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LMAO “property market will crash when the interest rates rise”
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02-12-2022, 12:42 AM
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#1
- r32gojirra
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LMAO “property market will crash when the interest rates rise”
This article explains it pretty well:
-during the pandemic most households increased their savings
-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years
-central banks will raise interest rates in response to broader economic rebound, specifically wage growth
-prices went up 30% last year but I’ve warned people they still have a ways to go
Cliffs: yeah sure the housing market’s gonna crash any day now, you’ll finally be able to buy at a huge discount
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...-rba/?cs=14350
-during the pandemic most households increased their savings
-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years
-central banks will raise interest rates in response to broader economic rebound, specifically wage growth
-prices went up 30% last year but I’ve warned people they still have a ways to go
Cliffs: yeah sure the housing market’s gonna crash any day now, you’ll finally be able to buy at a huge discount
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...-rba/?cs=14350
02-12-2022, 12:54 AM
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#2
- GeezersPalace
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- GeezersPalace
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You're a clown and an embarrassment and a reminder of why I left Australia for greener pastors.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
02-12-2022, 12:57 AM
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#3
Will it still be a housing crash if everything else crashes with it?
The article is talking about housing projects too, like that’s the next best option. Housing projects on that scales requires more spending which means potentially more inflation.
I’m not sure anyone can predict this with certainty. I’m more concerned about a crack-up boom situation more than anything. When inflation rates go up too fast, interest rate increases could cause inflation to fly out of control; hyperinflation. As Hayek put it, Its like “grabbing a tiger by the tail”, or something to that affect. This will cause a recession or depression, which would effect more than just the housing market.
Fact is, the Fed here in the US is always taking action too late, too early, or not at all. Government intervention creates unpredictability and instability.
The article is talking about housing projects too, like that’s the next best option. Housing projects on that scales requires more spending which means potentially more inflation.
I’m not sure anyone can predict this with certainty. I’m more concerned about a crack-up boom situation more than anything. When inflation rates go up too fast, interest rate increases could cause inflation to fly out of control; hyperinflation. As Hayek put it, Its like “grabbing a tiger by the tail”, or something to that affect. This will cause a recession or depression, which would effect more than just the housing market.
Fact is, the Fed here in the US is always taking action too late, too early, or not at all. Government intervention creates unpredictability and instability.
One party system; Most Republicans are Democrats, but no Democrats are Republicans.
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02-12-2022, 01:09 AM
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#4
- DavidEaslea
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Cope.
A mans penis is worth two in the bush.
02-12-2022, 01:14 AM
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#5
- GeezersPalace
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Imagine living in f**king Canberra. Boyos this city is like living in Syracuse or Red Deer, Alberta.This article explains it pretty well:
-during the pandemic most households increased their savings
-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years
-central banks will raise interest rates in response to broader economic rebound, specifically wage growth
-prices went up 30% last year but I’ve warned people they still have a ways to go
Cliffs: yeah sure the housing market’s gonna crash any day now, you’ll finally be able to buy at a huge discount
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...-rba/?cs=14350
-during the pandemic most households increased their savings
-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years
-central banks will raise interest rates in response to broader economic rebound, specifically wage growth
-prices went up 30% last year but I’ve warned people they still have a ways to go
Cliffs: yeah sure the housing market’s gonna crash any day now, you’ll finally be able to buy at a huge discount
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...-rba/?cs=14350
02-12-2022, 01:22 AM
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#6
- r32gojirra
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- r32gojirra
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Originally Posted By Kraken⏩
Hyperinflation (at least very high inflation) is a very real riskWill it still be a housing crash if everything else crashes with it?
The article is talking about housing projects too, like that’s the next best option. Housing projects on that scales requires more spending which means potentially more inflation.
I’m not sure anyone can predict this with certainty. I’m more concerned about a crack-up boom situation more than anything. When inflation rates go up too fast, interest rate increases could cause inflation to fly out of control; hyperinflation. As Hayek put it, Its like “grabbing a tiger by the tail”, or something to that affect. This will cause a recession or depression, which would effect more than just the housing market.
Fact is, the Fed here in the US is always taking action too late, too early, or not at all. Government intervention creates unpredictability and instability.
The article is talking about housing projects too, like that’s the next best option. Housing projects on that scales requires more spending which means potentially more inflation.
