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Thread: The Stock Market

post 1543227861 02-08-2018, 04:08 PM
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#301
  1. gachase21
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
I'm in complete agreement and expect to be repped accordingly.

The next few days will tell the real story, if we stay flat, trend up slightly, or down slightly we're fine. If the market stays volatile but heads ultimately down tests 22.5k we're in trouble. Hopefully the head and shoulders stay off the graphs.
Buy hold index fund brahs gonna shoot me, but there is some epic option play here







“We’re in trouble” is only relative to the timing of needs of funds.

Unless you are in late 70’s we cool


Past share buy back window we will see what action plays with added overseas liquidity incoming.
post 1543230651 02-08-2018, 04:42 PM
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#302
  1. XterraRob
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"Those damn quant funds"
The Era of Great Noticing has begun.
Modern liberalism is morally bankrupt and demonic.
Right wing politics is the new counter-culture.
Wincel: "I'm saying even the govt of China, while brutal at times, is NOT our enemy. Period."
Has Beowulf10 ever experienced true love? Where did he go?
Education is humanity's key to salvation.
The 2nd Cold War has begun.
post 1543231001 02-08-2018, 04:46 PM
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#303
  1. Austanian
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
Also never said I can decrease risk - I said I can decrease MARKET risk. Once again, you're simply lying about what I said. Whatever though. You're going to just keep lying about what I said so there is no point in continuing this.
You said and I quote: "First of all, I am an investment professional specializing in equities, but I do cover a range of securities. Yes, if you work full time and don't have a strong finance background then index funds are the way to go. However, if you're willing to really put in the work and spend hundreds of hours educating and practicing then yes, I believe individuals do have the ability to beat the market. And I can achieve 50% regardless of how the market moves if I am only managing $1 million. The funds today have too many assets under management to really create impressive returns."

If you have the ability to achieve 50% regardless of how the market moves. That would be reducing risk over your stated time frame to zero.

You bragged about your imaginary dick size so hard you can't even remember what you said.

Well have fun. I am going to beat Lebron in a game of 1 on 1. It is just so hard to get it scheduled with his agent. Stupid agency rules holding me back. Get that out of the way and I am CHAMP BABY. lol
post 1543232051 02-08-2018, 04:56 PM
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#304
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
You said and I quote: "First of all, I am an investment professional specializing in equities, but I do cover a range of securities. Yes, if you work full time and don't have a strong finance background then index funds are the way to go. However, if you're willing to really put in the work and spend hundreds of hours educating and practicing then yes, I believe individuals do have the ability to beat the market. And I can achieve 50% regardless of how the market moves if I am only managing $1 million. The funds today have too many assets under management to really create impressive returns."

If you have the ability to achieve 50% regardless of how the market moves. That would be reducing risk over your stated time frame to zero.

You bragged about your imaginary dick size so hard you can't even remember what you said.

Well have fun. I am going to beat Lebron in a game of 1 on 1. It is just so hard to get it scheduled with his agent. Stupid agency rules holding me back. Get that out of the way and I am CHAMP BABY. lol
Just LOL if you think I implied there wouldn't be unsystematic risk. Comparing apples to oranges. Whatever. You proved you don't understand. I'm done.
YOU ARE NOT A SLAVE
post 1543236581 02-08-2018, 05:49 PM
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#305
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I can beat Lebron James too.

Just can't get his agent and I to agree to terms on the game. Too bad too, cause I'd wreck him by at least 50% more points than him.
It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

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post 1543239851 02-08-2018, 06:25 PM
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#306
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Dow Jones industrial average has now lost 40.6 percent of the value it had added since Trump’s inauguration as of the peak it hit on January 26.

Wait for it.... stable genius in charge!
------->TRUMP LOST BY LANDSLIDE and BIDEN IS YOUR PRESIDENT<--------

LMFAO! LMFAO! LMFAO!

LMFAO! LMFAO! LMFAO!

LMFAO! LMFAO! LMFAO!
post 1543242931 02-08-2018, 06:59 PM
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#307
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Originally Posted By BadMonkeyFunker⏩
Dow Jones industrial average has now lost 40.6 percent of the value it had added since Trump’s inauguration as of the peak it hit on January 26.

