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The stock market is on the edge of a cliff - don't say Big Ern' didn't warn you (srs)
10-12-2018, 10:11 AM
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#151
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Originally Posted By allianc3⏩
no crystal ball needed to understand that investments into real estate do not produce *amazing* results. on the rare occasion, one might get lucky & double his money in 10 years?Another goon who only "knows" his own local market and has a crystal ball. LOL
in most cases, you might make 3-5% per year which is whatever...
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10-12-2018, 10:15 AM
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#152
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Originally Posted By allianc3⏩
Couldput downward pressure? u w0t?Strong crystal ball you have bud.
Look at the facts as we know them now:
Wage growth is starting to creep, inflation could pick back up, fed raising ratescouldput downward pressure on the equities markets. RE is always going to be seen as a nice hedge against inflation, especially if you start getting outflows from equities into RE as a wealth shelter. Look what happened after the .com bubble burst...money left the equities markets and went to RE which was a huge tailwind that created the housing bubble from early 2000's to 2006 or 2007 when it started to finally cool and then eventually pop. We haven't seen any big outflows from equities or unusual inflows into RE so the idea that RE broadly is in a bubble is extremely premature.
Look at the facts as we know them now:
Wage growth is starting to creep, inflation could pick back up, fed raising ratescouldput downward pressure on the equities markets. RE is always going to be seen as a nice hedge against inflation, especially if you start getting outflows from equities into RE as a wealth shelter. Look what happened after the .com bubble burst...money left the equities markets and went to RE which was a huge tailwind that created the housing bubble from early 2000's to 2006 or 2007 when it started to finally cool and then eventually pop. We haven't seen any big outflows from equities or unusual inflows into RE so the idea that RE broadly is in a bubble is extremely premature.
I realize that a lot of you were primarily concerned with the value of your Pokemon cards at the outset of the last financial crisis, so I won't waste my time and belabor these points, but suffice it to say that liquidity is everything. The artificial liquidity that central banks pumped into the markets is now draining back out and revealing a low tide with the massive debt (those central banks created) everywhere. No money is going to rush into real estate because that bubble is going to be popping catastrophically at the same time.
To question whether there even is a real estate bubble currently is laughable. Bruh....
Mortgage rates are what really kills it. We just crossed 5%. Just wait until we close in on 6....
You a broker, breh?
I bought my house in 2013, which was about a year too late from the bottom. Why shouldn't people do the same as I did since the current situation mirrors 2008 so much?
Make Europe Germany Again
10-12-2018, 10:17 AM
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#153
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Originally Posted By RightKindaGuy⏩
You understand how leverage works or nah?? You know what, forget it. I don't need to educate you.no crystal ball needed to understand that investments into real estate do not produce *amazing* results. on the rare occasion, one might get lucky & double his money in 10 years?
in most cases, you might make 3-5% per year which is whatever...
in most cases, you might make 3-5% per year which is whatever...
10-12-2018, 10:21 AM
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#154
- northernlights7
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Our Lord and Savior God Emperor Donald will not allow the economy to tank under his watch!!!!
10-12-2018, 10:26 AM
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#155
- Thunder999
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Originally Posted By northernlights7⏩
No president can be held responsible for what happens in stock market to be honest.Our Lord and Savior God Emperor Donald will not allow the economy to tank under his watch!!!!
10-12-2018, 10:26 AM
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#156
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Originally Posted By northernlights7⏩
My hope is that he blocks bailouts instead of selling out like Obama did and lets the banks fail. The economy is gonna be so fukked by the end of his first term that there's no way he's gonna get reelected unless he can keep everyone's focus (correctly) on the fed. Candidate Trump correctly called out Obama for presiding over a fed-induced bubble, but President Trump started to take credit for the same thing lol.Our Lord and Savior God Emperor Donald will not allow the economy to tank under his watch!!!!
Every business cycle siphons wealth away from the middle class and into bank coffers. Allowing them to self-destruct should be a natural penalty for being overly leveraged.
