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Forum » $$Analysts and Math People: Could this guy be right? $1 Million Prize
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Thread: $$Analysts and Math People: Could this guy be right? $1 Million Prize

post 1644936273 08-14-2021, 11:53 AM
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$$Analysts and Math People: Could this guy be right? $1 Million Prize

Ran into these two posts today by a man attempting to calculate vaccine related deaths.

On the one hand I don't believe that governments are being thorough or transparent about this issue. After the CDC removed 3,000 reported deaths from VAERS because "oops" I trust them even less than before.

On the other hand I know that people can be prone to bias and backwards fitting data to reach a preferred conclusion.
In Part I,I examined the first 30 days of vaccination programs throughout Europe, showing an estimated 1018 deaths per million doses(not even people---doses) of COVID-19 vaccines administered, judging by excess deaths compared to a starting baseline based on case fatality rates (CFRs).After a quick, but seemingly reasonable adjustment, I estimated 200 to 500 deaths per million doses delivered---based solely on deaths seemingly categorized as COVID-19 deaths.This would suggest, based on 4 billion doses already administered throughout the world, that 800,000 to 2,000,000 of the COVID-19 deaths recorded are actually vaccine-induced deaths.
There are lots of number and charts and explanations. Talk about throwing out outliers to smooth the data and such.

https://roundingtheearth.substack.co...uced-mortality

https://roundingtheearth.substack.co...-mortality-e07

If you are an analyst/number person do his methods seem sound, or nah? Leaving aside GIGO which is beyond controlling.

That number seems very high.

Meanwhile:
Israel — According to a report by the Israeli People Committee, a civilian body of health experts, “there has never been a vaccine that has harmed as many people.” For example, Israeli data show boys and men between the ages of 16 and 24 who have been vaccinated have 25 times the rate of myocarditis (heart inflammation) than normal.
ETA:

So I went on to the next post in the series and it appears there is now a research grant on offer for anyone who can prove this man's theory is wrong.



https://roundingtheearth.substack.co...-mortality-92b
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post 1644936523 08-14-2021, 11:57 AM
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didn't read kayta.
post 1644936673 08-14-2021, 12:01 PM
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Is he Jewish?
post 1644936753 08-14-2021, 12:04 PM
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post 1644936773 08-14-2021, 12:04 PM
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Based on brief look at it, he is correlating excess deaths to the vaccine.

So I'll just say no, he is not correct.
post 1644936783 08-14-2021, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted By messomi⏩
didn't read kayta.


lol

cliffs:

- guy claims large number of vax related deaths
- says vax deaths being reported as COVID deaths
- says some countries have higher COVID cases/deaths after vaccine rollout
The removal of India has the following effects:

Post-vaccination CFR jumps to 2.24% while pre-vaccination CFR gets slightly larger (1.61%).

The scaling factor for daily COVID deaths jumps to 4.35, meaning the 22 nations see 335% more COVID deaths since vaccination began.

The number of excess deaths per million doses drops a bit to 363, quite in the middle of the range we established from the European data set.
Curious if there is any merit or if he is full of it.
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post 1644936893 08-14-2021, 12:08 PM
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I do not think you can just compare vaccine administration with coronavirus deaths to determine the vaccine caused the coronavirus death.

People might seek vaccines during high risk times.
post 1644937033 08-14-2021, 12:11 PM
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Short answer: No, this guy is not correct.
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post 1644937553 08-14-2021, 12:26 PM
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Great analysis,
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post 1644941603 08-14-2021, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted By Soonerjohn⏩
Based on brief look at it, he is correlating excess deaths to the vaccine.

So I'll just say no, he is not correct.
Huh, I was under the impression he was looking specifically at deaths attributed to COVID-19? Maybe I misread?
Originally Posted By mesobuild⏩
I do not think you can just compare vaccine administration with coronavirus deaths to determine the vaccine caused the coronavirus death.

People might seek vaccines during high risk times.
That I can follow. Kind of like the UK reports with "vaccinated over 50" showing higher numbers for hospitalization/death than "unvaccinated over 50". It's definitely notable and something to watch, but there could be multiple contributing factors.
Originally Posted By BearyManilowe⏩
Short answer: No, this guy is not correct.
Can I get a *little* longer answer?
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post 1644942913 08-14-2021, 02:00 PM
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I don't think it's possible to calculate the vaccine deaths based on covid deaths, all you can say is that it is suspicious that the CFR increases and the deaths/cases spike in the majority of countries in the time frame after the vaccine rollouts. This could still be down to coincidence and seasonality though.

