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Forum » "Herd immunity is not going to work for this virus."
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Thread: "Herd immunity is not going to work for this virus."

post 1603254441 04-23-2020, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted By rise21⏩
Apologies I had a decimal in the wrong place.
So you can see why we see this as being serious. Seasonal flue around 0.1 and as we test more in New York we are seeing a "relatively low" claim of 0.6% or even more. And it's far more contagious so a lot more people are getting it and going to get it in addition to being ~5x + more deadly. That can add up real quick.
post 1603254721 04-23-2020, 12:14 PM
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STFU
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post 1603254871 04-23-2020, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted By Retoaded⏩
Its almost as if they hype stuff up to receive millions of dollars of funding to research it.

*cough cough global warming cough cough*
God knows. On that note, I was honestly shocked by the USC study.

I just think its funny how we mock the media for being over-dramatic and yet believe everything we hear from them about one of the most sensational stories in our lifetimes.
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post 1603255051 04-23-2020, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
God knows. On that note, I was honestly shocked by the USC study.

I just think its funny how we mock the media for being over-dramatic and yet believe everything we hear from them about one of the most sensational stories in our lifetimes.
You believe everything you hear from the media?

Oh you poor soul
post 1603255331 04-23-2020, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Added a link now to the interview that I saw.

The doctor says that they have just found that the virus effects men and older people more because cells have to have 2 different proteins to be infected.

Watch and see for yourselves.
Haven't watched it, but if he is saying this with any kind of certainty, I would be skeptical. I assume he is referring to

https://www.embopress.org/doi/full/1...05114-fig-0004

please see the various limitations listed associated with the claim, it is really quite speculative. I wish people, especially apparent experts, would qualify their claims more when referring to newer, and incomplete findings.

Btw there are many experts who are saying different things as well, for example in regards to the 100x more deadly claim. To single out this guy is somewhat odd. Also not one to care about typos in general (I make them just the same) but *affects, this one happens to be a pet peeve.
Originally Posted By katya422⏩
IDK why this continues to be so controversial.

Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 to 0.2.

So if COVID has a mortality rate of 1.0 to 2.0 that would be 100X higher.

From Worldometer:



IOW a mortality rate of 1.0 or 2.0 is relatively conservative.
Come on, really?
Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
I did the math myself and got 0.5% then you posted your preferred source which also said 0.5%.

Maybe you should read it before linking it next time, so you don't have to argue against yourself lol

Here is another similar article about the same testing

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-wide-spread

"In New York City, the hardest-hit area in the U.S., 21.2% of people tested positive for a blood marker showing that they had been infected at some point. "

"It also means that the fatality rate of the virus is likely lower than the figure that’s based only on confirmed cases and deaths. Officially, New York has reported 15,500 deaths. If 2.7 million people have been infected,that would put the fatality rate at around 0.6%."


Damn another source for the same data that says the same thing I did.
Let's suppose this is all legit and based on good data and science (itself quite a leap).

How exactly, then, does this relate to the claim in the OP that it is 100x as deadly, again? Is .5% on the order of 100 times as high as flu mortality?

The numbers above, of course, are in reference to the hot center NYC no less...
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post 1603255431 04-23-2020, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
Let's suppose this is all legit and based on good data and science (itself quite a leap).

How exactly, then, does this relate to the claim in the OP that it is 100x as deadly, again? Is .5% on the order of 100 times as high as flu mortality?

The numbers above, of course, are in reference to the hot center NYC no less...
It doesn't. I was responding to the article posted by the guy I quoted. No relation to the OP intended on my part. I have not addressed the OP article or info and don't intend to. Why? IDGAF about whoever that is and whatever he is saying, frankly (and yeah the 100x is a factor there lol)
post 1603255541 04-23-2020, 12:22 PM
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If what he says is actually true, then nothing matters since it will be fatal for virtually everyone.
Brb cant gain herd immunity
Brb 100 more deadly than flu which already kills hundreds and thousands per year
Brb close schools for ... apparently indefinitely.

