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Forum » PSA: Interest hike in 2022, ,housing crash incoming
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Thread: PSA: Interest hike in 2022, ,housing crash incoming

post 1652675513 12-16-2021, 06:37 PM
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PSA: Interest hike in 2022, ,housing crash incoming

My psychic powers predicts an interest rate hike and housing market crash in March 2022.....

That's right, boyos, you heard it here first.....


Get your shekels ready, it's time to scoop up some beach front property at pleb rates....

Everything I post is satire.
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post 1652675563 12-16-2021, 06:38 PM
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Lmao

You realise target interest rates are determined by central banks based on stated policy objectives right?

It’s not some exogenous variable in the economy?

What are they teaching kids in school these days, seriously I’d like to know
post 1652675713 12-16-2021, 06:41 PM
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standing by..
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post 1652675963 12-16-2021, 06:45 PM
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there would have to be a pretty darn big crash to get me to buy. Prices are so inflated right now.
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post 1652676083 12-16-2021, 06:46 PM
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You post this almost every month.

But I guess eventually you'll be right one of these days
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post 1652676173 12-16-2021, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted By Azzurri⏩
You post this almost every month.

But I guess eventually you'll be right one of these days
Bruh, I've been consistent, I predicted a cooling off period starting in September 2021, which came true.

March 2022 is the crash, get your shekels ready, mayne, we gonna scoop up some properties.....
Everything I post is satire.
Tricknology Grand Master.
post 1652676183 12-16-2021, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted By Azzurri⏩
You post this almost every month.

But I guess eventually you'll be right one of these days
Fortunes will have been made multiple times over in the intervening period while OP sits, waits, hopes, prays
Originally Posted By N0stradamus⏩
Bruh, I've been consistent, I predicted a cooling off period starting in September 2021, which came true.

March 2022 is the crash, get your shekels ready, mayne, we gonna scoop up some properties.....
How big is the crash going to be? What percentage reduction?

Screenshotting thread for the inevitable deletion
post 1652676483 12-16-2021, 06:53 PM
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Aware that there was a report that the Fed plans to stop buying every damn thing and also to increase the federal funds rate 3X in 2022 to stem inflation.

IDK if housing will "crash", but it might stall. Trying to get my house sold ASAP.
The majority of the Federal Reserve sees three interest rate hikes in 2022, according to the central bank’s so-called dot plot of projections.

Wednesday’s forecast showed 12 Federal Open Market Committee members expect at least three rate raises next year. Five members expect two rate hikes and one member expects one hike in 2022.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/the-...inflation.html

If the Fed stops buying loads of mortgage bonds and banks are holding them it seems reasonable to expect that may increase mortgage rates too.
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post 1652676563 12-16-2021, 06:56 PM
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What you see right is inflation and low interest rates combined with high demand from the printing press

There may be a correction but don’t expect 2008 all over again. I think.

Wait, what does this mean for the stock market? Tank too if housing goes down?
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post 1652676633 12-16-2021, 06:57 PM
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Don’t think so goyim

Last 6 times feds have raised interest rates house prices have gone UP as supply dries up
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post 1652676643 12-16-2021, 06:57 PM
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Originally Posted By TryingBB⏩
What you see right is inflation and low interest rates combined with high demand from the printing press

There may be a correction but don’t expect 2008 all over again. I think.

Wait, what does this mean for the stock market? Tank too if housing goes down?
Everything going down, boyo....
Everything I post is satire.
Tricknology Grand Master.
post 1652676653 12-16-2021, 06:57 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Aware that there was a report that the Fed plans to stop buying every damn thing and also to increase the federal funds rate 3X in 2022 to stem inflation.

IDK if housing will "crash", but it might stall.Trying to get my house sold ASAP.



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/the-...inflation.html

If the Fed stops buying loads of mortgage bonds and banks are holding them it seems reasonable to expect that may increase mortgage rates too.
How many houses do you have?

What’s your plan if house prices go up massively (even just in nominal terms)?
post 1652676673 12-16-2021, 06:58 PM
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Ask yourself, what will be good for the country? Then know Biden will do the opposite. Pretty easy to predict what will happen if you know why it happens.
post 1652676843 12-16-2021, 07:01 PM
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Still hoping and praying for a crash huh. Das not it mane
post 1652676963 12-16-2021, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted By moosik85⏩
Don’t think so goyim

Last 6 times feds have raised interest rates house prices have gone UP as supply dries up
You’ve got the direction of the change right but the causation reversed

Feds raise rates to reign in inflation. There will be a large and widespread recovery from Covid, overall demand will increase, hours worked will increase, economies will again start approaching the NAIRU (non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and prices -wages, fast food, rents and houses -will start increasing. Not in real terms, mind, but nominal.

Price increases will go above the feds target band at which point they’ll raise the target interest rate. But they won’t do it unless and until unemployment is down and wages are growing (I.e the “real” economy)

TLDR: the game is rigged but you can still win if you know the rules
post 1652677573 12-16-2021, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Aware that there was a report that the Fed plans to stop buying every damn thing and also to increase the federal funds rate 3X in 2022 to stem inflation.

IDK if housing will "crash", but it might stall. Trying to get my house sold ASAP.



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/the-...inflation.html

If the Fed stops buying loads of mortgage bonds and banks are holding them it seems reasonable to expect that may increase mortgage rates too.
Powell did NOT confirm the "3 interest rate hikes" next year, he "expects" the hikes to take place and get this, it will be a whooping .9% by the end of 2022....

Inflation is at 7% right now and they'll counter by increasing less than 1% by the end of next year.....

