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Forum » Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels
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Thread: Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels

post 1659574333 04-13-2022, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted By AWSbruh⏩
Sell my house and buy another house with a 5 percent interest rate or pay more for rent, no thanks. There isn’t going to be a crash Lmao
Be right back in 1 year
post 1659574693 04-13-2022, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
How do you figure? Data shows that the average home buyer has an above median household income. Interest rates last year were sub 3%. They made an average down payment of 6% and had the median home purchase price in 2021 was $346,900. If anything that shows that people made good decisions DTI wise as a 30 year mortgage of 326,086 (median - 6%) is $1,375 which is only $85 more than the average rent payment for a 2BR apartment last year. If they are making even the median household income you stated of $80,000 that was a good financial decision.

You've stated that people and yet have provided absolutely zero data to back that up. None at all.

Edit - FWIW I don't really have a dog in this fight, I bought a house that needed a ton of rehab so was already valued at about 70% to a comparable in the area, and I have since mostly completed rehab and the area has appreciated ~30% so I'll never be underwater.
Average first time home buyer makes $72k a year

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/25/here...yer-makes.html

once again, that's even worse than what I outlined. Yes, they financed at 2.8% in the past and now its nearly 6%, a reduction of 28% in buying power. That's the margin being worked against.
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post 1659574783 04-13-2022, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
You're conflating a couple of points regarding home buyers.

First off, a third of the market are first time home buyers. They do not have a lot of money saved up, normally about 5%. First time homebuyers are age 30-40 generally, and make the amount I stated in household. Of course some buyers have more money from their first house....but its not the first time home buyers.

I gave a BEST case exampleoutlining how even someone with no debt could not finance at existing interest rates, which is the premise of my argument. Its not a leap to assume borrowers have been high DTI this whole time, since you can borrow 50+% dti per guidelines right now. I know, I've personally qualified multiple times.
Not really.

You are using "median" for income and for home price. If you want to focus on first time buyers which you assert have less savings then the median home price is sort of a squishy target.

Wouldn't your theoretical first time buyer be focused on purchasing a starter home which should be below the median home price? It will depend on market [duh], but seems like you should discount the median by at least 20% to 25% to guesstimate a home purchase price for your first time buyer.

If first time buyers are 1/3rd of the market then they might even account for the bottom third of home prices.

new home $400K median > $300K first time buyer

existing home $300K median > $225 first time buyer

Or something like that.
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post 1659574793 04-13-2022, 10:08 AM
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Inflation + Declining Economy + interest rate rises + Black Swan Event + 3% deposits + noincome verfiifcation loans for blacks and hispanics + dodgy car financing +economic crash = housing crash.

If you think otherwise, you are a genuine r*tard. forget all the other data it's as simple as that, and since March, House prices have collapsed since March, IF you were to put your home on the market now you may not get post 2020 prices anymore, the market can turn that fast. No buyers out there anymore.
post 1659579213 04-13-2022, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
Inflation + Declining Economy + interest rate rises + Black Swan Event + 3% deposits + noincome verfiifcation loans for blacks and hispanics + dodgy car financing +economic crash = housing crash.

If you think otherwise, you are a genuine r*tard. forget all the other data it's as simple as that, and since March, House prices have collapsed since March, IF you were to put your home on the market now you may not get post 2020 prices anymore, the market can turn that fast. No buyers out there anymore.
Said no one who is actually versed in the current housing market

Houses still selling for way over asking
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post 1659579403 04-13-2022, 11:34 AM
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Cool looks like I'll be able to buy that beach vacation home with cash soon and air bnb it when I'm not there.
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post 1659579683 04-13-2022, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted By 1slo5oh⏩
Definitely NOT the case in Texas as of right now... However... after seeing my County appraisal go up $92 fkng thousand dollars from last year I could certainly see this deterring people but my fear is this BS has set the bar and is here to stay. Its almost as if the government is doing anything it can to insure people never become land / home owners *gasp*
Thank god my homestead caps it at 10% annual increase, would have gone up almost 100%

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post 1659580063 04-13-2022, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
Thank god my homestead caps it at 10% annual increase, would have gone up almost 100%

That's not a bubble. Its just the demand increase from a .4% population change in the US. (lowest on record btw). edit: sorry, wrong stat. Its .1%, our population is flatlining....
Originally Posted By FlexLex⏩
Said no one who is actually versed in the current housing market

Houses still selling for way over asking
thats because you sell entry level homes lmao

We have a flatlining population growth, record high household debt, reduced household income, record inflation but the housing market isn't in a bubble

The average mortgage in the 90s adjusted for inflation is what millenials owe on student loans alone.
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post 1659580243 04-13-2022, 11:50 AM
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It's gong to level out but interest rates will rise. Eventually it's going to find a medium. It's been way lopsided for too long. I think most people who wanted to sell have sold. People who want to buy are for the most part bought. Of course there are always people buying and selling. I've seen a lot of "PRICE CUT" going on. People asking way high have already come down.

