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Thread: The Stock Market

post 1543150261 02-07-2018, 08:49 PM
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#271
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
Even better returns than the funds Bernie Madoff managed!!
Once again, those fake returns are only impressive because of the AUM. Warren Buffett GUARANTEES he can make a 50% annualized return on $10 million. Does that make him crazy? Of course not, because he knows several other people who can do it too. It's not uncommon in this industry and you're making it out as if it is. And none of you answered my question why hedge fund managers return 120%+ on the "simulations" when their funds only return 9 or 10% over the same period.
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post 1543201111 02-08-2018, 11:45 AM
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#272
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
Once again, those fake returns are only impressive because of the AUM. Warren Buffett GUARANTEES he can make a 50% annualized return on $10 million. Does that make him crazy? Of course not, because he knows several other people who can do it too. It's not uncommon in this industry and you're making it out as if it is. And none of you answered my question why hedge fund managers return 120%+ on the "simulations" when their funds only return 9 or 10% over the same period.
So because the Oracle of Omaha claims he can do it... We are suppose to believe you can do it.... GTFO

He is unique because people actually invest in an investment because he invested in the investment thus driving up the price...

Unless you have a parade of investors following your movements and investing in what you do just not gonna happen... If you are this confident in your abilities you should max every piece of loan you can get and invest it. You will be a multi-millionaire in no time.
post 1543203761 02-08-2018, 12:11 PM
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#273
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
So because the Oracle of Omaha claims he can do it... We are suppose to believe you can do it.... GTFO

He is unique because people actually invest in an investment because he invested in the investment thus driving up the price...

Unless you have a parade of investors following your movements and investing in what you do just not gonna happen... If you are this confident in your abilities you should max every piece of loan you can get and invest it. You will be a multi-millionaire in no time.
Look, I'm not going to keep arguing with people who don't understand the industry. And I cannot just max out my credit cards. I already have over $1 million in investments, but I cannot trade as I would like to due to a lot of in house regulations here. Could I just leave and manage my own money for the rest of my life? Of course I could. I know many analysts and PMs in my position who did that exact same thing. Do they all return 50%? No... some probably 35% or 40%... some maybe only average 20-25%. Can I guarantee 50% annualized returns like Buffett? No, I most definitely cannot. However, I know I can generate alpha and come pretty close to 50%. And it's OK if you guys don't believe me - I don't really expect you all to. But please don't pretend that there aren't people on Wall Street who cannot generate annualized returns of 50%. Like I said, when analysts, PMs and hedge fund managers play your simulation games they return high double to low triple digit returns, but their funds only return single digits. It's a lot different managing your portfolio of $1 million in securities (with $1 million in the bank) as opposed to a $10 billion hedge fund.
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post 1543206461 02-08-2018, 12:40 PM
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#274
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
Look, I'm not going to keep arguing with people who don't understand the industry. And I cannot just max out my credit cards. I already have over $1 million in investments, but I cannot trade as I would like to due to a lot of in house regulations here. Could I just leave and manage my own money for the rest of my life? Of course I could. I know many analysts and PMs in my position who did that exact same thing. Do they all return 50%? No... some probably 35% or 40%... some maybe only average 20-25%. Can I guarantee 50% annualized returns like Buffett? No, I most definitely cannot. However, I know I can generate alpha and come pretty close to 50%. And it's OK if you guys don't believe me - I don't really expect you all to. But please don't pretend that there aren't people on Wall Street who cannot generate annualized returns of 50%. Like I said, when analysts, PMs and hedge fund managers play your simulation games they return high double to low triple digit returns, but their funds only return single digits. It's a lot different managing your portfolio of $1 million in securities (with $1 million in the bank) as opposed to a $10 billion hedge fund.
I'm sorry, I'm going to call bullsh!t on this. We're meant to believe that:

* you have over $1,000,000 in investments
* you have a foolproof method to gain 45-50% annual returns on your investments
* you are in a situation with 'in house regulations' that's preventing you from realizing these gains
* you won't leave that situation for reasons unknown
* you're sharing all of this on a bodybuilding forum


even if you only hit 40% per year you could turn that 1MM into over $100MM in less than 15 years, but those pesky 'in house regulations' at the place you can't leave are preventing you?

