It’s because of the lag(and lack of testing). For reference the OG thread was created on Jan. 21st and there was 220 confirmed cases worldwide. Fast forward 8 weeks(give or take) and look where we are. The average incubation time before symptoms is a little over 6 days, so let’s just say one week. Let’s also assume the RO of 3 is correct.


Week 0- 3 people are showing symptoms

Week 1- 9 people are showing symptoms

Week 2- 27 people are showing symptoms




Week10- 177,147 are showing symptoms



Week 13- 4,782,969 people are showing symptoms

Week 14-14,348,907 people are showing symptoms




Starting out it could go undetected if symptoms are mild, but eventually even people who feel even slightly bad will convince themselves they have it. And obviously even a slight change in RO could drastically change those numbers over time. Plus we can see differences as it starts to burn out in some place or take off in others(like India).

Cases in China have levelled off....at least the the ones they claim. The talk of a less aggresive strain may be part of this. I do think quarantines will come, to at least try and stall the spread.

its because we're barely doing any testing at all. South Korea is doinglike 1500 tests/day. We're doing a tiny fraction of that. Theres def way more cases here than we know yet.

N95 respirators work.

If you are concerned about the best protection possible should you have to go into areas with known or possibly infected persons, then a properly-worn N95 respirator will in fact help reduce your exposure.



Association between 2019-nCoV transmission and N95 respirator use
https://www.journalofhospitalinfecti...097-9/fulltext
Mar 3rd, 2020

Cases of a novel type of contagious pneumonia were first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Chinese health authorities have determined that a novel coronavirus (CoV), denoted as 2019-nCoV (SARS-CoV-2), is the cause of this pneumonia outbreak (COVID-19)1,2. Existing evidence have confirmed the human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV3. (Table 1)

We retrospectively collected infection data from 2nd to 22nd January 2020 at six departments (Respiratory, ICU, Infectious Disease, Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Trauma and Microsurgery, and Urology) from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. Medical staff (doctors and nurses) followed differential routines of occupational protection: (a) staff at the Departments of Respiratory Medicine, ICU, and Infectious Disease (mainly quarantined area) wore N95 respirators, and disinfected and cleaned their hands frequently (the N95 group); (b) medical staff in the other three departments wore no medical masks, and disinfected and cleaned their hands only occasionally (the no-mask group). The difference was because the latter departments were not considered to be high risk in the early days of the outbreak.

Suspected cases of 2019-nCoV infection was investigated by chest CT, and confirmed by molecular diagnosis. In total, 28 and 58 patients had confirmed and suspicious 2019-nCov-infection. Patient exposure was significantly higher for the N95 group compared to no-mask group (for confirmed patients: difference: 733%; exposure odds ratio: 8.33, Table I).

Among the 493 medical staff, none of 278 (56 doctors and 222 nurses) in the N95 group became infected, compared with 10 of 213 (77 doctors and 136 nurses) from the no-mask group were confirmed infected (Table I). Regardless of their lower risk of exposure, the 2019-nCoV infection rate for medical staff was significantly increased in the no-mask group compared with the N95 respirator group (difference: 4.65%, [95% CI: 1.75%-infinite]; P<2.2e-16) (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 464.82, [95% CI: 97.73-infinite]; P<2.2e-16).

Likewise, we analyzed the medical staff infection data from Huangmei People’s Hospital (12 confirmed patients) and Qichun People’s Hospital (11 confirmed patients), and have observed the similar phenomenon. No medical staff wearing the N95 respirators and following routines of frequent disinfection and hand washing were infected by 2019-nCoV up until 22nd January 2020.

A randomized clinical trial has reported that the N95 respirators vs medical masks resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory confirmed influenza4. In our study, we observed that the N95 respirators, disinfection and hand washing appear to help reduce the infectious risk of 2019-nCoV in doctors and nurses. Interestingly, departments with a high proportion of male doctors seemed to have a higher risk of infection. Our results emphasize the need for strict occupational protection measures in fighting COVID-19.

