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Forum » House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.
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Thread: House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.

post 1642414933 07-08-2021, 11:08 AM
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#61
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Originally Posted By chino3⏩
You're 35 and still borderline retarded. There is literally no reason to look to 2008 as a reference point for anything happening today.

I've asked this to every rentcel that is copemaxxing but they never have a fukking answer, but I will try again. What would be the catalyst for a 50% crash?


lol wut? sauce


this lol
This is worse than 08. There's no room to improve, No tech boom to get us out, the economy is based on BLM and social justice bullsh*t, higher taxes, reparations, higher costs, you name it. This is so much worse, and let's be honest the economy never really recovered fully from 08, they just tinkered with it, This is the big bang that many doomsayers have been talking about.
post 1642414953 07-08-2021, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Everybody who bought a house in 2021 did not have a house before - they are all first time home buyers.
wut
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post 1642414993 07-08-2021, 11:09 AM
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Fine by me, selling next month and living rent free for a few years (company travel). As long as the dip can hold off for a few months I'm good.
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post 1642415043 07-08-2021, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted By illriginalized⏩
I can’t pretend to claim a specific percentage (50%) but this is a part of the problem:



Socially - narrative economics - we socially engineer the market.
lol notsheriffsrs

so far:

coincels and meme stonk chasers are driving housing prices up (lol k)

Supply STILL can't meet demand (so at worst when supply can meet demand, we will plateau, not crash)

schiller expects prices to go up for at least another year (so let's say we go up another 10-20% over the next year, and then for some reason we see a correction of 10-20%... Don't need a calculator for that one)

social narrative and irrational exuberance leading to housing increases? no. WFH opened up parts of the country that many many many people wouldn't have even entertained the idea of because it would've been a pay cut but WFH alleviates that, so now we see nationwide increases not just single market increases. Throw in inflation (is it transitory or not? Can't have it both ways), continued issues with supply and demand (this is a finite commodity with an ever increasing demand), you have a recipe for continued growth, but not a single catalyst for a collapse.

3 minutes in and I can't continue. Sorry brah, I tried.
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post 1642415173 07-08-2021, 11:12 AM
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OP needs to learn what nominal rigidity is.
post 1642415303 07-08-2021, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
LOL in 08 you needed a deposit, Now you don't need one. No deposit means poor people who can't afford homes can get expensive mortgages.
You obviously don't live in the US. People are buying these houses cash. You can't get a house here with less than 20k deposit.
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post 1642415503 07-08-2021, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted By illriginalized⏩
I’m in the same boat. I only came to California to make this stupid Cali money til I hit a certain milestone, then heading back to Michigan to buy a real home not a rat nest like these chitty Cali homes.
From cali, yes house market here is crazy lol. Just gotta make more money or move to a diff state.
post 1642415553 07-08-2021, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
OP needs to learn what nominal rigidity is.
Nothing in any Macroeconomic theory takes into account the new US strategy of taxing the f**k out of everyone through inflation to fund "social projects" This hasn't been modelled yet.
post 1642415893 07-08-2021, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted By RonaldMcflurry⏩
You obviously don't live in the US. People are buying these houses cash. You can't get a house here with less than 20k deposit.
3% downpayment is the choice loan deposit according to my terminal. Do you even know what a Bloomberg terminal is little boy? Defaults are also up and REITS are less liquid.

I'm not so worried about Texas and Florida, I'm worried about Idaho, Alabama, Carolinas, where there isn't a undersupply yet, prices are overinflated due to low deposit amounts. These people are also likely to defaults.
post 1642416103 07-08-2021, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted By demfeelsbro⏩
so i'll get 30-50% less for my current house, but then the next house I buy will also be 30-50% cheaper?!? It's all relative baby
Unless you have no equity above that 30-50...%.

No one is going to give you a $500k loan for a $300k house.
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post 1642416343 07-08-2021, 11:29 AM
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The supply about to open up because of foreclosures is nowhere enough to quench the demand, plus, probably 80% of people under 25 don't even have the cash on deck for a deposit.

Prices will keep going up.

You won't own anything and you'll love it.

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post 1642416413 07-08-2021, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
This is worse than 08. There's no room to improve, No tech boom to get us out, the economy is based on BLM and social justice bullsh*t, higher taxes, reparations, higher costs, you name it. This is so much worse, and let's be honest the economy never really recovered fully from 08, they just tinkered with it, This is the big bang that many doomsayers have been talking about.
The economy never recovered from 1999. Stocks have been flat for 20 years once you factor in inflation.

