I did some simple calculations

I added the exact amount of much Trump over performed in 2016 in each battleground state (or underperformed in the case of arizona -0.5 below RCP AVG) to his current aggregate averages in 2020 on RCP. Only the district electoral votes were assumed to be the same as they were for 2016 because there isn't really any data on polls, however changes in though dramatically

The same with bidens current averages +/- hillary over/under performances in 2016 per state polls. Compared them to trumps to see who came out ahead in each case.

Results as stated:

MN came at exactly 50/50, left as a toss up and Arizona came out with Biden +0.1. Trump cannot win if this happens, however he can tie if he won MN, he has a 17% chance of tying



(IF Arizona was flipped to 50-50 toss up the odds essentially flip flop with trump winning 81/100 and trump winning 100% if he wins Arizona. )



If Trump carried MN but lost arizona it's a certain tie (ignore that for w/e reason they didn't add DC's +3 electoral votes)



In a trump tie/win scenario playing with a lost partial state (i.e. maine or nebraska) bring his chances down dramatically to win to <20ish and increases the chances to tie or loss significantly.

Obviously it will not play out to these exacts but it should give you some perspective to the relatively uphill batter he has to win despite even if he was to outperform the exact same way he did in 2016 (and how he can still win). Hopefully I'm dead wrong but I'd have to say everything I see is in line with the forecast models giving him a 5-10% chance of winning. Tightening up in battleground states will bring up his chances but it looks rough.

-Yeah there could be a huge secret trump vote
-Yes the polls could be systemically biased in a huge way

Both of these could play and he could tie or lose before winning.

But he could still win and this is where his 5-10% lie and it will stay this way unless a video of Joe Biden having sex with a horse comes out this weekend.

One thing we don't consider is the possibility that one or more states are unable to certify results in time for the EC to vote. It's a very slim possibility, but one nonetheless. We could see a situation where not all states cast their votes when the time comes.

Biden isn't winning Arizona or Michigan.

That x2

AZ, WI and MI all going Trump.

OP knows less about politics than the NFL

So you're telling the polls are even worse in 2020 thus fully confirming what we already knew.

I would give the polls a slightly higher Trump bias this year than in 2016 because it's clearly more frowned upon to support Trump now than it was in 2016.

So you are all arguing that the polls will be even worst than 2020? It's possible but there isn't any evidence you can point to and cite. The forecast take into the possibility of systemic fake polls and that's why drop is given a 5-10% chance. I'd love to here why you feel this way besides any empirical evidence (Poll seems bias, trump signs, 2016 was wrong etc etc)

This.

I don’t trust the polling in Pennsylvania having Trump down so far. IMO it will stay red. Enthusiasm on the ground there is insane. You see similar levels of enthusiasm in Ohio and Florida.

Now people confident in Michigan I don’t quite understand. The polling there is almost as bad as it is in places like Maine (statewide). Seems unattainable at this point IMO even adjusting for the hidden Trump vote. But that doesn’t matter because if Trump wins FL & PA, he wins the election.

So you are basing these maps based off how wrong the polls were last time, all else remains constant? Interesting. Here's two factors that should be considered: the polls are even more wrong this year. Not only are there shy voters, but you have the "dad Jokers" who think its funny to lie to the pollsters. This is 100% a real phenomena that is happening this election.

Secondly, using the "outperformance" from last year doesn't take into factor how much trump's base has grown this year. He's made gains in almost every demographic. Don't believe; just talk to your fellow people. I bet you can't find a single person who voted for Trump in 2016 and isn't voting for him again this time. On the flip side, there are MANY people who did not vote in 2016 or did not vote for trump last time, and are voting for Trump this time. Personally, I know 7 people in the latter category, and I haven't even talked to that many people about it.

Trump is getting over 350

Yes

Those factors are why he has a 5-10% like I’m a broken record now

Maybe Taflager polls prove to be right again but unlike 2016 no other polls are showing a national tightening. In 2016 near the end several polls had it a very tight race and then trump ahead

I understand Arizona being up for debate, but how is Michigan a "lock" for trump?



Biden is currently leading Michigan by 8......

Because dumb fuk Trumpers believe that they hate Whitmer when in fact her approval rating is way higher than Trump’s

Zero chance Trump wins Michigan this year

Oh look who called it

Lmao wrong again

How many times do I have to say I warned you Trumpers

I called this election with stunning accuracy, now I am predicting Trump is currently doing great for the 2024 election with my poll analysis. Tune in for updated results in fall

https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showt...post1698587743

Agreed. In retrospect Trump was getting mollywhopped in the 2020 polls. It was only the assumption that an anti-Trump bias in polling was underreporting support (which it was, just not by enough to win) that anyone gave him a chance.

This time it’s different. That’s what the R&P libs don’t understand. This is the only time in history Trump hasn’t been the underdog. He’s been leading nearly every single national and swing state poll since roughly October 2023. The longer it goes on, the harder it is to imagine a loss.

Good luck finding the horse willing to be seen with Dementia Joe, would be terrible optics for the horse.

Thank you for this amazing analysis, OP.Over 350 failed lawsuits?

It was looking great on election night until arizona got called, just like I predicted that was win Biden essentially had the election in the bag

Going back and looking at election threads is always good for a laugh.
This forum is full of the most delusional people that have internet access.

There's was a guy here from Canada who believed Trump was not only going to win the black/minority voter, but was going to crush Biden with it...I dont think hes been back since lol

Lol, fuark I remember that guy. Forgot his username. Wasn’t he a ****** Maybe if Blumpf wins he’ll come back. Kind of like how that badmonkeyfunker guy dropped off the face of the earth after Hilldawg lost and came back after Brandon won.

You’re seeing the same delusional chit this time around too though. People people are predicting #blexit again, believe Blumpf is ahead with Hispanics, people thinking he’s polling even in the northeast, etc. That GuineaDago guy is predicting a popular vote win. Just lol at that.

Your need to cope is understandable given the SCOTUS ruling today

I think he was Turkish??

It's been proven that badmonkeyfunker is either Metroins alt or his wife. 100% ded srs