are you working for the mob or something where they'll kill you if you leave? what would possibly possess you to stay in a situation that will cost you $100,000,000 of unrealized profits?
It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

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post 1543207491 02-08-2018, 12:49 PM
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Y’all just read between the lines...




post 1543208201 02-08-2018, 12:55 PM
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#276
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
I'm sorry, I'm going to call bullsh!t on this. We're meant to believe that:

* you have over $1,000,000 in investments
* you have a foolproof method to gain 45-50% annual returns on your investments
* you are in a situation with 'in house regulations' that's preventing you from realizing these gains
* you won't leave that situation for reasons unknown
* you're sharing all of this on a bodybuilding forum


even if you only hit 40% per year you could turn that 1MM into over $100MM in less than 15 years, but those pesky 'in house regulations' at the place you can't leave are preventing you?

are you working for the mob or something where they'll kill you if you leave? what would possibly possess you to stay in a situation that will cost you $100,000,000 of unrealized profits?
Here we go AGAIN... You're compounding those returns. Stop doing that. I cannot invest $75 million into the micro cap space like I can $1 million. There is a reason I specifically said $1 million over 5 years. If I can do it on the scale you claim then I would quit my job tomorrow. Buffett said he can do it with $10 million.... I might be able to do that but I wouldn't be as confident.

Please stop trying to rearrange my words. If you don't believe me that's fine... I really don't blame your skepticism. But stop trying to lie about what I said to prove your point.
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post 1543209691 02-08-2018, 01:07 PM
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And FYI I don't work for the mob. I work in investment management - duh.
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post 1543210791 02-08-2018, 01:15 PM
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I think at this point we should turn this into one of those threads where we post pics to prove our wealthy, ban bets, PayPal side bets, the whole deal.

Maybe invite testi and lawstud etc.

We need some more chit talk though
post 1543211221 02-08-2018, 01:20 PM
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#279
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
I think at this point we should turn this into one of those threads where we post pics to prove our wealthy, ban bets, PayPal side bets, the whole deal.

Maybe invite testi and lawstud etc.

We need some more chit talk though
Haha.. honestly, I don't care that you guys don't believe me. Like I said, I actually understand the skepticism. But I don't appreciate it when they lie about what I said to prove their point - that's the only thing that got under my skin.
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post 1543211681 02-08-2018, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
I'm sorry, I'm going to call bullsh!t on this. We're meant to believe that:

* you have over $1,000,000 in investments
* you have a foolproof method to gain 45-50% annual returns on your investments
* you are in a situation with 'in house regulations' that's preventing you from realizing these gains
* you won't leave that situation for reasons unknown
* you're sharing all of this on a bodybuilding forum


even if you only hit 40% per year you could turn that 1MM into over $100MM in less than 15 years, but those pesky 'in house regulations' at the place you can't leave are preventing you?

are you working for the mob or something where they'll kill you if you leave? what would possibly possess you to stay in a situation that will cost you $100,000,000 of unrealized profits?
How dare you Question the Oracle of the R and P. Why would someone just go onto the internet and lie?

Guaranteed gains of 30+ percent year after year and are common in the industry... Just sucks that all these people have regulations from proving that they ever did it...
Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
Haha.. honestly, I don't care that you guys don't believe me. Like I said, I actually understand the skepticism. But I don't appreciate it when they lie about what I said to prove their point - that's the only thing that got under my skin.
If you didn't e-stat out your ass people might take you seriously... Right now you are just a joke, but it is funny so continue on.
post 1543212451 02-08-2018, 01:31 PM
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#281
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There are funds which cap their inflows just so they can stay nimble, so it's a thing that exists in the marketplace, however they don't make double digit returns year in year out.

Fact is someone investing their own 1MIO who has the skills and is prepared to take risks that they absolutely cannot take with investors' money, risks such as leveraging with futures and options or not diversifying beyond a few hot stocks can get higher returns, potentially much higher returns.

In a good year they will decimate their institutional returns, and maybe overall they will average a better return but in a bad year they will get crushed because of the risks that they take.