It's not impossible that this is true though. Even in my country following the rollout there were far more elderly who died after taking the vaccine than died of covid in the same time period (around 3 weeks). There were a few articles in the newspapers saying that even though they had gotten side effects the deaths could still not be attributed to the vaccine, then it was never really brought up again. There was also a study looking at these cases that attributed around 10% of these early deaths to the vaccine, but I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was much higher. These are very frail people and it doesn't take much to push them over the edge.
post 1644943043 08-14-2021, 02:03 PM
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Looks like he's taking a proportion from an early study and applying to the number of people vaccinated thusfar.


My first critique is whether his conclusion was normalized against how many vaccinated people would have died from covid.
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post 1644950043 08-14-2021, 04:15 PM
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I don't think any publicly available data can really be used to determine vaccine death and injury rates. Those numbers are not being collected and therefore will never be available. The ideal situation for scientific study would to have a large number of people who get vaccinated and an equally large number of people who do not get vaccinated then test them all weekly for covid and see what rates of issues like myocarditis, covid infections, non-covid flu-like symptoms, death, etc pop up for each group them compare. If the unvaxxed group has like 5 cases of myocarditis and the vaxxed group has a thousand that'd be pretty clear cut evidence that the vaxx is harmful.

The reason they don't do this is simple: there's a great chance that the vaccine is hurting people and not really protecting them against covid or covid transmission, plus the study would be expensive. Much better for profits to avoid studies or even accurate data collection entirely and keep paying the media and politicians to generate fear of covid and hatred of the non-believers.
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post 1644950513 08-14-2021, 04:22 PM
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i agree
something doesnt
add up
Spoiler!
post 1644951713 08-14-2021, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted By Azure84⏩
I don't think it's possible to calculate the vaccine deaths based on covid deaths, all you can say is that it is suspicious that the CFR increases and the deaths/cases spike in the majority of countries in the time frame after the vaccine rollouts. This could still be down to coincidence and seasonality though.

It's not impossible that this is true though. Even in my country following the rollout there were far more elderly who died after taking the vaccine than died of covid in the same time period (around 3 weeks). There were a few articles in the newspapers saying that even though they had gotten side effects the deaths could still not be attributed to the vaccine, then it was never really brought up again. There was also a study looking at these cases that attributed around 10% of these early deaths to the vaccine, but I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was much higher. These are very frail people and it doesn't take much to push them over the edge.
I could see that for the very medically fragile. I could swear I actually saw something at one point about the "frail elderly" which said they didn't recommend that group be vaccinated. Might even have been a contraindications for vaccination piece that I shared here around 6 weeks ago roughly.
Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Looks like he's taking a proportion from an early study and applying to the number of people vaccinated thusfar.


My first critique is whether his conclusion was normalized against how many vaccinated people would have died from covid.
Maybe you could ask him?

It looks like there is now $1 million prize available to an academic who can prove this guy is wrong.
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post 1644952103 08-14-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted By Kiop⏩
i agree
something doesnt
add up
Spoiler!
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post 1644952793 08-14-2021, 04:58 PM
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any "vaccinated" person that dies should be counted as a "vax" death
post 1644952933 08-14-2021, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted By Soonerjohn⏩
Based on brief look at it, he is correlating excess deaths to the vaccine.

So I'll just say no, he is not correct.
Seems like a pretty correct thing to do to me. Not really anything else that could be causing them.
post 1644952983 08-14-2021, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted By Anachron⏩
Chit, wincel is going to be rich.
He could move out and get his own place.

Part III is kind of a jaw dropper.

Comparing COVID vaccines to the H1N1 vaccine:
A trusted friend and scientist pointed out to me today that there was also such a reporting requirement for the H1N1 vaccine. While VAERS is still backlogged, and reports piling up,the COVID-19 vaccines already resulted in the following per dose scale factors (according to the same researcher) of reports relative to the H1N1 vaccine,which was itself considered among the more dangerous of vaccines.

Deaths: 35.1x

Life Threatening Events: 13.2x

Permanent Disability: 19.5x

Hospitalization: 13.5x

Emergency Room Visits: 18.2x

Serious Adverse Events: 14.8x

Not Serious Adverse Events: 14.9x

The H1N1 vaccines were several times deadlier, with similarly higher severe adverse events and hospitalizations than typical flu vaccines.
Scatterplot of vaccines and deaths:
The Ethical Skeptic also tweeted out this scatterplot showing no correlation between vaccine acceptance and performance based on vaccination use (meaning essentially zero net mortality benefit), though I have not had time to check the data. However, as Chris Martenson walks through, the result is consistent with Pfizer's six month mortality report. Take that as you will, but ES has been a source of high factual accuracy and solid reasoning in my experience, whether or not all the ES theories turn out to be correct.

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post 1644953883 08-14-2021, 05:16 PM
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> vaccine roll out at the peak of flu season
> sketchy vaers numbers
> death peaks and is attributed to massive spread and "the height of the flu season"

nothing to see here folks.
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