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Thread: Official Spac Thread

post 1637507293 05-01-2021, 07:45 AM
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#3451
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By Harry362⏩
The old spac CCH UTZ stilll crushing it at $30 while **** like Hylion dumped to $10 lol
Playboy is killing it too up to $50.
post 1637509133 05-01-2021, 08:30 AM
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#3452
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By RoyalRyy⏩
I'm holding till we get a DA or something. I don't plan on buying anymore unless it goes back to 2.
Same. Not buying more till <$1. Warrants <1$ are fantastic. I've got 1000 or so IPOF CB around $3.20 I'll add if it tanks to $1.

PTIC 0.73 felt gud
BWACW at $0.78 felt good
CRHC+ at $1.15 felt good initially ayy lmao

Want more CRHC+ at <$1
Want more ETACW at <0.80
Want more FTOCW at $1
Want more IPOF+ at <$1.25ish
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1637515533 05-01-2021, 10:36 AM
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#3453
  1. RoyalRyy
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Same. Not buying more till <$1. Warrants <1$ are fantastic. I've got 1000 or so IPOF CB around $3.20 I'll add if it tanks to $1.

PTIC 0.73 felt gud
BWACW at $0.78 felt good
CRHC+ at $1.15 felt good initially ayy lmao

Want more CRHC+ at <$1
Want more ETACW at <0.80
Want more FTOCW at $1
Want more IPOF+ at <$1.25ish
I'm hoping once this sofi merger is complete Chamath can kickstart things back up again. No clue when that's gonna happen tho because I think it keeps getting postponed. $20 Leaps sound pretty juicy now that IV dropped no?
HTC
post 1637636843 05-03-2021, 05:23 AM
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#3454
  1. mikusk
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MAAC trading halted, DA with Roivant Sciences

https://roivant.com/roivant-sciences...echnology.html
post 1637645683 05-03-2021, 08:15 AM
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#3455
  1. ajctennis
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Yea, looks like a solid deal. The guy leading the spac has tried since 2015 to invest/take Roivant public so he clearly knows them very well. I'm not going to sell at these prices on warrants.
post 1637703173 05-03-2021, 09:33 PM
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#3456
  1. ajctennis
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You probably shouldn't go into IPOF at these prices. If shares are at 10 and a deal has been announced the warrants should trade between 1-2 mathematically. We are not seeing much of the way in share pops at this point for most deals. So if IPOF does not pop on the shares you may be screwed on your warrants. The warrants could easily drop to the 1.5 range. There are very good sponsors with warrants trading in the 70c- 1.2 range that I think are better for risk adjusted returns.

Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
So with a solid deal like MAAC going through we saw a warrant increase of around 40-50%. How do you guys think IPOF would fare as a comparison? I'm debating dropping $5k on IPOF+ at current prices, but the thought of it dipping much lower is pretty scary.
post 1637704433 05-03-2021, 09:55 PM
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#3457
  1. ajctennis
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Volatility does play a part in how a warrant should be priced. IPOF shares are at 10.4 so warrant price actually make some sense at the moment. It's been volatile which increases warrant prices and probably a lot of people bullish on Chamath finding a great deal. If shares drop to 10 those warrants could go to 1.5. I'm saying IPOF is a higher risk play than buying warrants at 1.2 or below from another good sponsor.
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
When you say 1-2, you're speaking in terms of a legitimate valuation? Or something else, because right now they are already trading at $2.3 or so?
post 1637709023 05-03-2021, 11:13 PM
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#3458
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By ajctennis⏩
Volatility does play a part in how a warrant should be priced. IPOF shares are at 10.4 so warrant price actually make some sense at the moment. It's been volatile which increases warrant prices and probably a lot of people bullish on Chamath finding a great deal. If shares drop to 10 those warrants could go to 1.5. I'm saying IPOF is a higher risk play than buying warrants at 1.2 or below from another good sponsor.
I've got low intestinal fortitude. I'm not buying warrants for more than 80 cents/warrant right now. definitely not getting more IPOF currently. Sold my FTOCW this morning for a $!00 gain cuz I'm sick of looking at them ayy lmao.


