Fuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkkkkkkkk. Didn't even think of that. It was weird, but even before this Rodgers thing became a thing, I was talking about to some friends if the 49ers should make a move for Rodgers. But I wasn't clear about his contract situation. I just thought his future with GB seemed kind of murky.

I mean they already got jordan love I don't see what they would want to do with lance lol. If we were gonna draft for GB and work that as a trade angle we wouldn't have drafted a QB

I see. Gotta be honest, other than the 49ers draft picks, I haven't been paying attention to this draft or any other teams.

The Aaron thing was very spur of the moment the day of the draft pretty much I don't think anyone really knows what's going on there lol

Lynch said he called GB and pretty much got the cold shoulder right away. Shanny and Lynch seemed ok with it, they are pretty happy they pulled a fast one on the media/fans by getting Lance.

Packers are dead set on not trading him at the moment. Nothing you can do about it.

I do think another reason the 49ers traded up to #3 was that they had talked about Deshaun Watson and the #3 pick for the Texans, in this QB heavy class it would’ve been more appealing than getting #12 this year and probably 2 late first rounders (we would’ve been going deep into the playoffs every year with Deshaun).

So the early trade up wasn’t just about the rookie QB’s but also easier to start trade talks with Houston or Green Bay when you’re dangling #3 where they could have Fields or Lance.

Unfortunately, Watson seems like an idiot.

I’m hyped for Sermon though!

Lance has huge accuracy issues. There's no way he starts over Jimmy this year. Good thing is he makes the right reads already, multiple reads.

Saw a video with Kurt Warner that made it seem like Trey can fix his accuracy issues. He was showing how sometimes his eyes get ahead of his feet. Trey is smart enough and a hard enough worker to take care of those things.

I hope so, his accuracy is actually pretty bad in some of the film

Has anyone else here watched a lot of film analysis of Lance? I just did a deep dive on YouTube and while he's good at making reads, his accuracy is NOT good. It's definitely not what you would expect from a #3 overall that they gave up the farm for. I wonder if they caved to the social pressure with this pick….I sure hope not. Jones is wayyyyyyyyyyy more accurate.

They don't give a **** about social pressure which is why everyone was in fear of them taking Mac Jones in the first place.

There was a reason I preferred Justin Fields over Lance, his accuracy and his play vs better competition.

However clearly Shanahan saw enough to make him the pick so I trust him. No questioning the tools Lance has and by all accounts everyone who interviewed him came away highly impressed. Him picking up a pro offense at 19 is pretty damn impressive.

Lance's accuracy deep does concern me a bit myself but he's definitely more accurate than Josh Allen was and look how that turned out. It's not something I prefer to gamble with because more times than not accuracy issues don't get fixed but people were claiming Lance spent the year off working on his mechanics and tightening things up so hopefully it won't be an issue.

Having better WRs would also help but odds are there will be growing pains adjusting to the speed/talent of the NFL.

1. Allen is an outlier. Accuracy is one of the most difficult things to improve on from college to the pros.
2. QB is far and away the least likely position to succeed. Over the last 25 years, 5% of QB's became all pros. The next worst % is TE at 14%.
3. The top QB is rarely the best choice. From 12-20, the top QB only became the best QB (by career AV) 2 times (Winston/Murray)
4. Kyle gets credit as a qb guru but I don't think that's true. He is an elite offensive mind who maximizes his QB's talent but I don't think he is great at developing QB's. He tends to maximize their talent and then they fall off without him.

I don't see how anyone can like this move. It's is Kyle betting that he's a lot smarter than everyone else. As far as people making absurd moves, I have a lot more faith in Kyle than virtually any other coach but based on all information we have the 49ers screwed this up very badly. If draft experts were frauds, they would have crucified this pick but they don't want to be on record betting against any elite football mind.

By all accounts, Lance is super smart and a great prospect that can be amazing at the next level but even if he is everything we expect it still doesn't justify moving to 3 with no plans.

I agree that it's doubtful the 49ers FO made their decision based on a lot of the fans being a bunch of liberal ****s. Bosa is a MAGA guy and they still too him.

Bosa brothers are the American dream

Yessir.

Never forget, the kid is 20. How many polished products have you seen at QB at 20 years old? Josh Allen finally got accurate at 24.

Trey already has improved his mechanics a lot already from what I can tell. His throwing motion in his pro day looked so much cleaner than what it used to look like. I’m sure when they sent Trey to work with John Beck he made some notable changes fairly quickly and Beck reported that back to the 49ers. If you know a guy has all the physical tools and mental capabilities and you find out he can quickly improve his mechanics with the right coaching it’s a no-brainer pick.

Who said they didn't have plans? The dumbasses who were pushing the "It's definitely Mac Jones" stories and now look like morons when he went at #15?

