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Forum » Historical night- Market is crashing tonight
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Thread: Historical night- Market is crashing tonight

post 1599372711 03-09-2020, 11:52 AM
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#121
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Originally Posted By triception⏩
It was surreal watching all of that happen in China while having little to no press coverage in the US.

Actually made me think it was even worse than it looked because usually I'd expect the media response that knightofday is talking about. I guess we're finally at that point but it remains to be seen if it's warranted or not.
Incentives. I personally believe everything that happens is a function of incentive. I.e. I believe China looked at what would happen if they didn't take those actions, and there was sufficient incentive to react the way they did.

Trump is all about the economy and stock market. His incentive is stock pricing and economic impact. It is not surprising to me that the narrative of our government right now is in line with trying to keep everyone calm and avoid impacts to the market.

Our media is both biased and ravenous for viewership. So the incentive to keep people watching, while also painting trump in a bad light explains the level of hype we are now seeing with US MSM.

At this point I think we are a few weeks away from seeing behind the curtain. We are right around the same place as Wuhan was at the time they started locking things down, but that's using our nationwide totals, not just the totals from one city. In a couple of weeks individual cities will start to either look like Wuhan, or they won't. Only time will tell.

EDIT:
I feel this is relevant to the thread topic, in that supply chain interruptions and workforce impacts will start to emerge based on the outcome of the next few weeks. This may be the pin that pricked the bubble, but if this virus ends up being contained, I think it's possible we don't see full blow recession levels of downside.
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post 1599374291 03-09-2020, 12:12 PM
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I’m in real estate and don’t really follow stock market but from what I’m seeing is homes here are still selling like fukin hot cakes. Especially anything under 1m. Median here is 600k but really a decent sized house in good area is 700k+.

This crash makes me want to buy some stocks but likely I’ll hold off until I see it bottom out and start riding. Feel like it’s too early to buy now as it will dip more
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post 1599374511 03-09-2020, 12:15 PM
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Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
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post 1599374831 03-09-2020, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
fear..however if you were close to retirement it wouldnt have been a bad idea to sell a week or so ago
(these are my opinions i am not a licensed broker by trade)
post 1599374841 03-09-2020, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
Emotion.

Edit: Wizard ^
I went to money market on my 401k early February, a little premature but I have a 30 day rebuy delay, so I wanted to be able to buy in mid crash versus getting cucked while it rebounds and I'm on the sidelines.
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post 1599375611 03-09-2020, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
Panic
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post 1599376271 03-09-2020, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted By VegasLifter26⏩
130k here waiting to buy
cot dayum. I'm only investing ~15-20K soon.
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post 1599377721 03-09-2020, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted By sdshakal⏩
I’m in real estate and don’t really follow stock market but from what I’m seeing is homes here are still selling like fukin hot cakes. Especially anything under 1m. Median here is 600k but really a decent sized house in good area is 700k+.

This crash makes me want to buy some stocks but likely I’ll hold off until I see it bottom out and start riding. Feel like it’s too early to buy now as it will dip more
This hasn't had an impact on the housing market yet. I wish something would slow it down a bit. Brb 550k for some ****box with bad windows, structural issues, wiring etc.






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post 1599378151 03-09-2020, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted By aleeboy⏩
Do not promote panic selling of stocks.

This is how property tycoons were born. Taking advantage of fear to accumulate property lots, which they turned into malls and apartments.

They just want to purchase at a discount and people who fear will let them. Anyways, it's good that most of the stocks are held by institutional investors...



If you are looking at data, you are already late. The recession started in 2016 and pressure down was ramping up about a year ago... we are now at this point with more downwards pressure to come. Don't sell if you don't need cash. Otherwise it will cost you more to jump back on the bandwagon later. If you invested post 2016, you will be in a world of hurt though.
You have no idea what you're talking about. If you bought s&p500 in 2016, you would have made a **** ton of money by selling even today. It was around 2000, now it's 3000. Early 2019 it was 2400. How about don't talk abou things you know nothing about? Seriously it's so easy to check what you think and yet you still fail to do that. Just lol if you think this is the bottom of the coming year. Even the fact that you say "if you're looking at data you're already too late" shows much of an idiot you are. Of course you look at data, how the phuck else should you know what's true? This is why you don't know anything, go pray to the spaghetti monster.
post 1599378321 03-09-2020, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
Financial losses are felt much more keenly than gains. It is hard to lose 20% of your net worth in a few days with potentially a lot more losses to come, so people flee to safer assets out of fear.

