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Thread: The Stock Market

post 1543596631 02-12-2018, 02:27 PM
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#331
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
anything could be right at this point with volatility back and a market that everyone knows is overbought.

today was a good day to sell into the daily bull run and I took some of the 2017 earnings off the table to lock them in at around mid december's gains. hogs get slaughtered.
For folks my age, I'd just wish the market would correct and be done with it, so I can ride one more wave up until I really need to get conservative. On the plus side, if bond yields keep increasing that's a nice safe place to park some cash and still get a return.

Don't get old boyos. Real life catches up with you quick.
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post 1543597091 02-12-2018, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted By sowilson⏩
Except I wish I had started with a million instead of $3K. Of course the last double was double was quite nice (put my total into seven figures) and this last year has been nice although I'm now over invested in stocks and need to rebalance my portfolio. The only problem is that I'm not a fan of bonds.
I don't really know your history of investing and your knowledge in the space, but you've had great success, which makes me think you know what you're doing. To be honest, don't get too caught up in diversifying across too many asset classes. If you know what you're doing, then stick to what you know. I've seen a lot of people who know equities very well, but they want to play in bonds and then they get burned. I'm not saying you can't be invested in any bonds, but you have to find out what works for you (I am not a retail financial advisor - just to be clear). I know a few buy side analysts and PMs who retired and they do extremely well just managing all their money in equities. They never over diversify. They pick maybe a handful of stocks and study the companies - learn them inside out. They run models, update during earnings, work on idea generation, etc. just like they used to at work and spend the rest of their time relaxing and enjoying their hobbies. I'd like to tell you that long-term these guys destroy the index funds, but I know the can of worms I would be opening here.
YOU ARE NOT A SLAVE
post 1543601551 02-12-2018, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
For folks my age, I'd just wish the market would correct and be done with it, so I can ride one more wave up until I really need to get conservative. On the plus side, if bond yields keep increasing that's a nice safe place to park some cash and still get a return.

Don't get old boyos. Real life catches up with you quick.
I would imagine most people your age have 2 waves left.
post 1543602211 02-12-2018, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
For folks my age, I'd just wish the market would correct and be done with it, so I can ride one more wave up until I really need to get conservative. On the plus side, if bond yields keep increasing that's a nice safe place to park some cash and still get a return.

Don't get old boyos. Real life catches up with you quick.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv...surydirect.htm
post 1543657041 02-13-2018, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted By gachase21⏩
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv...surydirect.htm
One note about above.

If you’re wanting to be safe and conservative....


One of the simplest principles of any retirement portfolio is to at least stay at or beat inflation.

I bonds are a safe easy way to do that.


https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv...nds_glance.htm
post 1543673311 02-13-2018, 10:44 AM
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post 1547234051 03-23-2018, 02:50 PM
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#337
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technicals looking pretty bad, bros



daily DJIA now dropped well below the 100 day moving average and close to hitting the 200 day moving average
20 day SMA has been below the 50 day for some time and now headed for the 100 day SMA
and MACD has been negative for a month

none of these are good signs.
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post 1547241171 03-23-2018, 04:31 PM
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If this continues, who will Trump blame?
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post 1547248301 03-23-2018, 06:19 PM
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These drops aren’t based in reality. During the obama years there would be a poor jobs report, the fed would say no interest rate increase because the economy sucks, Wall Street would cheer and we would keep going up.

Now we have a bill that will increase corporate earnings, a healthy economy with rising interest rates and dividends, employment at lows, etc. yet we have large swings?

It’s all short term noise.
post 1547250561 03-23-2018, 06:49 PM
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We’re going to 1929; excited misc?
post 1547252041 03-23-2018, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted By rampagefc77⏩
These drops aren’t based in reality. During the obama years there would be a poor jobs report, the fed would say no interest rate increase because the economy sucks, Wall Street would cheer and we would keep going up.

Now we have a bill that will increase corporate earnings, a healthy economy with rising interest rates and dividends, employment at lows, etc. yet we have large swings?

