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» Death rate for COVID19 is 13% as of today
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post 1600514761 03-23-2020, 07:27 AM
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Originally Posted By MesoPeaks
We all know this virus is insanely crazy that it targets pretty much all people: fat , healthy , thin etc.
Every virus targets all people...
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post 1600515001 03-23-2020, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted By JoshSP1985
And we're primarily only testing the sickest people. I still think when the dust settles we'll see fatality rates around 1% for the population as a whole.
Originally Posted By aaron501
thats only confirmed cases, it's more likely there's 10x more people that are infected but it's so mild they dont bother getting tested.
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post 1600515011 03-23-2020, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted By wincel
Note the shape of the curve. The worst is yet to come, retards.
Well I can clearly see why you were unbanned
I don’t want a large farva, I want a goddamn liter of cola

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post 1600515151 03-23-2020, 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted By MotorCityCobra
As of now we have 115,669 registered closed cases.

Cases which had an outcome of recovered/discharged:
100,354 (87%)

Cases which had an outcome of death:
15,315 (13%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Dont let anyone fool you. This is a serious virus. Take care of your loved ones brahs
Wow, they teach marth well in Norway. Pathetic.
post 1600515631 03-23-2020, 07:38 AM
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Originally Posted By Fuqdatass
Well I can clearly see why you were unbanned
Do you mean his riveting commentary or his predilection to insult everyone?
Best thread: http://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=168274783
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post 1600517131 03-23-2020, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted By aleeboy
Back in my day, no once cared until things tipped over 50:50.

Lol at how scared little boys and normal girls are these days.
Young people with not existing preconditions have and will be hit hard by this virus. My main concern is not for myself, but for people i care about
post 1600517321 03-23-2020, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted By MotorCityCobra
Young people with not existing preconditions have and will be hit hard by this virus. My main concern is not for myself, but for people i care about
No they haven't. Stop reading articles that are nothing but anecdotes. Media are finding the exceptions.
post 1600517331 03-23-2020, 08:00 AM
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Cases where the person contracted the virus, and either didn't even notice or got sick for a few days: utterly untested

Funny how these cases are used in the denominator for mortality on the flu and common cold, but not for COVID-19
post 1600517471 03-23-2020, 08:03 AM
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Originally Posted By MotorCityCobra
Young people with not existing preconditions have and will be hit hard by this virus. My main concern is not for myself, but for people i care about
I know you are scared, young man.

Fear will overcome you and your soul. You best grow up. I have seen nothing from 95% of people that suggest they care about anyone but themselves. This is the first time I've said this on the misc in these times, but you are full of **** man. You will be judged come the day for your cowardice and lies. Please grow up. I can feel your weakness vibes
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post 1600517761 03-23-2020, 08:08 AM
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So OP didn't specify closed cases. Whatever.

On another forum a couple of math types modeling the virus seem to have both decided that tracking deaths is the only "good" number we have right now due to the lack of testing.

I don't think the final rate will be 13% either, just saying it may be years before we have a real grasp on the number of total infections, if ever.

Same guys (and a few others) are saying R0 is about 4.
Originally Posted By wincel
Note the shape of the curve. The worst is yet to come, retards.
From a monster thread on another forum. There was a scarier chart posted and quoted multiple times that now I don't see.

Spoiler!




Originally Posted By MesoPeaks
We all know this virus is insanely crazy that it targets pretty much all people: fat , healthy , thin etc.
From Italian data most common underlying health condition among the deceased was high blood pressure at 75%.
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post 1600517981 03-23-2020, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted By MotorCityCobra
Young people with not existing preconditions have and will be hit hard by this virus. My main concern is not for myself, but for people i care about
Veracity completely unknown, but here you go:

Spoiler!
"...I am an Anesthesiologist resident (in Italy we have Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Unit Residency Program in 5 years, I am attending the third year). Actually, I do really spend most of my time in ER and "critical care units" that are the hospital wards we converted in "covid wards" to better treat this patients. I am writing from Milan, which is, actually, the most affected city in Italy. To be honest, situation is dramatic. We had to create 4 new intensive care units to treat intubated patients, all patients in "critical care units" are on Cpap from 8 to 12 hours a day and their p/f is never more than 120. Our biggest trouble is that we are now noticing that even 40 or less yrs old men are developing very bad pneumonia. Best satisfactions come from prone positioning cpap, prone positioning mechanical ventilation (even 18 hrs a day) and mechanical ventilation itself.

