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Forum » Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels
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Thread: Fourth straight month of home sales decline, back to 2020 levels

post 1659571123 04-13-2022, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
where did you move from?
Central Illinois is like that, prices have actually gone down, and they were really low to begin with.

I honestly don't understand what's going on everywhere else. Why weren't people buying up houses when they were hundreds of thousands of dollars less? Instead you could negotiate down, have inspections, and everyone would kiss your ass in hopes that you'd buy because a house is the biggest financial commitment most people make in their lives. And this was all during the last decade when there was a supposed severe shortage of homes.

Now people are tripping over themselves to buy a shack in the ghetto that has bars on its windows in cities that don't have growth limiting factors for 2x what they would have paid a year and half ago, no inspections, and no supposed worries for the future. The only way this makes sense is if wages increase at the same rate, or if the dollar loses its value at some comparable rate, otherwise I don't understand how this keeps going on forever.
post 1659571203 04-13-2022, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
Yeah I just got a notice that my county appraisal is set to double. Oh well, my 2021 property taxes were $946 so I think I'll survive this, don't think it has been appraised by the county in a decade or so. Must suck for you guys in TX though aren't your property taxes like Illinois level of extortion?

These threads are retarded.Home prices have gone up so far since 2020 that even a 25% crash would simply put the price back to what it was in 2020,the difference being now the mortgage rate is 5%+ so if you didn't buy in 2020 you're fuked.
That's what I expect as far as most probable downside.



For new homes that would mean a median of $373K, but I would be truly surprised to see the new home median go lower than $380K just because of the inflated cost of materials/labor.

For ALL existing home [includes any POS anywhere in the US] we went from about $300K median to $363K in June 2021. Since then it has moved back down to $350K to $360K. Notice the last recorded number was a move up, not down:

Originally Posted By friesbruh⏩
this will blow your mind.

so i am a licensed RE agent where I am currently (have done 1 deal) but after rate increases, youd think average home pricing would take a dip...... well it didnt, at all.

avg sales price in March was $679,235, up from $638,248 the month prior.

in March, monthly supply went from .4 to .5, showings per listing went from 12.4 to 13.0, and closed sales went from 4,596 to 6,846.

it legit seems as if, at least, no fuks are being given to interest rates. people are buying regardless of it.

any other local stats wanted let me know. can look it up.
Perhaps locking in rates. Or people recognizing that supply isn't likely to increase much anytime soon, while the Fed says they are going to continue to increase rates.
Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
people still had locked in rates

averages and sales have decreased nationally already, there is no disputing that
lower volume = | = lower prices

I don't think there are many people discounting a correction, or a plateau on prices, just the idea that there will be some great bargains coming soondirectly due to higher interest rates.

If the entire economy is going tits up then that's different.
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post 1659571253 04-13-2022, 09:08 AM
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Soo many itt acting like it’s just normal people creating this demand.

It’s quite literally massive corps and hedge funds buying up entire neighborhoods, funded by the Fed, paying $50k over asking all cash.

Chit is soo sure and most people are completely oblivious srs
post 1659571373 04-13-2022, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
that can only describe the market, not predict

You won't know if you're in a weak/strong setting until after the fact. Its not a market principle....
Ok. But your prediction so far is that prices will fall because they are currently high

Unemployment is low and getting lower

Inflation is rampant.

The economic recovery is still getting underway.

In all serious I am not “lol”ing at rentcels I legitimately feel sorry for them as for many this will have been their last chance

I hope history proves me wrong but I’ve never been more certain that it won’t
post 1659571473 04-13-2022, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted By knightofday⏩
Soo many itt acting like it’s just normal people creating this demand.

It’s quite literally massive corps and hedge funds buying up entire neighborhoods, funded by the Fed, paying $50k over asking all cash.