It’s all short term noise.
you're clueless
"not based in reality" fken l o l, good laugh m8 did you even listen to trump when he campaigned? In his words, "The stock market is one big fat ugly bubble"

do yourself a favor and have a go at sound economics before you end up in a ditch
https://www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport/videos
Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
If this continues, who will Trump blame?
President obanghoe and b00sh

srs, trump is as responsible for this as he was for the "job increase"
This is the result of 10 year artificially low interest rates and now the rate increases are taking air out of the bubble
mind=blown the amount of economic illiterates on here who can't see the storm that's coming (potential depression 2.0) looks like you'll have to learn the hard way, no wonder you guys voted for trump (or anyone really), keep voting yourself to enslavement you guys are nothing more than bees in the wind when it comes to investing and general life
post 1547255151 03-23-2018, 07:53 PM
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The higher the market goes, the more amplified the effects due to people's on-edge emotions. This is only the beginning though, onward with the Trade War!!
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post 1547484661 03-26-2018, 03:59 PM
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#343
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Originally Posted By rampagefc77⏩
These drops aren’t based in reality. During the obama years there would be a poor jobs report, the fed would say no interest rate increase because the economy sucks, Wall Street would cheer and we would keep going up.

Now we have a bill that will increase corporate earnings, a healthy economy with rising interest rates and dividends, employment at lows, etc. yet we have large swings?

It’s all short term noise.
even after today's run up, technicals are in trouble (and technicals have a way of being a self fulfilling prophecy when it comes to support and resistance)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...own-2018-03-26
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post 1547485091 03-26-2018, 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
even after today's run up, technicals are in trouble (and technicals have a way of being a self fulfilling prophecy when it comes to support and resistance)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...own-2018-03-26
bull trap, RIP
post 1547485121 03-26-2018, 04:05 PM
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Were gonna party like it's 19; 19; 1929.
post 1547491871 03-26-2018, 05:48 PM
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#346
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
even after today's run up, technicals are in trouble (and technicals have a way of being a self fulfilling prophecy when it comes to support and resistance)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...own-2018-03-26
I don't think this is a dead cat bounce. I think the market will meander and head downward for the next few months.
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post 1547493951 03-26-2018, 06:16 PM
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#347
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
I don't think this is a dead cat bounce. I think the market will meander and head downward for the next few months.
feels that way. big gains appear to be played out and technicals are supporting more of a correction.

as someone who was an adult and in the professional workforce in the mid-2000s, this current climate feels a lot like it did in the 2006'ish place. prosperity, profligate personal spending (restaurants are full - that's the single easiest sign of consumer confidence - are people willing to pay to eat out), a sense of calm before the storm.

as Warren Buffet likes to say - “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
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post 1547494221 03-26-2018, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
feels that way. big gains appear to be played out and technicals are supporting more of a correction.

as someone who was an adult and in the professional workforce in the mid-2000s, this current climate feels a lot like it did in the 2006'ish place. prosperity, profligate personal spending (restaurants are full - that's the single easiest sign of consumer confidence - are people willing to pay to eat out), a sense of calm before the storm.

as Warren Buffet likes to say - “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
Yep, plus the market is up so much in the last 18 months that a correction needs to happen.
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post 1547496841 03-26-2018, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
feels that way. big gains appear to be played out and technicals are supporting more of a correction.

as someone who was an adult and in the professional workforce in the mid-2000s, this current climate feels a lot like it did in the 2006'ish place. prosperity, profligate personal spending (restaurants are full - that's the single easiest sign of consumer confidence - are people willing to pay to eat out), a sense of calm before the storm.

as Warren Buffet likes to say - “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
logic would say that our country’s economic health is better now than at any other point in this bull market... so why a correction now?
post 1547498781 03-26-2018, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted By SillieBazzillie⏩
Yep, plus the market is up so much in the last 18 months that a correction needs to happen.
We can have a correction after 2024
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post 1547502881 03-26-2018, 08:17 PM
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Anyone do confident in a correction should short the market and post a screenshot here. Otherwise, we are all guessing.

People have been predicting corrections for the last 6+ years. Eventually someone will be right, but it will be luck, not superior market knowledge.
post 1547505601 03-26-2018, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted By rampagefc77⏩
Anyone do confident in a correction should short the market and post a screenshot here. Otherwise, we are all guessing.