Also, had a random thought come across my mind this morning that I could match Heaney's IPOF position if I bought 500 contracts. Obviously my timeframe would 10/10 trap me and the calls would probably decay to $0 before anything happens but it would be substantially cheaper going that route. But holding warrants is better IMO. Assuming the deal is good which it will be he can basically do the PMCC and sell calls against his warrants for months/years for steady income.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1637712423 05-04-2021, 12:42 AM
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#3459
  1. Casser1242
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What the heck is going on with PSTH. Is this a play or not. Seems like this SPAC has been around for a long time and hasn't landed anything. Ackman I would expect to merge with something decent but seems a hefty price tag.
post 1637727943 05-04-2021, 07:57 AM
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#3460
  1. Heaney
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  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By Casser1242⏩
What the heck is going on with PSTH. Is this a play or not. Seems like this SPAC has been around for a long time and hasn't landed anything. Ackman I would expect to merge with something decent but seems a hefty price tag.
Its such a big trust size that its options are fairly limited, alot of the targets that it could approach are mature enough to either IPO or DPO. Still think he'll get a good target but I don't think Stripe is happening at all.

I think the short/medium term spac market really hinges on:

PSTH not taking someone like Subway
IPOF not over paying for a no/low rev tech company
GSAH getting BlockFi or something similar (no FUSE)
SRNG deal with Ginko actually making sense financially
post 1637727993 05-04-2021, 07:58 AM
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#3461
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Also, had a random thought come across my mind this morning that I could match Heaney's IPOF position if I bought 500 contracts. Obviously my timeframe would 10/10 trap me and the calls would probably decay to $0 before anything happens but it would be substantially cheaper going that route. But holding warrants is better IMO. Assuming the deal is good which it will be he can basically do the PMCC and sell calls against his warrants for months/years for steady income.
I wouldn't wish my position on anyone lmao
post 1637730263 05-04-2021, 08:25 AM
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#3462
  1. lntense
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
I wouldn't wish my position on anyone lmao
I'll trade you.








Help
post 1637767003 05-04-2021, 03:54 PM
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#3463
  1. Heaney
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IPOF/Equinox Gym rumours? Warrants up 15% AH
post 1637767023 05-04-2021, 03:54 PM
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#3464
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By lntense⏩
I'll trade you.








Help
Lol brah I'm down 110K on my IPOF you really sure?
post 1637767513 05-04-2021, 04:02 PM
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#3465
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
IPOF shot right back down lmao
Makes sense to take a quick 15% gain on a random tweet. I'd be happy with that merger tbh, they own Soul Cycle too
post 1637768163 05-04-2021, 04:10 PM
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#3466
  1. Heaney
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  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
Makes sense to take a quick 15% gain on a random tweet. I'd be happy with that merger tbh, they own Soul Cycle too
Edit. Guess its a Bloomberg terminal post not a random tweet. I'd be fine with Equinox fwiw, mainly because I imagine that the valuation has been decimated by covid.
post 1637771613 05-04-2021, 04:55 PM
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#3467
  1. lntense
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
Lol brah I'm down 110K on my IPOF you really sure?
Ohh


Nah I’m sweet. Made me feel better though. You’re bigger money than I am lol.
post 1637771723 05-04-2021, 04:57 PM
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#3468
  1. Heaney
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Bloomberg post updated to IPOF being in talks with Equinox. Guess im all in Equinox. Chino wanna combine holdings and we can be in ultra deep Equinox/LuLu?
post 1637774213 05-04-2021, 05:33 PM
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#3469
  1. chino3
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
Bloomberg post updated to IPOF being in talks with Equinox. Guess im all in Equinox. Chino wanna combine holdings and we can be in ultra deep Equinox/LuLu?
I hate to say this... but I sold LULU. I'm selling puts to get back in at price lower than what I sold (already lower, but I want a better price lol)... I still think that chit will be back at $400 eoy, but I need liquidity at the moment.


How do you feel about Equinox? They're huge here in socal, but I just don't know how to feel about gyms, especially ridiculously expensive ones...
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1637774653 05-04-2021, 05:41 PM
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#3470
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By chino3⏩
I hate to say this... but I sold LULU. I'm selling puts to get back in at price lower than what I sold (already lower, but I want a better price lol)... I still think that chit will be back at $400 eoy, but I need liquidity at the moment.


How do you feel about Equinox? They're huge here in socal, but I just don't know how to feel about gyms, especially ridiculously expensive ones...
Neutral on Equinox as a gym, bullish on Soul Cycle as competition to Peleton. Rumoured valuation is almost 2019s value cut in half so it should have lots of room to grow once things are back open fully. Overall reddit/plaid were my 2 hopes but I am fine with this one.
post 1637782123 05-04-2021, 07:44 PM
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#3471
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By chino3⏩
I hate to say this... but I sold LULU. I'm selling puts to get back in at price lower than what I sold (already lower, but I want a better price lol)... I still think that chit will be back at $400 eoy, but I need liquidity at the moment.