1. Allen may be an outlier but Lance's accuracy issues are not awful. He's not as accurate as Jones or Fields but clearly lots of people saw it being a non issue.
2. Yes but can you give me a situation that a QB drafted in the top 5 has seen which is better than what he's walking into here? Not just with the roster but with Shanahan?
3. Well good thing we didn't get the top QB lol. But that also goes in with the teams picking those top QBs. Typically they're going to **** teams with new coaches. Situations matter. Ours is terrific. There's no guarantee Lance becomes a great QB but he probably couldn't have asked for a better spot to go to in order to grow. We are clearly not going to ask him to air the ball out 30+ times a game and will groom him similar to what Seattle did with Seattle. Pound the ball and play strong D.
4. Good thing the two are linked now. Which QB has Kyle had close to the talent of Lance that he got to work with from the start? CJ Beathard didn't turn into a pro bowler and we're going to hold it against him?

Go look at clips from Kyle at the QB Collective. The dude is a terrific coach. The question is can the QB he's working with listening and doing his part? It sounds like Lance picks things up quickly and is very smart and hard working. I'd be surprised if he didn't take to Kyle's coaching well.

I don't understand your thought process at all. I wasn't a huge fan of Trey Lance just because of my concerns with his inexperience and his jump in competition but he was getting a ton of love from many people long before the 49ers actually drafted him.

Kyle Shanahan has never went all in on a QB like this. The best guy he's worked with was Matt Ryan who already had 100 starts under his belt before Kyle got there. You're making a lot of negative assumptions with nothing behind it. You didn't like the pick so everyone else must hate it too.

I find it funny that people were rationalizing taking Mac Jones at #3 overall and it being fine cuz he's a perfect fit for Kyle's offense…despite those same people ranking him as the 5th QB and in many cases outside of the top 20 prospects. Yet when Kyle takes Trey Lance who clearly has WAY better tools than Jones it's a move nobody should like?

And if he's everything we expect then nobody will give a flying fuk what the team gave up to get him. You pay for QBs. If Lance turns into a great QB nobody will care about the picks given up.

Yeah, I don't understand your point at all either. For the record, I had it Fields > Lance > Mac but the bigger issue was the trade to #3 rather than who we drafted. Here is why this move was stupid.

- The 49ers have a championship-caliber roster in a league where championship windows close quickly. For a team in win-now mode, it does not make sense to invest in a rookie QB who we don't think will be better than Jimmy G next season. We are giving up a high-potential prospect on a rookie contract for the next three years for someone who will likely be a backup for at least this upcoming season. In the short term, this makes the team worse even if we absolutely nail the Lance pick. This is the reason that Lance is going into one of the best situations a rookie QB has ever had. The teams in this position realize that it's stupid to go all-in on the future when the team is good enough to win a championship today. There are professional pundits who have such low IQ they think "Jimmy G is overrated because he could get injured" and see Lance as top-tier insurance then you could have picked up a QB like Bridgewater who again will provide more championship equity today for a fraction of the cost.

- The entire way teams win is by taking calculated risks. The most important thing is the opportunity cost. When you spend a lot more, they need to provide a much higher return to justify the expense. This means that Jones could be a much better pick for the Patriots even if Trey Lance ends up being the superior player. It matters a lot how much we gave up even if he does end up being great because his greatness needs to mask any holes on the roster that could have been filled with the capital we gave up to acquire him.

- I don't know why you think I'm making up these assumptions with nothing behind them. The concepts I'm using are staples of strategic theory and my pessimism is because the data doesn't suggest this has a history of success. There are a lot of red flags while may not be a big issue in a vacuum they are much more concerning when you add them all up and factor in the insane amount of leverage. I can break down your arguments to points 1-4 but your counter is essentially "history never had Kyle as the HC" which I don't think is very compelling.

That's how I had it as well but I always said one thing I had no idea about is how each guy is behind the scenes. All we could do is speculate. There was certainly enough info out there about Fields being highly intelligent that I figured he was at least on par with Lance in terms of mental aspect of the game but seems like Kyle had other intel and seeing as Justin fell all the way to 11 seems like it was a thought shared by other teams.

There are plenty of people who think Lance is one of the more pro ready QBs in this class. I'm pretty sure Kyle claimed they thought he was more pro ready than Jones(whether that's a fib or not is another story)

Regardless we are in a win now mode however we also have a nice young nucleus of talent to build around and maintain a winning roster for the long haul. This year is one thing with a lot of guys coming back on one year deals. Next year it's a whole other ball game. Best way to keep your roster together is having your QB get paid very little. You do that in two ways - have a ****ty QB who isn't worth a lot or drafting a rookie.