Chit is soo sure and most people are completely oblivious srs
This is not even close to correct. A few minutes of research will show you that investor purchases have only grown astronomically in majority black zip codes where they now make up 30% of purchases. In all other zip codes that number is 12%, or 1 out of every 8.5 purchases. Investor purchases include everything from BB.com's own oracle/multi million dollar real estate mogul rectifryer buying up portfolios of homes to giant corporations and even some random buying one home to rent out. Quite a bit of imagination you have there.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ket-investors/
post 1659571553 04-13-2022, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted By knightofday⏩
Soo many itt acting like it’s just normal people creating this demand.

It’s quite literally massive corps and hedge funds buying up entire neighborhoods, funded by the Fed, paying $50k over asking all cash.

Chit is soo sure and most people are completely oblivious srs
Who's gonna rent all of these houses they bought up at horrible prices? If people couldn't afford the mortgage, the rent's gonna be even higher than that. I suppose the entire country could just turn into a massive coastal California where people spend a significant portion of their income on housing if they didn't buy in a long time ago, but what's going to maintain that long term? There's only so much room to build houses by the coast in California, what's going to force people to pay a similar percentage of their income on housing some place like Nebraska, where there aren't many building regulations and there's almost limitless room to build?
post 1659571573 04-13-2022, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Central Illinois is like that, prices have actually gone down, and they were really low to begin with.

I honestly don't understand what's going on everywhere else. Why weren't people buying up houses when they were hundreds of thousands of dollars less? Instead you could negotiate down, have inspections, and everyone would kiss your ass in hopes that you'd buy because a house is the biggest financial commitment most people make in their lives. And this was all during the last decade when there was a supposed severe shortage of homes.

Now people are tripping over themselves to buy a shack in the ghetto that has bars on its windows in cities that don't have growth limiting factors for 2x what they would have paid a year and half ago, no inspections, and no supposed worries for the future. The only way this makes sense is if wages increase at the same rate, orif the dollar loses its valueat some comparable rate, otherwise I don't understand how this keeps going on forever.
Yeah, Illinois isn't exactly a hot market.



And it is the second one. Dollar devaluation pushing people to trade their fiat for as many physically tangible assets as possible. RE, unlike most tangible assets, can act as a store of wealth and a source of income via rents or production.
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post 1659571663 04-13-2022, 09:16 AM
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All Florida agents are suddenly bombing my ******** feed touting for business an positing links to mortgage.com how there won’t be a crash. Must be getting desperate now.

Lol if you think a house in Dallas Texas is worth over 300k 15 years of qe car finance bubble, housing bubble, this is going to be the mother of all blow ups

Using data is pointless. U would have to be a low iq rtard to not see that housing prices are plummeting, I would argue that in USA right now every second home is for sale lol at inventory argument
post 1659571803 04-13-2022, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
All Florida agents are suddenly bombing my ******** feed touting for business an positing links to mortgage.com how there won’t be a crash. Must be getting desperate now.

Lol if you think a house in Dallas Texas is worth over 300k 15 years of qe car finance bubble, housing bubble, this is going to be the mother of all blow ups

Using data is pointless. U would have to be a low iq rtard to not see that housing prices are plummeting, I would argue that in USA right now every second home is for sale lol at inventory argument
In my neighborhood of maybe 200 homes alone I have seen over 12 houses for sale within the last 4 weeks. I think people are crowding the exit trying to gtfoh
post 1659571863 04-13-2022, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Ok. But your prediction so far is that prices will fall because they are currently high

Unemployment is low and getting lower

Inflation is rampant.

The economic recovery is still getting underway.

In all serious I am not “lol”ing at rentcels I legitimately feel sorry for them as for many this will have been their last chance

I hope history proves me wrong but I’ve never been more certain that it won’t
my prediction is that the 95%, yes 95%, of homes bought with financing will be directly and immediately affected by a raise in interest rates as they were already borrowing at max allowable dti

I don't know how to state that any other way. There's no margin, so demand drops simply because of interest rates....

