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» Oldcels, is 2020 as bad as 2008?
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post 1617643131 09-26-2020, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted By climberbrah
Not true at all the economy is actually in pretty decent shape now that places are opening back up.
Love to see your working there

Trump has spent (borrowed) just as much as the entire gdp growth he has ‘created’.. and that was before covid. Uk is just the same. So was a lot of Western Europe.

2020 is going to play out far, far worse than 2008. We aren’t there yet. Major entire industries either not coming back or on life support for the foreseeable. That’s on top of massive unsustainable government borrowing.
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https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=184693083
post 1617643271 09-26-2020, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted By samsbolton
Love to see your working there

Trump has spent (borrowed) just as much as the entire gdp growth he has ‘created’.. and that was before covid. Uk is just the same. So was a lot of Western Europe.

2020 is going to play out far, far worse than 2008. We aren’t there yet. Major entire industries either not coming back or on life support for the foreseeable. That’s on top of massive unsustainable government borrowing.
We never fixed the underlying problems that have been festering in Western countries over the last 4 decades like outsourcing, wage stagnation, and wealth inequality. The coronavirus is the final nail in the coffin.
I hate capitalism srs
post 1617643721 09-26-2020, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted By AgBrah
2008 was worse, no question.

Right now you see a strong housing Sellers market. You see elevated costs for RV’s, dirtbikes and other high priced recreational items.

Asset prices haven’t flinched- land, etc.

In 2020, Free money getting sent out, additional unemployment. No safety net existed in 2008.




In 2008, houses were worth half. People couldn’t get rid of things quick enough. It was a race to the bottom. Absolute despair.


I try to explain it to younger people in real life and I can’t produce the words or narrative that captures the feeling of how truly fuked we were.
This ‘free’ money is no such thing.. it’s borrowed, sovereign debt is utterly out of control. Asset inflation is more likely dollar devaluation, which you aren’t yet feeling. Uk is the same.

I’ve spoken to quite a few very accomplished Wall Street/city types. None of them have a clue what the end game is, which is the scariest thing of all
2023 bertie awards 2024 nominations

https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=184693083
post 1617644301 09-26-2020, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted By MustardTiger17
2020 is worse than the great depression
Definitely not. When lock-downs lift people will go back to life like normal pretty much.

People in 2020 have no idea what true hardship is. The great depression had lasting effects on people that lived through it. Effects that lasted their entire lives.

When ordinary people start digging through dumpsters looking for food. Start killing their pet cats and dogs to eat. Quit throwing away all food left-overs and most items of debris (Because it can be repurposed). Etc. then maybe things will be as bad as the great depression.




Originally Posted By BabcocksHair
2008 sounds crazy as a wagecel during that time. imagine being about 33-34 years old. graduate college in 2008 recover then get slammed again in 2020. Sad.
I'm 33. I don't remember 2008 being that bad. But in South Louisiana we didn't get hit as hard as a lot of other places.


To be fair Rona here wasn't that bad either as we only had a couple of weeks of shut downs. Then people started opening businesses back up which was largely ignored by local law enforcement.

I think most people stayed home for about a week tops and during that second week they said screw it and started venturing out here.
post 1617645111 09-26-2020, 09:07 AM
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I'm 40 and this is the worst year I've seen by far. It's literally gotten worse every month and there is a good chance 2021 will be even worse than this year. People who got hit hard in 08 are the ones that panicked and sold stocks or houses, everyone else just waited and it all came back plus some. We are about to see over a year of 0% interest from the Fed and stimulus amounts that are so absurdly high nothing even close has been done before. Just wait until the unemployment runs out and all of those companies and jobs never come back.
post 1617645181 09-26-2020, 09:08 AM
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Originally Posted By BabcocksHair
The job market/economy is just absolutely haram this year do to the bullsht lockdowns. With no end in sight. Talks of a second lockdown/increasing restrictions again. Are we gonna make it oldbrahs?
2008 was 10x worse financially.

2020 is bad socially.
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post 1617645231 09-26-2020, 09:09 AM
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For making money 08 was worse.
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post 1617646621 09-26-2020, 09:35 AM
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People saying 08-09 was worse economically are living in a delusional dream world.

TARP was $475 billion. We have already spent 3 times that and will probably spend at least another 1.5 trillion. The economic consequences of what we have done haven't even started yet. Anyone with half a brain knew we would get a pent up demand/stimulus boost after things opened back up and that we pulled 1.5 trillion dollars forward from the future.