Basically if you are over 60 your morality rate would be like 100% within a 5 year span.
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post 1603255741 04-23-2020, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
(and yeah the 100x is a factor there lol)
What does this mean?
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post 1603255961 04-23-2020, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
So you can see why we see this as being serious. Seasonal flue around 0.1 and as we test more in New York we are seeing a "relatively low" claim of 0.6% or even more. And it's far more contagious so a lot more people are getting it and going to get it in addition to being ~5x + more deadly. That can add up real quick.
Yea I was more looking at the 100x more deadly than the flu number in the OP.
post 1603256131 04-23-2020, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
to be fair, the scientist says it’s 100x more deadly, watch the video in the op, around 2:30 mark

Guy says it’s basically like the flu, can expect to have up to 6 months of antibodies then you can get it again
That’s an unfortunate error to make for a scientist. Considering many people will use a simple magnitude error that’s easily fixed as reasons to disregard everything else.
They said she's gone too far this time

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post 1603256241 04-23-2020, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted By MiscInformed⏩
+1 for noticing that.

+1 if you also noticed that one of the mods is very intent on moving everything that doesn't fit the official narrative to that thread.

I posted something a few days ago. Thread wasn't deleted. Thread wasn't merged. My text was simply deleted and replaced with some note to the effect that I need to post on that thread. Since I no longer had a record of what I'd written and I'd need to rewrite the whole thing, I just threw up my hands and logged off. It's a pretty chitty way to moderate. I ran a vbulletin forum for about 15 years and I can't recall ever having done anything as passive aggressive as that.
I hate to say it but I agree with you, I have seen some absolutely ridiculous thread merges that has just made me assume there's a mod who wants a very specific narrative discussed openly and nothing else. Not going to speculate on who it is, but it's flat out ridiculous.
post 1603256281 04-23-2020, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
What does this mean?
ain't nobody got time for that
Originally Posted By TrinnieBuu⏩
That’s an unfortunate error to make for a scientist. Considering many people will use a simple magnitude error that’s easily fixed as reasons to disregard everything else.
Shouldn't something as huge as that extremely obvious, headlining magnitude error cause and immediate double take and "that can't be right" double checking of your work/numbers before publishing ****? I mean, isn't that, like...super sloppy?

Like if I try to calculate our monthly household grocery budget and I come up with $10,000 I'm going to be like...wait...what did I do wrong.
post 1603256491 04-23-2020, 12:33 PM
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post 1603256561 04-23-2020, 12:34 PM
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I'm liking how much chit about these antibodies tests coming out. We're just scratching the surface of how widespread this thing actually is, because it's been around SINCE GOD DAMN NOVEMBER (which people just remain completely oblivious too).

All the pieces of this grand hoax are slowly coming together. Most of you scaremongers didn't give a crap about this thing in November-January, I'm honestly starting to believe that 99%+ of people have already been exposed to this thing.
post 1603256721 04-23-2020, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted By thebrainiac⏩
I'm liking how much chit about these antibodies tests coming out. We're just scratching the surface of how widespread this thing actually is, because it's been around SINCE GOD DAMN NOVEMBER (which people just remain completely oblivious too).

All the pieces of this grand hoax are slowly coming together. Most of you scaremongers didn't give a crap about this thing in November-January, I'm honestly starting to believe that 99%+ of people have already been exposed to this thing.
Are you referring to the antibody test that showed 1.5% positive in CA despite being prone to false positives, or are you referring to the NYC antibody test that indicates only being 6x deadlier than flu (and also far more contagious)?