I attribute cause to factors that have no margin left, and this is a glaring point. First time homebuyers cannot afford this market, they can no longer participate and they're a third of the market. That is a FACT that cannot be ignored. That immediately drops demand, regardless of whatever silly stat correlation games people place. Correlation is not causation. Reducing buying power of the entire market that has no margin left is a causal factor. It shouldn't even need to be explained but there is so much bone reading in RE that reading "analyst" articles is like getting a tarot card read.
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post 1659571883 04-13-2022, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
This is not even close to correct. A few minutes of research will show you that investor purchases have only grown astronomically in majority black zip codes where they now make up 30% of purchases. In all other zip codes that number is 12%, or 1 out of every 8.5 purchases. Investor purchases include everything from BB.com's own oracle/multi million dollar real estate mogul rectifryer buying up portfolios of homes to giant corporations and even some random buying one home to rent out. Quite a bit of imagination you have there.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ket-investors/
Hadn't seen that, but it is interesting if true.

Could be:

- lower acquisition cost
- central location [climate change agenda]
- higher number of section 8 properties [government pays the rent]
Originally Posted By GainzMcgee⏩
In my neighborhood of maybe 200 homes alone I have seen over 12 houses for sale within the last 4 weeks. I think people are crowding the exit trying to gtfoh
Or trying to capture max profits at the peak while there is still some volume before rates rise even more.

Or rushing to be able to move at all. Because a lower volume market makes moving more difficult.
Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
Lol if you think a house in Dallas Texas is worth over 300k 15 years of qe car finance bubble, housing bubble, this is going to be the mother of all blow ups
Dallas isn't a great choice for comparison. We are on pace to surpass Chicago and become the 3rd largest major metro in the US.

Florida is getting hammered harder by property insurance increases due to higher prices for building materials/labor while also being a state with a higher population of retirees living on some sort of fixed income.
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post 1659572033 04-13-2022, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
All Florida agents are suddenly bombing my ******** feed touting for business an positing links to mortgage.com how there won’t be a crash. Must be getting desperate now.

Lol if you think a house in Dallas Texas is worth over 300k 15 years of qe car finance bubble, housing bubble, this is going to be the mother of all blow ups

Using data is pointless. U would have to be a low iq rtard to not see that housing prices are plummeting, I would argue that in USA right now every second home is for sale lol at inventory argument
post 1659572093 04-13-2022, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
my prediction is that the 95%, yes 95%, of homes bought with financing will be directly and immediately affected by a raise in interest rates as they were already borrowing at max allowable dti

I don't know how to state that any other way. There's no margin, so demand drops simply because of interest rates....
Any data to back up the assertion that people are borrowing at max allowable DTI? Anecdotal but I don't know anyone dumb enough to do that, only time I see it happen is HGTV shows my wife watches where the two gay dog groomers and their asexual bipoc roommate somehow have a home budget of $1.4M.
post 1659572153 04-13-2022, 09:25 AM
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Not in my area.
post 1659572183 04-13-2022, 09:26 AM
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Why do we get a new home cope thread every day?

Either way, with interest rates likely hitting 6% soon, your payment will be the same regardless, even with a lower price.

And we won't be seeing 2-3% again for a loooooong (if ever) time.
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post 1659572223 04-13-2022, 09:26 AM
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Time to raise the rent to punish the rentcel again.

Rentcels never learn.
post 1659572243 04-13-2022, 09:27 AM
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In Texas... demand is through the roof. I am in the process of moving, I want some acreage and land to work and out of a HOA and suburbia. Made a 25K over offer on Sunday, their realtor didn't even bother getting back to us to negotiate, just went with some other offer which was probably both cash and higher. Whatever it was, it blew 25K over their asking price out of the water.

Found one smaller house, little less land than I want but nice enough. I'll need to sink 50k into it by the time I'm done to get it up to our standards. Inspector came back with all kinds of chit to work on (AC will need replacement, plumbing, electrical work, need to add bedroom/bath b/c it's a tad small, etc).

