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Forum » Offered my Dentist 5% Fixed Return if he invested up to £24,000 ($30K) per year in me
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Thread: Offered my Dentist 5% Fixed Return if he invested up to £24,000 ($30K) per year in me

post 1493078731 04-30-2017, 07:07 PM
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#121
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Anyway OP your last thread clearly stated the average yearly return on a portfolio of stocks was greater than 10%, and here you offer your dentist friend 5%?

So basically you are charging your friend 5% to buy a couple of stocks.

So either you are a kunt or a ****ty troll. Either way lol at you srs
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post 1493079821 04-30-2017, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted By butwhowasgains⏩
Anyway OP your last thread clearly stated the average yearly return on a portfolio of stocks was greater than 10%, and here you offer your dentist friend 5%?

So basically you are charging your friend 5% to buy a couple of stocks.

So either you are a kunt or a ****ty troll. Either way lol at you srs
He is guaranteeing 5% to the dentist though. So the dentist has no risk from a market crash or dip - not a bad deal actually.

Just don't think I'd trust OP to pay me in that event, I'd need a contract in writing.
𝕮𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖈𝖍𝖊𝖈𝕶, 𝖓𝖊𝖛𝖊𝖗 𝖈𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖇𝖎𝖙𝖈𝖍

█▓▒▒░░🧵Make trolls invisible: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=180234573 ░░▒▒▓█
post 1493080251 04-30-2017, 07:20 PM
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this is a chit deal for your dentist friend

that 5% guarantee puts a cap on earnings that would almost definitely be smoothed out with a more likely increase in yield over your 5 year time period through a few simple index funds.
post 1493080551 04-30-2017, 07:23 PM
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like, if he wants a fund manager, most fund managers don't shoot their clients in the foot once they get 5% ROI

if he were smart he'd ask to see your results over a 3, 5, 10 yr period.
post 1493080881 04-30-2017, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted By Luc1fer⏩
He is guaranteeing 5% to the dentist though. So the dentist has no risk from a market crash or dip - not a bad deal actually.

Just don't think I'd trust OP to pay me in that event, I'd need a contract in writing.
He also said he could make 7.5% annually on intentional long term government bonds with no risks

I was just pointing out his inconsistency mostly, 5% guaranteed per year is good, but OP is probably also a chitty troll.

Also fund managers make like 1%, and if it was as easy to make the returns that OP claims, his dentist should be able to get 9% through a fund manager and OP would still be a *******.
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post 1493081191 04-30-2017, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted By Luc1fer⏩
I did a bunch of research on this in the bogleheads forums and elsewhere. The extremely consistent feedback was that there was effectively no difference in costs to me. Both vehicles issue the same dividends. So when you say it "costs me money" I have no ideawhere this expense is and when it comes out of my pocket(in the form of taxes on dividends, withdrawal or elsewhere?). I wish you were less vague so I could shift my money to the ETF if it is actually better for me in the long run.
I'm saying you will pay more in the long-run via taxes due to the increased trading which is a byproduct of the structure. Of course I'm being vague because it's not like it's an expense ratio where I can just say it'll add 1 bp/year in costs. It depends on the cost basis of the underlying, the gains passed to you each year, your tax bracket for capital gains, etc. The point is that ETFs are more tax efficient structures, actually quantifying the incremental gain can't be done w/ much accuracy on an ex-ante basis.

Let me reverse the question to you. There is an incremental benefit, albeit relatively opaque, but what is the incremental cost that prevents you from switching?
post 1493082451 04-30-2017, 07:40 PM
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Lol at not investing in index funds
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post 1493084171 04-30-2017, 07:57 PM
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This thread riles me so much that I had to say something (albeit from a throwaway).

To OP, this will have a sorry ending. You are very very naive. You are underwriting risk for somebody and then not participating in any upside. What is the benefit to you, what is the end game? If it is building a track record then this is most definitely the wrong way to go about it.

Why are you buying stocks after they go ex dividend? What alpha do you think you will achieve? What is your treynor measure. You have been following a stock for 6 months, how does that help anyone?