People have been predicting corrections for the last 6+ years. Eventually someone will be right, but it will be luck, not superior market knowledge.
Yup, any retard (both high and low) can make a declaration that the market will go up or down, anyone with a brain will shrug and say "who knows?".
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post 1547532651 03-27-2018, 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted By rampagefc77⏩
logic would say that our country’s economic health is better now than at any other point in this bull market... so why a correction now?
long overdue. in the post WWII era there has been a recession on average every 4-5 years. it's been 10 years since the last recession.

also, historic highs in the market with valuations much higher than any historical average.

combine that with rising inflation and the corresponding FED response to raise interest rates which will cool off the economy and you have the prime conditions for a recession.



funny thing is that noobs were saying exactly what you are saying in the 2006/2007 timeframe -https://youtu.be/1xg7V7r9mFc?t=54
"I think it's a great time to start a mortgage company" - Donald Trump, 2006
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post 1547534971 03-27-2018, 08:18 AM
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But the 2008 crash wasn't just because things got overvalued at historically high multiples, there was a catalyst to set it off with the implosion of the mortgage market taking down banks and related funds though right?
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post 1547537031 03-27-2018, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
long overdue. in the post WWII era there has been a recession on average every 4-5 years. it's been 10 years since the last recession.

also, historic highs in the market with valuations much higher than any historical average.

combine that with rising inflation and the corresponding FED response to raise interest rates which will cool off the economy and you have the prime conditions for a recession.



funny thing is that noobs were saying exactly what you are saying in the 2006/2007 timeframe -https://youtu.be/1xg7V7r9mFc?t=54
"I think it's a great time to start a mortgage company" - Donald Trump, 2006
All I’m saying is we have had the same stock valuations for a LONG time, yet the market has plunged forward (against all logic, I agree). Now, have have decreased corporate taxes meaning increased corporate profits, which will improve valuations, will it not? We have a healthier economy than we did in recent years. All Logic points to improved performance.

I’ll concede that the market does not follow logic and “nobody knows nothin.” Therefore I buy and hold regardless of swings. I don’t need this money for 30+ years, why would I care if it dips now?

I just get amused when people try to apply logic to explain the market. Like I said, if you think it is going down, short the market, make a killing, go buy a yacht.
post 1547537241 03-27-2018, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted By SpeedCheeser⏩
But the 2008 crash wasn't just because things got overvalued at historically high multiples, there was a catalyst to set it off with the implosion of the mortgage market taking down banks and related funds though right?
yes, that's what made the crash very very very bad.

but the market is cyclical and like I said, in the post WWII era, there's been a recession every 4-5 years on average with the longest duration between recessions being 10 years (we are coming up on that number soon).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ression_onward
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post 1547540041 03-27-2018, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
yes, that's what made the crash very very very bad.

but the market is cyclical and like I said, in the post WWII era, there's been a recession every 4-5 years on average with the longest duration between recessions being 10 years (we are coming up on that number soon).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ression_onward
I’m well aware of what history says... and there will be another correction at some point... but if you were the people that pulled out in 2012 thinking it was due, you lost $$$$. It may go down 30% in a week, or it may go up another 40% before it drops 30%... and if it does drop, when is the bottom? When should you buy back in?

Nobody knows, buy and hold brosef.
post 1547540391 03-27-2018, 09:25 AM
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Predicting a correction because "the market is cyclical" is bush league. Recessions are either caused by black swan events or periods of unsustainable growth. We did not have unsustainable growth in the Obama years. We are not primed for a recession at all. The only concern I have for this bull market is that optimism and tax cuts etc are already priced in.
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post 1547543941 03-27-2018, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted By |ceman⏩
long overdue. in the post WWII era there has been a recession on average every 4-5 years. it's been 10 years since the last recession.
I've always heard every 7 years, but either way, we'd be overdue.

I did read an opinion that the recovery from the recession wasn't as strong as it should have been though (historically), and that may explain why we haven't had one yet. Had the recovery been in line with previous recoveries, we would've been way higher and the next recession (the overdue one) would've brought us to about where we are now. Meaning we're where we should be, and the next recession would be somewhere around 2020-2022.

Also, regarding market timing, the problem is you have to be right twice. You need to call the topandthe bottom. If you only get one right, you're still losing money.
post 1547544451 03-27-2018, 10:09 AM
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it's simple, welcome back market volatility. You cucks who've only been in since 2008 haven't seen, or invested through, real market volatility. You need to learn about risk, potential return, and timeline. When I was investing back in 1985 my retirement horizon was a lot different than it is now (8 years roughly) and I've had to learn how to invest for my upcomming risk/reward profile.

Now what sucks is that interest rates were so low (bumping up against the zero lower bound) that increasing bond rates (which is overal a good thing for awhile) will only lead to lower bond prices and there isn't much manevoring room for the Fed in the next recession (and there will be one). I really hate having lots of assets tied up in short term bonds but oh well, you do what you need to do to weather the storm.

Market volatility will teach you how to be comfortable with investments for your time horizon. If you're in your 20's or 30's don't worry about Trump's upcomming recession and market correction just stay the course, because you will never actually judge a market bottom.
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