99%+ already exposed is a really interesting number to pull from 1.5% testing positive for antibodies. I think maybe you don't understand what these numbers are. 1.5% represents the ones that have maybe been exposed (stanford study)...not the other way around.
post 1603256801 04-23-2020, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
If only there was a stickied thread for this topic.
Originally Posted By hoop84⏩
Post this chit in the stickied thread
Originally Posted By jackamo2887⏩
Oh cool another Corona thread.
Originally Posted By Fuqdatass⏩
Guess all corona threads get merged unless it’s baseless bullchit from a vagina than it can stay
These. Fuking annoying seeing this chit taking over the the misc
post 1603256851 04-23-2020, 12:37 PM
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another ****gy "scientist" looking for his 5 minutes of fame

his "100 times deadlier than the flu" statement tells you everything you need to know about him
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post 1603257061 04-23-2020, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
ain't nobody got time for that
er ok, so no response. Almost seems like random words are being strung together just to say something.
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post 1603257211 04-23-2020, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
er ok, so no response. Almost seems like random words are being strung together just to say something.
Exactly. Like I said, I'm not responding to the OP's article or video or anything. No response.

I responded to a completely different article that was posted in this thread.

Seems simple to me? Not every single post to a thread has to be directly responding to the OP
post 1603257421 04-23-2020, 12:44 PM
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I would just assume you have people in China that constantly visit places and LA and NYC a lot. If it's been around since November then there's a strong chance it's been in the U.S. for a hot minute.
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post 1603257441 04-23-2020, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted By DCutch⏩
I hate to say it but I agree with you, I have seen some absolutely ridiculous thread merges that has just made me assume there's a mod who wants a very specific narrative discussed openly and nothing else. Not going to speculate on who it is, but it's flat out ridiculous.
Well it's pretty god damn obvious anyway...
post 1603258161 04-23-2020, 12:51 PM
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Question we need to start asking is what are we waiting for to relax restrictions? Chances of dying from COVID for the young and healthy is still exceedingly low and often coupled with pre-existing conditions. Now we know the fatality rate is possibly far lower than expected. 97% of deaths from covid statestide are in patients over the age of 45. 91% are over the age of 55. At what point do we tell the elderly with risk factors to self isolate so we can stop savaging our economy? Not to mention other unspoken factors of lockdown. The amount of people who will have lost their business, job opportunities, investments, their savings, general well-being.

Waiting for a vaccine is out of the question, when you have medical authorities suggesting that even a 12-18 month turnover would be a long shot. Waiting for some arbitrary number of deaths is also ridiculous. We need to stop obsessing over low death rates and open a dialogue about the damage quarantine has caused in a serious manner, and not demonize people who suggest it.
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post 1603258291 04-23-2020, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
Question we need to start asking is what are we waiting for to relax restrictions? Chances of dying from COVID for the young and healthy is still exceedingly low andoften coupled with pre-existing conditions. Now we know the fatality rate is possibly far lower than expected. 97% of deaths from covid statestide are in patients over the age of 45. 91% are over the age of 55. At what point do we tell the elderly with risk factors to self isolate so we can stop savaging our economy? Not to mention other unspoken factors of lockdown. The amount of people who will have lost their business, job opportunities, investments, their savings, general well-being.

Waiting for a vaccine is out of the question, when you have medical authorities suggesting that even a 12-18 month turnover would be a long shot. Waiting for some arbitrary number of deaths is also ridiculous. We need to stop obsessing over low death rates and open a dialogue about the damage quarantine has caused in a serious manner, and not demonize people who suggest it.
For the record, CDC estimates 46% of Americans qualify as higher risk to complications due to pre-existing conditions. All it takes is high blood pressure to make that list. CDC also estimates that more than half at increased risk are under age 60

Would you mind providing links to your sources on % breakdown by age?
post 1603258321 04-23-2020, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
Exactly. Like I said, I'm not responding to the OP's article or video or anything. No response.

I responded to a completely different article that was posted in this thread.

Seems simple to me? Not every single post to a thread has to be directly responding to the OP
Seems to be some misunderstanding. I was simply asking you whatyoumeant when you said " (and yeah the 100x is a factor there lol)". I honestly don't know what you mean by this phrase, and what it's referring to, and was curious. I'm not talking about whether you are responding to the video or not.
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post 1603258361 04-23-2020, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
God knows. On that note, I was honestly shocked by the USC study.