Make Europe Germany Again
10-12-2018, 10:37 AM
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#157
10-12-2018, 10:39 AM
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#158
10-12-2018, 10:55 AM
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#159
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Originally Posted By RightKindaGuy⏩
Cannot confirm, know a super wealthy old guy who just bought a multi-million $ apartment in NYC because he had so much cash laying around that needed a home after taking profits in stocks.wealthy people do not invest into RE, lol. so many other easier, more profitable options. especially in 2018.
average joes invest into real estate. its a middle class investment strategy (generally speaking)
average joes invest into real estate. its a middle class investment strategy (generally speaking)
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10-12-2018, 11:08 AM
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#160
10-12-2018, 11:10 AM
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#161
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Originally Posted By JuAngusPeppered⏩
What thread are you reading? Where did he say that the market would never recover after the inevitable huge correction?Lmao thanks for the insights OP, there were never other significant events that could crash the market until now. Better keep everything in your checking account with 0.01% interest right?
Spoiler!
Spoiler!
Make Europe Germany Again
10-12-2018, 11:21 AM
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#162
10-12-2018, 11:21 AM
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#163
- BulkingIsHard
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Thanks OP just bought 100k shares of UVXY after selling my family.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_decline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#By_absorption
10-12-2018, 11:24 AM
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#164
You guys will be right about a market correction eventually lol
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10-12-2018, 11:30 AM
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#165
Let's say I have my retirement saving pretty well locked down. Maxing 401k and IRA. DINK
What would you all recommend investing in given the current climate?
What would you all recommend investing in given the current climate?
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10-12-2018, 11:32 AM
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#166
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Originally Posted By arn710⏩
i'm not gonna give advice because it's your labor units at stake, not mine, but in general I would look at 10 year charts and see which things seem overpriced and which things seem like a good dealLet's say I have my retirement saving pretty well locked down. Maxing 401k and IRA. DINK
What would you all recommend investing in given the current climate?
What would you all recommend investing in given the current climate?
Make Europe Germany Again
10-12-2018, 11:46 AM
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#167
- flexnation
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Originally Posted By Briisk⏩
As others have said, RE is extremely localized. Get with a Broker out in your area and speak with them. If you need to find one, PM me and ill find a broker out there for you Srs.I'm know a lot of miscres here are late 20s early 30s and I'm guessing have some good cash saved up in order to buy a house/condo instead of renting. What should we all do? Buy soon or maybe late 2019?
Buying now isn't necessarily a bad thing. You just need to understand that you're most likely going to be upside down in a few years. As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
That said, if you dont need to buy right now and are okay with renting or better yet, living with family if you're young enough/they allow/you want, then that would be the best scenario. Wait for a correction and then buy.
Originally Posted By RightKindaGuy⏩
like i said, simple minded investors^
a lot of wealthy people do not own houses so they have the liquid to invest elsewhere. obviously a lot of factors at play, but your strategy is what id hear at the local trailer park yard from some random drunken guy named Joe
a lot of wealthy people do not own houses so they have the liquid to invest elsewhere. obviously a lot of factors at play, but your strategy is what id hear at the local trailer park yard from some random drunken guy named Joe
Originally Posted By RightKindaGuy⏩
Urine Idiot.wealthy people do not invest into RE, lol. so many other easier, more profitable options. especially in 2018.
average joes invest into real estate. its a middle class investment strategy (generally speaking)
average joes invest into real estate. its a middle class investment strategy (generally speaking)
I dont think anyone is saying that buying a primary residence is a good investment.Its not!You should never purchase a primary residence as an investment or thinking that you're going to get rich off of it. It'll never happen, we agree there.
You're retarded because whenwealthypeople invest in real estate, they invest in properties that will actually bring in money on a monthly basis. People with real money look for the deals that'll bring them an 8-12%+ return on investment per yearfrom rental income alone.You add appreciation to that, pay down on your mortgage, the magical tax write off of depreciation and other various write offs, and that ROI starts becoming lucrative. Thats where the real money is at.
Have fun with only investing in your IRA while I max that out and purchase rental properties that allow me to sit on my ass all day and generate enough positive cash flow so I dont have to work a "real job" to cover my living expenses. Your ignorance is amazing.