My personal impression is that mechanical ventilation is essential in this kind of patient. Most of the time, typical patients arrives in ER with mild dyspnoea, cough and fever (even 39°C or more). Even if spo2 is 90% you can easily find PaO2 of 50 or less and end stage compensation is near so they can easily need rapid intubation or they'll die in acute respiratory distress

These are very interesting questions. Until now we were testing all patients who arrived in Emergency department with respiratory failure. First problem is that this patients have no symptoms until they become really sick. Now we are in a very difficult situation. 80-85% of critical patients are men, over 30 yrs old, no linkage to smoke/vaping or other comorbidities. Now we have a lot of troubles in taking care of new cases. Our "911 service" cannot take care of all respiratory patients, they are dying in their house with no care. Our triage rules are to treat in icu only "young" people (less than 60 yrs old) with 'light' comorbidities. Active cancer patients are the most challenging choices to do. I believe 3-6% of mortality can be real. One one hand you have to consider that a lot of asymptomatic/paucisymptomatic patients are not tested for Sars-cov swab,so mortality could be less than 3-6%. On the other hand, a lot of mild flu/pneumonia in elderly patients are not tested "after death" so there are a lot of ignored covid patients. Maybe they would have died even for a common bacterial pneumonia, we cannot know. Other problem, all the intubated patient don't improve "fastly". ICUs are full of ventilated 40yrs old patients and they don't improve... If you want I can't try to translate our covid "vademecum" to better explain the situation... When you'll be in Italy, obviously, let me know!

I don't know what is the difference, maybe it is a mutated strain. Today we have had 600 death in respiratory failure CoViD patients. Italy is in quarantine, everyone must to stay at home, no-one can move from home except to buy food and social fundamental works as hospitals and food markets. Anyway, here healthcare workers don't take any prophylactic medication, but -in my little experience- people taking ACE inhibitors and ARBs have worse outcome. In our hospital we have obtained your Giapreza (angiotensin II) to give to our patients and it seems that giapreza improves outcome and vital signs (just 50 cases anyway). Our therapeutic plan for patients includes chloroquine, tocilizumab, antiretrovirals, anakinra and no steroids at all. Please, be safe. When we have to stay nearby a CoViD patient we always wear a single-use cap, a single-use coat, shoe-covers, double gloves and goggles or face shield with a N100 mask. Despite all these, my first anesthesiologist tutor is now intubated and mechanically ventilated in ICU (36 years old female). BE SAFE, you and your family, paucisymptomatic people are everywhere. Avoid crowded places, wash frequently hands, neck and face. We thought it would be "nothing more than common flu" and now all italian ICUs are full of CoViD patients...Please, feel free to ask for anything.
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post 1600518101 03-23-2020, 08:14 AM
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#42
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Originally Posted By MesoPeaks
Saw a youtube video earlier and it's now 320,000+ confirmed cases across the globe.
H1N1 had a billion with 500k+ deaths.
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post 1600518111 03-23-2020, 08:14 AM
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Bias


We need to account for all people who are infected vs the death toll.

We also need to factor in pre existing health conditions and, somehow, the percentage of people who showed no symptoms.


Either way though, stay safe *******s. There no clear way of knowing whether or not you will be one of the people who gets hit hard by this virus
post 1600519191 03-23-2020, 08:30 AM
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#44
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Originally Posted By ScottTil
misrepresenting the stats in the title
13 % of closed cases, not of all cases
this
post 1600519511 03-23-2020, 08:36 AM
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#45
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Originally Posted By MotorCityCobra
As of now we have 115,669 registered closed cases.

Cases which had an outcome of recovered/discharged:
100,354 (87%)

Cases which had an outcome of death:
15,315 (13%)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Dont let anyone fool you. This is a serious virus. Take care of your loved ones brahs
Why with the misleading fearing tactics?

15k global deaths from those infected but what's the world's population? What's the demographic of those infected who died? Another person who likes to just show a total without delving into the details. Here's some math 13% of 90% are not going to die. The global death rate was 0.05%, so that's gone up a bit more with 5k new deaths. 2.5k of the new deaths where from Italy.

1/3 of those 15k are from ITALY. Only a few countries are continuing to be the bulk of deaths statistics because they have a huge 65+ age population while they waited to late to lock things down. The other countries deaths are from those already suffering from conditions such as obesity and diabetes.

How about you post the reality and not the doomsday version?

Every day new countries go on the list for a smoother curve and control, including Germany, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia - a whole continent only has 7 deaths. Places like New Zealand:Zerodeaths.

People like you are what's causing more panic. This virus is LOW VIRULENCE, there are ALREADY CURES that have been tested and proven with combinations of established antibiotics and vaccines. It just has to go through all the bureaucracy before getting approved.

