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Forum » **Un-OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XIII -- Robber Baron Edition
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Thread: **Un-OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XIII -- Robber Baron Edition

post 1631293133 02-13-2021, 10:43 AM
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#1441
  1. _zman
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
The more likely reality is that everything is cyclical and this is merely another ring around the rosie
Everything is cyclical. We're overdue for another recession. QE can only prolong the inevitable so long.

One of my sister's is day trading, knows nothing about stocks, banking, finance etc. I don't have the heart to tell her you have to pay capital gains on the earnings...but i'm not sure how Robin Hood handles that or if they even give you the tax forms...
Originally Posted By topperstyle⏩
Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?
Yeah, when it happens, it should be worse than the past bears. I'm sure it'll set off a slew of circuit breakers. The thing is, I don't know how much % wise what the new retail investors have in the market vs what institutions have and retirement accounts. But it's more money than ever before, I'd imagine. Due to their liquidity, panic selling will happen much easier.
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post 1631293513 02-13-2021, 10:50 AM
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#1442
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Originally Posted By topperstyle⏩
Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?
It seems conceivable, especially when things open up again and people start looking at their stonk gains as a post-pandemic outlet for pent up consumerism

Vacations, new vehicle purchases, other toys, dining out and partying... I’d expect an absolutely massive surge when we can just barely start to see COVID in our rear view mirrors. We’ll go from minimal spending in these areas to overwhelming demand in very short order.
post 1631293633 02-13-2021, 10:52 AM
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#1443
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Yeah, when it happens, it should be worse than the past bears. I'm sure it'll set off a slew of circuit breakers. The thing is, I don't know how much % wise what the new retail investors have in the market vs what institutions have and retirement accounts. But it's more money than ever before, I'd imagine. Due to their liquidity, panic selling will happen much easier.
Can’t wait. Have another $80k cash ready to drop.
Always Neg Back Crew.
post 1631293723 02-13-2021, 10:54 AM
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#1444
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Just put $1.5K in Fundrise. Gonna see if it will outperform my REIT portfolio.
post 1631293733 02-13-2021, 10:54 AM
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#1445
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Originally Posted By topperstyle⏩
Will the acceleration of novice retail investors entering the market vis a vis online casinos such as Robinhood, etc cause a catastrophic panic-sell type correction in 2021?
I mean GME guys are still holding their bags
Dallas Mavericks
post 1631293953 02-13-2021, 10:56 AM
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#1446
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I for one, cant wait for a huge crash, so I can invest big on the market.
post 1631294623 02-13-2021, 11:06 AM
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#1447
  1. topperstyle
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
Everything is cyclical. We're overdue for another recession. QE can only prolong the inevitable so long.

One of my sister's is day trading, knows nothing about stocks, banking, finance etc. I don't have the heart to tell her you have to pay capital gains on the earnings...but i'm not sure how Robin Hood handles that or if they even give you the tax forms...



Yeah, when it happens, it should be worse than the past bears. I'm sure it'll set off a slew of circuit breakers. The thing is, I don't know how much % wise what the new retail investors have in the market vs what institutions have and retirement accounts. But it's more money than ever before, I'd imagine. Due to their liquidity, panic selling will happen much easier.
The problem with the more recent retail investors is many have only seen stonks go up, so when a correction comes it can be exacerbating by emotional trades that just generate more downward momentum.

Let’s be honest, tons of novice investors are holding big money in Tesla, and other memes. Once you break the seal on a genuine bearish move it could have (as carbon has mentioned many times) market wide implications.
post 1631294713 02-13-2021, 11:07 AM
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#1448
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Originally Posted By Steavie⏩
I mean GME guys are still holding their bags
Big difference in collective austist and literal bartenders with Robinhood apps
post 1631297573 02-13-2021, 11:47 AM
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#1449
  1. MediocreGains
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Originally Posted By Steavie⏩
I mean GME guys are still holding their bags
This. If anything, retail with little experience is more likely to bag hold. Someone has to when the institutional investors sell.

The velocity of the crash last year probably had a lot more to do with algos dumping than retail panic selling.
post 1631297683 02-13-2021, 11:49 AM
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#1450
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Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust⏩
Lol, you are the spac king .
Not even close.
post 1631298123 02-13-2021, 11:56 AM
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#1451
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Originally Posted By Steavie⏩
I mean GME guys are still holding their bags
I feel like a lot of those people came and lost and then quit the game.