I just read a great piece about bubbles/market volatility that is quite useful to read at a time like this:

https://www.collaborativefund.com/up...%20Bubbles.pdf

Cliffs:
- A bubble/extreme market volatility is not irrational because people are always looking to maximize returns for the minimum amount of risk.
- Times of market stability breed market instability - people bid risky asset prices up because they seem safe and stable.
- It is rational for investors to migrate from long-term investing to short-term investing if there is enough price momentum. Short-term investing can seem like higher reward for much lower risk.
- People are playing by different rules in the same market - a price that makes no sense to a long-term investor makes perfect sense to a short-term investor
- You have to know which rules you are playing by and what timeframe you are investing for (know thyself)
- These types of markets account for the majority of your returns for the next 10 years - very important time to make decisions.

That was my attempt at summarizing the article, probably easier to read the article yourself though lol.
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post 1599379341 03-09-2020, 01:23 PM
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#131
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Originally Posted By swoleyo⏩
This hasn't had an impact on the housing market yet. I wish something would slow it down a bit. Brb 550k for some ****box with bad windows, structural issues, wiring etc.






I KNOW WHAT I HAVE HERE. DONT UNDERCUT ME 550k FIRM
Exactly. Since I do acquisitions (we flip homes) I deal with a lot more agents and transactions on daily basis. Some of these agents get so fukin cocky with their listings it rustles my jimmies like no other. They overprice their chit listings and act like they are Josh Altman. Then a month later when they are stale on market they call me asking if I’m still interested. Just lol
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post 1599379411 03-09-2020, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
Some investors set a low-limit to their stock prices to avoid large losses. E.g. they set a price limit of 200 and when the stock price goes below it, they sell. Now when a lot of people have that limit, they have to drop their selling price lower because most people are not buying for the price they want to sell. This creates a feedback loop where the stock prices start to plummet. It creates panic, so people will also start selling stocks that are not doing so bad yet.

And also, stocks represent actual companies. When trouble hits, companies can go bankrupt like Flybe just did. The financial system is like a house cards. Once some companies start go bankrupt, they aren't paying back their loans, and those who they owed money to can't pay their bills, and it starts a chain of bankruptcies. People want to get out before the company they own stock in goes bankrupt. Stock owners are basically the last to get anything when a company goes bankrupt, so it's better to sell for a little loss than to lose everything. And even though the stock prices in general will go back up and to a higher level than they now are, many of the current top dog companies will not survive. Currently companies stay in the S&P500 on average for 18 years, it used to be 60 years 50 years ago. McKinsey predicts that by 2027, 75% of current companies will disappear from the S&P500. The churn rate of successful companies is getting faster and faster, and that means most people who invest in individual stocks will lose a lot of money unless they are smart and get out.
post 1599381181 03-09-2020, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted By BenMcLeodNZ⏩
I hope house prices crash big time so I can finally buy one.
Lmao this.

Also, I'm new af in stocks, but I'm guessing buying shares in Apple, Tesla, and Disney can't hurt when they drop a little lower right guys?
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post 1599381361 03-09-2020, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted By Rai9⏩
Lmao this.

Also, I'm new af in stocks, but I'm guessing buying shares in Apple, Tesla, and Disney can't hurt when they drop a little lower right guys?
This coming from someone who actually believes in the product, I would stay away from Tesla. There are some serious red flags surrounding Elon right now.
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post 1599382401 03-09-2020, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
The thinking is that any gains made over the last few years will vanish, so if you sell right now b4 your 100 dollar shares drop back down to the 10 that you paid for them, you will still be ahead.
So it is one part fear and one part not just breaking even or losing money.
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post 1599382711 03-09-2020, 02:08 PM
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For *******s with brass balls.

Time to buy some futures. Leverage this mfcking drop, expect a slingshot in the near future.
post 1599382771 03-09-2020, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted By darkninja67⏩
So this could potentially be much worse than the 2008-2009 crash??
debt levels across the board are far higher than they were back then
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post 1599383001 03-09-2020, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Can someone explain why people sell stocks in times like this? I don't know anything about stocks, but it seems to me like unless it's literally the end of the world won't prices inevitably go back up when whatever disaster is over?
don't underestimate the amount of people adding to their portfolios on margin on the way up, a ton of them have to liquidate to prevent margin calls

- not to mention most of the daily volume trading is done by algos, so these massive movements are algos tripping on each other's selling
- a ton of people are buying/selling index -> which means that the index funds have to sell everything in the index
post 1599383131 03-09-2020, 02:13 PM
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I have 2.5 million in cash. Ready to enter the market very soon.

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post 1599384211 03-09-2020, 02:30 PM
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Have about 150k in savings...might be time to learn about the stock market and buy. Right now I don't know a damn thing.
post 1599387201 03-09-2020, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted By FreshLemon⏩
Some investors set a low-limit to their stock prices to avoid large losses. E.g. they set a price limit of 200 and when the stock price goes below it, they sell. Now when a lot of people have that limit, they have to drop their selling price lower because most people are not buying for the price they want to sell. This creates a feedback loop where the stock prices start to plummet. It creates panic, so people will also start selling stocks that are not doing so bad yet.