I mean as far as examples the Chiefs from a few years ago don't get any better. HC who is a brilliant playcaller/designer. Playoff caliber roster well in hand with a QB who is limited but can win you games. They make a big move up for Mahomes and I don't think they regret that decision.

End of the day if Lance turns into a franchise QB nobody cares how much you gave up, especially if the team is able to win a lot of games in the next two years so the 1st rounders we gave away isn't high. And even in that situation it may not be franchise killer. I actually had this conversation with someone else yesterday. 49ers franchise could be VERY different if not for an awful OJ Simpson trade where we ended up giving away what turned into the #1 overall pick in 1979(among other picks) I'm sure fans were furious at the time but reality is if the 49ers had that pick Bill Walsh likely takes Phil Simms #1 overall and doesn't draft Joe Montana in the 3rd round that year. Who knows what happens then.



Opportunity cost is understandable. The issue is talking about it now is silly. 49ers made the big move up because they saw a guy they clearly liked and knew they couldn't get him at 12 and likely couldn't do their proper due diligence in scouting these QBs without owning the 3rd pick and more or less knowing they were getting at least one of the top 3. There's a reason we didn't send anyone of note to Lance's pro day because it was before the trade up.

What Mac Jones does in NE has nothing to do with Lance. Kyle sees a guy who can not only open up the passing game in a way we haven't had with Jimmy but also improve the running game even more so with his presence. That's something Mac couldn't do here.

So if you're going to make the switch from Jimmy and get yourself a QB on a rookie deal then you better try to get the best one that you can. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens with these 5 QBs but despite the big trade compensation I much prefer knowing Shanahan got one of the guys he really liked vs getting the leftovers.

Someone posted this article which is pretty nice showing of why Lance is a great fit here. It was actually put together before we made the trade up.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2...ampaign=affref



There are no guarantees in life and certainly not in the NFL draft. Lance could very well be a bust or just mediocre and then we look back at this trade with disgust.

However when you have a very talented HC/playcaller, a roster that's in pretty good shape and you add a QB prospect who by all accounts has elite potential and terrific work ethic/mental makeup…i'd say your odds of success as higher than otherwise.

Is it a risk? Absolutely. Did we give up a lot? Yup.

But once again will anyone care what was given up if Lance turns into a stud QB and we win a ton of games with him? No.

That's how the NFL works. If you actually get a great player it wont' matter, especially at QB. I mean you want to talk opportunity costs and bad trade…going back to that OJ Simpson trade

49ers traded their second- and third-round picks in 1978, first- and fourth-round picks in 1979, and a 1980 second-round to acquire Simpson

That was for OJ Simpson who was coming off a 557 yard season with 0 TDs and who only played here for 2 years and barely broke 1k rushing yards combined with 6 total TDs in those 2 years. Now that's an awful trade.

I just typed up a long-ass response and it said I was denied. =/ The basic gist of it is

1) This was stupid from a long-term strategic standpoint.
2) It was stupid from a draft standpoint
3) It is worse w/ all-pro QB's potentially being available

It could work out and be a genius move but this is essentially the same thing as going all-in on a flush draw. It will hit a decent amount of times but more often than not it will miss and you'll end up crippling your stack for no real reason.

Bad analogy.

Cards are cards, it's all chance.

49ers have a very talented team, good coaching staff. They are in a good position to develop a young talented QB than most. You're comparing other teams making big trade ups like this but where you go matters a LOT.

Lance isn't guaranteed anything and neither is Trevor Lawrence.

But fact is the way rookie QB salaries are gives teams a 5 year window where they can build a great team around him. Back in the old days where top 5 rookies would automatically get big guaranteed contracts that paid them like top 5 at that position a move like this wasn't possible.


This is definitely a long term play but also short term. You can keep your talent together and develop a young and promising QB who by the time he hits his 2nd contract can be good enough to build up the whole roster.

The fact that the 49ers were able to bring back almost all of their key free agents or replace the ones they lost is why they were able to make a move like this.

We'll see how it goes.

I still want Aaron Rodgers.

It's not gonna happen. May as well let it go.

Sounds like Lions week 1 and Philly week 2. Home opener vs Green Bay. Wonder if Aaron Rodgers will be on the field for GB.

Week 1 vs Goff
Week 2 vs Hurts
Week 3 vs Love

3-0

Don't think our schedule is too bad on paper, only thing I don't like about it is the early bye week.

Only things I hate are the early bye week and the Thursday night game all the way at Tennessee but it is what it is. TNF away games suck as it is and I guess I’d rather have a **** schedule game vs an AFC team than a division or NFC team.

Just have to stay healthy and we should make a good run.

Last time we had an early bye we did ok. Hope we do it again but finish off with a W.

The entire premise of cards is risk analysis…

My entire argument that historically this move fails more often than it succeeds and the risk isn't worth the reward. You keep referencing teams of this caliber don't do this. That is my point. Teams don't do this because it's a stupid thing for teams with championship aspirations to do because it crushes your championship aspirations.

