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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1678887803 03-13-2023, 02:04 PM
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#2731
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Anyone wanna offer a range on CPI tomorrow?

I'll start it off with a tight range of 6.1 to 6.3.

Please state your range and what it means.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1678889243 03-13-2023, 02:31 PM
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#2732
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No one?







You guy will miss me when I'm gone.







Thank you for the coffee and donuts Marsellus <3.



I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1678889383 03-13-2023, 02:34 PM
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#2733
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Oh lawwwwd lol. Canada is truly fukt tho

Edit: on the variable rate thing I mean.
It shouldn't be, every mortgage coming up for renewal this year and beyond would have been stress-tested at rates much higher than what was actually available -- the BoC knew what was coming.

Our borrowing power has effectively been throttled since 2018, only getting approved for the amount passing through the stress test rather than 1.xx%
post 1678890483 03-13-2023, 02:54 PM
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#2734
  1. hardestgainer
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Oh lawwwwd lol. Canada is truly fukt tho

Edit: on the variable rate thing I mean.
This is in regard to Idaho, we are the largest mortgage lender in the state. Idaho has also had the most overvalued housing prices on the nation, back to back years. This entire states housing market is going to collapse

https://amp.idahostatesman.com/news/...262478187.html
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post 1678892993 03-13-2023, 03:35 PM
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#2735
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Originally Posted By hardestgainer⏩
This is in regard to Idaho, we are the largest mortgage lender in the state. Idaho has also had the most overvalued housing prices on the nation, back to back years. This entire states housing market is going to collapse

https://amp.idahostatesman.com/news/...262478187.html
No it shouldn’t. 3% interest will keep people afloat. It’s kinda the same as more average prices with higher interest I would think. But yeah foreclosures will probably go up. I think it’ll be sustainable otherwise I wouldn’t buy fnma stuff lmao
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1678893703 03-13-2023, 03:49 PM
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#2736
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In Canada you've needed to qualify for a mortgage by passing through a stress test at high 4% or 5%+ even if the actual rate you're getting is <2%, lowest stress test rate to date has been 4.79% and that was when the 5-year fixed rate was as low as 1.39%


HELOCs have long seemed like the biggest risk as house values have blown up, especially in the hot speculative markets, making people more inclined to take out loans against those gains
post 1678896023 03-13-2023, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Anyone wanna offer a range on CPI tomorrow?

I'll start it off with a tight range of 6.1 to 6.3.

Please state your range and what it means.
I think consensus expectation is 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. But IIRC, I think some local fed chair hinted about a positive surprise? I'm going to guess 0.2% M/M and 5.3% Y/Y
mo e
post 1678900083 03-13-2023, 06:04 PM
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#2738
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
I think consensus expectation is 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. But IIRC, I think some local fed chair hinted about a positive surprise? I'm going to guess 0.2% M/M and 5.3% Y/Y
Not talking core, I'm talking about the scarier, larger number.

CPI is expected to be 6% YoY.

Thanks.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1678900653 03-13-2023, 06:15 PM
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#2739
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Oil and energy has gone up the past few months curious what the number comes in at tomorrow.
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1678901883 03-13-2023, 06:42 PM
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#2740
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it will be 6% y/y

core 0.4%

pretty sure Biden slipped it out last week saying inflation report is looking optimistic.





made me lol

post 1678902283 03-13-2023, 06:52 PM
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#2741
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
it will be 6% y/y

core 0.4%

pretty sure Biden slipped it out last week saying inflation report is looking optimistic.





made me lol

USD getting crushed tomorrow?
post 1678902423 03-13-2023, 06:55 PM
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#2742
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
USD getting crushed tomorrow?
that will come next week with FOMC

what ever Jerome decides.

25BPS hike USD stops drilling

pause yeah USD phucked

rate cut USD super phucked


some idiots banks now saying that Fed will do rate cut next week -25bps just LOL
post 1678902893 03-13-2023, 07:06 PM
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#2743
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
that will come next week with FOMC

what ever Jerome decides.

25BPS hike USD stops drilling

pause yeah USD phucked

rate cut USD super phucked


some idiots banks now saying that Fed will do rate cut next week -25bps just LOL
25BPS still seems likely based on Powell's comments last week.

You think this could cause the USD to bounce back above 105/106?
post 1678903533 03-13-2023, 07:23 PM
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#2744
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
that will come next week with FOMC

what ever Jerome decides.

25BPS hike USD stops drilling

pause yeah USD phucked

rate cut USD super phucked


some idiots banks now saying that Fed will do rate cut next week -25bps just LOL
No way in hell they actually cut.