And also, stocks represent actual companies. When trouble hits, companies can go bankrupt like Flybe just did. The financial system is like a house cards. Once some companies start go bankrupt, they aren't paying back their loans, and those who they owed money to can't pay their bills, and it starts a chain of bankruptcies. People want to get out before the company they own stock in goes bankrupt. Stock owners are basically the last to get anything when a company goes bankrupt, so it's better to sell for a little loss than to lose everything. And even though the stock prices in general will go back up and to a higher level than they now are, many of the current top dog companies will not survive. Currently companies stay in the S&P500 on average for 18 years, it used to be 60 years 50 years ago. McKinsey predicts that by 2027, 75% of current companies will disappear from the S&P500. The churn rate of successful companies is getting faster and faster, and that means most people who invest in individual stocks will lose a lot of money unless they are smart and get out.
Yes, but isn't that over a significant period of time? Stock prices show real time valuation, but certainly an entire corporations useable cash isn't tied to market valuation? I can't see how a company can fail to pay back loans/liabilities just because of market dips - or am I just ignorant and most debits/credits are based on perceived value?
post 1599415151 03-09-2020, 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted By Rai9⏩
Lmao this.

Also, I'm new af in stocks, but I'm guessing buying shares in Apple, Tesla, and Disney can't hurt when they drop a little lower right guys?
Buy stocks in bodybags, crematoriums etc.
post 1599418551 03-09-2020, 11:07 PM
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#143
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Originally Posted By OPGenesis⏩
I have 2.5 million in cash. Ready to enter the market very soon.

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post 1599418901 03-09-2020, 11:15 PM
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oil down cause saudi is in oil war with russia, ppl selling is idiots unless your selling oil. Dow was brought down by oil price slash by the saudi arabia. Then bunch of fools sell other stocks / robin hood users losing there money selling stocks not in the oil sector.

Get yourself a financial advisor and let the pro's handle it if your on robinhood selling your stocks you need to quit and let someone who knows financing.
I just want to share the knowledge I have obtained throughout my life and hopefully change someone's life.
post 1599419011 03-09-2020, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted By momo5⏩
oil down cause saudi is in oil war with russia, ppl selling is idiots unless your selling oil.
US oil companies getting burned alive..some are gonna go under

both russia and SA have oil dependent economies. US exporting oil is only hurting them
now we are getting squeezed
(these are my opinions i am not a licensed broker by trade)
post 1599419031 03-09-2020, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted By ontclone⏩
100k waiting lol. if you guys even listen to warren buffett for like 5 mins you would be so happy right now. i guarantee i double my money in 2-3 years from now
Buffett has 100 billion of cash, he didnt want to buy stocks with it. Look at his actions and not his recent words. Also do you know what the buffett indicator is?

I am not saying by the way stocks are going to crash, actually I am long currently for a bounce. However the worldwide debt that we have created- $275 trillion, will crash the whole system one day. Is this the big one? No idea.
post 1599419191 03-09-2020, 11:20 PM
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Originally Posted By Ephedra⏩
Have about 150k in savings...might be time to learn about the stock market and buy. Right now I don't know a damn thing.
Not the time, wait until things settle, market could be 10% higher or 10% lower right now any second. It was down almost 8% today at one point.
post 1599419351 03-09-2020, 11:24 PM
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Originally Posted By HomerJThompson⏩
Buffett has 100 billion of cash, he didnt want to buy stocks with it. Look at his actions and not his recent words. Also do you know what the buffett indicator is?

I am not saying by the way stocks are going to crash, actually I am long currently for a bounce. However the worldwide debt that we have created- $275 trillion, will crash the whole system one day. Is this the big one? No idea.
when is your long expiring

there should be a bump for a while and then well bleed more again.

when is the quarterly gdp report
post 1599419401 03-09-2020, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted By x-trainer
The thinking is that any gains made over the last few years will vanish, so if you sell right now b4 your 100 dollar shares drop back down to the 10 that you paid for them, you will still be ahead.
So it is one part fear and one part not just breaking even or losing money.
This is the result, not the reason. The stocks are crashing because the current economy is built upon a sea of debt supported by tax cuts and fed interventions. Coronavirus phucked chit up, because people are in a panic, industries are getting disrupted, airline and travel industry for example are taking a huge hit. This will affect earnings , the stock market is based on future potential earnings, if earnings are taking a dive, so will stock market that depends on those earnings.

If chit gets worse, since so many companies are loaded with debt, they may go bankrupt and then it may create a domino effect.
post 1599419471 03-09-2020, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted By dunnie⏩
when is your long expiring

there should be a bump for a while and then well bleed more again.

when is the quarterly gdp report
Oh q1 gdp may be negative, i bought some late spx april calls, if it gets to 2500, I will buy some may calls. Not going long stock right now with this craziness.
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