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10-12-2018, 11:58 AM
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#168
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Originally Posted By flexnation⏩
haha, yikes.As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
we're both in portland, so let's talk about our market. you would agree that we've already peaked, correct?
as far as real estate goes, i'd recommend that anyone find their local version of this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POXRSA
and lay a ruler over the screen and see where things actually should be lolz
Make Europe Germany Again
10-12-2018, 12:07 PM
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#169
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Originally Posted By Ratfish⏩
Please don't listen to this. If you looked at a 10 year chart for GE they would seem incredibly undervalued at the moment, but it's a fuking terrible investment. Some crappy TA on a 10 year chart isn't going to be a solid investment strategy. You really need to combine any TA with fundamental analysis.i'm not gonna give advice because it's your labor units at stake, not mine, but in general I would look at 10 year charts and see which things seem overpriced and which things seem like a good deal
If you have a relatively moderate risk appetite but you're out of tax advantaged investment vehicles but looking to gain more exposure to the equities market I would go with a few low fee, sector specific ETF's and re balance here and there. I wouldn't want to recommend you any specific stocks because you should do your own homework on those and not necessarily trust a miscers opinion with your $.
10-12-2018, 12:12 PM
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#170
- colbski
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I was telling people that we're in an economic winter mid june.... and here we are.
Interest rates go up, housing prices go down, yay! I love the winters because it provides ample opportunity to build for the future!
Interest rates go up, housing prices go down, yay! I love the winters because it provides ample opportunity to build for the future!
:D
10-12-2018, 12:12 PM
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#171
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Originally Posted By flexnation⏩
On spreadAs others have said, RE is extremely localized. Get with a Broker out in your area and speak with them. If you need to find one, PM me and ill find a broker out there for you Srs.
Buying now isn't necessarily a bad thing. You just need to understand that you're most likely going to be upside down in a few years. As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
That said, if you dont need to buy right now and are okay with renting or better yet, living with family if you're young enough/they allow/you want, then that would be the best scenario. Wait for a correction and then buy.
Urine Idiot.
I dont think anyone is saying that buying a primary residence is a good investment.Its not!You should never purchase a primary residence as an investment or thinking that you're going to get rich off of it. It'll never happen, we agree there.
You're retarded because whenwealthypeople invest in real estate, they invest in properties that will actually bring in money on a monthly basis. People with real money look for the deals that'll bring them an 8-12%+ return on investment per yearfrom rental income alone.You add appreciation to that, pay down on your mortgage, the magical tax write off of depreciation and other various write offs, and that ROI starts becoming lucrative. Thats where the real money is at.
Have fun with only investing in your IRA while I max that out and purchase rental properties that allow me to sit on my ass all day and generate enough positive cash flow so I dont have to work a "real job" to cover my living expenses. Your ignorance is amazing.
Buying now isn't necessarily a bad thing. You just need to understand that you're most likely going to be upside down in a few years. As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
That said, if you dont need to buy right now and are okay with renting or better yet, living with family if you're young enough/they allow/you want, then that would be the best scenario. Wait for a correction and then buy.
Urine Idiot.
I dont think anyone is saying that buying a primary residence is a good investment.Its not!You should never purchase a primary residence as an investment or thinking that you're going to get rich off of it. It'll never happen, we agree there.
You're retarded because whenwealthypeople invest in real estate, they invest in properties that will actually bring in money on a monthly basis. People with real money look for the deals that'll bring them an 8-12%+ return on investment per yearfrom rental income alone.You add appreciation to that, pay down on your mortgage, the magical tax write off of depreciation and other various write offs, and that ROI starts becoming lucrative. Thats where the real money is at.
Have fun with only investing in your IRA while I max that out and purchase rental properties that allow me to sit on my ass all day and generate enough positive cash flow so I dont have to work a "real job" to cover my living expenses. Your ignorance is amazing.
10-12-2018, 12:15 PM
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#172
- paul_v
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I didn't read the whole thread but did anyone mention that Oct 15 is Monday and that's the deadline for delayed tax filing? I had to sell some market assets to pay my tax bill
Do you think there are a lot of people out there that had big tax bills and had to sell some assets to cover it? It just so happened that the dip occurred the week of tax filing. I found it odd that no one mentioned that. That could have helped contribute to the correction.
Do you think there are a lot of people out there that had big tax bills and had to sell some assets to cover it? It just so happened that the dip occurred the week of tax filing. I found it odd that no one mentioned that. That could have helped contribute to the correction.
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10-12-2018, 12:22 PM
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#173
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Originally Posted By allianc3⏩
no no, it should have been obvious that i would not buy any stocks right now. i meant different assets entirelyPlease don't listen to this. If you looked at a 10 year chart for GE they would seem incredibly undervalued at the moment, but it's a fuking terrible investment. Some crappy TA on a 10 year chart isn't going to be a solid investment strategy. You really need to combine any TA with fundamental analysis.