I don't even put much creedence in the idea of a pause this early. I think they go the 25 no matter what and then they'll pay lip service to banks needing to be more responsible with their procedures and risk mitigation, etc.
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post 1678908543 03-13-2023, 08:51 PM
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#2745
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It is dumb that I have to post in order to subscribe to this thread. That is all.
post 1678910733 03-13-2023, 09:37 PM
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#2746
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Originally Posted By im2manly⏩
It is dumb that I have to post in order to subscribe to this thread. That is all.
Too bad we are about to start a new one
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678913553 03-13-2023, 10:56 PM
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#2747
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It sounds like banks are suggesting lending standards and amount of lending will tighten up as a result of all this and do part of the Fed’s job, and they’re legit fearful of what more could come thus are very much hoping the rate hikes will stop.
post 1678926953 03-14-2023, 05:49 AM
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#2748
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people at the office were freaken out yesterday - specially the older ones that are looking at retiring in the next few years. The stock lost a ton of value so their RSU/Stocks and 401k are ugly af

Biden front run the market telling people about CPI numbers - I bought spy calls yesterday so let see how it plays out
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1678932383 03-14-2023, 07:44 AM
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#2749
  1. camaleom
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
people at the office were freaken out yesterday - specially the older ones that are looking at retiring in the next few years. The stock lost a ton of value so their RSU/Stocks and 401k are ugly af

Biden front run the market telling people about CPI numbers - I bought spy calls yesterday so let see how it plays out
and ty very much Bideneasy money
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1678932513 03-14-2023, 07:46 AM
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#2750
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
and ty very much Bideneasy money
Market was going to rally even at 6.3%.

Good job calling 6 CarbonFibre.

<3.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1678933523 03-14-2023, 08:04 AM
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#2751
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Inflation Reduction Act doing its job to bring real new manufacturing investment back to our shores: Volkswagen building its first-ever North American battery plant in Ontario. To qualify for both manufacturing credits and the $7500 consumer credit on EVs, batteries need to be manufactured in North America and components + critical battery minerals need to come from North America or countries the US has Free Trade agreements with.

It'll be interesting to see what Europe does in response to the IRA, because right now this is pulling capital towards us. And next up will be Hyundai/Kia/Genesis group in South Korea.
post 1678934883 03-14-2023, 08:21 AM
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#2752
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the more than China keep up with the bs the more we are going to keep attracting investment back to US/Canada and some of the other countries.
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1678935173 03-14-2023, 08:24 AM
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#2753
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Originally Posted By camaleom⏩
the more than China keep up with the bs the more we are going to keep attracting investment back to US/Canada and some of the other countries.
Definitely, Inflation Reduction Act in particular is all about pulling the battery supply chain out of China as they currently have a borderline monopoly on it.

Battery minerals will be the real challenge
post 1678947013 03-14-2023, 11:25 AM
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#2754
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Meta announces 10k in layoffs and Zuck says there will likely be more due to economy.


BRB up 7% on the day
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post 1678954483 03-14-2023, 01:24 PM
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#2755
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
bullish as fuk.

bad time to enter tech tho..
Lol the funniest is the sheer number of people who worked at FB and other tech companies from home and juggled 3 jobs working a collective 20-40 hours a week making $200k at each “job”.

Ruh roo they caught on.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678961183 03-14-2023, 03:22 PM
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#2756
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I think that lifestyle isn't even a purely tech phenomenon anymore.. when I left my last employer the person who replaced me said they didn't leave their last job which was also remote. Pissed me off because I did the ethical thing and left my remote job for the new one. Otherwise I could've had two jobs pulling in $275k. Surprised more companies don't check productivity or anything, tons of money is being wasted on these workers (and I'm guilty of it too, except I actually provide value while doing it).
I mean I’ve got 2 jobs too, but one is strictly being “on call” 7pm-7am and the other is a daytime operation. Honestly if I thought I could swing it I’d have 2 daytime jobs but honestly I put in enough effort I don’t think I could get everything done for 2 jobs plus daytime I gotta be available all the time basically 9-9 for my staff to reach me. Honestly if there was another health system and they offered me a similar overnight gig I’d consider it. Although that would mean I probably couldn’t ever just have a drink LOL
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1678992613 03-15-2023, 05:58 AM
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#2757
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Is it "too soon junior" to start buying a little heavier or do we still have a ways to fall?

Thinking we still have a ways down to go but would also like to get some extra shares at a discount while we're here.
post 1678992833 03-15-2023, 06:04 AM
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#2758
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Credit Suisse down 20, saudis out, trade halted
post 1678994843 03-15-2023, 06:49 AM
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#2759
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yeah CS is done

this called limit down on many euro banks




also PPI / retail sales missed by country mile

WTI diving under $70 (not good)


demand destruction doing its thing

guess fed is winning



set alarm clock early and went short ES futures.
post 1678998233 03-15-2023, 07:58 AM
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#2760
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
yeah CS is done

this called limit down on many euro banks




also PPI / retail sales missed by country mile

WTI diving under $70 (not good)


demand destruction doing its thing

guess fed is winning



set alarm clock early and went short ES futures.
You have been wrong on every scale. You are a Biden supporter who thinks the banking sector is safe... LULZ!!! Absolute moron!!!
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