They really need to dump at the dip and reset, even just for their psychological and emotional well being if they want to keep trading.

I wonder how many people just gave up after that.
post 1631298373 02-13-2021, 12:00 PM
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#1452
  1. MinisterOfLust
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Originally Posted By Bingo559⏩
Just put $1.5K in Fundrise. Gonna see if it will outperform my REIT portfolio.
Is Fundrise legit?
post 1631298913 02-13-2021, 12:08 PM
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#1453
  1. SillieBazzillie
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As an old dude I don't think there's ever been a sustained market like this. Since the crash of '08, other than for maybe a year, the market's gone straight up. And the market's up over 70% since its lows in March of last year. All with a chit economy. There's so much money being pumped into the economy and with interest rates so low there's nothing else to do with the money except real estate. And real estate is insane now too.

We'll clearly have a correction at some time but using any kind of historical indicator to predict it I think is almost useless these days.

My advice would be to enjoy the ride, take profits, set stops so that when the big correction comes you still retain a lot of what you've gained.
Early AM workout crew.
Holy crap dude, Satan's huge crew.
post 1631301083 02-13-2021, 12:41 PM
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#1454
  1. smashedurgfx10
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Originally Posted By MisterInfinity⏩
I for one, cant wait for a huge crash, so I can invest big on the market.
this. but i think we will first see the stocks that were hit hard by the pandemic recover. i.e. travel and tourism sectors

the 'crash' will come almost out of nowhere. it'll be after a return to normality. maybe early next year or so, when people realise that the economy is fukked.

so long as money is continually being pumped the market has nowhere to go but up
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post 1631301593 02-13-2021, 12:48 PM
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#1455
  1. topperstyle
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Originally Posted By smashedurgfx10⏩
this. but i think we will first see the stocks that were hit hard by the pandemic recover. i.e. travel and tourism sectors

the 'crash' will come almost out of nowhere. it'll be after a return to normality. maybe early next year or so, when people realise that the economy is fukked.

so long as money is continually being pumped the market has nowhere to go but up
Yes. It will be sudden and violent. The only people who will win are the few who can time the actual bottom. No one will know where that is until after it’s happened.
post 1631302273 02-13-2021, 12:57 PM
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#1456
  1. taf1968
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Starting up the ESPP at work again was a good call. The current stock price is double the purchase price from this week's buy and more than triple the purchase price of the last 2020 buy.

I was in it consistently for years before we were acquired. Then I wasn't sure if I was going to stick around and so didn't sign up for it originally. Still not sure about the sticking around part, but figured it was worth getting back in after all.
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post 1631302433 02-13-2021, 01:00 PM
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#1457
  1. MediocreGains
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Trying to time tops and bottoms is a losing game. Just look at Venom. Timed the bottom well, but then he tried to call a top and wiped himself out.
post 1631302583 02-13-2021, 01:02 PM
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#1458
  1. Venom08
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Originally Posted By topperstyle⏩
The problem with the more recent retail investors is many have only seen stonks go up, so when a correction comes it can be exacerbating by emotional trades that just generate more downward momentum.

Let’s be honest, tons of novice investors are holding big money in Tesla, and other memes. Once you break the seal on a genuine bearish move it could have (as carbon has mentioned many times) market wide implications.
Once they realize that stocks don't only go up, they will likely move away from investing. It's hard to come back when you're up 500% and suddenly see it at -50% because you were waiting for 1000% gains. There are a lot of suckers in this market rn and they won't be around a year from now, imo.
post 1631303653 02-13-2021, 01:20 PM
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#1459
  1. camaleom
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^^^ good advises

I have had my 401k with Tia and I kinda change my portfolio but it was a macro level so I started to spent "extra" income trading... and as you said: you are going to lose... part of the process but that is why I set up very lowwwww limits for trading.

With that being said: I bought into the gme and amc frenzy... made a couple Ks with gme and lost couple 100s with AMC and I got back in again this week when they touched bottom. Next week is a hearing and the SEC is looking into it so "I have a feeling" that something may happen and if doesn't then I won't lose much if any.
"Paper money is going away" - EM
post 1631306423 02-13-2021, 02:02 PM
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#1460
  1. Destor
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Man there are so many value investing gems in this one interview

post 1631307393 02-13-2021, 02:16 PM
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#1461
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What books would you guys suggest to someone getting into stock market?
Dallas Mavericks
post 1631307433 02-13-2021, 02:17 PM
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#1462
  1. HMFIC_BROWSIN
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
The nice thing about SPACs is that if you invest near NAV, even during a huge crash you're barely losing anything since there's a ~$10 floor
This is a very interesting take......