Probably 7-10 years to actually clear this from here if things go well. If things don't go well we could end up not clearing this and not closing the output gap before the next downturn. Then we are in a legit downward economic spiral.
post 1617647071 09-26-2020, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted By Seamanbeast
I'm 40 and this is the worst year I've seen by far. It's literally gotten worse every month and there is a good chance 2021 will be even worse than this year. People who got hit hard in 08 are the ones that panicked and sold stocks or houses, everyone else just waited and it all came back plus some. We are about to see over a year of 0% interest from the Fed and stimulus amounts that are so absurdly high nothing even close has been done before. Just wait until the unemployment runs out and all of those companies and jobs never come back.
I agree a lot of companies/businesses are going to go down forever. But that's going to make room for new businesses with better leadership.
Originally Posted By powerlifterer
People saying 08-09 was worse economically are living in a delusional dream world.

TARP was $475 billion. We have already spent 3 times that and will probably spend at least another 1.5 trillion. The economic consequences of what we have done haven't even started yet. Anyone with half a brain knew we would get a pent up demand/stimulus boost after things opened back up and that we pulled 1.5 trillion dollars forward from the future.

Probably 7-10 years to actually clear this from here.
I think Trump takes 2020 and by the time his next term is over the economy has a damn near complete recovery.

Trump's major running point was a soaring market, low unemployment, bringing business back to America, etc. The pandemic provided the left a good opportunity to tank all of that and through misinformation, lies, and fear they managed to get the country locked down.


Jokes on them. They pretty much made Trump a lock for 2020. He'll have the economy going again before he exits office.
post 1617647081 09-26-2020, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted By powerlifterer
People saying 08-09 was worse economically are living in a delusional dream world.

TARP was $475 billion. We have already spent 3 times that and will probably spend at least another 1.5 trillion. The economic consequences of what we have done haven't even started yet. Anyone with half a brain knew we would get a pent up demand/stimulus boost after things opened back up and that we pulled 1.5 trillion dollars forward from the future.

Probably 7-10 years to actually clear this from here.
This! It amazes me how financially illiterate the average person is. '08 was deep and a fast recession 2020 will be a long slow burn for years. We cant even have a interest rate of .01% lmfaoo not good!
post 1617647181 09-26-2020, 09:45 AM
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2008 was so bad that we still haven't recovered from it


Back then you could have your Masters and still not find a fast food job, that was the time they started doing away with part-time employment positions

2020 doesn't even come close
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post 1617650691 09-26-2020, 10:49 AM
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2008 was much worse in my sphere.

Finding work was really hard and competitive. Just about every entry level position I applied for had multiple applicants with much more experience than me.

Foreclosures were really common. There were housing developments stopped mid-construction, lots of heavy equipment just sat there for a year or two. Lots that had been cleared for construction were overgrown with weeds and stuff. It took a good 4 years to digest the insane inventory of houses.

Dirty hippies of OWS were annoying.
post 1617651151 09-26-2020, 10:56 AM
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2008 was really bad. 2020 is bad but nothing compared to 2008. Neither 2008 nor 2020 compare to the Great Depression.

2020 with its high unemployment and stock market that pretty much shrugged it off. The virus, cultural, and political issues of 2020 may make some think 2020 is worse than 2008 but it’s just not true. 2008 hit everyone hard and fast and the recovery was very uneven. The recovery for 2020 will probably be the same and be very skewed.
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post 1617651401 09-26-2020, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted By tryn2change
2008 was really bad. 2020 is bad but nothing compared to 2008. Neither 2008 nor 2020 compare to the Great Depression.

2020 with its high unemployment and stock market that pretty much shrugged it off. The virus, cultural, and political issues of 2020 may make some think 2020 is worse than 2008 but it’s just not true. 2008 hit everyone hard and fast and the recovery was very uneven. The recovery for 2020 will probably be the same and be very skewed.
let's pretend like 2020 is over cause it isn't.
post 1617654071 09-26-2020, 11:33 AM
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I understand where you are coming from. The election and protests could really derail things but we shall see in the next few months.