I’m not sure anyone can predict this with certainty. I’m more concerned about a crack-up boom situation more than anything. When inflation rates go up too fast, interest rate increases could cause inflation to fly out of control; hyperinflation. As Hayek put it, Its like “grabbing a tiger by the tail”, or something to that affect. This will cause a recession or depression, which would effect more than just the housing market.
Fact is, the Fed here in the US is always taking action too late, too early, or not at all. Government intervention creates unpredictability and instability.
Luckily debts are in nominal dollars
02-12-2022, 01:23 AM
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#7
- Smithers115
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
like 50-60% of Americans live paycheque to paycheque, are aussies better at saving money?-during the pandemic most households increased their savings
-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years
-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years
Great MAGA King status
Bing Chilling
02-12-2022, 01:25 AM
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#8
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Most Americans wouldn’t last a month if they lost their jobs
02-12-2022, 02:05 AM
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#9
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
After weimar, the government simply said lol fuk you to debtors and revalued their debts in the new currencyHyperinflation (at least very high inflation) is a very real risk
Luckily debts are in nominal dollars
Luckily debts are in nominal dollars
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02-12-2022, 02:08 AM
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#10
- dontstopbelief
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A recession is possible but this doesn't necessarily mean a housing "crash" it'll likely lead to decreases in all asset prices, housing resilience has been amazing actually. I expect a slowdown in growth and probably some price consolidation but a crash is not something I see on the cards unless there is severe mortgage stress.
02-12-2022, 02:16 AM
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#11
- r32gojirra
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Originally Posted By Smithers115⏩
The article is only referencing those who have a mortgage, normally around 1/3 of adults (another 1/3 owning outright, and another 1/3 rentcucks)like 50-60% of Americans live paycheque to paycheque, are aussies better at saving money?
02-12-2022, 03:12 AM
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#12
- RiceBrah93
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You're a clown and an embarrassment and a reminder of why I left Australia for greener pastors.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
02-12-2022, 03:23 AM
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#13
02-12-2022, 03:37 AM
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#14
- wolfofmarkcity
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I don't know anything about Australia, but the stock market in the US, Europe and Asia has been very shaky the past few months and if we get into an actual depression it will be hard for real estate prices to keep going up.
I have realtor friends in the USA who talk about houses going up in value during the few weeks between application to keys handover. That's not sustainable.
I have realtor friends in the USA who talk about houses going up in value during the few weeks between application to keys handover. That's not sustainable.
02-12-2022, 03:38 AM
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#15
- RiceBrah93
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Originally Posted By LargePeter⏩
Pastors and priests are not the sameYou into priests you ****g0t?
02-12-2022, 06:03 AM
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#16
- Serenadium
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Lol at thinking house prices would crash any more than a 1 year low.
Australia has:
- A retarded surburban model of development (large POS, density + height restrictions). This creates supply pressures as the demand for housing outstrips how quickly our cities can build high density accommodation.
- Big back yard / big house for the kids meme becoming a dominant narrative among people raising a family.
- The ability to invest in property via SMSF.
- Negative gearing and will be allowed for the forseeable future.
- Implemented QE for the past several years. When the fed does open market operations, the money they print to buy 'bonds' ends up with the primary lenders (big banks). This money ends up being invested in assets like property.
- Banking that follows the modern 'frational reserve' model. A cash reserve rate of 10% expands the monetary supply artificially by 10x. Guess where that money ends up winding? - back into loans and property.
Property in Australia simply won't crash because the system is setup that way.
Perhaps there's a chance it can crash notionally, but not relative to other assets and general expenses - see wittgentstein's ruler.
Australia has:
- A retarded surburban model of development (large POS, density + height restrictions). This creates supply pressures as the demand for housing outstrips how quickly our cities can build high density accommodation.
- Big back yard / big house for the kids meme becoming a dominant narrative among people raising a family.
- The ability to invest in property via SMSF.
- Negative gearing and will be allowed for the forseeable future.
- Implemented QE for the past several years. When the fed does open market operations, the money they print to buy 'bonds' ends up with the primary lenders (big banks). This money ends up being invested in assets like property.
- Banking that follows the modern 'frational reserve' model. A cash reserve rate of 10% expands the monetary supply artificially by 10x. Guess where that money ends up winding? - back into loans and property.
Property in Australia simply won't crash because the system is setup that way.
Perhaps there's a chance it can crash notionally, but not relative to other assets and general expenses - see wittgentstein's ruler.