Smoke and mirrors, folks.
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post 1652677773 12-16-2021, 07:19 PM
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Ok brah you predicted the housing crisis. Now predict when I will die? When will I see the light.
post 1652677913 12-16-2021, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted By iabs⏩
Powell did NOT confirm the "3 interest rate hikes" next year, he "expects" the hikes to take place and get this, it will be a whooping .9% by the end of 2022....

Inflation is at 7% right now and they'll counter by increasing less than 1% by the end of next year.....

Smoke and mirrors, folks.
Is that headline or “underlying”? I reckon actually inflation could be much higher but they “look through” house prices and volatile commodities like petrol
post 1652677963 12-16-2021, 07:23 PM
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how is waiting for a 10% 'crash' after housing goes up 100% a smart idea?

time in the market > timing the market, but most people who are 'waiting for the crash' aren't serious anyway.
post 1652678373 12-16-2021, 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
How many houses do you have?

What’s your plan if house prices go up massively (even just in nominal terms)?
Just one. Prices have already gone up massively relative to my income.

I've had a lot of plans but they haven't worked out. Flying by the seat of my pants.
Originally Posted By iabs⏩
Powell did NOT confirm the "3 interest rate hikes" next year, he "expects" the hikes to take place and get this, it will be a whooping .9% by the end of 2022....

Inflation is at 7% right now and they'll counter by increasing less than 1% by the end of next year.....

Smoke and mirrors, folks.
I'm aware that increasing the interest rate substantively could trigger a whole other set of issues. I think that the Fed was trying to talk inflation down [transitory] and that they will actually do as little as possible with regard to rates.

That may not be so for cutting their purchases of mortgage bonds. That I think they can do.

Anyone have thoughts on the desirability of mortgage bonds based on mortgages with low fixed rates in a highly inflationary environment?

There is a poster in R&P who is also calling for a crash soon:
The markets are going to crash hard in 2022 and I would say early but it could come as soon as early 2023.

The market makers know this, the administration knows this and I know this.

This is why the administration is teeing up Jerome to take the fall.



They will act surprised but they won't be and I won't be.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/the-...inflation.html
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post 1652679393 12-16-2021, 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted By katya422⏩
Just one. Prices have already gone up massively relative to my income.

I've had a lot of plans but they haven't worked out. Flying by the seat of my pants.
Ok but you need somewhere to live

Are you going to try to rent?

Start over in a lower COL area?
post 1652679453 12-16-2021, 08:00 PM
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Good thing I’m buying a house right now…
See you tomorrow
post 1652679733 12-16-2021, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted By iabs⏩
Powell did NOT confirm the "3 interest rate hikes" next year, he "expects" the hikes to take place and get this, it will be a whooping .9% by the end of 2022....

Inflation is at 7% right now and they'll counter by increasing less than 1% by the end of next year.....

Smoke and mirrors, folks.
Real inflation on things people actually need
Groceries, housing, cars is more like
15-20%

Feds intentionally lower interest rate by changing the metrics tracked
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post 1652679913 12-16-2021, 08:13 PM
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You mean crash back to 2019 levels? Because house owners are up about 40% since then
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post 1652680043 12-16-2021, 08:15 PM
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in on the end of the roaring 20scan’t wait to buy my place next year at 30%+ off
Posts are for fun, not to be taken seriously or as truth.

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post 1652680053 12-16-2021, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Lmao

You realise target interest rates are determined by central banks based on stated policy objectives right?

It’s not some exogenous variable in the economy?

What are they teaching kids in school these days, seriously I’d like to know
The ignorance of this guy as to what’s happening is astounding srs
post 1652680123 12-16-2021, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Ok but you need somewhere to live

Are you going to try to rent?

Start over in a lower COL area?
Details, details...

The prices for everything keep increasing so quickly. I've been looking at alternatives for a while. Right now the two least expensive options look to be living in an RV, or renting an apartment in a less expensive country.

When the news is at its gloomiest I revisit the idea of actually raising goats.
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post 1652681543 12-16-2021, 08:54 PM
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LOL

miscing with youtube on.

I guess google is looking out for me.

$135K cottage in Kentucky...needs some work, but it's not bad. And close to downtown where they have a Mexican restaurant. Maybe because I just asked someone via text last night where to get some good tamales for Christmas.

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post 1652682303 12-16-2021, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted By TryingBB⏩
Wait, what does this mean for the stock market? Tank too if housing goes down?
I think the market would take a hit, it gets volatile every time the fed even talks about tapering QE purchases in their meetings. So if they raise interest rates and put the brakes on the easy money policy I think there will be a tantrum in the stock market. I think the housing market will probably stay strong just due to lack of supply and if people see interest rates rising they are going to get FOMO on cheap interest and keep the madness going.
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post 1652682733 12-16-2021, 09:28 PM
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Originally Posted By gixxer0.6g⏩
You mean crash back to 2019 levels? Because house owners are up about 40% since then
lol it's crazy to think even late 2020 would be reasonable. I saved up enough for a down payment right as this whole thing took off. I can't bring myself to pay $400k for a house that was $200k 1 year ago. I don't care how low interest rates are, I'd rather pay off the $200k quickly and live frugally, than be saddled with $400k for the length of a mortgage, especially if there's any sort of correction.

The only way it makes sense to buy now is if the dollar completely crashes. I feel like I'm screwed either way.

Economically I don't understand it, people don't earn enough to sustain these prices, and if this is the implementation of Schwab's great reset, aren't we supposed to live in pods? Not rent out nice suburban homes? Who's gonna be able to afford the $4k+ a month rent on all those houses?
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