I would say 2020 has been just a period of adaption. Buying extra desks for wife to work from home and for my kid for remote learning. Purchase more outdoor furniture sets and a bar set etc to make life at home more comfortable. I know the unemployment numbers are bad but it’s mainly concentrated in service industries. I just can’t reconcile the unemployment numbers with gains in my 401k & Roth. That’s why for me and my friends 2020 has been like a freaking dream. Work from home, full pay with benefits intact, no commute, goof off more etc. there are downsides with not being to take long vacations and dealing with online school but compared to 2008 - 2020 has largely been a cakewalk.
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post 1617654351 09-26-2020, 11:36 AM
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2008-2009 gas prices went through the roof.. Over $5 per gallon in my state and $7-$8 in others. There was a legit worry on everybody's face back then. People were sad, scared, and uncertain. Traffic went light too. Million of foreclosures, and millions lost their homes.

2020 has been an insane overreaction, people have more money than ever, and everyone has gone buck wild.
post 1617657371 09-26-2020, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted By BabcocksHair
The job market/economy is just absolutely haram this year do to the bullsht lockdowns. With no end in sight. Talks of a second lockdown/increasing restrictions again. Are we gonna make it oldbrahs?
We are in the middle of like 4 crisis at once. It’s def worse. Economy was more phucked in 2008 imo
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post 1617658691 09-26-2020, 12:41 PM
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I don’t think it’s even close to being as bad as 2008. People were legit starving and getting laid off at a high rate. Peeps getting kicked out of their homes.

With that said, I think this is still bad, but it’s selective. It depends on which state and city you live in. It also depends on your profession. Tradies have it hard in liberal cities.
post 1617658721 09-26-2020, 12:41 PM
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The problem with 2020 is that we now live in a clown world and that's starting to dawn on everyone that the current form of cultural, social, economic and overall systemic organization of our society is probably collapsing. What will come after nobody knows, could be worse, could be better, could be just different, could be first worse then better, could be first better long-term worse. Nobody knows.

In 2008 only a few thought things were completely systemically wrong, if anything people discussed only that capitalism had systemic failures, not that the overall societal fabric is about to collapse. 2020 is starting to hint at the fact that the West as a whole is civilizationally collapsing or if you want to be optimistic going through a major re-formulation of its own basic foundations, for better or worse. I would typically look at this as an opportunity to reinforce what was good about the West, nuclear family, christian morals, work ethic, delayed gratification etc. and worry about the economic infrastructure later, however there is a large mass of, for the lack of better word, trannies, suicidal liberals and other deviants backed by global capital parasites whose sole purpose is totalitarian global control who are fighting to completely undermine western civilizational foundations and build a totalitarian global hellhole where all money and social justice will be dispensed by a small elite who will decide about every facet of your life and the life of slaves with trannies and deviants making up the bureaucratic class. This is the old communist system (I know people who have experienced it first hand) by the way only on a global scale. In fact ironically, USA with identity politics is today the biggest exporter of communism, at least Americans were smart enough to vote for Trump, he might be a megalomaniac with a narcissistic disorder but he is heterosexual, patriotic and in favor of freedom.
post 1617658991 09-26-2020, 12:46 PM
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Everything changed after 2012
post 1617659011 09-26-2020, 12:47 PM
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I cannot imagine what life would be like if trannies win, that the marxist suicidal limp-wristed academics get to see the world they envision....it's literally hell on earth for everyone resembling a normal human being. This is a battle of the free people versus the deviants backed by global oligarchs who want you fighting against eachother until they slowly seize all control and "dispense" their social justice from the top. Makes me puke just thinking about it.
post 1617659081 09-26-2020, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted By DTRrex
This dude knows.
Thanks brah.

Source: Tier one intelligence, and I am probably the only professional Economist on the misc.
post 1617659641 09-26-2020, 12:58 PM
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2008 was much worse. That was a legit economic collapse.
There is a sense that 2020 is manufactured crisis, things will bounce back.
post 1617662981 09-26-2020, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted By AgBrah
2008 was worse, no question.

Right now you see a strong housing Sellers market. You see elevated costs for RV’s, dirtbikes and other high priced recreational items.

Asset prices haven’t flinched- land, etc.

In 2020, Free money getting sent out, additional unemployment. No safety net existed in 2008.




In 2008, houses were worth half. People couldn’t get rid of things quick enough. It was a race to the bottom. Absolute despair.


