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Forum » House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.
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Thread: House Prices to Drop 30-50% next year.

post 1642438143 07-08-2021, 04:17 PM
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I hope they do drop by that much I’ll buy twice as much property with my cash on hand

But I know it won’t happen

Way too many people sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip
post 1642438183 07-08-2021, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted By Azzurri⏩
LMAO, there is no FUKing way a bank is giving out JUMBO loans for homes that are 1.5m.

My sister bought a 1.5m house and the amount of info and proof of income needed was crazy and she owns a business that does 15 Million and year with 30-40% profit margins so she has the money and they still made it extremely hard be able to get the loan. My sister also has over 800+ credit.

Doesn't surprise me that Miscers know guys or have a jumbo loan them self with a 65k income and 3% down, LMAO get the fuk outta here.
your sister bought two years ago...
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post 1642438333 07-08-2021, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
I hope they do drop by that much I’ll buy twice as much property with my cash on hand

But I know it won’t happen

Way too many people sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip
you just described the mechanism for a dead cat bounce
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post 1642438373 07-08-2021, 04:21 PM
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Something is just not adding up for me. We had a pandemic, the economy slowed down, high rate of unemployment, yet across the board all over the country there is drastically more demand than there is supply for houses?

What about after these people get their house eventually? All those same people probably won't be buying a new house the next year. Where will the next wave of demand come from to keep the price up? Then you have Federal Unemployment benefits that will end eventually which means less consumer money out there for anyone. Everyone is saying this generation is being priced out, but surely that can only be temporary? How can you price out whole generations from a house? For a house to be worth an amount there has to be a buyer on the other end, if you have no buyers than the house doesn't have that high value.

Obviously markets can remain irrational for extended periods of time before a crash happens, but i just don't see how these prices can last indefinitely since wages aren't going up by that much and more unemployed/poor than ever before, so the well of buyers has to dry up at some point I'd imagine.
post 1642438503 07-08-2021, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
your sister bought two years ago...
My sister bought less than a year ago, but nice try.
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post 1642438513 07-08-2021, 04:23 PM
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rentcels gonna rent. if the market did crash imagine paying 1000 a month mortgage on an upside down nice home you own that will likely go back up or paying 1000 rent for an apartment.
post 1642438543 07-08-2021, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
you just described the mechanism for a dead cat bounce
Yeah except over here transaction costs are such that people can’t buy and sell houses like they do with shares

I’ve seen all the doomsaying for 20 years now. Bought my first property following the Asian financial crisis (1999)

Property development is a 3-year time horizon, short term movements don’t interest me
post 1642438613 07-08-2021, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted By Contribution05⏩
Something is just not adding up for me. We had a pandemic, the economy slowed down, high rate of unemployment, yet across the board all over the country there is drastically more demand than there is supply for houses?

What about after these people get their house eventually? All those same people probably won't be buying a new house the next year. Where will the next wave of demand come from to keep the price up? Then you have Federal Unemployment benefits that will end eventually which means less consumer money out there for anyone. Everyone is saying this generation is being priced out, but surely that can only be temporary? How can you price out whole generations from a house? For a house to be worth an amount there has to be a buyer on the other end, if you have no buyers than the house doesn't have that high value.

Obviously markets can remain irrational for extended periods of time before a crash happens, but i just don't see how these prices can last indefinitely since wages aren't going up by that much and more unemployed/poor than ever before, so the well of buyers has to dry up at some point I'd imagine.
I for one welcome our new ccp overlords because I want to watch the world burn and darkness to inherit the earth.
post 1642438663 07-08-2021, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted By fishnbrah⏩
rentcels gonna rent. if the market did crash imagine paying 1000 a month mortgage on an upside down nice home you own that will likely go back up or paying 1000 rent for an apartment.
I don’t even think you’ll find an apartment for only 1k. Maybe in Jackson, Miss.
I probably banged your mom.

