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Forum » The stock market plunge is here
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Thread: The stock market plunge is here

post 1690443383 09-21-2023, 03:03 PM
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#31
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Got 250 sitting on the sidelines,

MO has over a 9% dividend , tempting
Dallas Cowboys

Lifted for 30 years

Ass > tits
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post 1690443463 09-21-2023, 03:04 PM
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#32
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Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
I know.
There’s no reason to believe he’d get fired if Republicans win
post 1690444303 09-21-2023, 03:21 PM
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#33
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Y'all remember Yellen floating the idea of Treasury buying back low yield bonds from banks? 22% of US banks are being backstopped by the Fed, per the FDIC thousands of banks are a risk of default if forced to recognize their losses.

Treasury Buyback Plan Will Boost Market Resilience, US Debt Official Says
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.

“Buybacks can play an important role in helping to make the Treasury market more liquid and resilient,” Frost said Thursday in a prepared speech during a forum on the Treasury market in New York. Our goal is to “ensure that the Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid market in the world.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...witter-markets


Perhaps related to the BIS report re: off book loans? I've seen an estimate of derivatives being $3.5 Quadrillion now.

Just saw this...US debt jumped another $52B. That is over a half trillion in one day.




Busy, busy, busy...

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post 1690462453 09-21-2023, 09:17 PM
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#34
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Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
If you believe the discounted cash flow model, the fair market value for SPY is about $330.

If you think of it in terms of repayment period, buying SPY as a 26x multiple means you expect to wait 26 years for SPY's profits to double your money. 30 year T-Bills guarantee that they will double your money in 22 years, so stocks should be trading at a discount relative to that.

There's a couple different ways to dice it, but stocks are 20% to 30% overvalued today. That percentage is basically measuring the price of pivot hopium, or the level of fear about hyperinflation. Depends how you want to look at it.

I am pretty much out of the market and am sitting on a mix of money market funds and 30 year Treasurys. A couple semi stocks too, that I still believe in.
TSLA should be $450 TODAY if you simply check the peg ratio, just look how many cars will they sell etc. it’s not complicated. Amazon is an easy double from here. And so on. You are too pessimistic. Totally out of market is not a good position.
post 1690462663 09-21-2023, 09:24 PM
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#35
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
TSLA should be $450 TODAY if you simply check the peg ratio, just look how many cars will they sell etc. it’s not complicated. Amazon is an easy double from here. And so on. You are too pessimistic. Totally out of market is not a good position.
Have you seen the amount of regulation coming toward Amazon?
post 1690463033 09-21-2023, 09:31 PM
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#36
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Have you seen the amount of regulation coming toward Amazon?



Every erection cycle government comes for big tech and says “we gonna close you down, and fine you 17 trillion guazillion dollars!”

Translation:

“Give us donations!”

This is a standard shakedown. Absolutely nothing will ever change. The big tech will pay off these criminals in government, and continue to flourish. This already happened about 50 times in my lifetime alone. There is NO regulation coming. There is MONEY coming from Amazon to politicians. As always.
post 1690463233 09-21-2023, 09:37 PM
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#37
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Not long ago, Miscer trill JSpoons talking about how great everything is, how it's all booming.

Just the other day it seems Biden was boasting about how his recovery act fixed the economy and how he ended inflation. If you go on any government site all they talk about is how great everything is, and how great Biden is doing. Reality is that people are suffering more than ever. The middle class is getting it dry. Biden increased the amounts for rental assistance and food stamps, but most working people haven't gotten anything. Sorry, but hearing good people I know who are talking about thinking about living in their cars because they just can't afford it anymore.
post 1690463263 09-21-2023, 09:38 PM
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#38
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩



Every erection cycle government comes for big tech and says “we gonna close you down, and fine you 17 trillion guazillion dollars!”

Translation:

“Give us donations!”

This is a standard shakedown. Absolutely nothing will ever change. The big tech will pay off these criminals in government, and continue to flourish. This already happened about 50 times in my lifetime alone. There is NO regulation coming. There is MONEY coming from Amazon to politicians. As always.
Amazon is a product of a zero interest rate environment. To think they are going to flourish in a high interest rate environment where all of their input costs are going up substantially is fairly naive.
post 1690463463 09-21-2023, 09:42 PM
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#39
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Strongest economy ever, Jack. 13 gorillion jobs created, Jack.
Not in the AM
post 1690463543 09-21-2023, 09:45 PM
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#40
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Amazon is a product of a zero interest rate environment. To think they are going to flourish in a high interest rate environment where all of their input costs are going up substantially is fairly naive.
Yeap, I remember we all made fun of my co-worker decades ago when he was buying stock by telephone of this online book store, He told us it would be big, and he said they starting to sell shoes! We laughed so hard. He was already a self made millionaire in the stock market by then. And he was buying Amazon stock at $12. Thousands of shares. Just like you we had plenty of reason why it would fail. We actually had many more reasons.
post 1690463553 09-21-2023, 09:45 PM
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#41
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Originally Posted By Jasonw1178⏩
Not long ago, Miscer trill JSpoons talking about how great everything is, how it's all booming.

Just the other day it seems Biden was boasting about how his recovery act fixed the economy and how he ended inflation. If you go on any government site all they talk about is how great everything is, and how great Biden is doing. Reality is that people are suffering more than ever. The middle class is getting it dry. Biden increased the amounts for rental assistance and food stamps, but most working people haven't gotten anything. Sorry, but hearing good people I know who are talking about thinking about living in their cars because they just can't afford it anymore.
Look, fat, here's the deal...

Unemployment probably needs to be north of 5% for a year or two in order to legit get the inflation numbers down to between 2 -3%.

How much fukking does it take in order to achieve that?

No lube allowed.
post 1690484443 09-22-2023, 09:59 AM
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#42
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
TSLA should be $450 TODAY if you simply check the peg ratio, just look how many cars will they sell etc. it’s not complicated. Amazon is an easy double from here. And so on. You are too pessimistic. Totally out of market is not a good position.
It's that G that's problematic. P is a hard number, E is a hard number, but G is Elon hopium.

If you use the DCF formula on TSLA, they are 70% overvalued right now. I'm guessing you're carrying some bags from the 2020 bull run.
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