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Forum » MISC Crypto Crew (MCC) Vol.4: Bitcoin Wars Episode IV: Revenge of the Core
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Thread: MISC Crypto Crew (MCC) Vol.4: Bitcoin Wars Episode IV: Revenge of the Core

post 1536767671 12-06-2017, 10:07 PM
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#7591
  1. DavidL913
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Originally Posted By FatalTragedy12⏩
If anything is going to get wrecked, it'll be BTC. The futures market probably won't even hedge on anything apart from BTC initially because they have the greatest chance of shorting it and making mega bucks.

They don't want to short small fries like XLM, IOTA or LTC (yet).

Great article from the Financial Times:

"One of the greatest shorting opportunities ever': Hedge funds ready to bet against Bitcoin"http://business.financialpost.com/in...inst-bitcoin-1
It's going to be a very interesting time indeed.

It's going to be a battlefield with tons of blood everywhere.

higher volatility most likely.

Some unexpected things may be happening too.
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post 1536767751 12-06-2017, 10:08 PM
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#7592
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Originally Posted By FatalTragedy12⏩
If anything is going to get wrecked, it'll be BTC. The futures market probably won't even hedge on anything apart from BTC initially because they have the greatest chance of shorting it and making mega bucks.

They don't want or need to short small fries like XLM, IOTA or LTC (yet) or they will die after the BTC panic begins involuntarily (if they manage to short it).

Great article from the Financial Times:

"One of the greatest shorting opportunities ever': Hedge funds ready to bet against Bitcoin"http://business.financialpost.com/in...inst-bitcoin-1
Agreed but I still think it’s going to pump for the next few days still
post 1536767841 12-06-2017, 10:08 PM
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#7593
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Originally Posted By Dota2Brah⏩
holy chit imagine if the corporate world spends millions to spread FUD then shorts BTC
They don't need FUD to short it, they just need sh*t tons of money to heavily bet against it with their big Reptilian banker Chad wallets.

It's similar to the financial crash of 2009 - what caused it? ONE GUY (Michael Burry) in from a small capital investment fund (Scion Capital) hedged against the housing market and shorted the whole world. This article explains:

http://business.financialpost.com/in...inst-bitcoin-1
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post 1536768081 12-06-2017, 10:12 PM
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#7594
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Originally Posted By DavidL913⏩
wanna explain why it will moon?

Your last few post have been nothing but buy these other coins.

Shilling the fuk out of coins so you can get rid of your bags?

who the fuk are u ?

gtfo

EDIT:

you're telling ppl to hold these coins as if you know the market will do in whatever time frame. Some newb will read this and buy out of pure ignorance.

moron
Research these coins. They are not sh!t coins at all, GRS has news coming so its good for temp gains. DRGN on the other hand has a great team, backed by Disney.

Not bad picks at all. DRGN I guarantee will moon soon.
post 1536768201 12-06-2017, 10:14 PM
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#7595
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Originally Posted By Chargr⏩
Research these coins. They are not sh!t coins at all, GRS has news coming so its good for temp gains. DRGN on the other hand has a great team, backed by Disney.

Not bad picks at all. DRGN I guarantee will moon soon.
ive been thinking about drgn.. how high do you think it could (potentially) moon?

i guess my deal is im not too sure on the idea, but it will undoubtedly move some because of the disney link
post 1536768271 12-06-2017, 10:15 PM
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#7596
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Originally Posted By iifymbro⏩
A whale donated $500k in btc to Andreas after that tweet
Wow I honestly can't think of anything I care less about than drama in the crypto community.
post 1536768401 12-06-2017, 10:16 PM
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#7597
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Originally Posted By Beauuu⏩
Wow I honestly can't think of anything I care less about than drama in the crypto community.
Brah, the developers is why BTC/crypto exists. This is why Satoshi is a god in most crypto traders eyes.
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post 1536768641 12-06-2017, 10:19 PM
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#7598
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Originally Posted By FatalTragedy12⏩
Brah, the developers is why BTC/crypto exists. This is why Satoshi is a god in most crypto traders eyes.
We're here to make money, not talk about developers' feelings and have pity parties. Time and information is of the essence.
post 1536768701 12-06-2017, 10:20 PM
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#7599
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Originally Posted By Beauuu⏩
We're here to make money, not talk about developers' feelings and have pity parties. Time and information is of the essence.
Yeah, but spare a thought for the people who made it possible for you to make money on this.