Eat the whole animal like a real man.
post 1642438873 07-08-2021, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted By OT2000⏩
I don’t even think you’ll find an apartment for only 1k. Maybe in Jackson, Miss.
right. my mom has a fourplex, shes not charging near enough
post 1642438913 07-08-2021, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted By OT2000⏩
I don’t even think you’ll find an apartment for only 1k. Maybe in Jackson, Miss.
I mean you can find an apartment for 1k in about any city, but depending the city you you'll be living in the ghetto.
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post 1642439133 07-08-2021, 04:32 PM
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clown claims he works at an ibank makes no mention how the volker rule essentially makes a repeat of 08 impossible. must be a kangaroo bank in victoria, that place is a reel chithole

The Volcker Rule is a federal regulation that generally prohibits banks from conducting certain investment activities with their own accounts and limits their dealings with hedge funds and private equity funds, also called covered funds.
post 1642439283 07-08-2021, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted By Contribution05⏩
Something is just not adding up for me. We had a pandemic, the economy slowed down, high rate of unemployment, yet across the board all over the country there is drastically more demand than there is supply for houses?

What about after these people get their house eventually? All those same people probably won't be buying a new house the next year. Where will the next wave of demand come from to keep the price up? Then you have Federal Unemployment benefits that will end eventually which means less consumer money out there for anyone. Everyone is saying this generation is being priced out, but surely that can only be temporary? How can you price out whole generations from a house? For a house to be worth an amount there has to be a buyer on the other end, if you have no buyers than the house doesn't have that high value.

Obviously markets can remain irrational for extended periods of time before a crash happens, but i just don't see how these prices can last indefinitely since wages aren't going up by that much and more unemployed/poor than ever before, so the well of buyers has to dry up at some point I'd imagine.
pent up demand from millennialz not being able to afford homes, eventually we'll have blackrock/ invesco /invitation be the main housing providers as these koonts chase yield they will displace the peasantry from the property ladder.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...o-many-houses/
post 1642439493 07-08-2021, 04:40 PM
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LOL. People have lots of wealth?? Nah - people have lots of stupidity watching countless reruns of "Flip This House" dreaming of becoming an overnight millionaire. I wish I could show the ads of companies offering mortgages with no credit check. 2021.

I cannot for the life of me understand a person taking on massive debt for something as critical as the roof over your head to live these TV lifestyles, eating roman noodles so they can tell/show everyone about the "magnificent" home they just bought. It's just senseless.

I took full advantage of hysteria and stupidity of 2009 and bought (and paid off) a 3bedroom home. I've traveled all over the world and sip on wine laughing at the stupidity of the masses.
post 1642440113 07-08-2021, 04:49 PM
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Anyone notice that economists and " housing experts" predictions are wrong 90% of the time?
post 1642440123 07-08-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
This.

Same here, but I don't think it'll happen.
No dip? Why? Dips always happen throughout history.
post 1642440173 07-08-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted By ElArteSuave⏩
clown claims he works at an ibank makes no mention how the volker rule essentially makes a repeat of 08 impossible. must be a kangaroo bank in victoria, that place is a reel chithole

The Volcker Rule is a federal regulation that generally prohibits banks from conducting certain investment activities with their own accounts and limits their dealings with hedge funds and private equity funds, also called covered funds.
"On June 25, 2020, FDIC officials said the agency will loosen the restrictions of the Volcker Rule, allowing banks to more easily make large investments into venture capital and similar funds."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volcker-rule.asp
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post 1642440333 07-08-2021, 04:51 PM
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only people it effects is the people who panic sell now buying into the FUD, and people without enough liquid capital to buy the dip if it comes, like so many people do during stock market dips

the housing market is one of the most secure long term investments one can make simply because its a bet on population growth and demand for homes in prime RE areas, but that much is common sense
post 1642440343 07-08-2021, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted By FrankGrimesJr⏩
Anyone notice that economists and " housing experts" predictions are wrong 90% of the time?
financial publications print articles from sources their customers think are reliable, and that's always people in industry who simultaneously have a conflict of interest LMAO
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post 1642440573 07-08-2021, 04:54 PM
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Inflation is taxation without representation. The government knows that. this is why stimulus has become so popular with politicians. It’s being sold to us as help, when in reality it’s tremendous taxation in order to pay for all of the spending they want to do.

The Biden administration has created socialism through this process. If you think things are going back to normal, you are sadly mistaken. Biden administration is transferring wealth in an attempt to equalize outcome. In reality, all he did was transfer wealth from the middle and lower class to the upper class. He’s making the rich richer and the poor poor, which is the forte of liberal policies. Liberals will never understand economics, because they fail to understand human nature itself. People will exploit whatever they are given, and those that are the best at exploiting the system will become rich, while those who are the worst at exploiting the system will become more dependent and more poor.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
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post 1642440583 07-08-2021, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted By quadfecta⏩
only people it effects is the people who panic sell now buying into the FUD, and people without enough liquid capital to buy the dip if it comes, like so many people do during stock market dips

the housing market is one of the most secure long term investments one can make simply because its a bet on population growth and demand for homes in prime RE areas, but that much is common sense
but sales dropped....
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post 1642440933 07-08-2021, 05:00 PM
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Production is down severely, export is down severely, imports are up dramatically, the cost of imports are up dramatically, the amount of money in circulation is up dramatically. This is the result of printing money and shutting down the economy. This is how you fatally crush an economy.