I have been in the industry for 14 years, you are figuratively on the bottom rung of the ladder. At best you wont lose your friend a serious amount of money and you wont make enough to compensate for the risk you have taken. At worst you will end up owing him every single cent plus more.

I also suggest you read the ethics code of the CFA handbook.

You are living in lala land.

Proof:
imgur dot com /a/4FNKU
post 1493084541 04-30-2017, 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted By financeBrah100⏩
This thread riles me so much that I had to say something (albeit from a throwaway).

To OP, this will have a sorry ending. You are very very naive. You are underwriting risk for somebody and then not participating in any upside. What is the benefit to you, what is the end game? If it is building a track record then this is most definitely the wrong way to go about it.

Why are you buying stocks after they go ex dividend? What alpha do you think you will achieve? What is your treynor measure. You have been following a stock for 6 months, how does that help anyone?

I have been in the industry for 14 years, you are figuratively on the bottom rung of the ladder. At best you wont lose your friend a serious amount of money and you wont make enough to compensate for the risk you have taken. At worst you will end up owing him every single cent plus more.

I also suggest you read the ethics code of the CFA handbook.

You are living in lala land.

Proof:
imgur.com/a/4FNKU
rekt

http://i.imgur.com/FloM8R3.jpg
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post 1493085521 04-30-2017, 08:10 PM
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Just read the whole OP.

This is going to end badly. A regular index fund is highly likely to beat you.
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post 1493085981 04-30-2017, 08:14 PM
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op gonna learn the hard way not to mess with a man's money, when you get WOKE dead boyo.
I just want to share the knowledge I have obtained throughout my life and hopefully change someone's life.
post 1493109301 05-01-2017, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted By hoganrulz⏩
Question pasa muchacho?
You were saying you were going to profit 4-6% on an in play match 'barring a miracle'

Give me an example, real or imagined, of how you would do this. Because that is nonsense
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post 1493109581 05-01-2017, 01:41 AM
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#133
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Originally Posted By samsbolton⏩
You were saying you were going to profit 4-6% on an in play match 'barring a miracle'

Give me an example, real or imagined, of how you would do this. Because that is nonsense
tottenham v arsenal, 2-0, odds of 1.06 for tottenham to win. barring a miracle, go balls deep on it for 6% profit.
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post 1493111211 05-01-2017, 02:34 AM
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#134
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Originally Posted By hoganrulz⏩
tottenham v arsenal, 2-0, odds of 1.06 for tottenham to win. barring a miracle, go balls deep on it for 6% profit.
It just takes that one game of a Tottenham red card, an Arsenal penalty to make it 2-1 and then a quick ball over the top, taken on the chest, and drilled into the bottom right corner under the keeper to make it 2-2 and suddenly you've lost every penny.

What you're telling us to do in finance terms is called trading on margin. Never, and I mean ever, risk 100% of your stake in a single trade!
post 1493111291 05-01-2017, 02:37 AM
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Originally Posted By mp83⏩
Lol at not investing in index funds
I am looking to make 12-20% per year; not 12-20% over 5 years

Don't get me wrong, some of the money ($6000 i.e. 20% will go into funds, probably emerging markets for dat dere high risk high reward) but majority will be spread over 4-8 big trades of stocks that have bottomed out
post 1493111481 05-01-2017, 02:41 AM
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Originally Posted By WelshAutist⏩
It just takes that one game of a Tottenham red card, an Arsenal penalty to make it 2-1 and then a quick ball over the top, taken on the chest, and drilled into the bottom right corner under the keeper to make it 2-2 and suddenly you've lost every penny.

