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Forum » House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.
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Thread: House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.

post 1642420513 07-08-2021, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
Why would you be waiting to pay overinflated prices when you could just build cheaper?
Why would you be waiting to build an entire house when you could just pay overinflated prices?
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post 1642420693 07-08-2021, 12:20 PM
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50% lmao. The market will soften at some point especially with stagnant population growth according to the census but lmao if you even think a 25% correction. Prices will remain flat for the next couple years.
post 1642420783 07-08-2021, 12:21 PM
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OP you been living under a rock or did you sleep through economics 101?
post 1642420803 07-08-2021, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
Why would you be waiting to pay overinflated prices when you could just build cheaper?
Originally Posted By BulkingIsHard⏩
Why would you be waiting to build an entire house when you could just pay overinflated prices?
Why would you not wait until the eviction/foreclosure moratorium order expires, people get foreclosed on, and pick up houses for pennies on the dollar for later in the year?
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post 1642420893 07-08-2021, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted By chaunce54⏩
Why would you be waiting to pay overinflated prices when you could just build cheaper?
because you can't
Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
Why would you not wait until the eviction/foreclosure moratorium order expires, people get foreclosed on, and pick up houses for pennies on the dollar for later in the year?
because you won't be able to
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post 1642420943 07-08-2021, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted By SaltyDog920⏩
50% lmao. The market will soften at some point especially with stagnant population growth according to the census but lmao if you even think a 25% correction. Prices will remain flat for the next couple years.
2008 started in 2005 I believe.......so if it started last year, itll be a few more before you see massive lay offs and housing prices plummet.

Also, if houses get foreclosed on, banks want quick returns not to sit on those assets......you think they don't lose money sometimes when they have foreclosures?
post 1642421293 07-08-2021, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted By scooterbrah⏩
depends on where imo. we still have commie-19 californiavirus hot and heavy here driving prices through the roof. not that zillow should ever be believed but according to them, my house is going up $1500/day. huge if true but just not realistic by any stretch of the imagination

i could maybe see a small correction here but not like it will be in other areas who will get crushed
i agree. high population areas with high cost of living will keep going up. places like hawaii have median sale prices of over 900k; low interest rates and limited inventory is going to keep driving the prices higher.
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post 1642422123 07-08-2021, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted By FastBack6⏩
No they’re not lmao. Average household income in the US is like 59,000 a year. 90 percent of people live paycheck to paycheck (regardless of salary). They aren’t paying 400,000 cash for a house. Borrowed money, borrowed time. It’s going to tank. The only question is how long it’s going to take
Corporations/Big flippers are absolutely cashing out on houses. They buy 20-100 at a time. It is nearly impossible to find fixer uppers these days. Also, people are selling their houses and buying new houses cash. 90 percent of people aren't buying houses. Dumbass.
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post 1642422223 07-08-2021, 12:39 PM
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in on daily rentcel cope thread
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post 1642422363 07-08-2021, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted By JPF82⏩
2008 started in 2005 I believe.......so if it started last year, itll be a few more before you see massive lay offs and housing prices plummet.

Also, if houses get foreclosed on, banks want quick returns not to sit on those assets......you think they don't lose money sometimes when they have foreclosures?
This. The ship be sinking, but they are going to keep it afloat for as long as possible. Sorry to all rentcels holding out hope to scoop up a good deal by the end of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep the boat afloat for 10 years. Whenever it does sink, it is going to suck tho...
mo e
post 1642422613 07-08-2021, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted By tryn2change⏩
Unless a recession hits a broad group of well earning workers (those WFH or still going in), foreclosures will probably get gobbled up by buyers looking to take advantage of homeowners who could get back into a well paying job or were counting on unemployment.

Renters on the other hand are screwed. Backlog of unpaid rent and rent increases will suck.
This. Sold our CA house and moved to FL.

Our mortgage was 1200 (bought 2015) and our rent here is 1900, for a house that sold for 60% of what ours is, but in 2017 (also 400 sqft smaller).

We're buying now and we'll save at least $400/month, likely more. Rent is just as out of control.
post 1642423793 07-08-2021, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted By lockdev⏩
As long as big daddy Fed is blasting liquidity into the market and keeping rates low, the party will likely not end.

They plan to keep doing just that.

Sorry brah, you're right about inflation, but the housing thing is going to continue for quite some time.
One would assume for this to be the case, people will have to be upgrading and moving to a new house once ever few years, no?
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post 1642425213 07-08-2021, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted By RonaldMcflurry⏩
Corporations/Big flippers are absolutely cashing out on houses. They buy 20-100 at a time. It is nearly impossible to find fixer uppers these days. Also, people are selling their houses and buying new houses cash. 90 percent of people aren't buying houses. Dumbass.
I wanted to add this.

Even if potato opies silly prediction happened , the banks/ reality companies are just gonna swoop in and buy all the houses back for next to nothing.

When heavy recessions happen like that , people get laid off and lose their job. They’re not gonna be the ones buying houses again. The people on the sidelines with cash are ****ed too unless they can buy the house outright from the bank.

I hope you got 500k in cash ready to go.
post 1642425423 07-08-2021, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
I work in Investment Banking. It's worse now than in 2008, in 2008 they just gave out low-interest loans, Now they give out loans for just having a 3% deposit. This is worse than 08, The risk instrument has just been flipped over.
you dont work in IB, because they dont hire dipshts like you. IB these days are from target schools with extreme talent.

There are no other market fundamentals that would suggest a mass foreclosure event, nor do multifamily properties have any excess vacancies to even allow for a migration from homeowner to rental.

