Likely not until fed raises rates and especially not until forbearance ends

Which won’t happen until labor market has basically returned to normal , -and consumer spending ramps up.


Those saying this year are fooling themselves. The fed knows they are building a house of cards. At the earliest don’t see a dip until fall next year. In fact this summer and fall expecting some euphoric stock gains

Problem I always see is they've been saying the bubble is going to burst for around fifteen years. It hasn't yet. Governments just keep printing money and nobody is ever going to pay it back.

The fed's low rates funds this bloated govt. They're not going to shoot themselves in the foot and raise rates to previous levels (like above 3%). You'll see a tiny nudge upwards in an attempt at regaining control of this but it'll have such ramifications (market won't like it) that they won't go any further. Powell owns millions in broad market ETFs, he's not going to screw himself.

We've had this in Canada for a few decades already and yes it destroyed the housing markets of places like Vancouver and Toronto but these are vanity holiday homes for rich Chinese people. They only buy in the top markets.

So yes this will make places like New York even more unaffordable but it won't touch the actual good parts of the country where Chinese don't want to go on vacation.

2008.

Hard to say because without knowing what people did with the money. I personally took advantage of the cheaper refi rate to pull equity to buy another property cash. Others may have used the money to improve their property, maybe pay off higher interest debts, Invest in stonks.

Really the only losers would be people that didn't use the cheap money on an asset to get a better return. And due to the stupidity of most americans that number could be huge

that's odd.... because every house I know of that has sold in phoenix this year has been a cash offer by the winning bidder.

OP, when do you think chit will hit the fan?

soon...

My free and clear house is under contract right now for more than twice what I paid for it. I'm in a townhouse I just leased for a year.

I'll buy back in when things settle down.

Asked my investment guy what he thought I should do with the funds from the sale. His answer was hold cash.

Brah, just because "this time is different" doesn't mean a completely different set of events cannot trigger the formation of a bubble.

The bubble before was caused by horrible lending requirements.

This bubble is not being caused by horrible lending requirements, but an out of control Fed and banking system that have caused massive, widespread asset inflation.

OP is spot on.

We're basically living in a country being kept afloat by crony capitalism.

TLDR; It's not lending requirements this time. It's government manipulation that cannot go on forever and will eventually hit a brick wall.

Knock yourself out, but you're paying above asking and without an inspection in most cases.

I don't know enough to fully absorb what OP is discussing but the market is most certainly not friendly to buyers right now. Make sure to do your research before jumping on anything. If it sounds like a deal in the current market, you're probably being taken to the cleaners.

Lol real estate agentcels can’t accept OP’s blackpill

So your house is paid off...no mortgage and you're selling it but now have to rent for the foreseeable future?

Meanwhile, in the next couple of years, home prices could rise another 20% so to rebuy a similar townhome you would have to pay what you sold it for + ~2-%.


There isn't going to be any crash, at best there will be a correction that will plateau home prices and maybe a mild pullback in price .

This.

I think a lot of the cash purchases of homes are investment firms who know that cash is garbage RN, and racing out of cash is the best bet.

I mean, dogecoin is currently worth $40billion....

USD is a bigger joke than DOGE.

Spot on. I ultimately think the end game here is to get us out of this situation through devaluing the dollar. The Fed keeps changing their definition of inflation to sidestep the actual inflation going on.

The public debt is far too high to support, and you're right, it's never being paid back.

The big issue here is, we keep borrowing. We're not even trying to get out of this situation.

You let the debt-to-gdp ratio go too high and it will absolutely never be paid back. Japan has been doing this for decades, and if we're being 100% real tea, will lead to their takeover by China from the inside out.

Same chit is going to happen here if we're not careful. Ded fkn srs.

Personally, I'm avoiding real estate and staying 70/30 stocks/bonds. No way in hell I'm holding the dollar right now, knowing the Fed is hell bent on making it worthless. Make the dollar worthless, make the debt worthless. That's been their plan since 2008.

I can confirm, I am house.

One strategy a friend of mine used was to buy a craphole that needed a gut and she's actually done a ton of the work herself. Got a low price because nobody wanted it and has turned it into a really nice place over the past six months although it's taken a ton of work. As long as the roof is sound and the foundation isn't cracked and you don't have a massive mold issue renovations aren't super tough. She even ridid the bathrooms mostly on her own.