How do you feel about Equinox? They're huge here in socal, but I just don't know how to feel about gyms,especially ridiculously expensive ones...
I mean are rich people really hurting for $$$ right now? I'll wait to see the valuation, but it seems they could be a solid company. My calls/warrants hope so anyway
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1637783483 05-04-2021, 08:05 PM
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#3472
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I mean are rich people really hurting for $$$ right now? I'll wait to see the valuation, but it seems they could be a solid company. My calls/warrants hope so anyway
I'm cautiously optimistic medium/long term. Reading online there is alot of butthurt retail that has zero grasp on Equinox's actual business model or how it compares revenue/market cap wise to Planet Fitness/Peleton. I'd anticipate this being a popular reopening stock for institutions. Anything less than 7.5B seems like a solid deal with the best possible outcome being the 5.5B reported by Reuters .

650M revs 2020 with everything closed
1.4B revs 2018 and 2019 with no soul cycle bike for sale.
post 1637783723 05-04-2021, 08:09 PM
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#3473
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
I'm cautiously optimistic medium/long term. Reading online there is alot of butthurt retail that has zero grasp on Equinox's actual business model or how it compares revenue/market cap wise to Planet Fitness/Peleton. I'd anticipate this being a popular reopening stock for institutions. Anything less than 7.5B seems like a solid deal with the best possible outcome being the 5.5B reported by Reuters .

650M revs 2020 with everything closed
1.4B revs 2018 and 2019 with no soul cycle bike for sale.
If Ruters is right I'd cooooom so hard
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1637784153 05-04-2021, 08:16 PM
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#3474
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
If Ruters is right I'd cooooom so hard
I think this is a play I'm gonna have to hold for a while to make money on but I think this is a play I can make money on. If anyone cares I did a little comparison just for the halibut

Planet Fitness 2019 revenue: 689M
Planet Fitness 2020 revenue: 400M
Planet Fitness Market Cap: 7B

Equinox 2019 revenue: 1.4B
Equinox 2020 revenue: 650M
Equinox Market Cap: ?

Peleton 2019 revenue: 915M
Peleton 2020 revenue: 1.8B
Peleton Market Cap: 28B
post 1637784623 05-04-2021, 08:24 PM
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#3475
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
^^I had no idea Equinox had that much revenue. Their membership cost is pretty nuts so I figured most people would steer away, but then again maybe the added membership fees more than make up for the fewer customers
Someone broke down the numbers on reddit and 1yr equinox membership added the same revenue as a 25yr planet fitness membership lol.
post 1637785163 05-04-2021, 08:31 PM
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#3476
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
lmfao damnnn. I had considered getting a pass to equinox a while back in Chicago but I couldn't even figure out what they were, they had no pictures of weights or anything so I thought why the heck would I pay that much for what seemed like crossfit workouts. are they an actual weightlifting gym?
Weights and group fitness classes I think, plus spa services.
post 1637785263 05-04-2021, 08:33 PM
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#3477
  1. ajctennis
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I'm curious to see if equinox is confirmed even at a good valuation if warrants will move up from here. Didn't seem to do much so far upon rumor.
post 1637785363 05-04-2021, 08:34 PM
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#3478
  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By ajctennis⏩
I'm curious to see if equinox is confirmed even at a good valuation if warrants will move up from here. Didn't seem to do much so far upon rumor.
Won't be a pop play either way, reopening play is going to be a slow grinder. Gonna have to hold this bitch into 2022 I feel.
post 1637793873 05-04-2021, 10:58 PM
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#3479
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Originally Posted By Heaney⏩
Won't be a pop play either way, reopening play is going to be a slow grinder. Gonna have to hold this bitch into 2022 I feel.
I think you at least get back to break even pretty quick. Probably a grind to get back to $6+ sadly. LOL remember when it was like $6.50 pre-DA?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1637794733 05-04-2021, 11:16 PM
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#3480
  1. Heaney
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  1. Heaney
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
I think you at least get back to break even pretty quick. Probably a grind to get back to $6+ sadly. LOL remember when it was like $6.50 pre-DA?
Yeah it was over 6.90 one day lol. I was so sure news was coming. Alas here we are in the 2s. Ah well.
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