In other news: Ripple almost back to 4th place market cap, ousting IOTA - IOTA probably shat on due to BTC's fourth push today to stabilise at 14K and will go back up. Hold on tight brahs.
*Misc Surgeon*--*Admin neg survivor*

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post 1536768751 12-06-2017, 10:20 PM
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#7600
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Originally Posted By DoesNotLie⏩
stop what? it went up 2X, made prediction earlier when price was low, obviously not buy high sell low, you n00b.
Mana is garbage but it has skyrocketed so is a good call.

Brb 2 person team, where none have VR or game design experience yet trying to build a huge virtual reality world.
post 1536768761 12-06-2017, 10:20 PM
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I do think Wall St traders will continue to run BTC up until they can short futures. They might be clever and keep the bull run going for a few days after the 10th.
𝕮𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖈𝖍𝖊𝖈𝕶, 𝖓𝖊𝖛𝖊𝖗 𝖈𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖇𝖎𝖙𝖈𝖍

█▓▒▒░░🧵Make trolls invisible: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=180234573 ░░▒▒▓█
post 1536769021 12-06-2017, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted By Mythenthefang⏩
How to manipulate the BTC market when the futures are cash settled?

Exchanges will quote prices based on market price of actual BTC trades

Reptilian bankers can rip off geriatric baby boomers all they want with futures contracts that are merely gambling on price changes

We won
Pretty much exactly right, these are cash settled, no underlying assets held on either side. It will have virtually 0 impact on the BTC market. It's really only a positive thing for the BTC markets, it legitimizes BTC as an asset. There contracts are also capped at 20% either way. I can't see many people wanting to bet against that, it make no economic sense at this point.
Originally Posted By FatalTragedy12⏩
The market is manipulated on the basis of future predictions.

It’s kind of how a betting agency/Las Vegas odds gives credibility to a boxing fights outcome and how you’d bet on it. Not that it would influence how the fight goes but in the case of a cash market it influences people’s decisions to pump or dump.

In a cash market, the bulls hold all the power - especially in crypto where you can use sell walls etc. The futures market gives equal power to the bears and the little fish.
I'm not sure what your logic is here, but market manipulation through futures is quite a difficult thing in a BTC market. Here are some reasons why

1. Most BTC is held by a small % at the top. You can see in the link below that 55% of people own .001 BTC or less. In fact 97% of people have less than 1 BTC.
What this means is that the majority of people have basically 0 influence on the market. Any manipulation would have to occur at the top. This is speculation and i have no data to support this, however, I would suggest most people at the top have held for a very very long time. Given insto's have no mandate to actually buy or sell BTC at the present time, as their licenses do not allow it, you have to convince these individuals to panic sell their holdings. This is a very very tall task. We are potentially talking about people who have riden an emotional and eventful wave from back near 2011. There is negative news and scares daily in the media, why all of a sudden do you think they would sell?

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-ri...addresses.html

2. BTC is worth 240 billion dollars. Insto's trade literally trillions of dollars every day. They also rig interest rates, control the flow of bonds, stocks, dark pools etc. Why the hell would they care about a 260 billon dollar market? That is not enough for a single Insto to bother playing with. If they were able to pick up some shorts or panic sells one way or the other, it would not be enough money for them to worry about.

3. BTC is not easily tradeable. It's virtually impossible to arbitrage. The Insto's have no control of the network or the Exchanges, how are they going to move money quick enough to take advantage of panic buys or sells? The ledger only updates every 3 minutes on the blocks, and as it gets busier this may slow even more. This presents significant risk to them further adding weight to the fact this is not a good market for them to play in.

4. There will be very little liquidity in these futures markets for sellers. The only people want to bet against BTC will be miners who want to hedge their costs, knowing that more than likely the price will go up. If it doesn't they can only cover themselves for 20% of the loss. Everyone else will be long who can't work out how to get into BTC but what some sort of slice.

For there to be any kind of opportunity to manipulate this market, the market would have to be far larger, far more efficient trading wise, and have more liquidity.
post 1536769191 12-06-2017, 10:25 PM
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#7603
  1. nick1990
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Originally Posted By Chargr⏩
Research these coins. They are not sh!t coins at all, GRS has news coming so its good for temp gains. DRGN on the other hand has a great team, backed by Disney.