This is a far cry from claiming to be able to consistently out-perform the market by an average of 35% or even 15%. That seems...dubious.
"A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand."
post 1543212581 02-08-2018, 01:33 PM
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#282
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
How dare you Question the Oracle of the R and P. Why would someone just go onto the internet and lie?

Guaranteed gains of 30+ percent year after year and are common in the industry... Just sucks that all these people have regulations from proving that they ever did it...



If you didn't e-stat out your ass people might take you seriously... Right now you are just a joke, but it is funny so continue on.
It doesn't really matter. You would claim that Tepper, Einhorn, Ackman, etc. couldn't generate those returns on $1 million (which of course they can - they've already proved they can outside of their funds, as well as many of their analysts and PMs), so you're definitely not going to believe I could. Like I said, to not believe I can generate those returns is normal. This is a forum and I can be a janitor at a school somewhere. But to not believe many of the hedge fund managers and several of their employees out there cannot generate those kind of returns is pretty naive and shows that you really haven't spent any time on the buy side.
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post 1543213411 02-08-2018, 01:43 PM
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#283
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Originally Posted By Mr
There are funds which cap their inflows just so they can stay nimble, so it's a thing that exists in the marketplace, however they don't make double digit returns year in year out.

Fact is someone investing their own 1MIO who has the skills and is prepared to take risks that they absolutely cannot take with investors' money, risks such as leveraging with futures and options or not diversifying beyond a few hot stocks can get higher returns, potentially much higher returns.

In a good year they will decimate their institutional returns, and maybe overall they will average a better return but in a bad year they will get crushed because of the risks that they take.

This is a far cry from claiming to be able to consistently out-perform the market by an average of 35% or even 15%. That seems...dubious.
That is correct. Keep in mind, I never said I can consistently outperform the market every year. But I believe I can generate annualized returns of about 50% over 5 years. Can I guarantee it? No... maybe it'll 40%... maybe even 30%... but I believe I can get to around the 50% range. There are always risks, so nobody should ever guarantee it. Even some of the best investors have been duped into some of the worst investments - it happens. But let's be realistic. Over the long haul, the hedge fund managers today would decimate the S&P, Dow, or whatever benchmark you want to use if they only had to invest $1 million. And I truly mean decimate it.
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post 1543213651 02-08-2018, 01:45 PM
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#284
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Originally Posted By Mr
There are funds which cap their inflows just so they can stay nimble, so it's a thing that exists in the marketplace, however they don't make double digit returns year in year out.

Fact is someone investing their own 1MIO who has the skills and is prepared to take risks that they absolutely cannot take with investors' money, risks such as not diversifying and leveraging with futures and options, can get higher returns, potentially much higher returns.

In a good year they will decimate their institutional returns, and maybe overall they will average a better return but in a bad year they will get crushed because of the risks that they take.

This is a far cry from claiming to be able to consistently out-perform the market by an average of 35% or even 15%. That seems...dubious.
B I N G O

Had he said I am managing to beat X micro index by 3% with out increasing its variance... I would have said sure very possible.
If he had said he is managing to beat X micro index by an average of 10%, but he is taking a position with a much higher alpha... Sure.

Guaranteed returns over a 5 year basis... for 4x market returns with a decrease in risk. LMAO SURE.
Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
That is correct. Keep in mind, I never said I can consistently outperform the market every year. But I believe I can generate annualized returns of about 50% over 5 years. Can I guarantee it? No... maybe it'll 40%... maybe even 30%... but I believe I can get to around the 50% range. There are always risks, so nobody should ever guarantee it. Even some of the best investors have been duped into some of the worst investments - it happens. But let's be realistic. Over the long haul, the hedge fund managers today would decimate the S&P, Dow, or whatever benchmark you want to use if they only had to invest $1 million. And I truly mean decimate it.
Your posts are quoted... We know what you said. You are e stating out your ass.
post 1543214451 02-08-2018, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
B I N G O

Had he said I am managing to beat X micro index by 3% with out increasing its variance... I would have said sure very possible.
If he had said he is managing to beat X micro index by an average of 10%, but he is taking a position with a much higher alpha... Sure.

Guaranteed returns over a 5 year basis... for 4x market returns with a decrease in risk. LMAO SURE.



