personally I'm starting to back away from investing and instead trying to stack cash in "high" yield savings now as i think we're overdue for some excellent buying opportunities. No way this ridiculous stock and real estate ride is going to keep going.
Stack cash in high yield savings while the power of the dollar continues to diminish? Curious on more details here?
Why not just ride the wave gather your 20-30% and find an exit point while the wave is crashing?
post 1631361453 02-14-2021, 08:34 AM
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#35
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if you're not an advantageous position w/ market information for a specific market

you'd put it all into ETF? that's what I'm doing right now. Without knowledge momentum seems the best factor > growth/value factor, >large/small cap factor, to get some additional returns over time compared to the general market. I'm in this one ETF:




Will sell of some and follow your picks. I believe in how you choose your picks, semi inside information / solid analysis per pick based upon what happens in the real world.
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post 1631361633 02-14-2021, 08:36 AM
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#36
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Originally Posted By DimTriad⏩
Could you share how you calculate your exit points? This more than anything else has cost me monumentally (exiting too early-literally has cost me over 150k)
It hasn't cost you its probably saved you from losing just as much.
post 1631361733 02-14-2021, 08:39 AM
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#37
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Originally Posted By donblaximus⏩
I was just talking to my brother about this the other day. Feels just like the dot com boom and bust where anything tech was going through the roof without the fundamentals to back it up. Especially in the AI field. Im riding the wave (why not) but I am keeping a close eye on the changing tide and I have already calculated my exit points for my major individual stock holdings when that tide shifts.
“Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It’s like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything’s going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, ‘one more dance,’ and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice.” - Warren Buffett

“Even very smart people have trouble not getting caught up in the game and thinking ‘I’ll just dance one more dance’ like Cinderella at five minutes to twelve. They think they’re smarter than the rest of the public and even though they know it will end, they’ll get out a little sooner or they don’t protect themselves against something that will come totally from right field. If you take the numbers 28, we’ll talk percentages, 28 times 33 times 17 times 22 times 0, the answer is 0. You can’t have a 0 in there and I’ve seen a lot of people put up a lot of good numbers and then they stuck a 0 in there and it’s over.” - Warren Buffett
post 1631361783 02-14-2021, 08:40 AM
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#38
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we should get a discord group going.
pls do not associate my personalities in misc and sports misc
post 1631361803 02-14-2021, 08:40 AM
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#39
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Originally Posted By VinnyPazRules⏩
It hasn't cost you its probably saved you from losing just as much.
Raped for positive perspective
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post 1631361973 02-14-2021, 08:43 AM
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#40
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Originally Posted By donblaximus⏩
Stack cash in high yield savings while the power of the dollar continues to diminish? Curious on more details here?
Why not just ride the wave gather your 20-30% and find an exit point while the wave is crashing?
Nobody knows when it's going to crash. I still invest some, but taking a chance that RE and stocks won't continue climbing much longer. I think a lot of the gains over the last year have been made at the expense of middle class and below America and been masked by policies that don't allow evictions, increased unemployment and injected a ridiculous amount of cash into the economy.

Eventually the evictions and foreclosures will come, unemployment will stop, and a bunch of small businesses will be gone. Meanwhile inflation is still very low.

Who knows though, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm not. I missed out on bitcoin so I'll survive missing out on another year or so of gains with some cash. The fact we're having this conversation means we're both probably in high percentile groups for net worth and will still be whether I'm right or wrong so in the big scheme of things who cares? Good probablem to have.
post 1631361993 02-14-2021, 08:43 AM
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#41
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Originally Posted By GordonXXX⏩
“Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It’s like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything’s going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, ‘one more dance,’ and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice.” - Warren Buffett

“Even very smart people have trouble not getting caught up in the game and thinking ‘I’ll just dance one more dance’ like Cinderella at five minutes to twelve. They think they’re smarter than the rest of the public and even though they know it will end, they’ll get out a little sooner or they don’t protect themselves against something that will come totally from right field. If you take the numbers 28, we’ll talk percentages, 28 times 33 times 17 times 22 times 0, the answer is 0. You can’t have a 0 in there and I’ve seen a lot of people put up a lot of good numbers and then they stuck a 0 in there and it’s over.” - Warren Buffett
Again, no disagreement however why wouldnt I take 200% in the last few years (ride the wave) and when the market turns get out after even a 30-35% quick downturn?
post 1631362103 02-14-2021, 08:45 AM
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#42
  1. VinnyPazRules
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
Nobody knows when it's going to crash. I still invest some, but taking a chance that RE and stocks won't continue climbing much longer. I think a lot of the gains over the last year have been made at the expense of middle class and below America and been masked by policies that don't allow evictions, increased unemployment and injected a ridiculous amount of cash into the economy.