Not bad picks at all. DRGN I guarantee will moon soon.
Drgn is no longer affiliated with Disney at all. Their website says it was started at Disney and then “outsourced”, aka abandoned.
They also have the cheapest looking website I’ve ever seen.

Not saying it won’t Moon, but Jesus Christ, if there were ever a more ambiguous and cheap look coin, it’s drgn

Care to provide some insight as to why you think it will Moon?
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post 1536769231 12-06-2017, 10:26 PM
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#7604
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Originally Posted By lukeaye⏩
I'm not sure what you logic is here, but market manipulation through futures is quite a difficult thing in a BTC market. Here are some reasons why

1. Most BTC is held by a small % at the top. You can see there that 55% of people own .001 BTC or less. In fact 97% of people have less than 1 BTC.
...
It doesn't matter who holds the funds when a futures market is involved, apparently, because it moves the entire market - whales and all.

I don't think I can do a better job of paraphrasing this article so please have a read if you get a chance:

"Make Way For A New Kind Of Whale"- CoinDesk, Dec 5 2017
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-fut...ew-kind-whale/
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post 1536769461 12-06-2017, 10:29 PM
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#7605
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Originally Posted By Chargr⏩
Research these coins. They are not sh!t coins at all, GRS has news coming so its good for temp gains. DRGN on the other hand has a great team, backed by Disney.

Not bad picks at all. DRGN I guarantee will moon soon.
I'm in DRGN too..It was originally a Disney project a while ago. Even though it's been picked up again, it's not backed by Disney.
post 1536769621 12-06-2017, 10:32 PM
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#7606
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Originally Posted By lukeaye⏩
Pretty much exactly right, these are cash settled, no underlying assets held on either side. It will have virtually 0 impact on the BTC market. It's really only a positive thing for the BTC markets, it legitimizes BTC as an asset. There contracts are also capped at 20% either way. I can't see many people wanting to bet against that, it make no economic sense at this point.



I'm not sure what your logic is here, but market manipulation through futures is quite a difficult thing in a BTC market. Here are some reasons why

1. Most BTC is held by a small % at the top. You can see in the link below that 55% of people own .001 BTC or less. In fact 97% of people have less than 1 BTC.
What this means is that the majority of people have basically 0 influence on the market. Any manipulation would have to occur at the top. This is speculation and i have no data to support this, however, I would suggest most people at the top have held for a very very long time. Given insto's have no mandate to actually buy or sell BTC at the present time, as their licenses do not allow it, you have to convince these individuals to panic sell their holdings. This is a very very tall task. We are potentially talking about people who have riden an emotional and eventful wave from back near 2011. There is negative news and scares daily in the media, why all of a sudden do you think they would sell?

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-ri...addresses.html

2. BTC is worth 240 billion dollars. Insto's trade literally trillions of dollars every day. They also rig interest rates, control the flow of bonds, stocks, dark pools etc. Why the hell would they care about a 260 billon dollar market? That is not enough for a single Insto to bother playing with. If they were able to pick up some shorts or panic sells one way or the other, it would not be enough money for them to worry about.

3. BTC is not easily tradeable. It's virtually impossible to arbitrage. The Insto's have no control of the network or the Exchanges, how are they going to move money quick enough to take advantage of panic buys or sells? The ledger only updates every 3 minutes on the blocks, and as it gets busier this may slow even more. This presents significant risk to them further adding weight to the fact this is not a good market for them to play in.

4. There will be very little liquidity in these futures markets for sellers. The only people want to bet against BTC will be miners who want to hedge their costs, knowing that more than likely the price will go up. If it doesn't they can only cover themselves for 20% of the loss. Everyone else will be long who can't work out how to get into BTC but what some sort of slice.

For there to be any kind of opportunity to manipulate this market, the market would have to be far larger, far more efficient trading wise, and have more liquidity.
Wallstreet vs Korea

who wins?
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post 1536769801 12-06-2017, 10:35 PM
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#7607
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Originally Posted By KillahJon⏩
I'm in DRGN too..It was originally a Disney project a while ago. Even though it's been picked up again, it's not backed by Disney.
Any particular reason you got in?
Seems very “hokey” to me after reading up on it a bit
Their website is very ambiguous and doesn’t really give a timeline of the project, nor does it really tell you much about what it does...
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post 1536769901 12-06-2017, 10:37 PM
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#7608
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Originally Posted By FatalTragedy12⏩
It doesn't matter who holds the funds when a futures market is involved, apparently, because it moves the entire market - whales and all.