Your posts are quoted... We know what you said. You are e stating out your ass.
I said Buffett said he can guarantee 50% on $10 million. I never said I canguaranteeanything.

The math that was used to generate $100 million over 15 years was clearly misleading and a flat out lie because I never claimed I would be able to achieve those kind of returns at that growth rate.
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post 1543215001 02-08-2018, 01:58 PM
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Also never said I can decrease risk - I said I can decrease MARKET risk. Once again, you're simply lying about what I said. Whatever though. You're going to just keep lying about what I said so there is no point in continuing this.
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post 1543216131 02-08-2018, 02:08 PM
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Ok, so you believe you can generate an annualized return of %50/year over 5 years. What do you think you can do over 35-40 years (in taxable accounts)?
post 1543216591 02-08-2018, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted By sowilson⏩
Ok, so you believe you can generate an annualized return of %50/year over 5 years. What do you think you can do over 35-40 years?
35-40 years would obviously be significantly less.
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post 1543217381 02-08-2018, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
35-40 years would obviously be significantly less.
yes it would be (is). 10%, 17%, 24%, 35%? Not looking for a guarantee, just your thoughts
post 1543217861 02-08-2018, 02:23 PM
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#290
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Originally Posted By Ikeman83⏩
Just checking, but has SillieBazillie made a thread about the DJI opening at 24,085 and closing at 24912.77 today?
Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Dead cats bounce bro. Then they stay down.
Originally Posted By Ikeman83⏩
LOL


Just checking, but has Ikeman83 made a thread about the DJI opening at 24,902 and closing at 23,860 today?


I think we should score this round to SillieBazzillie. It does look like a dead cat bounce happened.


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post 1543218431 02-08-2018, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted By sowilson⏩
yes it would be (is). 10%, 17%, 24%, 35%? Not looking for a guarantee, just your thoughts
It's such a tough question to answer. Once you start hitting $10, 20, 30 etc. million in assets you will naturally take on less risk and reduce your returns. Also, it's very difficult to say what the investment industry will look like in 35-40 years. But if we are talking over 40 years even 10% on $1 million will return you like $50ish million? I believe I can achieve that.
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post 1543218441 02-08-2018, 02:31 PM
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#292
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
It does look like a dead cat bounce happened.
It looks like I got straight fukked in the ass.


My cries of "no homo" did not help.
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post 1543220431 02-08-2018, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
It's such a tough question to answer. Once you start hitting $10, 20, 30 etc. million in assets you will naturally take on less risk and reduce your returns. Also, it's very difficult to say what the investment industry will look like in 35-40 years. But if we are talking over 40 years even 10% on $1 million will return you like $50ish million? I believe I can achieve that.
Sensible. In my tax deferred retirement accounts I'm averaging 14.2%/year since 1985. Although now I'm starting to lower my risk profile since I will be retiring in 8 years (don't feel like stomaching 2008 again - this close to retirement). In my taxable accounts (so, saving for house down payment, some college, vehicle purchases, home repairs, unemployment, etc) my average is lower %8.2/year but still rather good.
post 1543221711 02-08-2018, 03:05 PM
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Quick pics for the lazy







post 1543221771 02-08-2018, 03:05 PM
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post 1543222191 02-08-2018, 03:11 PM
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Should have extended Yellen's term.
post 1543222441 02-08-2018, 03:13 PM
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bond market looking juicy

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post 1543222871 02-08-2018, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
bond market looking juicy

I mostly use it as an indicator
post 1543223121 02-08-2018, 03:19 PM
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Gotta filled up day of work tomorrow(and this weekend for that matter)

Would be nice if I could have 1 more stay home trade day.


Only need about 2 hours of prep and 20 min of trade time really.

Such is life....
post 1543224491 02-08-2018, 03:33 PM
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#300
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
Just checking, but has Ikeman83 made a thread about the DJI opening at 24,902 and closing at 23,860 today?


I think we should score this round to SillieBazzillie. It does look like a dead cat bounce happened.

I'm in complete agreement and expect to be repped accordingly.

The next few days will tell the real story, if we stay flat, trend up slightly, or down slightly we're fine. If the market stays volatile but heads ultimately down tests 22.5k we're in trouble. Hopefully the head and shoulders stay off the graphs.
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