Eventually the evictions and foreclosures will come, unemployment will stop, and a bunch of small businesses will be gone. Meanwhile inflation is still very low.

Who knows though, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm not. I missed out on bitcoin so I'll survive missing out on another year or so of gains with some cash.
Your not wrong but everything going down for a while doesn't mean utter collapse. Recessions are normal and there shouldn't even be another one as bad as 2008 in our lifetimes.
post 1631362233 02-14-2021, 08:47 AM
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#43
  1. RealLifeAlpha
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gordo pointing to sort of a lame idea



no **** there will prob be an enormous “crash” in the next 5 years, but if your investment horizon is decades long there’s no reason to worry if you believe long term in the companies you invest in


if anything I’ll just buy more when this happens assuming I have cash (ded fkn Srs)
~focus on what you can control crew~
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~you are who you surround yourself with crew~
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~nothing is permanent so just enjoy the ride crew~
~2.5 inch dink crew~
~Forgive yourself crew~
~Accused of incest by extended family crew~
~It's up to you to fix your life crew~
~deep, sustained sexual eye contact with your own nephew crew~
post 1631362243 02-14-2021, 08:47 AM
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#44
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Originally Posted By donblaximus⏩
Again, no disagreement however why wouldnt I take 200% in the last few years (ride the wave) and when the market turns get out after even a 30-35% quick downturn?
yes. good luck. i'm sure you'll time your exit perfectly.
post 1631362283 02-14-2021, 08:48 AM
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#45
  1. donblaximus
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
Nobody knows when it's going to crash. I still invest some, but taking a chance that RE and stocks won't continue climbing much longer. I think a lot of the gains over the last year have been made at the expense of middle class and below America and been masked by policies that don't allow evictions, increased unemployment and injected a ridiculous amount of cash into the economy.

Eventually the evictions and foreclosures will come, unemployment will stop, and a bunch of small businesses will be gone. Meanwhile inflation is still very low.

Who knows though, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm not. I missed out on bitcoin so I'll survive missing out on another year or so of gains with some cash.
All good. Respect. We just have differing perspectives. For me, cash is the absolute last place I want my money. I am consistently putting some money in cryptos as my hedge. I continue to pump money into the market. I actually believe the market is overly inflated and lots of company valuations are waaay out of line however if the momentum is headed up why not bet on solid companies and make some money while its happening. I believed this was the case even when the DOW was at 22k in the middle of a pandemic. I am keeping a very close eye on the market. I feel it could fall any day now and have already built my exit points for major holdings. I have stopped looking to put money in real estate at this point.
post 1631362373 02-14-2021, 08:49 AM
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#46
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Originally Posted By VinnyPazRules⏩
Your not wrong but everything going down for a while doesn't mean utter collapse. Recessions are normal and there shouldn't even be another one as bad as 2008 in our lifetimes.
Yeah fair enough, I still put around 25% of my earnings into the market, but cut back from my pre 2021 mark of around 40%. That 15% now gets saved.
post 1631362483 02-14-2021, 08:50 AM
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#47
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Bro, I have a sure fire way to get your TD account to $1M in like a month. Ded fkn srs
post 1631362583 02-14-2021, 08:52 AM
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#48
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Originally Posted By GordonXXX⏩
yes. good luck. i'm sure you'll time your exit perfectly.
Nobody said I would time my exit perfectly. If you look I said 35% down turn. Dont be salty because you could have turned your $4M into $8M in the last 18months (conservatively). So what if that $8M is down to $6M on your exit point. Still better than where you started.
post 1631362653 02-14-2021, 08:53 AM
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#49
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I wish you the best in your investments but I would not be sharing this publicly. Jmo.
I probably banged your mom.