I don't have a time range so much as pointing out that if any of these factors fail, then they collapse on each other. See the following replies:Its not going to be a decade because feedback from actual settling demand will still occur. We have less than a month of inventory in the current market YET, YET for NO reason, the government is single handedly absolving real estate lenders of any responsibility as enabled by the 120bn/month MBS purchases.
I mentioned this in op as a component of how borrowers are actually of much worse quality than represented in stats. These people are not anticipating floating two homes alone, the results of this will vary but banks will raise their interest if they find that they took a consumer mortgage but rented the property out.Agreed but that's ignoring new construction which will always attempt to undercut where possible and reduce demand. It's also SOMEWHAT ignoring the fact that this demand is 100% superficial and not sustainable beyond this year....everyone who was going to move likely did so already or will this year.Powell owns that RIGHT NOW. Investors sell and buy as they wish.
Agreed, at least get yourself out of debt in the very least, but it doesn't mean these gains are here to stay.I'm in the same position, I sold both my houses and bought in 2018, thinking that was the top then covid happened....

I'm not buying anything right now, I'd rather rent for a few years to see how this goes. I doubt the market has much upside to it, everyone can agree with that, so there doesn't seem to be much to lose by waiting.Not sure what you're getting at. A lot of people have cash from refinancing another house. In a cash sale you'd never see this.Two things can drop real estate values: drop in demand relative to supply OR rise in interest rates. Everything just boils down to this.

My best guess is that the current demand is not a NATURAL response of the system but a very, very temporary FORCED response due to panic. As I previously stated, despite the ridiculously high demand, the gov't is STILL lowering interest rates. This is 100% ridiculous and just pissing fuel all over an absolute inferno. I can't take anyone serious who doesn't see this as an absolute overshoot by the fed.

It should be incredibly obvious to most people that cities are not going to completely empty over covid fears at this point. Now we're looking at a potential return into cities as covid panic dies down. They will do this in the face of rising interest rates while they cannot afford to sell their latest home --there is no demand from the original source.

All in all, there will be a correction within two years, likely, then we'll see people default, interest rates rise, industry ETFs pull out...there you go.

its not the same as 2008 where every retard and his mother has an interest only mortgage on an "investment" property. this is multinational corporations buying everything up to rent to the plebes. the great reset.


lol at people thinking theyll inherit their parents houses. tom selleck and his reverse mortgate schemes cucked you.

What you did is the only reason to do it. To pay off higher interest debt or get a better rate of return either in market or buying other property


Tbh doing a home improvement project is generally cashflow negative unless DIY so even that I think is a financial mistake


Using the money to buy a car, other goodies, vacation etc aka American consoomer is shooting your self in the foot. Basically mortgaging a lifestyle

Who was inflation? Money printer goes "burrr" and yet housing is going to become cheap and affordable again how? A weak dollar means more dollars for assets and goods, which is why gas and food is going up weekly. Also, how is something tangible and scarce like land going to plummet and crash and yet things like dodgecoin stay afloat? Then you have to take into account the millions of immigrants that will be looking for housing in the next decade with an open borders policy.

Hyperinflation comin'...


https://lithub.com/wp-content/upload...ed-960x430.jpg

I seen it explained as the rich want the dollar devalued to get out of their debt, they still have to pay back the same amount but they can make it worth less so effectively pay back less

It's already hitting it. The sheeple are too busy or too distracted to care.

Our national debt is now more than $28,000,000,000,000.00.

That completely ignores our unfunded liabilities which the government hides from voters.

That revised total is more than $132,000,000,000,000.00

That mean the average US taxpayer's tax debt obligation is $855,000.00.

LOL. Clownworld indeed! This can never be paid for. We're broker than a $5 hooker with a $50 meth habit.

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/ab..._national_debt

That’s just the cuck in you talking OP, srs

Got any sauce on DTI’s going up?
This lending environment isn’t even close to subprime

Lol

Rates are only going to go to zero.

Who cares let me know a month before it actually happens because there's always some idiot selling a market crash. The only time there's not is right after a market crash.