What's going to screw a lot of people down the road will be that if they do get into financial trouble they won't be able to refit their home to get a lower rate or get money out. Although usually a bad move anyways it might sve some people.
post 1659580353 04-13-2022, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted By Jasonw1178⏩
It's gong to level out but interest rates will rise. Eventually it's going to find a medium. It's been way lopsided for too long. I think most people who wanted to sell have sold. People who want to buy are for the most part bought. Of course there are always people buying and selling. I've seen a lot of "PRICE CUT" going on. People asking way high have already come down.

What's going to screw a lot of people down the road will be that if they do get into financial trouble they won't be able to refit their home to get a lower rate or get money out. Although usually a bad move anyways it might sve some people.
What's leveling out? Median household price was 415k in dec. Its going under 400k now.

Its been going down about 1% every month since the FED's announcement.

QE didn't even stop till this month. Without the fed buying most residential loans, the market is going to implode.

It is absolutely, ABSOLUTELY amazing to me that so far we've established:

-Lowering purchase power doesn't change demand

-Lowering purchase power doesn't change prices

-People are going to keep buying houses because people bought other houses, last year.

No, really. I'm being told that reducing purchasing power by 28% will not do anything to this market. All this in spite of flatlining population growth, record high household debt, reduced household income, record inflation...

Let me put this into perspective. Reverting back to "just" 2018 prices is a 25% decrease. That's entirely reasonable and feasible, a good marker of natural and sustainable demand.

There's not a single positive indicator for this market.
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post 1659580793 04-13-2022, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted By 1slo5oh⏩
Definitely NOT the case in Texas as of right now... However... after seeing my County appraisal go up $92 fkng thousand dollars from last year I could certainly see this deterring people but my fear is this BS has set the bar and is here to stay. Its almost as if the government is doing anything it can to insure people never become land / home owners *gasp*
I'd say most people don't understand the valuation process when they buy. Most people don't even know what property tax is or how it works or what it's used for.

I'd imagine first time home buyers are taking out a loan on the max they can afford, probably more than that because of inflated prices, then big tax surprise in the next few years.
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post 1659580883 04-13-2022, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I'd say most people don't understand the valuation process when they buy. Most people don't even know what property tax is or how it works or what it's used for.

I'd imagine first time home buyers are taking out a loan on the max they can afford, probably more than that because of inflated prices, then big tax surprise in the next few years.
astute loan officers should be including taxes based off appraisal, not historical. Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, its a part of closing costs. Seems illegal to do otherwise. It would directly affect dti and easily provable since the amount financed is what taxation is based off of. Should be able to automate it, even.
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post 1659581183 04-13-2022, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted By JUSA⏩
In Texas... demand is through the roof. I am in the process of moving, I want some acreage and land to work and out of a HOA and suburbia. Made a 25K over offer on Sunday, their realtor didn't even bother getting back to us to negotiate, just went with some other offer which was probably both cash and higher. Whatever it was, it blew 25K over their asking price out of the water.

Found one smaller house, little less land than I want but nice enough. I'll need to sink 50k into it by the time I'm done to get it up to our standards. Inspector came back with all kinds of chit to work on (AC will need replacement, plumbing, electrical work, need to add bedroom/bath b/c it's a tad small, etc).

Put my house on the market today. Listing is almost double what I paid for it 11 years ago. Already have people lined up to see it today, other comp houses in this area sold well above even our asking price... hoping we sell over too. Just fuking nuts.
Wife is a realtor. She has a client who went 85k over asking price and waived everything possible, she even offered a percentage off of her commission and they were beat out by a cash offer 95k over.
It’s insane man.
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post 1659581603 04-13-2022, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
astute loan officers should be including taxes based off appraisal, not historical. Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, its a part of closing costs. Seems illegal to do otherwise. It would directly affect dti and easily provable since the amount financed is what taxation is based off of. Should be able to automate it, even.
I don't think mine did. I had an idea of my payment when I signed the loan. Say a house has a valuation of $250k, new buyer pays $500k, their tax bill is paid on a valuation of $200k, because valuations, here anyway, lag the appraised value or is never appraised. So taxes on $200k will quickly become tax on $500k, but not initially. At least that's how it worked for every home I've bought. Could be a lot different depending on the state, I'm not sure. I just know taxes always go way up after purchase here.
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post 1659581813 04-13-2022, 12:16 PM
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me buy house house go up 700k me make money
post 1659582023 04-13-2022, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I'd say most people don't understand the valuation process when they buy. Most people don't even know what property tax is or how it works or what it's used for.

