Originally Posted By cromofo⏩

What?

Cases are on the rise virtually everywhere in Europe. We're far away from "leveling off"

1) I never said we're levelling, The hope is we eventually level off, as opposed to exponetial growth.

2) I already gave you the link, and what I'm looking at are new daily cases. They're down the last few days.

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Originally Posted By cromofo⏩

What?

Cases are on the rise virtually everywhere in Europe. We're far away from "leveling off"

It will eventually start to level off, but when exactly is a matter of speculation.

Epidemics do not grow exponentially, they grow logistically.



The rate of the growth of the curve depends on the size of the infected population, the size of the uninfected population, and the rate of infection transmission. For example, if a small population is infected, and there isn't much transmissability (e.g. the infected are appropriately quarantined), no new infections occur and the disease is "contained". If a small population is infected, the uninfected population is high, and transmission goes on unchecked, then you will see a rapid rise in cases. Eventually, once the majority of the population has been infected, with the recovered population developing immunity, we will see fewer newer cases as there are fewer people to infect.

In the US, we are far, far past containment. Any White House official who says we're "relatively contained" should promptly be ignored on these matters. The strategy now is mitigation. We can slow the rate of infection spread by appropriate social distancing, washing hands, don't touch your face, etc. That will help flatten out the curve a bit, but not end an epidemic.

Again, we should be in mitigation mode because if a bunch of people get infected at once, our hospital system will get overwhelmed. I've been in and around hospitals for the good part of last decade, either as a student or a doctor. Believe me when I say adminstrators love to cut costs whichever way possible to boost profits, not limited to employing a bare minimum of healthcare workers. It's a strained system as is.



If we can flatten the curve, hopefully we can turn this into a slow flood instead of a tsunami. While most of us young folks will likely be OK by the end of this all, we need to cast aside our idea of American exceptionalism.

What has happened in Italy can happen to us.

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Originally Posted By TaeBoNinja⏩

Someone said Italy is going back to previous dead cases and testing those too. Might explain their numbers.

To clarify, I posted that in the speculation thread because it came from an Italian source known to me who I consider trustworthythat this is what is being saidto explain their statistics. I cannot verify it with healthcare professionals.

Originally Posted By JUGGERNAUT1333⏩

That would make sense, but wouldn't that also suggest the Virus was in Italy prior to initially believed?

Not exactly. This isn't really about "old" cases, but rather that they're supposedly being meticulous about testing suspicious cases who are dyingright nowin their wards, so they're supposedly catching people who die of undifferentiated pneumonia in order to make sure they create accurate records of the death, even though they were never recorded as COVID-19 cases while alive. The official death rate is therefore getting decoupled from the official infection rate.

In general, I understand that most countries are not doing this. When China reclassified a large number of clinically confirmed cases - not confirmed by the regular test - they also reclassified the deaths resulting from those cases, because they had previously been considered general pneumonia/heart failure deaths, rather than COVID-19 deaths. In most countries, they primarily seem to be interested in identifying living cases to get them into isolation. If you die of COVID-19 and didn't get tested while you were alive, it may be the case that you never will.

Originally Posted By XterraRob⏩

Nah, fukk that. I’m not doing that.

Originally Posted By ANumber1⏩

The Era of Great Noticing has begun.
Modern liberalism is morally bankrupt and demonic.
Right wing politics is the new counter-culture.
Wincel: "I'm saying even the govt of China, while brutal at times, is NOT our enemy. Period."
Has Beowulf10 ever experienced true love? Where did he go?
Education is humanity's key to salvation.
The 2nd Cold War has begun.

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Originally Posted By NattyCory⏩

I agree, but Trump can't panic people
If you panic people like it's the end of the world, then people cause chaos

Obama didn't do anything for Ebola until 1000 Americans died
Trump put together a task force after 1 death

CDC really dropped the ball w/ the federal government not having any workings tests for months & refusing WHO tests

But, New York just called in the national guard to assist w/ outbreak in the state

Ebola? What in the flying **** are you talking about.

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