I will keep posting this graph until the sun explodes. The S&P 500 doesn't actually grow 7% every year, the govt borrows debt from you and inflates it 7% every year. The post 2000 American economy is a giant Fed-engineered shell game.



https://www.isabelnet.com/valuation-...-money-supply/

That's one of the silver linings about this Rona chit.... it took what used to be a slow frog boil and made it easily visible. You know how inflation is burning at double digits, government debt is exploding, and house prices everywhere are jacked to the tits? That's just like 5 years of normal QE spending packed into one. If we had spread it out from 2020-2025 like we did from 2015-2020, we'd probably end up at the same result, but bluepillers could try to explain it away by saying "tHe eCoNoMy iS gRoWiNg!" or blame Republican policies or some chit. Nah, it's just the Fed monetizing a chitload of debt and handing out free loans to the 1%.
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post 1642416543 07-08-2021, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted By topperstyle⏩
You tend to capitalize some words that wouldn’t autocorrect to capitalized normally.

lol it looks like you are just copy pasting words into your posts lmfaoo
He is 15 years old.
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post 1642416613 07-08-2021, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted By chino3⏩
lol notsheriffsrs

so far:

coincels and meme stonk chasers are driving housing prices up (lol k)

Supply STILL can't meet demand (so at worst when supply can meet demand, we will plateau, not crash)

schiller expects prices to go up for at least another year (so let's say we go up another 10-20% over the next year, and then for some reason we see a correction of 10-20%... Don't need a calculator for that one)

social narrative and irrational exuberance leading to housing increases? no. WFH opened up parts of the country that many many many people wouldn't have even entertained the idea of because it would've been a pay cut but WFH alleviates that, so now we see nationwide increases not just single market increases. Throw in inflation (is it transitory or not? Can't have it both ways), continued issues with supply and demand (this is a finite commodity with an ever increasing demand), you have a recipe for continued growth, but not a single catalyst for a collapse.

3 minutes in and I can't continue. Sorry brah, I tried.
Fair enough.
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post 1642416703 07-08-2021, 11:33 AM
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I'd be surprised if anything big happens within a year.

I think most of the people calling for imminent collapse are underestimating how crazy it was 2006-2008. Things were so bad across the board in the leadup to September 08 it was obvious.

At one point there was over 12 Months supply housing. You could roll a tire down the street and bounce off 3 foreclosures and 2 short sales. You could gape sellers butts if you wanted and get 20% off asking price. Entire new construction developments were vacant, unfinished, and overgrown with weeds. It was wild.
post 1642417383 07-08-2021, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted By turdburglar9021⏩
I'd be surprised if anything big happens within a year.

I think most of the people calling for imminent collapse are underestimating how crazy it was 2006-2008. Things were so bad across the board in the leadup to September 08 it was obvious.

At one point there was over 12 Months supply housing. You could roll a tire down the street and bounce off 3 foreclosures and 2 short sales. You could gape sellers butts if you wanted and get 20% off asking price. Entire new construction developments were vacant, unfinished, and overgrown with weeds. It was wild.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how many foreclosures/evictions there are going to be next month and beyond when the moratoriums are lifted...
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post 1642417573 07-08-2021, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted By turdburglar9021⏩
I'd be surprised if anything big happens within a year.

I think most of the people calling for imminent collapse are underestimating how crazy it was 2006-2008. Things were so bad across the board in the leadup to September 08 it was obvious.

At one point there was over 12 Months supply housing. You could roll a tire down the street and bounce off 3 foreclosures and 2 short sales. You could gape sellers butts if you wanted and get 20% off asking price. Entire new construction developments were vacant, unfinished, and overgrown with weeds. It was wild.
This right here. Hell I remember half built subdivisions and new owners going WTF at being surrounded by empty lots.

Unless there is a recession that hits well-off workers (who are currently WFH or still employed) then not much is going to change.

Sounds like homes might be coming on the market from first time young buyers who now have regrets buying in the first place (FOMO effect..?) but these homes will get swallowed up really quickly. Lending standards are much higher today then in 2008….lol back then an undocumented landscaper with declared income could get a $500k+ loan.
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post 1642417953 07-08-2021, 11:49 AM
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People putting 3% down can’t afford their house any more than in 08, just a different way to kick that can.

The wildcard to me is the coasts being sold to China, that didn’t seem to be as big of a factor in 08, PE firms like blackrock were buying homes in 05-06 as well, but not as much as they are now that their puppet xiden is in office. I still see a correction back to 2015/2016 prices, not half necessarily.