I'd imagine first time home buyers are taking out a loan on the max they can afford, probably more than that because of inflated prices, then big tax surprise in the next few years.
all these idiots on the local Nextdoor app are blaming politicians for theirr tax increases

Meanwhile, our tax rates have gotten cheaper and cheaper over the years
Guess they don’t understand the demand for Texas homes in what’s driving their “taxes” up
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post 1659582123 04-13-2022, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
all these idiots on the local Nextdoor app are blaming politicians for theirr tax increases

Meanwhile, our tax rates have gotten cheaper and cheaper over the years
Guess they don’t understand the demand for Texas homes in what’s driving their “taxes” up
surely the extra taxes will lead to better educations for our children and better roads


SURELY
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post 1659582283 04-13-2022, 12:23 PM
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Not in my area

Housing prices have kept rising the entire time

Houses are now a quarter mil higher here than two years ago
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post 1659582573 04-13-2022, 12:28 PM
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Thread is irrelevant. National is not the same as local market. Interest rates are not the driver in my market.
post 1659583453 04-13-2022, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
Thread is irrelevant. National is not the same as local market. Interest rates are not the driver in my market.
Great

on another note

Number of single family homes has outpaced population growth for the last 20 years

there is not a lack of supply, there is a lack of sellers.
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post 1659590183 04-13-2022, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Great

on another note

Number of single family homes has outpaced population growth for the last 20 years

there is not a lack of supply, there is a lack of sellers.
Listings have have gone from 1.55 million units in July 2016 to 376k units in Feb 2022-a 75% drop. Seems kind of kind of drastic, especially considering the decline has been steep and steady with COVID being almost completely unrelated. New builds being affected by Covid and inflation can't account for all that drop. I can't go back further than 2016 to check on previous years but considering we had the recession in '08 I'm wondering if that created an artificial dearth of housing on the market and now it's going back to normal with regards to available units.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS#0
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post 1659590463 04-13-2022, 02:49 PM
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But who was inventory

I’ll worry when there’s pages if finished homes sitting vacant

That isn’t the case right now
post 1659591323 04-13-2022, 03:06 PM
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Let's bump this up in the fall after the busy season of spring/summer, and see where the housing market is.

My guess is prices will be higher, inventory will still be tight. I could be wrong though.
post 1659599443 04-13-2022, 05:43 PM
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So, the borrowing cost for a house will soon be double what it was 6 months ago, but housing prices will still increase?

HTF is that even possible? The requirements to qualify for a loan will remove a ton of buyers from the pool and reduce the price range they can buy.

Of course prices will fall and we're seeing that in most area.

In what world with rising interest rates, sketchy economy, and massive inflation can home prices continue to rise?
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post 1659601133 04-13-2022, 06:29 PM
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Real estate has appreciated by 20-40% across the nation and now interest rates are double what they were. Obviously the buying frenzy would slow at a certain point.
post 1659601233 04-13-2022, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted By anonkunbrah⏩
Gee who would have guessed demand declines when prices rise too high
Interest rates too.
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post 1659601543 04-13-2022, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
So, the borrowing cost for a house will soon be double what it was 6 months ago, but housing prices will still increase?

HTF is that even possible? The requirements to qualify for a loan will remove a ton of buyers from the pool and reduce the price range they can buy.

Of course prices will fall and we're seeing that in most area.

In what world with rising interest rates, sketchy economy, and massive inflation can home prices continue to rise?
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post 1659601793 04-13-2022, 06:43 PM
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Definetly not seeing this in CA, wife just opened another escrow, (third this month) and house went for 30k over asking, the one before that, 100k over asking. New homes aren't being built like before and we are still in a housing shortage, but I do hope you are correct OP, have friends that would finally like to start buying.
post 1659602343 04-13-2022, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Just a reminder, OP sold his properties 2 years ago, "at the peak", trying to time the market.
yup listing my third right now
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post 1659602873 04-13-2022, 07:02 PM
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Oh look another rentcel thread!

Did 13 transactions this month lol
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