This was the economic reset everyone was voting for. No one’s fault but whoever voted for Biden. Y’all better be prepared, because it’s just going to keep getting worse. This is not just a recession, we very well could be headed to a Great Depression. When Trump said that Biden is going to destroy the country, he was not just talking out of his ass. That’s literally what they are trying to do. “Build back better“ was rhetoric for “we are going to restructure the United States into a socialist and fascist country with emphasis on destroying whites…”. Biden does not realize that he is being played by black supremacists
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
Hayek and Mises were right; they're all socialists.
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post 1642441243 07-08-2021, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
but sales dropped....
people are less likely to buy/sell homes in times of economic uncertainty

I never said the housing market crash FUD was going to inevitably lead to an uptick in people unloading mortgages
post 1642441443 07-08-2021, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
"On June 25, 2020, FDIC officials said the agency will loosen the restrictions of the Volcker Rule, allowing banks to more easily make large investments into venture capital and similar funds."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volcker-rule.asp
In addition, the banks will not have to set aside as much cash for derivatives trades between different units of the same firm. That requirement had been put in place in the original rule to make sure that if speculative derivative bets went wrong, banks wouldn't get wiped out. The loosening of those requirements could free up billions of dollars in capital for the industry.

but they will still need to keep capital on hand, this is not 2008 all over again, anyone that works in the financial services industry gets this, are there bubbles right now sure, housing is just frothy atm as ole greenspan liked to say. the fact that 65.6% of Americans own their home tells you everything you need to know, rentcells will stay mad, and due to the magical power of leverage propertycells get wealthy.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...sign/pinto.pdf
post 1642441483 07-08-2021, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
Cliffs

Recession is here.
Could be worse than 2008.
Fuel and food to Skyrocket.
Americans begin to realize they are effectively paying 50-60% of their income to Taxes
Distorted WFH polices
The US in general just isn't an efficient economic power anymore. Basically like communism has to find bull**** jobs for 50% of the population.

Adjust Accordingly.

Just ****ing lol if you spent 500k on a 3 bedder in Texas or Florida (Not Miami)
I paid 339 for a 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath 3300sqft new construction in Texas. Jake's on you, brah.
Wort ew in th wold.
post 1642441673 07-08-2021, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted By ClivesTriceps⏩
I paid 339 for a 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath 3300sqft new construction in Texas. Jake's on you, brah.
That’s roughly about the same price in SE Michigan too!!


Edit: bro… you gotta send me your leg regimen.
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post 1642442123 07-08-2021, 05:19 PM
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It's stupid how once u buy ur house u still gotta pay yearly property tax forever smh. The price range of the house I'm looking at. Property tax will be like 1k a month alone.
post 1642442473 07-08-2021, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted By Lifter4ever34⏩
LOL. People have lots of wealth?? Nah - people have lots of stupidity watching countless reruns of "Flip This House" dreaming of becoming an overnight millionaire. I wish I could show the ads of companies offering mortgages with no credit check. 2021.

I cannot for the life of me understand a person taking on massive debt for something as critical as the roof over your head to live these TV lifestyles, eating roman noodles so they can tell/show everyone about the "magnificent" home they just bought. It's just senseless.

I took full advantage of hysteria and stupidity of 2009 and bought (and paid off) a 3bedroom home. I've traveled all over the world and sip on wine laughing at the stupidity of the masses.
There are a lot of losers. But there are also a lot of people that are thriving and have their schit together. Most of my younger coworkers that are 25 or older all own homes and are married/in LTR. They don't seem to be stretched too thin on the house as most are also driving pretty decent trucks and their wives SUVs.


I don't know anyone that's 28 or older that's renting.


Originally Posted By nikonD70s⏩
It's stupid how once u buy ur house u still gotta pay yearly property tax forever smh. The price range of the house I'm looking at. Property tax will be like 1k a month alone.
Renters pay property taxes too.
post 1642445813 07-08-2021, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted By 5x10⏩
so even though the demand for RE in Texas is through the roof, your saying the crash will be worse than 08 , even though current lending requirements are much more strict?