Eat the whole animal like a real man.
post 1631362803 02-14-2021, 08:54 AM
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#50
  1. RealLifeAlpha
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Originally Posted By OT2000⏩
I wish you the best in your investments but I would not be sharing this publicly. Jmo.
I sort of thought about this but couldn’t think of a risky enough reason not to — why do you think it’s a bad idea?

might delete based on your feedback lol (ded fkn Srs)
~focus on what you can control crew~
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~nothing is permanent so just enjoy the ride crew~
~2.5 inch dink crew~
~Forgive yourself crew~
~Accused of incest by extended family crew~
~It's up to you to fix your life crew~
~deep, sustained sexual eye contact with your own nephew crew~
post 1631362933 02-14-2021, 08:57 AM
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#51
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Originally Posted By RealLifeAlpha⏩
I sort of thought about this but couldn’t think of a risky enough reason not to — why do you think it’s a bad idea?

might delete based on your feedback lol (ded fkn Srs)
getting misc detectived for your monnies

inb4 some miscer bertstares you to sleep
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post 1631362953 02-14-2021, 08:58 AM
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#52
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These technology names are so overpriced it’s actually crazy. Zoom is currently valued at $126billion and they had less than $1billion in revenue last quarter, less than $200million net income

Long-term value investors should be looking at these valuations with a critical eye, I definitely wouldn’t be buying any of these companies at current prices and after the run they’ve had


Well maybe Apple but at least they pay out a tiny dividend for the risk you’re taking on
post 1631363003 02-14-2021, 08:59 AM
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#53
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Originally Posted By donblaximus⏩
Nobody said I would time my exit perfectly. If you look I said 35% down turn. Dont be salty because you could have turned your $4M into $8M in the last 18months (conservatively). So what if that $8M is down to $6M on your exit point. Still better than where you started.
I don't need to risk what I have for something I don't need. You're either in the get rich business or the stay rich business. I'm in the stay rich business. You only need to get rich once.
post 1631363043 02-14-2021, 09:00 AM
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#54
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in as ****
post 1631363143 02-14-2021, 09:01 AM
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#55
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Thoughts on CLDR & FLNT?

Inb4 delete
post 1631363233 02-14-2021, 09:02 AM
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#56
  1. RealLifeAlpha
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Originally Posted By drvillain⏩
Thoughts on CLDR & FLNT?

Inb4 delete
Cloudera yes Fluent I really don’t know enough about (ded fkn Srs)
~focus on what you can control crew~
~flaccid cummer crew~
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~mum was an escort crew~
~nothing is permanent so just enjoy the ride crew~
~2.5 inch dink crew~
~Forgive yourself crew~
~Accused of incest by extended family crew~
~It's up to you to fix your life crew~
~deep, sustained sexual eye contact with your own nephew crew~
post 1631363463 02-14-2021, 09:07 AM
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#57
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Originally Posted By RealLifeAlpha⏩
gordo pointing to sort of a lame idea



no **** there will prob be an enormous “crash” in the next 5 years, but if your investment horizon is decades long there’s no reason to worry if you believe long term in the companies you invest in


if anything I’ll just buy more when this happens assuming I have cash (ded fkn Srs)
Yeah but you should worry about it. Ideally you would take your money out right before a crash then buy back cheaper?

If you have a brokerage account with robinhood or fidelity or whoever can you buy stocks on the weekends when the markets closed?
post 1631363693 02-14-2021, 09:10 AM
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#58
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Originally Posted By GordonXXX⏩
I don't need to risk what I have for something I don't need. You're either in the get rich business or the stay rich business. I'm in the stay rich business. You only need to get rich once.
Big deal you were probably born into it
post 1631363733 02-14-2021, 09:11 AM
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#59
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Originally Posted By VinnyPazRules⏩
Yeah but you should worry about it. Ideally you would take your money out right before a crash then buy back cheaper?
in a perfect world yeah I would love to do this — but I can’t pretend to know how to time the market and anyone who tells you they can is lying to you (ded fkn Srs)
~focus on what you can control crew~
~flaccid cummer crew~
~you are who you surround yourself with crew~
~mum was an escort crew~
~nothing is permanent so just enjoy the ride crew~
~2.5 inch dink crew~
~Forgive yourself crew~
~Accused of incest by extended family crew~
~It's up to you to fix your life crew~
~deep, sustained sexual eye contact with your own nephew crew~
post 1631363933 02-14-2021, 09:14 AM
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#60
  1. donblaximus
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Originally Posted By GordonXXX⏩
I don't need to risk what I have for something I don't need. You're either in the get rich business or the stay rich business. I'm in the stay rich business. You only need to get rich once.
If your money is in the market, its at risk. When the market turns, are you saying your portfolio value will not go down?
And im sure the response will be, "yes but my lifestyle wont change". And I agree. And most people playing the momentum of the market will not either unless they are gambling. My lifestyle will not change drastically either. When I say drastically, I mean I wont be buying a private jet any time soon (will never), but it sure is nice to be able to build a house on the lake or beach for my family to enjoy.
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