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Forum » Early VAERS Analysis Highlights
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Thread: Early VAERS Analysis Highlights

post 1646063683 08-30-2021, 07:19 PM
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Early VAERS Analysis Highlights

Will link the paper which was done in May and based just on data through April. I know VAERS is raw data and not confirmed cause>effect. This paper is an analysis of that data to look for trends and patterns. VAERS has been estimated to be way under reported with the most conservative estimate I have found being that what you see there should be multiplied X10 to get something more like what is actually happening.
ASerious or Severe Adverse Event [SAE]is defined as any adverse event that results in death, is life threatening, or places the participant at immediate risk of death from the event as it occurred, requires or prolongs hospitalization, causes persistent or significant disability or incapacity, results in congenital anomalies or birth defects, or is another condition which investigators judge to represent significant hazards. The VAERS handbook states that approximately 15% of reported AEs are classified as severe [average occurrence].

SAEs [for the mRNA vaccines] comprise 26% of all AEs, which is almost twice the estimate of SAEs documented in the VAERS handbook. Of all individuals having received the first dose who reported an SAE, 74% did so after receiving the first dose. Of the total population of VAERS reports, 79% were made after receiving the first dose.
So despite reports that a lot of people feel worse after the second dose at least as far as reporting goes the majority were after the first shot.
As of mid-April 2021, a total of4507 types of AEs have been reportedand 46163 VAERS IDs have been assigned. Interestingly,of the reports, 74% came from females. This is likely due to a higher proportion of females reporting AEs but could stem from females succumbing to AEs more often than males.

Characteristics of AE reports:

- 5% death
- 12% hospitalization
- 16% ER visit

- 18% cardiovascular
- 12% neurological
- 35% immunological
It is noted in the study that [at that time] immunological AEs were the one major category continuing to increase.



On Age Groups

Thehighest absolute number of events reported are for individuals between the ages of 30 and 40years of age [which account for 18% of all IDs],followed closely by individuals between the ages of 40 and 60 years of age[accounting for 17% in each age group, respectively].

Absolute numbers of VAERS-reported deaths grouped according to age group reveal that84% of individuals who were the subject of death reports were 70–90 years of age. The death data is in fact leftskewed toward the elderly in a statistically significant way whereby the absolute value of I is 1.15.

Thehospitalization spread is uniform over the age range, with 50% of reports made by individuals between the ages of 20 and 70. 43% of hospitalization reports were made by individuals between the ages of 70 and 90.Emergency doctor visit reports are even more uniformacross middle-aged age groups,with more than half of the reports [61%] made by individuals aged 20–60 years. Neither are the distributions for the hospitalizations nor the ER visits skewed by age in a statistically significant wayd.
Fairly sure at some point I have seen an analysis that stated the vaccine was net negative for the frail elderly which this might be supportive of.

[cont.]
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post 1646063863 08-30-2021, 07:22 PM
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bananas

its bananas

bananas
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post 1646064033 08-30-2021, 07:24 PM
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what
post 1646064343 08-30-2021, 07:29 PM
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Can't seem to paste in the rest. Wonkier than normal.

Link:
https://hbnshow.com/martie/radio/Rose.stats.pdf
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post 1646064363 08-30-2021, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
bananas

its bananas

bananas
You must comply.

Resistance is futile.

You will be vaccinated.

"Buy a man eat fish, the day, teach man, to lifetime." - Joe Biden

2022 New Year's Resolution: Randomly neg TheScapeGOAT for lulz.
post 1646064463 08-30-2021, 07:30 PM
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What about now:
Age Groups Cont.

A substantial proportion of individuals reported having cardiovascular, neurological and/or immunological events at 18%, 11% and 37%, respectively, of the total number of reports. In spite of the fact that individuals between the ages of 30 and 40 years comprise the largest subset of reports overall in the context of age grouping by decade,the highest frequency of cardiovascular reports were made by individuals between the ages of 20 and 30 years of age. The highest frequencies of events occur in young and middle-aged people in all three categories, and this might be because they are the most vaccinated in absolute number.Neurological events were reported at the highest frequency in individuals between the ages of 40 and 50 years old.

Anaphylactic events are reported with highest frequency in individuals between the ages
of 40 and 50 years old. The distribution of data is not skewed toward a specific age groupin
statistically significant way. Of the individuals who reported an anaphylactic reaction, 76% did so after receiving the first dose. This particular AE is interesting to examine from a causation point of view since most reactions of this nature are known to be caused by specific triggers.It has been reported that one such trigger, poly-ethylene glycol [PEG], is an ingredient in the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech products. It is also documented that polysorbate is an ingredient in the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine PF product, and individuals are advised against using it if a known allergy exists for polysorbate.
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post 1646064673 08-30-2021, 07:33 PM
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The FDA approved covid vaccines, pretty sure the scientists and doctors wouldn't have done that if it wasn't safe.
post 1646064693 08-30-2021, 07:33 PM
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People were more scared at the start of the pandemic and actually stayed indoors so the deaths were relatively lower than now as people are much more careless. Look at the actual case numbers vs reported. Reading and understanding statistics is hard lol.
post 1646064933 08-30-2021, 07:38 PM
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Is VAERS only for the states? or are these global numbers?
post 1646064983 08-30-2021, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted By ThisIsMyAlias⏩
The FDA approved covid vaccines, pretty sure the scientists and doctors wouldn't have done that if it wasn't safe.
Define safe and define effective.
post 1646065023 08-30-2021, 07:39 PM
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Original Ruckus
post 1646065073 08-30-2021, 07:40 PM
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If I can ever finish posting maybe the most interesting part is about the time relationship. The majority of AEs were within 48 hours of an injection.