Wait for it.... stable genius in charge!
Parabolic rises in the markets never end well. Eventually the number of buyers is exhausted and the number of people taking profits increases. Look for a 48% wave break (drop) from the peak, followed by rebound. President Trump is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, though dropping tax rates and regulations encouraged the parabolic nature of this rise.
“From this day to the ending of the world,
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We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
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Shall be my brother...”
post 1543243351 02-08-2018, 07:03 PM
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#308
  1. Ikeman83
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
Just checking, but has Ikeman83 made a thread about the DJI opening at 24,902 and closing at 23,860 today?


I think we should score this round to SillieBazzillie. It does look like a dead cat bounce happened.


Why would I? I wasn't the one crying about the sky falling. When it goes back up tomorrow will that be a dead cat bounce? How many times can a dead cat bounce? Just checking.
Florida Crew as of 3/21

What part of "Shall Not Be Infringed" are you having trouble with?

Misc Firearms Crew
post 1543245551 02-08-2018, 07:28 PM
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#309
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Originally Posted By Streetbull⏩
Parabolic rises in the markets never end well. Eventually the number of buyers is exhausted and the number of people taking profits increases. Look for a 48% wave break (drop) from the peak, followed by rebound. President Trump is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, though dropping tax rates and regulations encouraged the parabolic nature of this rise.
Sure... sure... nah... not really.

When it goes up stable genius takes credit for it in every speech, then when it crashes ...oh poor donny he was in the wrong place at the wrong time...

nope..
------->TRUMP LOST BY LANDSLIDE and BIDEN IS YOUR PRESIDENT<--------

LMFAO! LMFAO! LMFAO!

LMFAO! LMFAO! LMFAO!

LMFAO! LMFAO! LMFAO!
post 1543247691 02-08-2018, 07:54 PM
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#310
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Originally Posted By Ikeman83⏩
Why would I? I wasn't the one crying about the sky falling. When it goes back up tomorrow will that be a dead cat bounce? How many times can a dead cat bounce? Just checking.
in equities the dead cat can bounce a few times.

we broke through an important technical level of support today by closing lower than 10% down from the peak (23,954). if things stabilize then we had the famed "10% correction" but if we keep breaking lower, things might get very interesting.


edit: looking at some of the SMA, EMA technicals, we might be flirting with a bad bear trend. we crossed the 100 day SMA today (already crossed the 20 and 50 last week) and MACD nearing zero. if the shorter SMAs start crossing the longer SMAs, watch out!

It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

Mods - my avatar is locked by the admin and can't be changed.
post 1543247961 02-08-2018, 07:56 PM
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#311
  1. SillieBazzillie
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
in equities the dead cat can bounce a few times.

we broke through an important technical level of support today by closing lower than 10% down from the peak (23,954). if things stabilize then we had the famed "10% correction" but if we keep breaking lower, things might get very interesting.


edit: looking at some of the SMA, EMA technicals, we might be flirting with a bad bear trend. we crossed the 100 day SMA today (already crossed the 20 and 50 last week) and MACD nearing zero. if the shorter SMAs start crossing the longer SMAs, watch out!

Trumpers heads be spinning looking at those graphs.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543248421 02-08-2018, 08:01 PM
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#312
  1. gachase21
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Trumpers heads be spinning looking at those graphs.
I’m just seeing 2 things.


1. epic easy fast speculating plays opportunity

2. Post y’all have been making continually trying to attach a presidents name to market results I can quote later this year
post 1543249221 02-08-2018, 08:12 PM
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#313
  1. SillieBazzillie
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
I’m just seeing 2 things.