Lmao
Yeah, I don't think so.
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
Interest rate hikes are going to be the trigger that blows this whole thing up, and everyone knows it. Stocks have 20% to correct immediately, RE paper prices fall in line with rate increases, and zombie corporations will fail once they actually have to pay interest on their new debt.

The US is currently in a liquidity trap... limitless money printer dollars don't even stimulate the market any more. The Fed can no longer drive the market up at this point. So the only direction I can see things heading from here is down. Just depends on how long and hot JPow lets inflation burn first and if an underlying market weakness turns a correction into a collapse.
I guess we'll see. From the Fed minutes released today it sounded like there is some conflict within the Fed re:cutting MBS or Treasury purchases more quickly. Maybe they can stop buying MBS and cool down real estate while reducing their other purchases more gradually and going very lightly with increasing the prime rate.
Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
The economy never recovered from 1999. Stocks have been flat for 20 years once you factor in inflation.

I will keep posting this graph until the sun explodes. The S&P 500 doesn't actually grow 7% every year, the govt borrows debt from you and inflates it 7% every year. The post 2000 American economy is a giant Fed-engineered shell game.



https://www.isabelnet.com/valuation-...-money-supply/
No real growth since the 60s IIRC. Abandoned the gold standard in the early 70s and playing games since.
Originally Posted By Contribution05⏩
Something is just not adding up for me. We had a pandemic, the economy slowed down, high rate of unemployment, yet across the board all over the country there is drastically more demand than there is supply for houses?
The Fed has been shoveling cash into real estate by purchasing large amounts of Mortgage Backed Securities.
Since the COVID pandemic hit, the Fed has dramatically increased its purchases of MBS. In fact, the Fed trading desk is currently instructed to buy $40 billion of MBS a month. In 2008, the main reason to start buying these assets was to keep the housing market from totally collapsing and taking the economy down with it. And in the late autumn of 2012, the Fed even launched ‘QE3’ to raise housing prices by committing to purchasing $85 billion of MBS every month--this is probably why the housing markets finally recovered in 2014. But why is the Fed buying so much MBS now?

The answer is, basically, to keep new money flowing into the economy so that banks and people continue to have access to cheap credit. When the Fed creates money to buy MBS (or any other asset) off the market, it is essentially replacing an unspendable, illiquid asset (in this case, the MBS) with something spendable and liquid (money). The idea is that this money will then be lent out by banks to people and businesses, who will use it to produce and consume and keep our economy running.
And interest rates are low.



And there are more investors gobbling up housing as a hedge against inflation and source of cash flow/rents.
After three straight quarters of declines, home purchases by investors rose 2.7% year over year in the first quarter of 2021, marking the first period of growth since the COVID-19 pandemic began, per a new study from Redfin.

Looking to take advantage of the hot housing market and a soaring stock market, investors bought about 1 of every 7 U.S. homes in the first quarter — up from the prior three quarters, in which they bought closer to 1 in 10 homes.

Investor purchases of single-family homes rose 4.8% year over year in the first quarter, outpacing growth in every other property type. They also still have the biggest market share in the multifamily sector, buying 25.8% of multifamily properties that sold in the U.S. during the first quarter.
And we already had a lack of housing stock.
Growth in housing inventory has slowed over the past decade in the aftermath of the 2008 housing crisis, creating an “underbuilding gap” of 5.5 million to 6.8 million housing units across the country since 2001, according a recent report from the National Association of Realtors.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/07/us-h...rison-ceo.html
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post 1642446733 07-08-2021, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
Production is down severely, export is down severely, imports are up dramatically, the cost of imports are up dramatically, the amount of money in circulation is up dramatically. This is the result of printing money and shutting down the economy. This is how you fatally crush an economy.

This was the economic reset everyone was voting for. No one’s fault but whoever voted for Biden. Y’all better be prepared, because it’s just going to keep getting worse. This is not just a recession, we very well could be headed to a Great Depression. When Trump said that Biden is going to destroy the country, he was not just talking out of his ass. That’s literally what they are trying to do. “Build back better“ was rhetoric for “we are going to restructure the United States into a socialist and fascist country with emphasis on destroying whites…”. Biden does not realize that he is being played by black supremacists
It ain’t black supremacists pulling those strings my ****
Coincel
Florida crew (lol at coldcels)
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