Put my house on the market today. Listing is almost double what I paid for it 11 years ago. Already have people lined up to see it today, other comp houses in this area sold well above even our asking price... hoping we sell over too. Just fuking nuts.
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post 1659572533 04-13-2022, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
Any data to back up the assertion that people are borrowing at max allowable DTI? Anecdotal but I don't know anyone dumb enough to do that, only time I see it happen is HGTV shows my wife watches where the two gay dog groomers and their asexual bipoc roommate somehow have a home budget of $1.4M.
I'm deriving it from average demographic for each market subset, ie first time home buyers are age 30-40, median household income $80k, median house price $400k.

that loan payment is $2400/month now, plus taxes and insurance so lets say $3200. They make $6700 month with no debt, no taxes...

See the problem?

People are not sensible like you. You could argue, well they're not buying $400k houses. They're buying cheaper. But now once you consider all other debts.....

In florida, the situation is even worse. Median house is $350k and household income is $55k.Hot markets are getting railed. So now we have Homes making $4600/month spending ~2700/month. That is absolutely terrible. And that's not a "first time homebuyer" comparison, that is just median vs median.

I've seen claims the "fundamentals" are good, but everyone has completely ignored DTI and that's by design.
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post 1659572603 04-13-2022, 09:32 AM
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Everything comes down to supply and demand, 2020- early 2022 was like a drug addict getting a new high. That high is going to wear off and liquidity is slowly draining. Supply has been artificially suppressed and will slowly recover, at the same time demand will decrease as monthlies become more expensive and cost of living increases. Equilibrium will return, rent prices will drop, housing will drop, higher rates mean debt costs more, companies will start to feel this and the drop accelerates when layoffs start
post 1659572673 04-13-2022, 09:33 AM
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post 1659573143 04-13-2022, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
I'm deriving it from average demographic for each market subset, ie first time home buyers are age 30-40, median household income $80k, median house price $400k.

that loan payment is $2400/month now, plus taxes and insurance so lets say $3200. They make $6700 month with no debt, no taxes...

See the problem?

People are not sensible like you.
What makes you think the average home buyer right now makes the median household income, or doesn't have a larger down payment due to selling a house at the current prices as well? Also, a payment on a $400,000 loan at interest rates from last year (I used 3%) is $1,686, not even close to $2,400. Interest rates have only been getting high for the past couple months so using that data to say that people "were already borrowing at max" is faulty because they were not borrowing at 5% but more like 2.8%.

Again, any data to backup this assertion?

I was able to find info that says the average home buyer in 2019 (edit to fix - i put 2021 by mistake) had a household income of $86,000, which is about 25% higher than the median household income of $68,703 at the time, so following that and using your quote (household median of 80k) would mean the average buyer had a household income of $100,000, which would leave you a take home of like $8,000. Even a $2,400 payment on that is 30% of net, considered very safe.
post 1659573233 04-13-2022, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted By xMetalocalypse⏩
Why do we get a new home cope thread every day?

Either way, with interest rates likely hitting 6% soon, your payment will be the same regardless, even with a lower price.

And we won't be seeing 2-3% again for a loooooong (if ever) time.
Feels good being 2.625%. Rentcels on suicide watch.
post 1659573293 04-13-2022, 09:43 AM
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Typical low iq loser. Lol at buying in a hoa
post 1659573323 04-13-2022, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
people still had locked in rates

averages and sales have decreased nationally already, there is no disputing that
> provide source for people having locked in rates and accounting for 100% of increase in price despite rate hikes. blaming rising prices on "locked in rates" is laughable, srs

> there is disputing that, when i literally provided real world data - not from Zillow - but from my particular MLS, so it not uniformly decreasing everywhere. the average may have went down, but plenty of markets have gone and are still going up.
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post 1659573453 04-13-2022, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
What makes you think the average home buyer right now makes the median household income, or doesn't have a larger down payment due to selling a house at the current prices as well? Also, a payment on a $400,000 loan at interest rates from last year (I used 3%) is $1,686, not even close to $2,400. Interest rates have only been getting high for the past couple months so using that data to say that people "were already borrowing at max" is faulty because they were not borrowing at 5% but more like 2.8%.

Again, any data to backup this assertion?