02-12-2022, 06:11 AM
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#17
- r32gojirra
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Originally Posted By wolfofmarkcity⏩
When the stock market gets shaky people start looking for what they perceive to be a safer asset class such as real estate and goldI don't know anything about Australia, but the stock market in the US, Europe and Asia has been very shaky the past few months and if we get into an actual depression it will be hard for real estate prices to keep going up.
I have realtor friends in the USA who talk about houses going up in value during the few weeks between application to keys handover. That's not sustainable.
I have realtor friends in the USA who talk about houses going up in value during the few weeks between application to keys handover. That's not sustainable.
What do you think could happen to plunge the world economy into a depression?
02-12-2022, 06:34 AM
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#18
- r32gojirra
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Originally Posted By LargePeter⏩
Yeah idk man US has been continually involved in wars since I’ve been aliveThe dumbocrats in the US finally getting that war with Russia they were supposed to start with Hilldog as POTUS
Guess it depends how many other countries get dragged in
But in any case nothing increases consumption (government spending) like an unwinnable war
02-12-2022, 06:50 AM
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#19
02-12-2022, 06:52 AM
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#20
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Originally Posted By tripod29⏩
From the article:"-instead of one years’ worth of mortgage payments saved, most households have more than 2 years"
Whatever you're smoking, I'll have a nice long puff. People who have mortgages are broke AF.
Whatever you're smoking, I'll have a nice long puff. People who have mortgages are broke AF.
“Three years ago the median borrower had a buffer the equivalent to one year's interest and mortgage repayments," Dr Lowe told the House of Representatives economics committee on Friday
Today the median borrower has a buffer of more than two years of mortgage payment. Households, by and large, have been pretty sensible."
-Governor of the RBA
02-12-2022, 06:57 AM
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#21
Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
I saw what the article said....but that statement has so broad and leaves out way too many variables to hold water for theFrom the article:
“Three years ago the median borrower had a buffer the equivalent to one year's interest and mortgage repayments," Dr Lowe told the House of Representatives economics committee on Friday
Today the median borrower has a buffer of more than two years of mortgage payment. Households, by and large, have been pretty sensible."
-Governor of the RBA
“Three years ago the median borrower had a buffer the equivalent to one year's interest and mortgage repayments," Dr Lowe told the House of Representatives economics committee on Friday
Today the median borrower has a buffer of more than two years of mortgage payment. Households, by and large, have been pretty sensible."
-Governor of the RBA
majority. The typical mortgagecel is worried if the price of gas goes up 10 cents bc they are broke. Sorry breh.
02-12-2022, 07:01 AM
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#22
- nothingshocking
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100% depends if wages rise with inflation, and I doubt they will.
02-12-2022, 07:01 AM
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#23
- r32gojirra
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Originally Posted By tripod29⏩
I quoted my data source what’s yoursI saw what the article said....but that statement has so broad and leaves out way too many variables to hold water for the
majority. The typical mortgagecel is worried if the price of gas goes up 10 cents bc they are broke. Sorry breh.
majority. The typical mortgagecel is worried if the price of gas goes up 10 cents bc they are broke. Sorry breh.
02-12-2022, 09:06 AM
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#24
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So at least in America, the Fed hasn't raised interest rates yet. They plan to in March, they may hike as soon as Monday in an emergency meeting, but the cost of borrowing has not actually increased yet. People buy payments, and those payments are about to increase.
Let's say mortgages go up by about 1%.... a $1M home on a 2.7% 30 year note has the same monthly payment as a $850k home on a 4.0% note. So there's a 15-ish percent RE price contraction on a minimal hike.
The other part of "people buy payments" is that spiking food and gasoline are going to start cutting into plebs' purchase budgets. The mortgage examples above assumed that some plebs were paying $4050 a month for their property... let's say inflation outruns their wages by about 10% and they can only afford $3600/mo in payments. Now they can only buy a $750k house on a 4% 30 year note with their budget
The Chinese and Blackrock don't care ofc because inflation can't eat up their limitless cash flow, but the total number of buyers for those old $850k prices starts shrinking. Market equilibrium probably reaches a lower value somewhere in between, call it $800k. That would be a clean 20% correction by EOY due to market forces we are seeing now.
Let's say mortgages go up by about 1%.... a $1M home on a 2.7% 30 year note has the same monthly payment as a $850k home on a 4.0% note. So there's a 15-ish percent RE price contraction on a minimal hike.