15k deaths in 3-4 months is NOTHING in comparison to what we've had in the past. What's your whole fuking point here? Make things worse so your day feels good? The majority of the world is sitting in the 8k and under bracket and most of those are either elderly or have serious pre-existing conditions.

I get a feeling you want this to be bad, you want this to be worse, because why throw up a title that is a half truth and doesn't properly explain the scenario we are in?
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post 1600519771 03-23-2020, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted By meanstringbean
Lmao no it isnt

The true death rate is less than 1%.


In Ohio we have 400+ cases. 3 deaths, median age of dead is 85

Majority of deaths come from people both elderly and with a pre-existing condition



If you’re scared of this disease itself you’re a grade a Poosay


Should be more scared of the economy
huge iq move there brah, using a smaller sample size to prove your point
may god forgive me
post 1600519991 03-23-2020, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted By MotorCityCobra
Young people with not existing preconditions have and will be hit hard by this virus. My main concern is not for myself, but for people i care about
More like they don’t even realize they have the virus because it’s so weak lmao


Can’t imagine the mindset of someone legitimately scared of this thing
post 1600520081 03-23-2020, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted By nestbrother
huge iq move there brah, using a smaller sample size to prove your point
If you knew anything about statistics you’d know a sample size of 400 is just as representative as one of 400,000



Lol dumbass do you even math?
post 1600520131 03-23-2020, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted By katya422
So OP didn't specify closed cases. Whatever.

On another forum a couple of math types modeling the virus seem to have both decided that tracking deaths is the only "good" number we have right now due to the lack of testing.

I don't think the final rate will be 13% either, just saying it may be years before we have a real grasp on the number of total infections, if ever.

Same guys (and a few others) are saying R0 is about 4.



From a monster thread on another forum. There was a scarier chart posted and quoted multiple times that now I don't see.

Spoiler!








From Italian data most common underlying health condition among the deceased was high blood pressure at 75%.
exponential growth is sadly the most criminally underregarded notion in history in spite of its extraordinary importance to life
post 1600520361 03-23-2020, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted By meanstringbean
If you knew anything about statistics you’d know a sample size of 400 is just as representative as one of 400,000



Lol dumbass do you even math?
The bigger the sample size, the more reliable the results.

I know of 2 people that tested positive for coronavirus, neither died. Therefore the death rate is 0%.

Understand, yank?
may god forgive me
post 1600520631 03-23-2020, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted By nestbrother
The bigger the sample size, the more reliable the results.

I know of 2 people that tested positive for coronavirus, neither died. Therefore the death rate is 0%.

Understand, yank?
Yea, there is a difference between a sample of 2 and 20, and then 20 and 200, but once it reaches over 250 or so it doesnt matter. A sample of voters in the U.S. that is 1,000 people or 100,000 people are virtually the exact same in terms of reliability.
post 1600520781 03-23-2020, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted By meanstringbean
Yea, there is a difference between a sample of 2 and 20, and then 20 and 200, but once it reaches over 250 or so it doesnt matter. A sample of voters in the U.S. that is 1,000 people or 100,000 people are virtually the exact same in terms of reliability.
Why have you picked 250?
may god forgive me
post 1600521111 03-23-2020, 08:56 AM
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Only because of Italy's old useless people where I'm from its less than 2%.
post 1600521361 03-23-2020, 09:00 AM
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People who are going to die tend to die fairly quickly, there are tonnes of people who are going to recover who just haven't passed the 14 days and 2 negative tests required to be certified recovered.

Also people with more severe symptoms are more liekly to inquire about testing and visit a hospital. There are countless people who have the sniffles who aren't bothering.
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post 1600521491 03-23-2020, 09:01 AM
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nothing to be scared of lmao.

brb going around licking everything, sneezing and coughing openly
go no contact NOW
post 1600521671 03-23-2020, 09:04 AM
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#56
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don't let anyone fool you

rolling up all numbers from different countries all into one



choose one
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post 1600521791 03-23-2020, 09:05 AM
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Germany: 27k infected, 115 deaths

These numbers are bullchit, Italy are not testing properly. No fuking way the death rate is that high there while Germany's rate is at 0.6%

If you test more people guarantee the numbers of real infected are 10x, which also explains how it's spreading like wildfire
post 1600522161 03-23-2020, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted By JoshSP1985
And we're primarily only testing the sickest people. I still think when the dust settles we'll see fatality rates around 1% for the population as a whole.
This. The number of people who have or had it but weren't tested and counted must be off the charts. You also have to consider the death rates between developed and less developed countries.
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