What you're telling us to do in finance terms is called trading on margin. Never, and I mean ever, risk 100% of your stake in a single trade!
risk and reward, also i see many correlations between stocks and shares trading and betting exchanges. you have to hedge, you cant bet it all at once, you need to draw out a plan on how much of your bankroll youre going to bet to clock target percentages of your bankroll.


plus as you very well know, its takes 10s of thousands to be able to effetively hedge, split your money and make consistent money.
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post 1493111991 05-01-2017, 02:53 AM
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Originally Posted By hoganrulz⏩
risk and reward, also i see many correlations between stocks and shares trading and betting exchanges. you have to hedge, you cant bet it all at once, you need to draw out a plan on how much of your bankroll youre going to bet to clock target percentages of your bankroll.


plus as you very well know, its takes 10s of thousands to be able to effetively hedge, split your money and make consistent money.
Liverpool three nil down in the European cup a few years ago. Millwall were. 3-1 up yesterday and Bristol equalised. In any case it should be pretty obvious that if it were that simple, pretty soon the people who were profiting doing that would erode their own margin to nothing (which is why the price you mentioned in the Tottenham game was realistic)
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post 1493112461 05-01-2017, 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted By samsbolton⏩
Liverpool three nil down in the European cup a few years ago. Millwall were. 3-1 up yesterday and Bristol equalised. In any case it should be pretty obvious that if it were that simple, pretty soon the people who were profiting doing that would erode their own margin to nothing (which is why the price you mentioned in the Tottenham game was realistic)
Brb putting my house on AC Milan to win CL final at half time when 3-0 up in 2005 to make 0.1%

Brb homeless 12 years later


Just lmao at comparing football betting to well-diversified stock market investing
post 1493112481 05-01-2017, 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted By samsbolton⏩
Liverpool three nil down in the European cup a few years ago. Millwall were. 3-1 up yesterday and Bristol equalised. In any case it should be pretty obvious that if it were that simple, pretty soon the people who were profiting doing that would erode their own margin to nothing (which is why the price you mentioned in the Tottenham game was realistic)
I agree completely, this is why I compare this kind not sports betting to stocks and shares, just the sheer amount of money needed to turn over a desired amount in cash terms because of the next to nothing margins, 1.02-1.06 is 2%-6%, where this may be ridiculous in betting terms, in terms of shares, that is massive, even if you're splitting your bank roll, 25% of 6% is still 1.25% which is still more than an ISA.

But to each there own. If didn't spend all my money on booger sugar and whores I know where it would be. Will be reporting back on the misc when I'm able to actually put this in to practice.

Have just bet sports the traditional way in the past.
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post 1493115761 05-01-2017, 04:42 AM
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#140
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Originally Posted By hoganrulz⏩
I agree completely, this is why I compare this kind not sports betting to stocks and shares, just the sheer amount of money needed to turn over a desired amount in cash terms because of the next to nothing margins, 1.02-1.06 is 2%-6%, where this may be ridiculous in betting terms, in terms of shares, that is massive, even if you're splitting your bank roll, 25% of 6% is still 1.25% which is still more than an ISA.

But to each there own. If didn't spend all my money on booger sugar and whores I know where it would be. Will be reporting back on the misc when I'm able to actually put this in to practice.

Have just bet sports the traditional way in the past.
You don't understand the concept at all sorry. 1.05 (as an example) is only worth an investment if the realistic odds are, say, 1.02 AND betfairs margin is less than the difference.

Their margin is actually quite complicated and not fixed because it's an exchange.. broadly speaking the more people are in each market, the tighter their margin is likely to be.
Having used betfair a lot, I am 99.9% certain their margin will wipe you out quicker than you think. It's the same in any trading environment and the reason so few people see an above average profit
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post 1493116091 05-01-2017, 04:52 AM
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Originally Posted By samsbolton⏩
You don't understand the concept at all sorry. 1.05 (as an example) is only worth an investment if the realistic odds are, say, 1.02 AND betfairs margin is less than the difference.

Their margin is actually quite complicated and not fixed because it's an exchange.. broadly speaking the more people are in each market, the tighter their margin is likely to be.
Having used betfair a lot, I am 99.9% certain their margin will wipe you out quicker than you think. It's the same in any trading environment and the reason so few people see an above average profit
you could very well be right, again ive only bet the traditional way on the sportsbook rather than the exchange, but i have seen tennis matches in dog chit countries in dog chit tourneys have 50k+ available to back favourites, in play, at 1.05 for example. And yes, i am aware the exchange takes 5% commission on the winnings on exchange profits.