I just think its funny how we mock the media for being over-dramatic and yet believe everything we hear from them about one of the most sensational stories in our lifetimes.
Do you pop in to post this once a day in search of brownie points? Lmao.
post 1603258531 04-23-2020, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted By numberguy12⏩
Seems to be some misunderstanding. I was simply asking you whatyoumeant when you said " (and yeah the 100x is a factor there lol)". I honestly don't know what you mean by this phrase, and what's it's referring to, and was curious. I'm not talking about whether you are responding to the video or not.
The highest number anybody even half credible has ever put up based on any kind of actual data was the original 3.4% CFR from China which would roughly be given as 34x deadlier than seasonal influenza. Currently we are arguing about somewhere in the range of 0.6%-ish maybe (still a moving target who knows) which would be ~6x deadlier.

ain't nobody got time for some guy talking about 100x
post 1603259471 04-23-2020, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
For the record, CDC estimates 46% of Americans qualify as higher risk to complications due to pre-existing conditions. All it takes is high blood pressure to make that list. CDC also estimates that more than half at increased risk are under age 60

Would you mind providing links to your sources on % breakdown by age?
Fine, we're a nation of fatties and diabetes/obesity is probably the most common pre-existing condition. But the numbers we have in terms of actual fatalities show an exceedingly low percentage being under 45. And if we could get get additional data on pre-existing conditions of all patients, that would be even better.

In Italy there was mention about how a majority of elderly deaths from COVID (the category comprising most of deaths, remember) had severe pre-existing conditions that would likely have killed them within the next couple years. Looking for the exact number, but this article glosses on it:https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...y-mystery.html

Again though, we're obsessing over some highly specific stats which while useful, are completely ignoring the other half of this pandemic.

age of victims in USA through 4/18
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Originally Posted By ko300zx⏩
Do you pop in to post this once a day in search of brownie points? Lmao.
Ur fukin weird bro srs. Never seen someone agree with me and then neg me in the same thread.
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post 1603259641 04-23-2020, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
The highest number anybody even half credible has ever put up based on any kind of actual data was the original 3.4% CFR from China which would roughly be given as 34x deadlier than seasonal influenza. Currently we are arguing about somewhere in the range of 0.6%-ish maybe (still a moving target who knows) which would be ~6x deadlier.

ain't nobody got time for some guy talking about 100x
There are a lot of unkonwns in these kinds of analyses. Keep in mind the above is in reference to NYC only, the apparent major hotbed, and you have the rest of nation to consider when throwing out things like "6x deadlier". For this reason, and for so many other reasons including quality of the data, anyone throwing out a .6% IFR is simply vaguely speculating. In my opinion there isn't much value in these kinds of claims.

To the second part, I agree with that.
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post 1603259801 04-23-2020, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted By CaliSuperSport⏩
Fine, we're a nation of fatties and diabetes/obesity is probably the most common pre-existing condition. But the numbers we have in terms of actual fatalities show an exceedingly low percentage being under 45. And if we could get get additional data on pre-existing conditions of all patients, that would be even better.

In Italy there was mention about how a majority of elderly deaths from COVID (the category comprising most of deaths, remember) had severe pre-existing conditions that would likely have killed them within the next couple years. Looking for the exact number, but this article glosses on it:https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...y-mystery.html

Again though, we're obsessing over some highly specific stats which while useful, are completely ignoring the other half of this pandemic.

age of victims in USA through 4/18
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm



Ur fukin weird bro srs. Never seen someone agree with me and then neg me in the same thread.
Good link
post 1603260121 04-23-2020, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted By Farley1324⏩
For the record, CDC estimates 46% of Americans qualify as higher risk to complications due to pre-existing conditions. All it takes is high blood pressure to make that list. CDC also estimates that more than half at increased risk are under age 60

Would you mind providing links to your sources on % breakdown by age?
Having high blood pressure is not equivalent to undergoing chemotherapy. Not all pre-existing health conditions have the same risk. How many people under 50 have died from it that just had high blood pressure? Probably not much more than those without.
500lb Squat
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