I don't really like SPACS, but will dip my baby toe in this Tuesday for IPOF
post 1631307593 02-13-2021, 02:19 PM
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#1463
  1. HMFIC_BROWSIN
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Originally Posted By Steavie⏩
What books would you guys suggest to someone getting into stock market?
Currently I'm reading "the psychology of money" and it would be GOAT-tier if you're a newb. It basically is a bunch of short examples of different famous (and infamous) traders/investors. (Madoff, buffet, rajratnam, Jesse livermore, etc)

Easy AF to read, and captivating.
post 1631307993 02-13-2021, 02:25 PM
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#1464
  1. HMFIC_BROWSIN
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I'm planning to have around $80-100k invested in various SPACs near NAV, no fuks given. Three have already popped off and yielded good profit for me.
Theyre so ridiculously speculative, but also MOON when successful, and like u said, downside protection equals "set and forget"
post 1631311913 02-13-2021, 03:16 PM
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#1465
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I'm planning to have around $80-100k invested in various SPACs near NAV, no fuks given. Three have already popped off and yielded good profit for me.
Which ones?

Im going to go on BTAQ soon
post 1631312773 02-13-2021, 03:26 PM
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#1466
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Looking at adding some WOOF CSP this Week, March 19 $25 puts are close to $250 each. I need 3/19 to come already I am loaded up. Looking to get assigned the UWMC, dont mind picking up 300 shares of DM (Desktop Metals) 3d printing metal company speculative(ARK has some( interesting future tech

1/21/22 5x OPEN 40p for $8750
5/21 1x AFRM 120p for $2160
3/19 8x APXT 15p for $1800
3/19 8x BFT 15p for $820
3/19 3x CRSR 40p for $1527
3/19 3x DM 30p for $1287
3/19 10x GIK 12.5p for $993
3/19 10x IPOE 20p for $1593
3/19 4x OPEN 26p for $1357
3/19 1x RIOT 30p for $684
3/19 5x RKT 20p for $486
3/19 10x STIC 12.5p for $633
3/19 10x UWMC 10p for $1443
3/05 10x NOK 4p for $500

Around $24,000 in premiums

1000 CCIV
1000 BFT
1000 IPOE
1000 FRX
2400 FTOC
post 1631313463 02-13-2021, 03:36 PM
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#1467
  1. Schnitzl
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Honestly think this is just the inclination to feel like something is totally novel and unique. None of this is new, and the old schoolers would probably rattle off a story about some almost-identical event that happened in Sumeria 5000 years ago. We can easily draw similarities between current events and what happened after WWI / the 1918 flu pandemic: asset prices blew up with low interest rates and the stonk markets entered a speculative craze. Record numbers of new investors flooded in and that craziness ramped up until the Great Crash in 1929, which wiped out the markets and turned off that new generation of investors.


The more likely reality is that everything is cyclical and this is merely another ring around the rosie
I don't think this is the case. There were 106 million people in 1920 and investing was concentrated towards the US rather than globally like it is now. Furthermore, there are almost 8 billion people with every single person sporting average IQ or more who has access to internet being able to enter the markets. The catalyst for the 30s crash was the government so who knows.
post 1631323413 02-13-2021, 05:46 PM
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#1468
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Just lol if 75%+ of your port isn’t PLTR going into earnings.
post 1631324683 02-13-2021, 06:05 PM
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#1469
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Originally Posted By Arem24⏩
Just lol if 75%+ of your port isn’t PLTR going into earnings.
You going to find out what IV means.


Good luck on your bag holding skills.


Apple had the best earnings ever and got crushed.


This is not wsb.
post 1631325373 02-13-2021, 06:14 PM
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#1470
  1. HMFIC_BROWSIN
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
You going to find out what IV means.


Good luck on your bag holding skills.


Apple had the best earnings ever and got crushed.


This is not wsb.
By this^ sequence, the inevitable horrendous earnings report from palantir should send it to the moon.

Don't forget we 2021 now.
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