The other part of "people buy payments" is that spiking food and gasoline are going to start cutting into plebs' purchase budgets. The mortgage examples above assumed that some plebs were paying $4050 a month for their property... let's say inflation outruns their wages by about 10% and they can only afford $3600/mo in payments. Now they can only buy a $750k house on a 4% 30 year note with their budget
The Chinese and Blackrock don't care ofc because inflation can't eat up their limitless cash flow, but the total number of buyers for those old $850k prices starts shrinking. Market equilibrium probably reaches a lower value somewhere in between, call it $800k. That would be a clean 20% correction by EOY due to market forces we are seeing now.
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02-12-2022, 10:04 AM
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#25
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Lol @ rentcels srs
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02-12-2022, 10:26 PM
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You're a clown and an embarrassment and a reminder of why I left Australia for greener pastors.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
02-12-2022, 10:42 PM
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#27
- keels141
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- Property won't crash in Australia below the replacement cost of a house.
- Taxes make up ~40% of the cost of building a new house in Australia
- Builders won't build houses unless it's profitable to do so - so there will never be an oversupply of property.
Comparing house prices in Australia and the U.S is like comparing apples and oranges. A packet of smokes is $5 in the U.S, $30 in Australia...does that mean we have a cigarette bubble? No - it is due to government taxes.
The Australian government will not lower taxes on building new houses.
Also we have favourable demographics and net migration will be ramped up massively in the coming years. As alluded to above, household savings are great post-pandemic and the average household is 18 months ahead of repayments (due to savings in offset accounts).
It's going to be a bumpy ride ahead for stock and property markets, there's nowhere I would rather be than Australian residential property...it's a good inflation hedge and the mortgage liabilities will get inflated away if there is hyperinflation.
I am predicting a massive crash in the next few years due to central bank mismanagement and excessive money printing, it could get pretty ugly out there.
Property and precious metals are the safest place to be.
- Taxes make up ~40% of the cost of building a new house in Australia
- Builders won't build houses unless it's profitable to do so - so there will never be an oversupply of property.
Comparing house prices in Australia and the U.S is like comparing apples and oranges. A packet of smokes is $5 in the U.S, $30 in Australia...does that mean we have a cigarette bubble? No - it is due to government taxes.
The Australian government will not lower taxes on building new houses.
Also we have favourable demographics and net migration will be ramped up massively in the coming years. As alluded to above, household savings are great post-pandemic and the average household is 18 months ahead of repayments (due to savings in offset accounts).
It's going to be a bumpy ride ahead for stock and property markets, there's nowhere I would rather be than Australian residential property...it's a good inflation hedge and the mortgage liabilities will get inflated away if there is hyperinflation.
I am predicting a massive crash in the next few years due to central bank mismanagement and excessive money printing, it could get pretty ugly out there.
Property and precious metals are the safest place to be.
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02-12-2022, 10:48 PM
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#28
- headturner1
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Originally Posted By GeezersPalace⏩
Lol my man went in dry on op jflYou're a clown and an embarrassment and a reminder of why I left Australia for greener pastors.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
I've already identified that you are nothing but a plumber, despite the fact on here you act like big shot.
Things are different in America, Upfront yearly costs in property tax, higher costs than normal, keeping up with the jones on car leases, salaries in the south aren't that good, which is where the growth is.
100% the growth is from dodgy financing, and as for Australia, FATF which is a ARM of the US Government just warned Australia that too much dodgy chinese money was entering the property market, and threaten to put them on the Grey List, so banks are now doing KYC-CDD on loans, thats why all banks predict massive losses now because they know property in Australia is nothing but a global money laundering scam. You don't know this because you don't consult for alternative investments like I do, You fix radiators or some ****.
I looked at Zillow yesterday for Los Angeles, I saw price drops from 7-250k for January for most listings.
Go fix my pipes or do some plastering or some **** that's required, let the educated have this discussion.
Go check Zillow for yourself.
Consider yourself Mogged.
02-13-2022, 02:12 AM
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#29
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Originally Posted By keels141⏩
There's no reason it can't.- Property won't crash in Australia below the replacement cost of a house.
Reading about the UK in the 90s is interesting, yes it's a different market but we have similarly brain dead stamp duty and building restrictions
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/fo...1992-–-1995/
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02-13-2022, 02:44 AM
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#30
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property wont crash in australia because whoever is in federal government in australia will bail out the sector - if it looks like it will crash they will allow people to use their super for house deposits
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