If you have a relatively moderate risk appetite but you're out of tax advantaged investment vehicles but looking to gain more exposure to the equities market I would go with a few low fee, sector specific ETF's and re balance here and there. I wouldn't want to recommend you any specific stocks because you should do your own homework on those and not necessarily trust a miscers opinion with your $.
If you have a relatively moderate risk appetite but you're out of tax advantaged investment vehicles but looking to gain more exposure to the equities market I would go with a few low fee, sector specific ETF's and re balance here and there. I wouldn't want to recommend you any specific stocks because you should do your own homework on those and not necessarily trust a miscers opinion with your $.
Make Europe Germany Again
10-12-2018, 12:30 PM
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#174
Originally Posted By arn710⏩
Continue with your current strategy with an allocation of stocks/bonds/cash appropriate to your risk tolerance. Forget about "current climate". That implies you know something about the future. Make sure you are comfortable riding out your allocation in the case of a major correction. If you need certain cash within a few years, invest it more conservatively.Let's say I have my retirement saving pretty well locked down. Maxing 401k and IRA. DINK
What would you all recommend investing in given the current climate?
What would you all recommend investing in given the current climate?
If OP is confident in his prediction he should SHORT the market hard and make $millions.
𝕮𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖈𝖍𝖊𝖈𝕶, 𝖓𝖊𝖛𝖊𝖗 𝖈𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖇𝖎𝖙𝖈𝖍
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10-12-2018, 12:30 PM
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#175
- flexnation
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Originally Posted By Ratfish⏩
Absolutely, we've peaked. Im a realtor out here(which honestly doesnt say much, most realtors are glorified used car salesmen who dont know shyt about economics or real estate but can sell their asses off), so I literally study the real estate market for a living.haha, yikes.
we're both in portland, so let's talk about our market. you would agree that we've already peaked, correct?
as far as real estate goes, i'd recommend that anyone find their local version of this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POXRSA
and lay a ruler over the screen and see where things actually should be lolz
we're both in portland, so let's talk about our market. you would agree that we've already peaked, correct?
as far as real estate goes, i'd recommend that anyone find their local version of this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POXRSA
and lay a ruler over the screen and see where things actually should be lolz
Pending and closed sales are down 10% and 2% from August of last year and 10% down from July. Havent pulled september number yet(been lazy the last week) but they've likely followed suit. Inventory is up as well which honestly doesnt say much without context but in Portlands case, its not good. Ive got a few houses on the market right now that aren't selling due to being overpriced and were seeing houses sit on the market longer and incur more and more price drops and even some houses not selling at all as the number of expired and cancelled listings has dramatically increased from last year. Needless to say, we're on our way down and the top is behind us.
That said, what is wrong with stating?:
As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
Like I said in that post, your primary residence isnotan investment even though most people still think it is and thats what theyre told. One of the first posts I made ITT was that im recommending my buyers to hold off from buying if they can but if not, to understand that they'll likely be upside down in a few years. Nothing wrong with that if you play the long game and understand that a primary residence should not be seen as an investment.
You also conveniently ignored my very next sentence:
That said, if you dont need to buy right now and are okay with renting or better yet, living with family if you're young enough/they allow/you want, then that would be the best scenario. Wait for a correction and then buy.
Now, if you're a doom and gloom guy and think that this next recession will be the biggest of all time and it'll take the dollar out, then yeah my advice is not for you. But if that happens we're all fuked anyway so who cares lol.
"If you come at the king, you best not miss"
-Omar Little
10-12-2018, 12:33 PM
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#176
Originally Posted By flexnation⏩
Short REITs then. There are plenty of Inverse REIT ETFs.Absolutely, we've peaked. Im a realtor out here(which honestly doesnt say much, most realtors are glorified used car salesmen who dont know shyt about economics or real estate but can sell their asses off), so I literally study the real estate market for a living.
𝕮𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖈𝖍𝖊𝖈𝕶, 𝖓𝖊𝖛𝖊𝖗 𝖈𝖍𝖆𝖘𝖊 𝖆 𝖇𝖎𝖙𝖈𝖍
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10-12-2018, 12:37 PM
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#177
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Not gonna lie.. this could be a great time to get in on stocks (depending on the industry) I bought in on ford back in 2008 when it dropped down to 1.63 a share. It's not doing well right now due to tariffs and other woes.. I even think they're doing layoffs but in the end it's all about CYCLES. harley davidson too
just bumped my 401k up to 15% too.
just bumped my 401k up to 15% too.