I try to explain it to younger people in real life and I can’t produce the words or narrative that captures the feeling of how truly fuked we were.
Given that we still have a moratorium on Foreclosures, any damage to the housing market will not begin to show until sometime next year, and there definitely will be some(unless people's delinquent mortgage payments are excused or something, which is doubtful). But it's not going to be anything close to 2008.
post 1617663071 09-26-2020, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted By SmithMachineGuy
2008 was much worse. That was a legit economic collapse.
There is a sense that 2020 is manufactured crisis, things will bounce back.
Yep, I think this drop was needed to insure steady economic growth for the next decade. As you saw when they raised interest rates in 2008 and the markets immediately took a nosedive, the markets needed to shake some of the weak hands out.
post 1617663381 09-26-2020, 01:59 PM
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Took me 6 months and 700 applications to find a job in this Rona market with a masters in engineering. I literally ran out of EE job openings in the United States around the 2nd month, it was just the same Monster postings over and over again.

Don't know how '08 lines up in comparison, but 2020 can zuk a fat one.
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post 1617664091 09-26-2020, 02:10 PM
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2008 was way way worse but this aint over yet so well see.

I graduated college in 09, literally applied for hundreds of jobs (300ish), had 8 total interviews and one job offer ($8 bank teller 50 minutes away) that I politely declined.

I gave up around 2011-2012, I have 2 degrees and 2 good personal training certifications and I work a blue collar job at a factory.

I cant speak for all of the US, but in my area, there are tons of places desperately looking to hire people at $15-20+/hour + good benefits.
post 1617664311 09-26-2020, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted By FA*******
Took me 6 months and 700 applications to find a job in this Rona market with a masters in engineering. I literally ran out of EE job openings in the United States around the 2nd month, it was just the same Monster postings over and over again.

Don't know how '08 lines up in comparison, but 2020 can zuk a fat one.
I graduated from a top university in 2008(admittedly with a less than perfect degree). I didn't get my first real job until 2012.

There's absolutely no chance this comes even close to 2008. If the government allowed credit markets to freeze up back in March it could have happened, but they threw enough money at the situation to insure this will not turn into a deep economic contraction.
post 1617667901 09-26-2020, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens
Given that we still have a moratorium on Foreclosures, any damage to the housing market will not begin to show until sometime next year, and there definitely will be some(unless people's delinquent mortgage payments are excused or something, which is doubtful).But it's not going to be anything close to 2008.
Maybe.

OCC Reports Decline In Mortgage Performance
The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, Second Quarter 2020 showed 91.1 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, compared to 96.1 percent a year earlier.

The percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages—mortgages that are 60 or more days past due and all mortgages held by bankrupt borrowers whose payments are 30 or more days past due— increased 5.4 percent from the previous quarter and 5.3 percent from a year ago.
https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/n...-2020-126.html

Highest Delinquency Rate In 21 Years
As of April, the portion of mortgages that changed from on time to 30 days past due spiked to 3.4%, representing the highest reading in at least 21 years, according to CoreLogic.
The 3.4% reading is more than 50% higher than 2008's peak of 2.0%, signaling that more Americans have been negatively affected by the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic than they were by the great financial crisis.
The government did a couple of things to buy time-
“As the true impact of the economic shutdown during the second quarter of 2020 becomes clearer,we can expect to see a rise in delinquencies in the next 12-18 months – especially as forbearance periods under the CARES Act come to a close,”said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

While several servicers including the FHA and the FHFA extended moratoriums for those in forbearance, the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due jumped to 3.4% in April 2020, up from 0.7% in April 2019 – the highest transition rate since January 1999.

Prior to the financial crisis in January 2007, the 30-day transition rate was 1.2% and only ever peaked in November 2008 at 2%, the report said.
https://www.housingwire.com/articles...ears-in-april/

Some speculation by CoreLogic on where home prices are going:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles...perfect-storm/

And this article outlines how the recovery from 2008 was staged.Maybe most relevant to the present situation is the revelation that a lot of mortgages are now serviced by non-bank servicers that do not report to the OCC and may not be subject to the same standards as banks. We (the public) don't actually know what is going on with these mortgages at this time.
For years now, data providers, mortgage servicers and lenders have done their best to hide the real mortgage situation from the public. The largest data providers have never explained why the number of mortgages in their databases has shrunk so dramatically. For example, the largest banks serviced nearly 2/3 of all first liens in 2011 and their data was reported quarterly to their regulator — the Office of the Controller of the Currency (OCC). By 2019, that had plunged to less than 1/3.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...old-2020-04-02
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post 1617668741 09-26-2020, 03:04 PM
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Can someone educate how bad it was In 2008 compared to today? Was only 12 in 2008
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