I readthat people are stealing hand sanitizers and surgical masks from doctors' offices. What a new low.
source:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/peop...uomo-says.html

25% of Italy will be on lock down

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-p...us-11583613874

Uh oh people tested positive for the virus right after attending CPAC with trump pence and others.

This is not normal or flu like.



https://www.king5.com/article/news/h...6-a5af399e2a75I read the person wasn't in the main room with Trump Pence and had no contact with officials.

I read the person was in a room far away. There were infected people at CPAC and AIPAC.

I wish Trump/Pence would get it. Not to injure them, but to increase urgency and let people know this isn't the flu. I wish them no harm.

I can't believe we had a month headstart and yet still no tests. Texas can only test 125 people a day right now. 29 million live in the state.

https://smcorridornews.com/governor-...r-coronavirus/

Numbers in China are leveling off. Deaths in America aren't too severe. The media will get bored of this and move on eventually.

I don't believe China numbers.

The length of death takes about 8-18 days from symptom onset.

Last week we had less than 15 non cruise ship infected, now we're over 437 infected. Hopefully our healthcare is better than China (not looking good in Seattle). Deaths should climb this week and next week in America.

I'm hoping we follow the South Korea trend and not Italy/Iran.

says they are now doing chest scans and counting those in the results so the testing methods are changing the #s

I deleted it...sorry guys, out of date.

Those chest CT scans are good for screening for active viral infection, but they are not specific for anything. Any virus can show similar findings, and even non-infectious things like pulmonary edema and smoking-related interstitial lung diseases can look similar. I hope they are confirming the imaging findings with actual PCR to confirm before adding those cases to the total tally.

My clinic is running close to low on face masks. Suppliers don't know when they'll have more coming in. How how the hell do the suppliers of these items not turn up production?

They did. The surplus all went to the existing outbreaks. It got bad enough that Germany and South Korea reportedly banned exports.

I'm sure 99% (slight exaggeration) of production being in China and shipyards not receiving jack chit lately has something to do with that...

you go see a sick relative, they are 80 and immune compromise. Do you wear a mask or not?

Let's get right to the heart of this. You do have an agenda, and you are using your power of authority on this forum to push your agenda. I believe your agenda is well intended, you think panic is bad and for whatever reason you do not believe this is a serious threat. You accuse anyone who disagrees of suffering from confirmation bias. I think the truth is that both sides suffer from confirmation bias, you are simply incapable or unwilling to admit you suffer from it the same as we do. You state that you already approach this thread and topic from the conclusion that this is completely overblown.

[QUOTE=pogue post_id=1599241161]I posted plenty of evidence to refute this. I said it may help and linked to a video explaining the pros and cons and then linked to the studies they used. However, the[b]confirmation bias[/b]by the conspiratorial group is just unbelievable. It's like arguing with 9/11 deniers. It's just a waste of my time and energy and I can spend it better doing other things.

Then you have people who read the studies and just cherry pick the results that support their confirmation bias. Thus,[b]no amount of evidence will change the mind of the other person because their beliefs are so ingrained[/b]. It's a complete waste of my time and effort.

I believe the masks may be effective against COVID-19. That doesn't mean I'm going to recommend people wear them.[i][b]My entire argument from post #1 is that this entire "pandemic/epidemic" is completely overblown. Your risk level to get this virus is so low you're more likely to get hit by a meteor walking down the street than getting it.[/b][/i]So if you want to wear a mask, wear nitrile gloves, or put yourself in a bubble and gargle with Lysol, be my guest.[/QUOTE]You accuse me of cherry picking. I took the sources you posted, went to the results or conclusions section, and posted the data. In the proceeding post I made it a point to admit where I was wrong and come back to a place of civility and engage in productive conversation. I didn't link those reports, you did. I didn't write them, the authors did. It's very dishonest to claim that those reports support your OP. They don't. You can't find a source that supports your risk level assessment because no one knows for sure. The data about its rate of growth certainly doesn't support you, but your mind is already made up.

[QUOTE=pogue post_id=1599243011]This is my thread and I will moderate it as I see fit.[b]I intended this thread to provide science based information, answer questions about subjects dealing with the virus, and hopefully reduce the level of panic.[/b]So far, all I have done is get into debates with people about subjects that were completely irrelevant to that original goal.