:D
10-12-2018, 12:42 PM
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#178
- flexnation
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Originally Posted By Luc1fer⏩
Thats an option. I was speaking to people who are thinking about making a purchase right now for a primary residence. Not giving investment advice there.Short REITs then. There are plenty of Inverse REIT ETFs.
"If you come at the king, you best not miss"
-Omar Little
10-12-2018, 12:45 PM
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#179
10-12-2018, 12:48 PM
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#180
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Originally Posted By flexnation⏩
my problem with it is that it's a big if. i bought in 2013 and plan on literally never selling my house. my mortgage is 17K right now. i like the feeling of not having to worry about losing my job etc more than the feeling of maybe making money in the casino economy. i'm going to be a lot more aggressive with the money that will pool when my house is paid off next spring. could i have beat 4.25% elsewhere? yes, but it's far more important to me to never worry about my house. i don't care if i could have sold it for double what i bought it for recently; i'm not going to live in the sewers until the next crash.Absolutely, we've peaked. Im a realtor out here(which honestly doesnt say much, most realtors are glorified used car salesmen who dont know shyt about economics or real estate but can sell their asses off), so I literally study the real estate market for a living.
Pending and closed sales are down 10% and 2% from August of last year and 10% down from July. Havent pulled september number yet(been lazy the last week) but they've likely followed suit. Inventory is up as well which honestly doesnt say much without context but in Portlands case, its not good. Ive got a few houses on the market right now that aren't selling due to being overpriced and were seeing houses sit on the market longer and incur more and more price drops and even some houses not selling at all as the number of expired and cancelled listings has dramatically increased from last year. Needless to say, we're on our way down and the top is behind us.
That said, what is wrong with stating?:
As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
Like I said in that post, your primary residence isnotan investment even though most people still think it is and thats what theyre told. One of the first posts I made ITT was that im recommending my buyers to hold off from buying if they can but if not, to understand that they'll likely be upside down in a few years. Nothing wrong with that if you play the long game and understand that a primary residence should not be seen as an investment.
You also conveniently ignored my very next sentence:
That said, if you dont need to buy right now and are okay with renting or better yet, living with family if you're young enough/they allow/you want, then that would be the best scenario. Wait for a correction and then buy.
Now, if you're a doom and gloom guy and think that this next recession will be the biggest of all time and it'll take the dollar out, then yeah my advice is not for you. But if that happens we're all fuked anyway so who cares lol.
Pending and closed sales are down 10% and 2% from August of last year and 10% down from July. Havent pulled september number yet(been lazy the last week) but they've likely followed suit. Inventory is up as well which honestly doesnt say much without context but in Portlands case, its not good. Ive got a few houses on the market right now that aren't selling due to being overpriced and were seeing houses sit on the market longer and incur more and more price drops and even some houses not selling at all as the number of expired and cancelled listings has dramatically increased from last year. Needless to say, we're on our way down and the top is behind us.
That said, what is wrong with stating?:
As long as you stay put through the recession, dont lose your job and make enough money to cover your expenses, you'll be fine.
Like I said in that post, your primary residence isnotan investment even though most people still think it is and thats what theyre told. One of the first posts I made ITT was that im recommending my buyers to hold off from buying if they can but if not, to understand that they'll likely be upside down in a few years. Nothing wrong with that if you play the long game and understand that a primary residence should not be seen as an investment.
You also conveniently ignored my very next sentence:
That said, if you dont need to buy right now and are okay with renting or better yet, living with family if you're young enough/they allow/you want, then that would be the best scenario. Wait for a correction and then buy.
Now, if you're a doom and gloom guy and think that this next recession will be the biggest of all time and it'll take the dollar out, then yeah my advice is not for you. But if that happens we're all fuked anyway so who cares lol.
my point is that buying now means you could be upside down for 8 years. that's a really long time. the same market dynamics that kill the bubble will likely affect the person's income. i'm wired to be risk-averse (except when it comes to strippers...waitwut) and it has served me well.
there are some areas where the people are still upside down after buying in 2008. they never cleared the original purchase price. fukk that
that all being said, portland is somewhat of a unique case in that you could get absolutely soaked in california during a crash and move up here with the proceeds and buy a house that is better than the one you had in a nicer area. i don't think we're gonna get nuked necessarily, but still.
Make Europe Germany Again
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