This is pretty much completely wrong. The team is in no way, shape, or form better in the short term unless Lance becomes a probowl/all-pro QB in year 2-3.


The fact the 49ers drafted a first-team all pro in 3 consecutive drafts and drafted Nick Bosa in the draft after that is why they're in this position. It won't happen again.

Give me some examples of a team this well off taking a guy so high and keep it to the recent CBA changes where top 5 picks weren't automatically making top 5 money without playing a down in the NFL considering that totally changed the game.

Teams since that change was made who have won SBs

Giants - Eli Manning
Ravens - Flacco, rookie contract
Seahawks - Wilson, rookie contract
Pats - Brady
Broncos - Manning
Pats - Brady
Eagles - Foles(Wentz rookie contract)
Pats - Brady
Chiefs - Mahomes, rookie contract
Bucs - Brady

So since then 4 teams have won it with a QB who either played in the SB or had a major impact in them getting there on a rookie contract. Only Flacco was drafted before the new CBA in that example but he was a low first round pick so his contract still wasn't huge.

Moral of the story is…when you have a rookie QB you have a lot more cap space to field good teams around them.

So if you're saying this move fails more than it succeeds…you need data to back that up. Because I'm telling you we don't have many(if any) examples of this happening.

Team which was just in the SB 2 years prior, kept most of that same roster together but got decimated by injuries to get a high enough pick to make the jump up to top 3 to take a young QB, while also still having the QB they went to the SB with.

If you're going to reference the Goff/Wentz moves make sure to remember where those teams were before they made those moves.

This in no way crushes our SB aspirations. In what way does it do that? You saw what happens to this team when Garoppolo is injured right? Unless you seriously think Lance isn't an upgrade over Mullens/Beathard how do you see his selection as hurting the team?

Lance's presence allows Kyle to completely open up his offense to ways which defenses simply didn't have to worry about with any of the QBs he's put out with the 49ers. Run offense becomes way harder to stop when you have to legit account for the QB keeping the ball. Opposing secondary cannot just crowd the middle short/intermediate routes with Lance's arm.

Did the Packers SB aspirations get crushed because they drafted a 3rd string QB and a backup RB after reaching the NFC Championship game?


See my post above. Lance's presence on the field alone creates issues for defenses they didn't have playing against our offense under Kyle. Now obviously if Lance sucks his arm or his running ability won't save him but clearly that's not what we expect from him. Was Jimmy a probowl/all-pro QB? So why is the barometer for improvement only if Lance is that? If he gives us better QB play or even better ability to run Kyle's full offense and force defenses to defend the whole field in the passing game and create more confusion when we run the ball(which we're going to do a lot)

You're also somehow ignoring what the team did in free agency to improve. Bringing in Mack and drafting Banks shows a clear acceptance by the coaches/front office that our pass pro wasn't good enough. We're not Cowboys OL level from a few years ago but our OL SHOULD be much improved. McGlinchey just needs to do his part and ensure he's not a big softball at RT but having Mack calling out protection at C will improve everyone and getting consistency at RG will also help McGlinchey.

You also forget the rookie QB salary part. Jimmy and his contract are gone next year. Warner gets his new deal and we're in a much better position to keep Bosa, Deebo, Aiyuk and anyone else waiting to get paid. Something you can't do when you're paying your starting QB 20+ mil.

Also moving forward if Lance is the guy, you can basically structure his contract and keep moving money around so you can work around the cap. Check what the Chiefs did this year. Can't do that with Jimmy and it's clear why they didn't rework his contract to free up cap space.


You have the Powerball numbers while you're in the future?

Obviously you want to have all your picks to try to hit on more players but fact is our best player on offense was a 5th round pick. One of our best players on defense was a 3rd round pick.

I can just as easily flip this on you and say what if we gave up picks which could've turned into Rueben Foster or Josh Garnett?

The draft isn't a guarantee. Kyle realized we weren't going where he wants us to go with Jimmy at QB for whatever reason. He thought enough of Lance to make the big move to go get him. Look at the production he was getting with Matt Schaub, Jimmy G, Brian Hoyer, Beathard, Mullens. Look at the production he got out of Matt Ryan. This is the first time he's going to get HIS guy. And thank god it wasn't a Mac Jones type. It shows Kyle isn't just hard up for statue QBs with ok arms.

He's going for the home run and QBs cost big compensation. There aren't so many holes on this roster that they would've been so much better off keeping those picks and going BPA.

If Lance hits, it's a no brainer and nobody cares what was given up. If he's a bust then we're looking at a new coaching staff/front office but I'd still respect them for trying to go for the home run vs a bunt single.

Insiders, what happened with Lee