ETA: Of ALL AEs not just Severe ones.
A causal effect means that a change in one variable leads to change in another variable. In the context of all the AEs, 70% of all individuals had onset of symptoms within 48 hours following first or second doses.
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post 1646065383 08-30-2021, 07:46 PM
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Originally Posted By beansieweansie⏩
Is VAERS only for the states? or are these global numbers?
VAERS is the system for the states. Yellow Card is for the UK and Euro-something for the EU.
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post 1646065673 08-30-2021, 07:51 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
If I can ever finish posting maybe the most interesting part is about the time relationship. The majority of AEs were within 48 hours of an injection.



I imagine there is some truth to that, but one aspect that would muddy the water is that the more time that goes by the less likely someone would be to attribute an event to the vaccine. For example if a 60 year old gets vaccinated then has a stroke three weeks later it’s much harder to attribute it to the vaccine(and it may actually have little to nothing to do with the vaccine…though at the same time it might). Whereas if they get vaccinated and stroke out 30 hours later it’s a lot more clear.
post 1646065723 08-30-2021, 07:51 PM
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Need them cliffs shawty. And more booty pics. I won’t be attracted to milfs forever...
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post 1646066663 08-30-2021, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted By ThisIsMyAlias⏩
The FDA approved covid vaccines, pretty sure the scientists and doctors wouldn't have done that if it wasn't safe.
trolling meant something back in my day
post 1646067043 08-30-2021, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted By ThisIsMyAlias⏩
The FDA approved covid vaccines, pretty sure the scientists and doctors wouldn't have done that if it wasn't safe.
lol
post 1646067153 08-30-2021, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted By jtaylor2010⏩
I imagine there is some truth to that, but one aspect that would muddy the water is that the more time that goes by the less likely someone would be to attribute an event to the vaccine. For example if a 60 year old gets vaccinated then has a stroke three weeks later it’s much harder to attribute it to the vaccine(and it may actually have little to nothing to do with the vaccine…though at the same time it might). Whereas if they get vaccinated and stroke out 30 hours later it’s a lot more clear.
That is part of what makes it seem so significant to me.

Whenever VAERS data is brought up in regard to the vaccine the common come back is that everything we see is "very rare" even though the lowest estimate I've seen says you should multiply what is reported in VAERS X10 due to under reporting AND that the VAERS data is correlated, but doesn't necessarily support causation.

If 70% are within 48 hours of vaccination the odds that some significant amount are in fact caused by the vaccine seems higher and harder to brush off.

Here I know we have seen plenty of anecdotes of deaths farther out from the time of vaccination, but if this pattern has continued [data through April] then I don't think those events are being captured often, if at all.
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post 1646067663 08-30-2021, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted By IronILLinois⏩
Need them cliffs shawty. And more booty pics. I won’t be attracted to milfs forever...


Attempted cliffs:

- Severe AEs are 26% and expected is only 15%
- Majority of AEs were after the first injection
- Except for Death majority of AEs are young and middle aged people
- Immunological AEs were still increasing
- 70% of AEs and 44% or more of ER/hospitalization/death occurred within 48 hours of vaccination
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post 1646068483 08-30-2021, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩


Attempted cliffs:

- Severe AEs are 26% and expected is only 15%
- Majority of AEs were after the first injection
- Except for Death majority of AEs are young and middle aged people
- Immunological AEs were still increasing
- 70% of AEs and 44% or more of ER/hospitalization/death occurred within 48 hours of vaccination
How many deaths are we up to? I thought I saw around 20k world wide
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post 1646069673 08-30-2021, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted By gixxer0.6g⏩
How many deaths are we up to? I thought I saw around 20k world wide
7k VAERS , way more world wide than 20k, I think Europe alone has 20k

ours are obviously being majorly under reported, surprise surprise
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post 1646070743 08-30-2021, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted By Jestbrah⏩
7k VAERS , way more world wide than 20k, I think Europe alone has 20k

ours are obviously being majorly under reported, surprise surprise
Then multiply by some amount. At least for VAERS...could be 35K.
“Adverse events from drugs and vaccines are common, but underreported.Although 25% of ambulatory patients experience an adverse drug event, less than 0.3% of all adverse drug events and 1-13% of serious events are reported to the Food and Drug Administration.

Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health. New surveillance methods for drug and vaccine adverse effects are needed. Barriers to reporting include a lack of clinician awareness, uncertainty about when and what to report, as well as the burdens of reporting: reporting is not part of clinicians’ usual workflow, takes time, and is duplicative. Proactive, spontaneous, automated adverse event reporting imbedded within EHRs and other information systems has the potential to speed the identification of problems with new drugs and more careful quantification of the risks of older drugs.”
https://rickjaffeesq.com/2021/02/19/...dverse-events/
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post 1646072443 08-30-2021, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted By MiscMathematician⏩
felt absolutely nothing from the first shot. barely sore arm for 24 hrs. so i'm good then?
Yeah, probably. At least for short term stuff. Whatever your total risk percentage was could be 70% less IF and IF and IF. You're the math guy.

Don't know about that third shot. Or ADE. Or any other potential long term effects.

Might be fine.
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post 1646140903 08-31-2021, 08:39 PM
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Bump it up
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