Who cares let me know a month before it actually happens because there's always some idiot selling a market crash. The only time there's not is right after a market crash.

It won't crash again - the government and big corporations own to much of the housing market to let that happen.

Rates go to zero - principal shoots through the roof.

Same thing is happening in China.

There are entire buildings in China that are literally empty (apartment buildings) and yet the price goes up.

All government created and by design a giant ponzi scheme.

The only thing that can cause this house of cards to crash is depopulation.

As people stop having kids - the society will have to go through a reset.

You don't need 1,000,000,000 houses if you only have 500,000,000 people.

So - not in my or your life time will we see this result.

It can be irrational in the short term but I dont think it can be irrational in the long term

people are in bidding wars here but the population hasnt changed at all

So your house is paid off...no mortgage and you're selling it but now have to rent for the foreseeable future?

Meanwhile, in the next couple of years, home prices could rise another 20% so to rebuy a similar townhome you would have to pay what you sold it for + ~2-%.

There isn't going to be any crash, at best there will be a correction that will plateau home prices and maybe a mild pullback in price .

My plan is to buy back into the market in a year after inventory increases and prices flatten or come down some. I will net $500k from the sale of the house. If I decide to invest that and get 4%, that pays the lease on my townhouse.

If mortgage rates are still around 3% when I buy again, I'll just put down 30% and finance the rest. If mortgage rates are higher, then home prices are going to be lower and I'll buy with cash.

The "you'll be priced out forever if you don't buy now" motto of 2007 didn't turn out so well. I am hearing the same thing now.

Not sure what you're getting at. A lot of people have cash from refinancing another house. In a cash sale you'd never see this.

If you're buying in the next 4-5 years, rates will probably still be around 3%.

I see them attempting to increase the rates, followed by asset prices crashes, followed by lowering of the rates.

The Fed has removed the brakes of the money printing train. This chit has been going on since 2008, and I don't see it stopping now.

That isn't what's happening..... These are investment firms. Professional behemoths who are LOLing @ doomers who think this is the top.

We venezuela now. Assets are king.

get me hard stats on your claim. I know funds are a component of the fold, but it differs from area to area.

Got any sauce on DTI’s going up?
This lending environment isn’t even close to subprime

I dont think there's a bunch of millionaires running around buying $600k homes in the suburbs with cash lmao.

im a simple man

i see still high unemployment and shuttered businesses in this cuck state

and i hear of people getting into bidding wars and offering 10s of thousands above asking price just to get a house


i know these two dont match up and some fukery is going on.


lol people asking me if i am going to buy a house soon. these retards dont understand a correction or crash is eminent

-fed interest rates are as low as possible before just going negative
-banks are borrowing this money
-banks are loaning this money out on mortgages
-federal gov't is buying the mortgage backed securities that result from the loans


banks are merely processing the loans before selling the mortgages back to the gov't at 120bn a month. 120 BILLION a month.

They assume no risk but are taking all of the up front profit. But that's not all...

iTs NoT a BuBbLe

if you hear someone say this, rest assured, they'd lead you into a back alley to steal your kidney if it meant they got a free fifth of jack out of it.

People are refinancing their old homes in large droves to be able to afford a home somewhere else, while falsely stating that they're going to remain in residence in the old home. This can mean a few things, but its a high risk that a significant portion of homeowners in exodus intend on making rent to be able to afford their new higher mortage....which brings me to my next point

No OnE iN fOrEbEaRaNcE iS uNdErWaTeR

great. No one asked if they were, because its evident they will be soon. And what happens when they are? The 5% of homeowners in forebearance will have to make a decision to keep supporting a house that is no longer worth what they paid, which as we saw in 2008, a significant portion panic sell for no good reason.

InVeStOrS aRe StAbLe

the fuk they are. As soon as fed raises interest rates, real estate will not have a favorable return any more. Single family homes owned by large funds are going to get liquidated. We can all see how fast they moved into the industry; they will pull just as fast out.

There are a lot of assumptions being made that all revolve around the same linch pin of "fundamentals" that are some how not tied to reality. Real estate blogs are not talking about how the lending cycle is corrupt much in the same way as the early 2000s, since banks do not have to hold the bag, they will keep producing mortgages to fill the MBSs. That is EXACTLY what caused the early 2000s market crash. To connect this to a causal mechanism, cost of living has increased dramatically, yet banks HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE DTI they lend at. Prime is the new subprime....just fukking lmao

Hold on to your ass holes. lettuce be real tea and acknowledge the fact that our record breaking economy is only due to record unrealized inflation and will break down imminently. If you can't see this, then you're a hopeless romantic.

Professional economist here and OP is a wizard. Best explanation I’ve seen so far, srs.

Pro-tip, watch for Wages and Salaries (it’s an official economic indicator) growth to get surpassed by the 30 year prime. When interest rates get above that level this whole thing goes belly up. Bet PE etc. are watching that same marker.

Until then if the Fed is printing, they’re making money. OP’s point is exactly correct as well about them immediately getting out. You know who can’t get out quickly and get left holding the bag? Families that extended themselves during the run up, have two houses that require a renter to afford both mortgages, or just a family that bought towards the peak and bought too big and will be underwater as FUK on a large mortgage that’s stressful to begin with.

Many thanks to whoever bumped this thread - this didn't age well, did it?