1. epic easy fast speculating plays opportunity

2. Post y’all have been making continually trying to attach a presidents name to market results I can quote later this year
Trump has attached himself to market results constantly boyo.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543249281 02-08-2018, 08:13 PM
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#314
  1. Streetbull
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Trumpers heads be spinning looking at those graphs.
Not really. Comparing short term moving averages with longer term moving averages is a standard technique within technical analysis. I use it extensively in momentum trades along with stops. It works well if you use decent stops and don’t get greedy.
“From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother...”
post 1543249761 02-08-2018, 08:18 PM
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#315
  1. gachase21
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Trump has attached himself to market results constantly boyo.
And now you have fallen for the trick with affirmation of concept by attaching the negative.


Now that you have affirmed concept you are a co-conspirator of the fallacy
post 1543250761 02-08-2018, 08:28 PM
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#316
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Trump has attached himself to market results constantly boyo.
He said before the election that he hoped the bubble would pop before he took office, or he would get the blame. But it would be irresponsible to talk down the markets, as POTUS.
Would have been better to just leave it alone.

His tax and regulation policies are good for the country and the exuberance that followed pumped up this market, far too much IMO. I think cash will be king for a while though gold might benefit.

And let’s face it: a P/E of 25 for the general market is just too damn high, a full 10 points or so above 100 year means and medians.
“From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother...”
post 1543250961 02-08-2018, 08:30 PM
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#317
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I started shorting significantly once it got above 25k. Panicked and covered my shorts at literally the top..... feel like a damn fool.
post 1543251501 02-08-2018, 08:36 PM
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#318
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
in equities the dead cat can bounce a few times.

we broke through an important technical level of support today by closing lower than 10% down from the peak (23,954). if things stabilize then we had the famed "10% correction" but if we keep breaking lower, things might get very interesting.


edit: looking at some of the SMA, EMA technicals, we might be flirting with a bad bear trend. we crossed the 100 day SMA today (already crossed the 20 and 50 last week) and MACD nearing zero. if the shorter SMAs start crossing the longer SMAs, watch out!

I would fully expect the fed to step in if it drops more than another 5%, less they want be to be known as the fed leadership that induced a recession.
post 1543252971 02-08-2018, 08:53 PM
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#319
  1. XterraRob
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These moves lately are not making sense to me tbh.
The Era of Great Noticing has begun.
Modern liberalism is morally bankrupt and demonic.
Right wing politics is the new counter-culture.
Wincel: "I'm saying even the govt of China, while brutal at times, is NOT our enemy. Period."
Has Beowulf10 ever experienced true love? Where did he go?
Education is humanity's key to salvation.
The 2nd Cold War has begun.
post 1543253191 02-08-2018, 08:56 PM
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#320
  1. gachase21
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Originally Posted By XterraRob⏩
These moves lately are not making sense to me tbh.
Market emotions.


It’s all long term meaningless really, even near term.


Short term it can be epic or disastrous depending on who you are and what you do.
post 1543260361 02-08-2018, 10:18 PM
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#321
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Originally Posted By sowilson⏩
Sensible. In my tax deferred retirement accounts I'm averaging 14.2%/year since 1985. Although now I'm starting to lower my risk profile since I will be retiring in 8 years (don't feel like stomaching 2008 again - this close to retirement). In my taxable accounts (so, saving for house down payment, some college, vehicle purchases, home repairs, unemployment, etc) my average is lower %8.2/year but still rather good.
That's fantastic. 14.2% annualized returns is extremely impressive over that length of time. Let's say I returned 50% annualized on $1 million over 5 years. Then let's say I did that 8 times over over the course of 40 years. The total annualized return would be less than 11% over that period. Those few extra percentage points would mean that you would return roughly triple of what I would return if we both started with $1 million. Because you're able to compound your returns, you would actually return far more money than me.
YOU ARE NOT A SLAVE
post 1543262851 02-08-2018, 10:57 PM
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#322
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Originally Posted By XterraRob⏩
These moves lately are not making sense to me tbh.
You are 30... Don't worry about it. Get your investment plan and keep going.

Predicting the turns is difficult. The market is significantly over priced compared to historical averages. These movements could be minor corrections or we could be seeing a crash.
post 1543584911 02-12-2018, 12:32 PM
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#323
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The Dow is up 500 points today. Is it over?
99 fishing crew, harpooning whales on the daily crew
post 1543585381 02-12-2018, 12:36 PM
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#324
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Originally Posted By Herblore⏩
The Dow is up 500 points today. Is it over?
Doubt it... This kind of volatility is weird.