I don't think I can do a better job of paraphrasing this article so please have a read if you get a chance:

"Make Way For A New Kind Of Whale"- CoinDesk, Dec 5 2017
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-fut...ew-kind-whale/
That article provides no insight other than talking about how traditional futures markets work on commodities and other assets. I already know that. So does everyone else.

My question is

WHY

Why would the market all of a sudden drop? If you are going to make money on the downside you need to make the market drop. How is an Insto going to do that? They have already tried scaring everyone out with comparisons to the tech boom and Tulips. They have rubbished BTC for the last 10 years. People who hold significant sums of BTC represent 97% of the market.

If they have made over 1000% on their holdings, and have been exposed to all this negative media, why would theyNOWdecide to sell? That's the only way you get the market to drop.

There is not going to be sufficient enough liquidity in the futures market, as a cash settled instrument, to lead the asset market.

So explain that to me.
post 1536770221 12-06-2017, 10:43 PM
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patience for WISH
post 1536770421 12-06-2017, 10:47 PM
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#7610
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Originally Posted By lukeaye⏩
That article provides no insight other than talking about how traditional futures markets work on commodities and other assets. I already know that. So does everyone else.

My question is

WHY

Why would the market all of a sudden drop? If you are going to make money on the downside you need to make the market drop. How is an Insto going to do that? They have already tried scaring everyone out with comparisons to the tech boom and Tulips. They have rubbished BTC for the last 10 years. People who hold significant sums of BTC represent 3% of the market.

If they have made over 100% on their holdings, and have been exposed to all this negative media, why would theyNOWdecide to sell? That's the only way you get the market to drop.

There is not going to be sufficient enough liquidity in the futures market, as a cash settled instrument, to lead the asset market.

So explain that to me.
I think the article explains this quite well. I think the issue you're having is you're associating the futures market with FUD. This is not FUD, this is real big dick billions of dollars money. When you hedge against something, you're issuing a futures contract against that asset at the risk of losing that money. The balance in the market is achieved by people who betforit - the only people who have much to gain from that are holders or miners. Low denomination BTC owners (bears) do not benefit by helping the whales along and would want to accumulate more BTC.

This influences the entire market, because like the cash market - futures putmoneyon the line. No real trader would even let $1 pass their fingers, let alone $1m even if their trading volume is in the trillions. When a potential investor sees this and sees BTC is in the sh*t, they choose not to invest whereas right now they see a exponential runaway train graph on the cash market. The whales sell walls don't mean sh*t anymore all of a sudden because nobody is lapping up their sell orders.

That is why.
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post 1536770561 12-06-2017, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted By DavidL913⏩
Wallstreet vs Korea

who wins?
I have no idea what percentage of the market is Korean, they pay crazy prices for their BTC, but I would have no reason to believe they hold a more significant chunk Value wise than major players from anywhere else in the world.

You will probably find most of the volume at the top is cold wallets or hot wallets for exchanges, early adopters, BTC core team members, and some possibly some new big players with lots of money to spend.
post 1536770601 12-06-2017, 10:50 PM
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#7612
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Originally Posted By DavidL913⏩
conference is tomorrow.

If u don't feel comfortable, just lighten up your stack.

with the last SWELL conference with XRP, it was going up because of the hype. Then dramatically sold off. Be weary.
conference is already over. it's the 7th in korea already. no announcement the spike up was because of that then no announcement and terrible interview.
post 1536770741 12-06-2017, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted By lukeaye⏩
That article provides no insight other than talking about how traditional futures markets work on commodities and other assets. I already know that. So does everyone else.

My question is

WHY

Why would the market all of a sudden drop? If you are going to make money on the downside you need to make the market drop. How is an Insto going to do that? They have already tried scaring everyone out with comparisons to the tech boom and Tulips. They have rubbished BTC for the last 10 years. People who hold significant sums of BTC represent 97% of the market.

If they have made over 1000% on their holdings, and have been exposed to all this negative media, why would theyNOWdecide to sell? That's the only way you get the market to drop.

There is not going to be sufficient enough liquidity in the futures market, as a cash settled instrument, to lead the asset market.