again, this has not been done by me for any stretch of time, although I am aiming to do so within this year at some point with just a couple grand as i figure I could make a part time wage from it, and since none of it will be taxed, i get to keep it all. will be making a thread with bets and targets and so on and so forth when i have the funds available to do so.
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post 1493117311 05-01-2017, 05:24 AM
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Originally Posted By hoganrulz⏩
you could very well be right, again ive only bet the traditional way on the sportsbook rather than the exchange, but i have seen tennis matches in dog chit countries in dog chit tourneys have 50k+ available to back favourites, in play, at 1.05 for example. And yes, i am aware the exchange takes 5% commission on the winnings on exchange profits.

again, this has not been done by me for any stretch of time, although I am aiming to do so within this year at some point with just a couple grand as i figure I could make a part time wage from it, and since none of it will be taxed, i get to keep it all. will be making a thread with bets and targets and so on and so forth when i have the funds available to do so.
It's not 5%

It's 5% plus the price difference between the backers and layers in each market. If there is only 50k in the market that is going to be a significant number and well beyond any expected profit.

Trust me, this is for absolute mugs, just throw your money on the fire
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Originally Posted By samsbolton⏩
It's not 5%

It's 5% plus the price difference between the backers and layers in each market. If there is only 50k in the market that is going to be a significant number and well beyond any expected profit.

Trust me, this is for absolute mugs, just throw your money on the fire
I'll PM you a link to my shenanigans when I get this rolling bud. Gotta at least try!
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post 1493118241 05-01-2017, 05:45 AM
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Originally Posted By hoganrulz⏩
I'll PM you a link to my shenanigans when I get this rolling bud. Gotta at least try!
Put you efforts into something where there is a possibility of success. There are plenty of markets out there where you have an edge. I have just as much fun in the market i am in now as I ever had sports betting and at least for the time being it's very profitable.

These things are out there, just have to look
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post 1497240591 05-01-2017, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted By financeBrah100⏩
This thread riles me so much that I had to say something (albeit from a throwaway).

To OP, this will have a sorry ending. You are very very naive. You are underwriting risk for somebody and then not participating in any upside. What is the benefit to you, what is the end game? If it is building a track record then this is most definitely the wrong way to go about it.

Why are you buying stocks after they go ex dividend? What alpha do you think you will achieve? What is your treynor measure. You have been following a stock for 6 months, how does that help anyone?

I have been in the industry for 14 years, you are figuratively on the bottom rung of the ladder. At best you wont lose your friend a serious amount of money and you wont make enough to compensate for the risk you have taken. At worst you will end up owing him every single cent plus more.

I also suggest you read the ethics code of the CFA handbook.

You are living in lala land.

Proof:
imgur dot com /a/4FNKU
Said litterally no one ever lmao
post 1497260941 05-01-2017, 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted By ctownballer04⏩
I work in a research department at JPM does a bunch of research into the active vs passive debate. I'm not saying that the logic behind you argument is wrong, but what you said verbatim is incorrect. Far more than 1% of active equity managers outperform their benchmark over long time horizons. You are right in that the odds aren't good for the average joe to beat their bench over a long-term horizon, but it annoys me that everyone who knows the first thing about finance loves to emphasize that it's impossible and no one does it. I meet w/ people managing billions of dollars nearly every week that have outperformed over horizons in excess of 10 years.

In a simplistic example, the average performance gross of fees for all of active will equal the market, so on average active will under perform net of fees. However, active v passive is also a cyclical thing. There are time periods where very few active PMs outperform and then periods where many more outperform. For example, since the election, active is actually done quite well w/ a huge spike in outperformance relative to the past few years. Active has gotten crushed over the past decade as but we are approaching the longest running bull market in our countries history, and it's hard to outperform when stocks just move in one direction.

This is strictly in regards to active vs passive in the US Equity space. Active is far more compelling in less efficient markets such as EM equities, EM debt, high yield debt, etc.






Would love this example of me embarrassing myself lol? I made a cheeky comment about mutual funds being chit. Your investment is fine, but I still don't understand it. You have picked the best mutual fund provider, but I still don't understand why you wouldn't take the product that is slightly better? I agree that it isn't super material in the case of Vanguard, but the ETF structure is objectively more efficient on taxes.
Originally Posted By ctownballer04⏩
We are still on different pages; it is better for you.