[b]I created a separate thread[/b]that is completely unmoderated where you guys can go and discuss whatever you like. My decision in moderation is my own judgement call in this single thread. If you disagree with my decisions, I can respect that, but [BI disagree that my behavior is somewhat to blame. I'm trying to quell disinformation, not spread it.[/B]

Everything I posted is sourced with science based evidence. People can choose to ignore it or not. This is a big huge internet we're on and this thread isn't the end all be all of where people will go to gather their information. If you don't like what's being posted here, I'm sure Reddit or other sites can accommodate you.[/QUOTE]I would be inclined to agree with you, but you didn't simply start your own thread and start an moderated thread. You took the prime sticky real estate, for your own thread. You're a mod though so that is your prerogative. You could have labeled this thread "Pogues COVID-19 Discussion Thread" but you called it the Information thread instead. You didn't just give us an unmoderated thread. You labeled it misinformation and conspiracy theories. You admit your bias in the quotes above, but you peddle your bias as fact. This is not a free market for ideas, it is you abusing your authority to push YOUR take on this and spin anyone who disagrees as a conspiracy theorist. There was a need for some moderation, and there are certainly plenty of tin foil nuts pushing 5G nonsense that need to be kept in check. The idea of a fact based thread at the top is appealing, and I would whole heartedly support it if it was actually fact based and not your opinion based. You set the stage for conflict when you branded anyone who disagreed a conspiracy theorists or misinformation spreader.

It may only be a thread at the top of the misc section on BB.com, but it's a big world, there are alot of people making alot of choices. It would be a shame if someone literally died as a result of your choices. I do think you have good intentions, but you suffer from the exact same confirmation bias you accuse us of. Alot of powerful people have made some drastic choices based on this "overblown" event. Occams razor would suggest that the reaction to this virus is proportional to the threat.

Of course there is and that's a good sign. People are walking around with it and don't even know it and are alive and not having bad effects.


If people start getting violently I'll and dropping dead, the panic we see now would make sense. Not now

it's not as bad as the News makes it-but I'm just not saying to not be cautious cleaning you're but plug rings daily is a must *******s!

Add a zero to the end of any number China or Iran officially give

It’s because some people care about their elders and the already sick (cancer patients etc)

Most people don’t actually care about anyone but themselves so they are in the it’s no big deal boat

This. My mother is over 60 and my grandma just turned 89. IDGAF about myself, but I don't want to make them sick.

Well now there doing testing more aggressively,and as of now 105,000 confirmed cases world wide .
Probably more like millions infected if we were all tested . I’d say this virus is going to wipe out the economy at minimum

It. I like the hospital that keeps the temperature high.It must be a healthy place. It. Referring to places. He even specifically says outside...the fukkingbodyfurther on.

Please examine your argument. You have tied yourself to your argument. You are not your argument man, abandon this schit.

not sheriff srs and mild strawman.

How about the fact that I finished school in 2019 and was too broke to do anything but unfortunately move back to my parents who are toxic and controlling little *******s that have traumatized me a fuk ton over the years. I'm not even allowed to go out for a drink or stay out past 12 if I want to lvei here. Found a job in October that I very much appreciate and lucked out on to an extent but my start date is late 2020. Now I have been working a factory job since February. I make ice cream. I finally was in a financial situation where I can move out while living in the same city, which would no doubt piss my parents off. They don't care if I move out for my October job which is in a different city. Public perception of coronavirus means in all likelihood that demand for ice cream is going to tank. Meaning my hours are going to be slashed. Already applied to a few McDonald's

Dassitman

The disease has been around for AT LEAST 4 months now. China disclosed it in January which means they were fighting it for at least a month prior.

Only 19 Americans have died since then. With the great majority being senior citizens.

It isnt a big deal either way, it just means we should be isolating the vulnerable instead of working everyone on earth into panic and shutting life down

If millions of people are already infected and things arent that different right now, I'd say thats a good sign things might not get as bad you say with "wipe out the economy"