It’ll take a single “cyberattack” black swan event in the financial sector to fuk it all up, and why would blackrock care? They’re using taxpayer money to buy homes and increase their stash, and if/when things dip or tank, they’ll get a xiden/taxpayer funded bailout and keep their properties to anyway to ride back up; so they’re playing with house money and can’t lose.
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post 1642418113 07-08-2021, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
I think a lot of people are underestimating how many foreclosures/evictions there are going to be next month and beyond when the moratoriums are lifted...
Unless a recession hits a broad group of well earning workers (those WFH or still going in), foreclosures will probably get gobbled up by buyers looking to take advantage of homeowners who could get back into a well paying job or were counting on unemployment.

Renters on the other hand are screwed. Backlog of unpaid rent and rent increases will suck.
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post 1642418853 07-08-2021, 11:59 AM
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As long as big daddy Fed is blasting liquidity into the market and keeping rates low, the party will likely not end.

They plan to keep doing just that.

Sorry brah, you're right about inflation, but the housing thing is going to continue for quite some time.
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post 1642418903 07-08-2021, 11:59 AM
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Dumbass here. So buy a home now or in 6 months ?
post 1642418973 07-08-2021, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
I work at an investment bank. Your a pleb mortgage broker just face it.

We're all laughing at work. This is worse than 08.

Hope your not over-leveraged. I was in Houston last year 4 uber drivers in a row were studying their "real estate licence" The drop is on. I'm prepared to call it.
Yea the fallout of this house of cards is going to be epic
post 1642419053 07-08-2021, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
I think a lot of people are underestimating how many foreclosures/evictions there are going to be next month and beyond when the moratoriums are lifted...
and a lot more people are underestimating how many people have stashed money away, and how many people are waiting for not even a bargain on a buy opportunity but just a straight up opportunity...
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1642419113 07-08-2021, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
I work in Risk Governance consultancy side, BMO, CS, CBA, MUFG, JPM, Couple of alternatives consultancies as well, Plus I consult for a couple of LSE AIM Mining companies.

The moral of the story is I'm not a pleb.
This is not investment banking.
post 1642419173 07-08-2021, 12:03 PM
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I have my doubts about that theory. The Federal reserve is working with companies to purchase homes, which in turn keeps home prices high. The Feds print the money and Black Rock and other Wall Street firms use the money to buy homes. A little on that can be read here ~

"What Happens When Hedge Funds Buy Up Neighborhoods
A real estate firm estimates 'that in many of the nation’s top markets, roughly one in every five houses sold is bought by someone who never moves in.'"


https://thefederalist.com/2021/06/11...neighborhoods/
post 1642419223 07-08-2021, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted By chino3⏩
and a lot more people are underestimating how many people have stashed money away, and how many people are waiting for not even a bargain on a buy opportunity but just a straight up opportunity...
Why would you be waiting to pay overinflated prices when you could just build cheaper?
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post 1642419293 07-08-2021, 12:05 PM
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i hope so. my younger brother needs to buy a house

he sold like a year ago or something and moved in with his mother in law

fuark, he must be kicking himself
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post 1642419483 07-08-2021, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted By RonaldMcflurry⏩
You obviously don't live in the US. People are buying these houses cash. You can't get a house here with less than 20k deposit.
No they’re not lmao. Average household income in the US is like 59,000 a year. 90 percent of people live paycheck to paycheck (regardless of salary). They aren’t paying 400,000 cash for a house. Borrowed money, borrowed time. It’s going to tank. The only question is how long it’s going to take
post 1642419773 07-08-2021, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
I think a lot of people are underestimating how many foreclosures/evictions there are going to be next month and beyond when the moratoriums are lifted...
Cali has a ban on evictions through September 30th and will also cover all back rent (4/20-9/21) for all qualified renters. At that point these renters won't be delinquent and the eviction process will have to wait. I think the amount of foreclosures/evictions will be much smaller than you think.
post 1642420133 07-08-2021, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted By FastBack6⏩
No they’re not lmao. Average household income in the US is like 59,000 a year. People aren’t paying 400,000 cash for a house. Borrowed money, borrowed time. It’s going to tank. The only question is how long it’s going to take
He isn’t exactly wrong but it’s probably more of a local phenomenon. I am in northern Cali and Bay Area Tech workers are coming in and just buying homes much higher than asking. I don’t have any hard source but it sounds like these guys are just cashing out stocks to pay for it. Given that CA state has collected way more in income taxes, which is heavily driven by sales of stocks, it kind of adds up.

You are looking at the average household income against current home prices…brah the folks buying homes right now have far above average income. Like a I said earlier, unless z as recession hits these group of workers - I don’t expect much to change.
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