I'm fairly intoxicated, but usually in times such as these M/A activity usually jumps. IPOs of course more or less stop occurring though.

Also, short any company whose primary function is mortgage origination or refinancing.

More notes...



^^^
The money supply must continue to grow. However...




^^^
There has been an attempt to decrease it.







And we are here...

"the damage a decrease in reserves do is huge if you manage to go below a critical threshold,and no one knows where that threshold is."




Meanwhile...




We didn't enter into this experiment from a strong position..."40% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable".

We have zombies.And could be on the road to a Minsky Moment.



Link:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...cation-economy

Maybe because their dogchit equity doesn’t represent the 1.5 trillion aum that fuks with the entire market If they default?

It's possible that Van Metre is making a false implication. FWIW I've seen the meeting brought up elsewhere too.

I believe that it is at least fair to say that we are in uncharted territory.

- shut down much of the real economy [reduce supply of goods and services]
- loads of government spending [increase the supply of money]
- turn the real economy back on again [but it hasn't gone so smoothly]
- attempt to reduce the supply of money

A large movement into physical assets and precious metals indicates a loss of trust. And I still wonder what's up with derivatives.

I'm 50/50 on which is going to be first at this point. WWIII or the greatest financial collapse of all time.

Thanks Boomers.

Those were supposed to be 2 separate statements. Didn't realize they had 1.5T tho ayyyyyyy lmao I wonder how deep their hole is ayyyyy lmao

I’ve worked for CS in the past. They’re private banking business is second to none. They effectively manage some
Of the richest people in the world. Not gonna name names but one of the richest man in the world effectively has his wealth with CS. CS might be a punching bag but honestly I can’t see how DB ML MS GS BoA would be in any better of a positon.

We’ve had a run economic but we need a 3 year collapse. The people who bought homes recently will get the butt****ign here.

Same bank that “prints” money out of thin air, lends it, and charges interest? lmao lmao lmao

In the U.S.???? I guess we missed the too big to fail bus.

There's no more road left to kick the can down. Something is about to break.

I have my Antonio Brown in my hand, ready to do some drive-by buttings.

Pltr

wow started this thread thinking a major IB was going under....
instead Katya now has me thinking the world is going to end..

Here’s a preview!

Oh I'm pretty sure the planet will still be here. But can't say how long this can kicking game can continue.

Today I heard more reports about people having difficulty withdrawing cash from their banks. One said there was a sign up stating that for withdrawals of more than $2,000 customers would have to make an appointment in advance. Two [three?] reports from people saying they were told they could withdraw a maximum of $5,000 and the interesting bit about that was one said the bank employee told them it was because of new rules from the Fed re:the maximum amount of physical cash that the bank is allowed to have in their vault.


China is supposed to be dumping US$

China tells state banks to prepare for a massive dollar dump and yuan buying spree as Beijing's prior interventions have failed to stem its currency's worst year since 1994Link:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...ed-hike-2022-9


$47 Trillion in derivatives at DB




Big US banks loaded up with derivatives.Link:
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/...sehold-wealth/

^^^
Why is this relevant now? See that last part about DB and CS being counterparties?


Other banks that also aren't looking to healthy.

2008 “crisis” had 0 effect on me, parents and friends.

Economists, educate me on the implications of financial crisis stemming from this for the average person?

what? I graduated right after the financial crisis and it was extremely hard for people to find jobs. I'd say more than half my peers had to take a a year or longer to find a job, many taking minimum wage jobs. It took years for many to find something that wasn't min wage.

had family members under water on their homes and they were forced to raise growing families in tiny townhomes they bought until price finally went up (about 10 years later.....)

Not an economist, just watching from the cheap seats.

In 2008 there was a loss of trust between counterparties [banks did not trust other banks, spike in the LIBOR].

There are plenty of moving parts and today Mannarino gave a more detailed explanation of the currency crisis and liquidity crisis if you want to check it out.



When trust is lost transactions fail. > Without trusted transactions the exchange of goods and services would grind to a halt [or close enough].

All of the currencies have been inflated/devalued and recently this has been done even more rapidly than before. The US$ is presently the strongest currency, but it isn't because the Federal Reserve hasn't also been lowering purchasing power, it's mostly because of the global reserve status.

If this system truly fails then all of the goods and services that you purchase regularly will cease to circulate. The system would freeze up due to a loss of trust- meaning the buyer and seller not trusting each other [counterparties] or not trusting the financial institutions [banks] or not trusting the unit of exchange [currency].

I was warning people that I knew in 2008 also. Then the banks and corporations were screwed. Then the reserve banks tapped the sovereigns and also went into long term quantitative easing so like you said nothing much happened outside of a market downturn, some houses getting foreclosed on, a few banks going tits up, etc.

This time? I think it's broken and there will be default/reset.

What is most scary though is that they have known where the road was heading all this time and have been making moves to position themselves advantageously.

It would be nice if we get a legitimate functioning crypto system, or even revert to real metal coins. But that is unlikely unless the central banks are killed and we can transition to a monetary system that isn't based on debt and doesn't require constant continuing growth to avoid imploding.

Well never noticed it. Companies still need skilled people so 0 issue with getting job. My parents still rented out their apartments just fine. All my friends were still employed, not a single one lost their job.

What kind of jobs was lost exactly? If you’re a software dev for a company, they’re not suddenly going to get rid of you, they’re still selling their software.

Not saying it didn’t affect others, I just did not feel it at all, nor the people around me.

I will say that my biggest fear is hyper inflation and outright collapse of the pounds or dollars.

I run a few internet companies and a marketing agency. No doubt the marketing agency will be affected if companies don’t have the marketing budget. I also run a few aggregator lead gen sites and if those clients scale back their spending, I’d take a bit but won’t go under (mainly cos business expenses are minimal).

Also, the idea of a cbdc is terrifiying. One gov to control all your finances. We already saw what happened with the truckers in Canada and that wasn’t even centralised banking. There wouldn’t be anywhere in the world you could run to. They freeze your account and you’re done.

Small US pilot programs started in late spring 2021:

Link:

https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...ts-2021-05-03/

White House got the ball rolling back in March. I made a big thread about it around then.

Link:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...igital-assets/

^^^
Most of the assignments are due in October/November this year.

The current press is that the USDC is set to roll out May 2023.




^^^
ETA: I suspect this is why they are cracking down on allowing banks to release paper money to the public.

This. All about timing. If the OP of the 2008 didn’t affect me was a kid, and parents well established, then yeah, probably not affected.

But ppl who graduated in 2009 had the course of their careers changed. No jobs. A lost generation in finance. Lots of ppl lost their jobs. Some ppl forced into early retirement. It fukked a lot of ppl who were in vulnerable positions.

Increased unemployment. Period.

Credit Suisse will not go bust this week. I'll take a life ban if it does. Too much capital, too much government support, too much derisking in recent times.

If it does not go bust, one of the paniccels ITT step up and and take a ban.

SRS

Until that fails too?

financial doomers have been talking about this **** on the misc forever. Every year its the same. no doubt the same doomers were saying we're all ****ed as covid started. probably the same morons talking about peak oil crisis 10 years ago.

We WERE doomed when Covid started. This is it. It was just temporarily delayed by giant government borrowing, insane money printing and zero % interest rates. But the bill was always going to have to be paid at some point.

well no one knows....what im doing now is.... using 25% of my bank account to buy physical gold another 25% real estate "planning to get this soon https://apxnproperty.com/product/2-31-acres-klamath-county-oregon-r471821/"

and im leaving 50% around