Regardless unless you are planning on retiring in the next 5 years follow your plan through the ups and downs.
post 1543586081 02-12-2018, 12:43 PM
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#325
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I was just thinking about this. Is the correction still going on?

Very interesting couple weeks so far
Pursuit of Happiness
post 1543586271 02-12-2018, 12:45 PM
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#326
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Originally Posted By Audioslave⏩
That's fantastic. 14.2% annualized returns is extremely impressive over that length of time. Let's say I returned 50% annualized on $1 million over 5 years. Then let's say I did that 8 times over over the course of 40 years. The total annualized return would be less than 11% over that period. Those few extra percentage points would mean that you would return roughly triple of what I would return if we both started with $1 million. Because you're able to compound your returns, you would actually return far more money than me.
Except I wish I had started with a million instead of $3K. Of course the last double was double was quite nice (put my total into seven figures) and this last year has been nice although I'm now over invested in stocks and need to rebalance my portfolio. The only problem is that I'm not a fan of bonds.
post 1543589361 02-12-2018, 01:17 PM
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#327
  1. |ceman
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Originally Posted By Austanian⏩
Doubt it... This kind of volatility is weird.

Regardless unless you are planning on retiring in the next 5 years follow your plan through the ups and downs.
Originally Posted By seven11⏩
I was just thinking about this. Is the correction still going on?

Very interesting couple weeks so far
Here's the latest SMA & MACD chart.



SMA 20 and 50 getting closer to crossing (bad news) and MACD has dropped below 0 (also bad news).

We bounced off of the 100 day moving average and I suspect we'll test that again this week as the core issues that introduced volatility aren't going away and might get worse based on this week's financial news. Hope it's not so, but it feels like a lot of fund managers are sobering up after being drunk with wild gains the past ~15 months.
It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

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post 1543589601 02-12-2018, 01:20 PM
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#328
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Originally Posted By seven11⏩
I was just thinking about this. Is the correction still going on?

Very interesting couple weeks so far
No one knows.

But I think it's safe to assume that the ride straight upward is probably over for a while. It shouldn't change much for passive investors with a long time horizon, but active traders will probably see some volatility for a little while.
Misc Firearms Crew

Official Supp. Misc Beer Crew

RIP YGST
post 1543589681 02-12-2018, 01:21 PM
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#329
  1. SillieBazzillie
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
Here's the latest SMA & MACD chart.



SMA 20 and 50 getting closer to crossing (bad news) and MACD has dropped below 0 (also bad news).

We bounced off of the 100 day moving average and I suspect we'll test that again this week as the core issues that introduced volatility aren't going away and might get worse based on this week's financial news. Hope it's not so, but it feels like a lot of fund managers are sobering up after being drunk with wild gains the past ~15 months.
I have a hard time reconciling that concerns for wage inflation and increasing bond yields are going to push the market into bear territory. This volatility seems to me to be the result of some hedge fund guys not wanting to get caught on the wrong side of a year of continued growth. Seems irrational I mean. Regardless, while I don't like the volatility, as long as the market trends up and doesn't break through the floors noted by |ce I wouldn't worry too much.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1543593451 02-12-2018, 01:57 PM
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#330
  1. |ceman
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
I have a hard time reconciling that concerns for wage inflation and increasing bond yields are going to push the market into bear territory. This volatility seems to me to be the result of some hedge fund guys not wanting to get caught on the wrong side of a year of continued growth. Seems irrational I mean. Regardless, while I don't like the volatility, as long as the market trends up and doesn't break through the floors noted by |ce I wouldn't worry too much.
anything could be right at this point with volatility back and a market that everyone knows is overbought.

today was a good day to sell into the daily bull run and I took some of the 2017 earnings off the table to lock them in at around mid december's gains. hogs get slaughtered.
It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray

Mods - my avatar is locked by the admin and can't be changed.
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