Mutual funds incur capital gains/losses when they have to liquidate holdings for redemption purposes (this is independent of you). Since they are pass through entities you pay taxes on this every year regardless if you are trading or not (mutual fund incurs taxes from their trades that get passed to you). So yes, unless your mutual fund is in a tax exempt or tax deferred account, than this tax bill costs you money relative to an ETF where it wouldn't be incurred (in-kind transfers aren't taxable events in the case of ETFs). This is why ETFs are more tax efficient than mutual funds in general.
I'm following this talk, and repped you Ctown baller so you'd see this. Lucifer seems to think a lot like me.


I do majority mutual funds vs ETFs because Vanguard offers the admiral share which is usually either the same ER as an ETF, or sometimes slightly even better.

Make the case for me to buy more ETFs in the future?

Also, you'd really suggest I put money into active mutual funds that I think might outperform market than what I do now which is sort of the lazy 3 fund portfolio? (Total US dominant, total INTL, and a tiny bit of BND)
post 1497261191 05-01-2017, 11:13 PM
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Originally Posted By Luc1fer⏩
He is guaranteeing 5% to the dentist though. So the dentist has no risk from a market crash or dip - not a bad deal actually.

Just don't think I'd trust OP to pay me in that event, I'd need a contract in writing.
If the OP could somehow offer me a real guarantee, I'd be in. Doubt any safe feeling guarantee could actually be written though.
Originally Posted By ctownballer04⏩
I'm saying you will pay more in the long-run via taxes due to the increased trading which is a byproduct of the structure. Of course I'm being vague because it's not like it's an expense ratio where I can just say it'll add 1 bp/year in costs. It depends on the cost basis of the underlying, the gains passed to you each year, your tax bracket for capital gains, etc. The point is that ETFs are more tax efficient structures, actually quantifying the incremental gain can't be done w/ much accuracy on an ex-ante basis.

Let me reverse the question to you. There is an incremental benefit, albeit relatively opaque, but what is the incremental cost that prevents you from switching?
If I were Luc1fer, my answer would be that sometimes admiral shares via Vanguard actually have a lower expense ration than ETFs.

See VTSAX and VTIAX, unless they recently changed, one of them (forget which) had a slightly better ER than VTI and VXUS, which are the ETF equivalents.
post 1497261491 05-01-2017, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted By WelshAutist⏩
Brb putting my house on AC Milan to win CL final at half time when 3-0 up in 2005 to make 0.1%

Brb homeless 12 years later


Just lmao at comparing football betting to well-diversified stock market investing
Welsh are you a fan of fundamental or technical analysis? Look for an insight into your method of investing
post 1503309871 05-03-2017, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted By BigAlBrah⏩
Welsh are you a fan of fundamental or technical analysis? Look for an insight into your method of investing
I combine as much information as I can but ultimately I make the decision with my head.

As someone who sits patiently and meticulously follow the bottoming out of stocks, I have a keen interest on moving averages, bollinger bands, year high vs low, but at the same time I deeply read into report announcements, look at ex-div dates, understand P/E ratios and EPS and combined with broker forecasts and trades by volume, I have a lot of information to see when the "bottom" is stagnating and the potential I can get from a stock.

That's how I choose my entry and exit points. It sounds like a lot of effort, and in a way it is. But I am only doing this for maybe 8 stocks a year so it's not too bad.

This is how I pick 100% of 'winners'
post 1503310031 05-03-2017, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted By Luc1fer⏩
He is guaranteeing 5% to the dentist though. So the dentist has no risk from a market crash or dip - not a bad deal actually.

Just don't think I'd trust OP to pay me in that event, I'd need a contract in writing.
I am guaranteeing 5% up to a certain limit. A limit which I can afford to lose.

This is my best friend since childhood, if something went wrong, ofcourse I would pay him.

But I wholeheartedly back myself to make 12-20% therefore it's a win-win all round!
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