So OP STFU and Fk off. Negged.
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post 1642425893 07-08-2021, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted By BeanGainClovis⏩
It has always been a 2 class system, for hundreds of years in every country in the world.

There are those who work and those who own.

Markets do work in cycles though, that is the fundamental idea of the business cycle.

Recessions are a part of the cycle.
While that’s true .....

there where always different levels of the working class and every era/generation before this one (mine) middle class people could afford and where able to buy houses/condos/real estate

Now that’s not the case anymore. You can make 50-60/$hr where I live and you will still not be able to save much for a down payment and afford most condos comfortably atm , houses ?

****ing forget it unless 250k pre tax

Maybe my point wasn’t explained well enough

Only the rich and elite will be able to own ANY amount of property in the near future

What used to set the lower and lower middle class apart from the middle and upper middle was real estate.

That’s gone now , no one who works for a living will ever have any sizeable assets like real estate ever again if they don’t own by now.

It’s the merging of all the levels of the working class and destruction of the middle and upper middle class.

Everyone’s a slave now who owns nothing and that’s just how they fed wants it.
post 1642427013 07-08-2021, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted By FastBack6⏩
No they’re not lmao. Average household income in the US is like 59,000 a year. 90 percent of people live paycheck to paycheck (regardless of salary). They aren’t paying 400,000 cash for a house. Borrowed money, borrowed time. It’s going to tank. The only question is how long it’s going to take
https://eyeonhousing.org/2021/02/inc...and%20December.

"According to estimates from the National Association of Realtors, 19% of existing home transactions were all-cash sales in December 2020, down from 20% in both November 2020"

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/econom...Index%20Survey.

Amidst the most competitive spring market in 50 years, the share of all-cash sales to existing-home sales surged to 25% in April 2021 as non-first time buyers are paying all cash to increase the competitiveness of their offers, edging out first-time buyers, according to the April 2021 Realtors® Confidence Index Survey.

That's a lot of fookin people paying cash tbh. And to see it grow from 20% in 2020 to 25% so far in 2021 is pretty incredible.
"It won't get better, just different."
post 1642429993 07-08-2021, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
lol wut? things are not really that out of reach, you're exaggerating. if you go into prime real estate in places where people are flocking to after the pandemic, yes, your rhetoric may apply, but there are plenty of places that still have reasonably priced homes/condos. I can buy a 1-2 bedroom in Chicago pretty easily for example, and that's a major city. their prices haven't changed much at all during the pandemic.
Because everyone that can is fleeing this hellhole, and property taxes are some of the highest in the country. Chicago has almost nothing going for it.
post 1642431023 07-08-2021, 02:27 PM
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If my house dropped 50% I would still have good equity
post 1642431353 07-08-2021, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
because in 04-07 (which caused the 08 crash) you could get a 100% loan with stated income(no income docs) and a credit score of 620, with 1 open trade line

Nothing like that exists today
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
post 1642431453 07-08-2021, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
That’s incredibly bad… how is that even possible?
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post 1642431683 07-08-2021, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted By illriginalized⏩
That’s incredibly bad… how is that even possible?
its that easy.. you only need like 2% to get things started.
post 1642431763 07-08-2021, 02:37 PM
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JFC, no wonder everyone is moving to TX from CA. House prices are like 1/4 the cost.
Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
Bruh, a loan on $1.5 million is like $10k/month.
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post 1642431913 07-08-2021, 02:38 PM
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lol @ rentcels srs
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post 1642432453 07-08-2021, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
If you are renting out the rooms and have proof they will include that as part of your income.
post 1642433003 07-08-2021, 02:53 PM
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The only way housing prices will drop is if interest rates rise, but even then the prices will only drop to cover the difference in mortgage payments.

Inflation is coming and will cause RE prices to rise because the dollar is worthless. Can't even buy a bottled water for $1, fry cooks at McD's starting at $15/hr everywhere. Gonna be interesting to watch the fed try to fight off inflation after printing an unimaginable amount of cash while interest rates are already rock bottom. I just closed on a house at 2.75%, who the fuk would loan money at 2.75% for 30 years? You're not making anything. Meanwhile housing and everything else costs so much in real dollars that even a small interest rate increase would send crazy shockwaves through markets. Good luck.
post 1642433423 07-08-2021, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
100% bull chit unless they put down 80%
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post 1642433543 07-08-2021, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
its that easy.. you only need like 2% to get things started.
lol I’m good man, I’m going with a minimum of 20%

In addition there’s supposedly a hack to avoid interest by making like 1.5x the monthly payment. I have to study and see if it’s legit.
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post 1642433643 07-08-2021, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted By pondus_levo⏩
JFC, no wonder everyone is moving to TX from CA. House prices are like 1/4 the cost.



Bruh, a loan on $1.5 million is like $10k/month.
The only negative is property taxes are higher in Texas but that’s nothing… get a whole lot of house vs Cali tiny homes - dollar for dollar.
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post 1642433783 07-08-2021, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted By rgnx⏩
I know 2 guys who make like $3k/month each.

They both just bought a 1.5 million dollar house with a huge loan. (renting out some rooms)

Let's just say, they giving out huge loans to almost anyone like candy.
Sure bud. I definitely believe that 2 randoms you know with $6,000 income were able to get a jumbo loan, which by the way come with pretty strict standards. Now, if they were able to get the mortgage amount to below $548,000 (the threshold for jumbo loans) with a massive downpayment then I'd believe you as the bank would be in a win/win there.

Neat story though.
post 1642433833 07-08-2021, 03:06 PM
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If prices drop rates will go up. Same payment. Then rent will go up. Then you’re paying 16k-35k annually for nothing. If not even more. We want home prices to slow to flat, not up or down. This way wages can catch up without increasing rates.
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