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» Japanese Stock Market drops 6% in Monday trading. Black Monday is here.
08-05-2024, 06:59 AM
#61
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
There will be a dead cat bounce at least
This dip won't be very deep. There is 65% more money running around today compared to before COVID (M0 supply), and stocks are only up 55% since then. Normally, the correlation between monetary inflation and index price growth is absolutely slavish.
Options are too expensive to play right now while volatility is so high, but I would bet on SPY making up all these loasses turning around in about 2 weeks. There's just too much money chasing too few investments for it to fall further.
Options are too expensive to play right now while volatility is so high, but I would bet on SPY making up all these loasses turning around in about 2 weeks. There's just too much money chasing too few investments for it to fall further.
M0 does not correlate 1:1 with the stock market. The market has risen about 4x since 2008, where as M0 as increased about 7.8x.
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08-05-2024, 07:14 AM
#62
I feel zero panic today.
This is a global sell off. It's affecting all assets.
Unfortunately the Fed waited too long to cut rates and now we're going to feel some pain. May as well avoid the charts until the next FOMC meeting in September.
This is a global sell off. It's affecting all assets.
Unfortunately the Fed waited too long to cut rates and now we're going to feel some pain. May as well avoid the charts until the next FOMC meeting in September.
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08-05-2024, 07:16 AM
#63
Originally Posted By OffwhiteBrah⏩
lulwut?
I feel zero panic today.
This is a global sell off. It's affecting all assets.
Unfortunately the Fed waited too long to cut rates and now we're going to feel some pain. May as well avoid the charts until the next FOMC meeting in September.
This is a global sell off. It's affecting all assets.
Unfortunately the Fed waited too long to cut rates and now we're going to feel some pain. May as well avoid the charts until the next FOMC meeting in September.
The rates should be twice as high, low rates for too long is what caused this
08-05-2024, 07:22 AM
#64
-6% !!!!
lol
Kamela and Bidens economy!!!
lol
Kamela and Bidens economy!!!
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08-05-2024, 07:26 AM
#65
bought BTC when it dropped to 50k
das it mane
das it mane
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08-05-2024, 07:30 AM
#66
Originally Posted By OffwhiteBrah⏩
Rates aren't going down substantively for many months still.
I feel zero panic today.
This is a global sell off. It's affecting all assets.
Unfortunately the Fed waited too long to cut rates and now we're going to feel some pain. May as well avoid the charts until the next FOMC meeting in September.
This is a global sell off. It's affecting all assets.
Unfortunately the Fed waited too long to cut rates and now we're going to feel some pain. May as well avoid the charts until the next FOMC meeting in September.
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08-05-2024, 07:31 AM
#67
Originally Posted By nickh04⏩
bought BTC when it dropped to 50k
das it mane
das it mane
It was 22k less than a year ago….
Itll recover.
Itll hit 100k.
SOON.
08-05-2024, 07:35 AM
#68
The market is now pricing in a 95% chance of a 0.50 US rate cut in September lol
08-05-2024, 07:38 AM
#69
Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Adjust your window to 2010 and M0 vs SPY lines up much better. It lines up 1 to 1 to a freaky degree. The correlation between 2010 and 2019 was literally 97%
There will be a dead cat bounce at least
M0 does not correlate 1:1 with the stock market. The market has risen about 4x since 2008, where as M0 as increased about 7.8x.
M0 does not correlate 1:1 with the stock market. The market has risen about 4x since 2008, where as M0 as increased about 7.8x.
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08-05-2024, 07:43 AM
#70
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Lol, I just really don't see them doing it. Would be a big mistake to go that much.
The market is now pricing in a 95% chance of a 0.50 US rate cut in September lol
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08-05-2024, 07:43 AM
#71
08-05-2024, 07:46 AM
#72
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
They don’t care, they will do whatever is easiest short term
Lol, I just really don't see them doing it. Would be a big mistake to go that much.
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08-05-2024, 07:48 AM
#73
Got the vast majority of my money a HISA earning like 5% because I will be buying a house in the next 1-2 years. Don't want my downpayment at risk. On days when the market is killing it, not gonna lie, it sucks, but on days like today… boy does it feel good to be playing it safe. People say it is boomer advice, too conservative, etc. But the psychological value alone is big for me. Never risking my downpayment crew.
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08-05-2024, 08:10 AM
#74
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
The market has been grossly optimistic and wrong this whole time so
Lol, I just really don't see them doing it. Would be a big mistake to go that much.
08-05-2024, 02:50 PM
#75
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
It can uncorrellate just as easy as it correlated. It doesn't happen in a vacuum. The cause behind it does not have to persist.
Adjust your window to 2010 and M0 vs SPY lines up much better. It lines up 1 to 1 to a freaky degree. The correlation between 2010 and 2019 was literally 97%
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08-05-2024, 02:53 PM
#76
Originally Posted By sphinxbrah⏩
you'd be far ahead
Got the vast majority of my money a HISA earning like 5% because I will be buying a house in the next 1-2 years. Don't want my downpayment at risk. On days when the market is killing it, not gonna lie, it sucks, but on days like today… boy does it feel good to be playing it safe. People say it is boomer advice, too conservative, etc. But the psychological value alone is big for me. Never risking my downpayment crew.
I'm pretty bullish on the market despite my arguments. Those in charge do not like losing money.
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08-05-2024, 03:10 PM
#77
Originally Posted By ThatGuy950⏩
If this were true, it would’ve happened already.
They don’t care, they will do whatever is easiest short term
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08-08-2024, 01:26 PM
#78
Dow closes nearly 700 pionts higher after latest jobless data, we back boyos
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