So explain that to me.
Just my theory of why it might tank after futures(tinfoil hat on). Maybe the reason BTC soared from $3k to $14k at the insane rate it has is that the banker elites themselves were purchasing/pumping the price with their unlimited funds, and now they will "bet" on lower prices on futures as they systematically cash out and reach the prices they bet on, doubling all profits and being able to have the media say "see it was a bubble", as it all comes crashing down.
post 1536770981 12-06-2017, 10:57 PM
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there it is boyos... 400m market cap
Death is impossible for us to fathom: it is so immense, so frightening, that we will do almost anything to avoid thinking about it. Society is organized to make death invisible, to keep it several steps removed. That distance may seem necessary for our comfort, but it comes with a terrible price: the illusion of limitless time, and a consequent lack of seriousness about daily life. We are running away from the one reality that faces us all.
post 1536771121 12-06-2017, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted By BostonRockets⏩
there it is boyos... 400m market cap
You mean 400 billion. $400,038,642,214.
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post 1536771131 12-06-2017, 10:59 PM
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too much crypto for today
post 1536771221 12-06-2017, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted By FatalTragedy12⏩
I think the article explains this quite well. I think the issue you're having is you're associating the futures market with FUD. This is not FUD, this is real big dick billions of dollars money. When you hedge against something, you're issuing a futures contract against that asset at the risk of losing that money. The balance in the market is achieved by people who betforit - the only people who have much to gain from that are holders or miners. Low denomination BTC owners (bears) do not benefit by helping the whales along and would want to accumulate more BTC.

This influences the entire market, because like the cash market - futures putmoneyon the line. No real trader would even let $1 pass their fingers, let alone $1m even if their trading volume is in the trillions. When a potential investor sees this and sees BTC is in the sh*t, they choose not to invest. The whales sell walls don't mean sh*t anymore all of a sudden because nobody is lapping up their sell orders.

That is why.
I'm still no clearer on why you think that means price are more likely to go lower. Or anyone else for that matter. Taking a hedge against your position dropping does not equal the underlying market dropping. No market maker is going to short a BTC if they can't hold it at the same time. If they did, and BTC continued higher, which is the current trend, they are exposing themselves to massive massive losses.

This ultimately leads to more buying of BTC. And given sentiment is so positive and has been for so long, this will only drive prices higher. Small time futures markets are not going to put downward pressure on the underlying market.

For some reason you think futures will lead the underlying market, that is not how it works. The underlying assets influences the futures market based on a number of factors. Expected future price, growth rates, cost of capital, time etc. This comes from the underlying market, not the other way around.
post 1536771271 12-06-2017, 11:01 PM
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#7618
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Originally Posted By Seeker47⏩
Just my theory of why it might tank after futures(tinfoil hat on). Maybe the reason BTC soared from $3k to $14k at the insane rate it has is that the banker elites themselves were purchasing/pumping the price with their unlimited funds, and now they will "bet" on lower prices on futures as they systematically cash out and reach the prices they bet on, doubling all profits and being able to have the media say "see it was a bubble", as it all comes crashing down.
Likely

Only way they can fight it without screwing themselves

They lose anyway

Where to put buy order in on iota/eth :\ looks like to have suffered quite a correction/consolidation
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post 1536771451 12-06-2017, 11:03 PM
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#7619
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Originally Posted By lukeaye⏩
I'm still no clearer on why you think that means price are more likely to go lower. Or anyone else for that matter. Taking a hedge against your position dropping does not equal the underlying market dropping. No market maker is going to short a BTC if they can't hold it at the same time. If they did, and BTC continued higher, which is the current trend, they are exposing themselves to massive massive losses.

This ultimately leads to more buying of BTC. And given sentiment is so positive and has been for so long, this will only drive prices higher. Small time futures markets are not going to put downward pressure on the underlying market.

For some reason you think futures will lead the underlying market, that is not how it works. The underlying assets influences the futures market based on a number of factors. Expected future price, growth rates, cost of capital, time etc. This comes from the underlying market, not the other way around.
You might be right, I'm just regurgitating common themes I've read in multiple financial articles on CME. I personally believe/d the cash market influenced futures as well, but not when something was being shorted artificially.
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post 1536771651 12-06-2017, 11:07 PM
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#7620
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Originally Posted By Mythenthefang⏩
Likely

Only way they can fight it without screwing themselves

They lose anyway

Where to put buy order in on iota/eth :\ looks like to have suffered quite a correction/consolidation
Bitfinex has that trading pair. I'm personally out as soon as this sh*t goes back to $4.3. I can't take it anymore. F*ck the Tangle.

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