I know.

If you believe the discounted cash flow model, the fair market value for SPY is about $330.

If you think of it in terms of repayment period, buying SPY as a 26x multiple means you expect to wait 26 years for SPY's profits to double your money. 30 year T-Bills guarantee that they will double your money in 22 years, so stocks should be trading at a discount relative to that.

There's a couple different ways to dice it, but stocks are 20% to 30% overvalued today. That percentage is basically measuring the price of pivot hopium, or the level of fear about hyperinflation. Depends how you want to look at it.

I am pretty much out of the market and am sitting on a mix of money market funds and 30 year Treasurys. A couple semi stocks too, that I still believe in.

TSLA should be $450 TODAY if you simply check the peg ratio, just look how many cars will they sell etc. it’s not complicated. Amazon is an easy double from here. And so on. You are too pessimistic. Totally out of market is not a good position.

Have you seen the amount of regulation coming toward Amazon?

Every erection cycle government comes for big tech and says “we gonna close you down, and fine you 17 trillion guazillion dollars!”

Translation:

“Give us donations!”

This is a standard shakedown. Absolutely nothing will ever change. The big tech will pay off these criminals in government, and continue to flourish. This already happened about 50 times in my lifetime alone. There is NO regulation coming. There is MONEY coming from Amazon to politicians. As always.

Amazon is a product of a zero interest rate environment. To think they are going to flourish in a high interest rate environment where all of their input costs are going up substantially is fairly naive.

Not long ago, Miscer trill JSpoons talking about how great everything is, how it's all booming.

Just the other day it seems Biden was boasting about how his recovery act fixed the economy and how he ended inflation. If you go on any government site all they talk about is how great everything is, and how great Biden is doing. Reality is that people are suffering more than ever. The middle class is getting it dry. Biden increased the amounts for rental assistance and food stamps, but most working people haven't gotten anything. Sorry, but hearing good people I know who are talking about thinking about living in their cars because they just can't afford it anymore.

TSLA should be $450 TODAY if you simply check the peg ratio, just look how many cars will they sell etc. it’s not complicated. Amazon is an easy double from here. And so on. You are too pessimistic. Totally out of market is not a good position.