I was able to find info that says the average home buyer in 2019 (edit to fix - i put 2021 by mistake) had a household income of $86,000, which is about 25% higher than the median household income of $68,703 at the time, so following that and using your quote (household median of 80k) would mean the average buyer had a household income of $100,000, which would leave you a take home of like $8,000. Even a $2,400 payment on that is 30% of net, considered very safe.
You're conflating a couple of points regarding home buyers.

First off, a third of the market are first time home buyers. They do not have a lot of money saved up, normally about 5%. First time homebuyers are age 30-40 generally, and make the amount I stated in household. Of course some buyers have more money from their first house....but its not the first time home buyers.

I gave a BEST case example outlining how even someone with no debt could not finance at existing interest rates, which is the premise of my argument. Its not a leap to assume borrowers have been high DTI this whole time, since you can borrow 50+% dti per guidelines right now. I know, I've personally qualified multiple times.
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post 1659573653 04-13-2022, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
You're conflating a couple of points regarding home buyers.

First off, a third of the market are first time home buyers. They do not have a lot of money saved up, normally about 5%. First time homebuyers are age 30-40 generally, and make the amount I stated in household. Of course some buyers have more money from their first house....but its not the first time home buyers.
My data was for the average home buyer in the US and clearly shows they make higher than the median household income. Home buyers on the whole tend to be higher income. Why would we need to split the market into segments like first time buyers when we're talking about prices market wide? Are first time home buyers buying different homes than the rest of us?

You have no data to backup your assertion that people are borrowing at max DTI whereas I have provided some data that points in the opposite direction.
post 1659573733 04-13-2022, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted By soaponarope1⏩
My data was for the average home buyer in the US and clearly shows they make higher than the median household income. Home buyers on the whole tend to be higher income. Why would we need to split the market into segments like first time buyers when we're talking about prices market wide?

You have no data to backup your assertion that people are borrowing at max DTI whereas I have provided some data that points in the opposite direction.
Your data shows that the average household already can't afford the average home. You've made the case even worse. As I stated I was trying to come at this from a best case scenario perspective, as I intend to bound the analysis.

If you're going to plain face assert that people are going to go higher DTI now but not before, then you've made some sort of arbitrary lapse in judgement I can't defuse.
Boycott foodservice industry crew
post 1659573993 04-13-2022, 09:55 AM
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Sell my house and buy another house with a 5 percent interest rate or pay more for rent, no thanks. There isn’t going to be a crash Lmao
post 1659574213 04-13-2022, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Your data shows that the average house already can't afford the average home. You've made the case even worse. As I stated I was trying to come at this from a best case scenario perspective, as I intend to bound the analysis.

If you're going to plain face assert that people are going to go higher DTI now but not before, then you've made some sort of arbitrary lapse in judgement I can't defuse.
How do you figure? Data shows that the average home buyer has an above median household income. Interest rates last year were sub 3%. They made an average down payment of 6% and had the median home purchase price in 2021 was $346,900. If anything that shows that people made good decisions DTI wise as a 30 year mortgage of 326,086 (median - 6%) is $1,375 which is only $85 more than the average rent payment for a 2BR apartment last year. If they are making even the median household income you stated of $80,000 that was a good financial decision.

You've stated that people
Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Its not a leap to assume borrowers have been high DTI this whole time, since you can borrow 50+% dti per guidelines right now.
and
Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
they were already borrowing at max allowable dti
yet have provided absolutely zero data to back that up. None at all.

Edit - FWIW I don't really have a dog in this fight, I bought a house that needed a ton of rehab so was already valued at about 70% to a comparable in the area, and I have since mostly completed rehab and the area has appreciated ~30% so I'll never be underwater.
post 1659574303 04-13-2022, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted By AWSbruh⏩
Sell my house and buy another house with a 5 percent interest rate or pay more for rent, no thanks. There isn’t going to be a crash Lmao
wait for the market to return to natural levels then refinance when interest drops again and save 100s of thousands of dollars

yeah, there's going to be a crash
Boycott foodservice industry crew
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